CALPREPS.COM
Your source for national high school football scores, standings & ratings
2024 Orange Lutheran (Orange, CA) [84.4]
08/23 Beat Serra [Junipero] (Gardena, CA) 21-13 [opponent rating: 56] [performance: 71*]
08/30 Beat Rancho Cucamonga (CA) 45-14 [opponent rating: 41.2] [performance: 71.2**]
09/06 Beat St. Frances Academy (Baltimore, MD) 15-13 [opponent rating: 80.1] [performance: 95.1*]
09/13 Lost to Bishop Gorman (Las Vegas, NV) 55-28 [opponent rating: 87.4] [performance: 60.4]
09/21 Beat Sierra Canyon (Chatsworth, CA) 33-26 [opponent rating: 75.1] [performance: 90.1*]
10/04 Lost to St. John Bosco (Bellflower, CA) 28-24 [opponent rating: 86.7] [performance: 71.7*]
10/11 Beat JSerra (San Juan Capistrano, CA) 23-17 [opponent rating: 71.3] [performance: 86.3*]
10/18 Beat Santa Margarita (Rancho Santa Margarita, CA) 13-10 [opponent rating: 74.7] [performance: 89.7*]
10/25 Beat Servite (Anaheim, CA) 38-0 [opponent rating: 62.3] [performance: 92.3**]
11/01 Lost to Mater Dei (Santa Ana, CA) 38-14 [opponent rating: 102] [performance: 78]
11/15 Beat JSerra (San Juan Capistrano, CA) 42-20 [opponent rating: 71.3] [performance: 93.3] [1 playoffs]
TREND (COUNTING NON-GRAYED GAMES ONLY): SLIGHT UPWARD
UPCOMING:
11/22 vs St. John Bosco (Bellflower, CA) [opponent rating: 86.7] [1 playoffs] projection and percent chances to win: St. John Bosco (Bellflower, CA) 31 (61%) Orange Lutheran (Orange, CA) 26 (39%)
*Single game performance rating adjusted to 15 points above or below (depending upon win/loss) the rating of the opponent instead of using the true margin of victory. This is done in order to properly credit the win itself as being the most important thing-- short of doing that, a 1-point win would nearly be equal to a 1-point loss, and of course it is not. The actual number used for this, again currently 15, may fluctuate over time as it is derived by analyzing the margin of victory of every game played nationally and taking the 40th percentile of all those margins. (Capped at 15 to avoid early-season small sample size anomalies.)
**Single game performance rating may have been adjusted to 30 points above or below (depending upon win/loss) the rating of the opponent instead of using the true margin of victory. This is done so as to not reward teams for scheduling/running up the score against vastly inferior opponents. The actual number used for this, again currently 30, also may fluctuate over time as it is derived by analyzing the margin of victory of every game played nationally and taking the 63rd percentile of all those margins.
Please note that double-asterisked (and grayed out) games are considered to be less "true results" when ratings are created by the system because the margin of victory needed to be artificially decreased for the reasons mentioned above. As such, performances without the double-asterisk (truer results) are weighted much more heavily by the system in order to create the season rating for each team than are results involving mismatched teams. In other words, in cases where it appears a team is taking a hit to their rating simply because they played a very weak team...the hit indeed exists (and it's important that it does because we strongly believe in strength of schedule) but it is not as large as it appears at first glance. The rating for a team generally just ends up being roughly the average of those non-grayed out games.