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RUNNING-THE-TABLE

CALIFORNIA TEAMS WITH THE BEST STATISTICAL CHANCE TO GO UNDEFEATED AND UNTIED IN THE REGULAR SEASON

Explanation: Based on their "projection" power ratings (and home field advantage), each team is given a certain percent chance to win each of their known remaining games. These numbers are based on historical data; a team rated 7 points higher than another has won 82% of the time in the past, etc. The individual game percentages are then multiplied together to find the chance of "running the table". Eg: A team with two games remaining, each deemed 50% chances of winning has a 25% chance of winning both (.5 x .5 = .25)

Chances of winning for each difference in power ratings: 1 (53%), 2 (57%), 3 (58%), 4 (60%), 5 (61%), 6 (62%), 7 (65%), 8 (72%), 9 (73%), 10 (74%), 11 (75%), 12 (77%), 13 (80%), 14 (81%), 15 (84%), 16 (86%), 17 (87%), 18 (87%), 19 (88%), 20 (88%), 21 (90%), 22 (92%), 23 (93%), 24 (94%), 25 (95%), 26 (95%), 27 (96%), 28 (96%), 29 (97%), 30 (97%), 31 (97%), 32 (98%), 33 (98%), 34 (98%), 35 (98%), 36 and up (99%)

Note: "Projection" ratings are the ones we use to project game scores. They are very much like the other ratings seen on this site, except that recent results are weighted more heavily and the "politically correct" moderately-low cutoff point at which margin of victory is no longer counted is eliminated.

6/8/9-man teams must have played two games this season before being included in this chart. Any team playing less than a 6 game regular-season schedule will not be included. Historical ratings of the teams (including head-to-head history) are a very small factor in projections.

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RANK SCHOOL SECTION LEAGUE CHANCE RECORD PROJECTED RECORD RATING HIGHEST RATED REMAINING OPPONENT REMAINING GAMES (Chance Of Winning)
1 Portola (CA) Northern Cascade Valley 100% 10-0 10-0 -5 none none
2 Live Oak (Morgan Hill, CA) Central Coast Mount Hamilton 100% 9-0 9-0 24.4 none none
3 Angelou [Maya] (Los Angeles, CA) Los Angeles Southern 100% 10-0 10-0 -12.5 none none
4 Hayfork (CA) Northern California - Division II (8 Man) 100% 10-0 10-0 30 none none
5 Tustin (CA) Southern Empire 100% 10-0 10-0 50.4 none none
6 Carlsbad (CA) San Diego Avocado 100% 10-0 10-0 64.6 none none
7 Woodland Christian (Woodland, CA) Sac-Joaquin Sacramento Metro 100% 10-0 10-0 33.1 none none
8 Serra [Junipero] (San Mateo, CA) Central Coast West Catholic 100% 10-0 10-0 78.7 none none
9 Chino (CA) Southern Sierra 100% 10-0 10-0 23.9 none none
10 New Designs University Park (Los Angeles, CA) Los Angeles City (8 Man) 100% 8-0 8-0 -15.3 none none
11 Sierra Canyon (Chatsworth, CA) Southern Mission 100% 10-0 10-0 90.2 none none
12 Lincoln [Abraham] (San Diego, CA) San Diego Western 100% 10-0 10-0 71.5 none none
13 Colusa (CA) Northern Sacramento Valley 100% 10-0 10-0 18.1 none none
14 Fresno Christian (Fresno, CA) Central Central Sierra (8 Man) 100% 10-0 10-0 55 none none
15 Pittsburg (CA) North Coast Bay Valley 100% 10-0 10-0 66.1 none none
16 Palos Verdes (Palos Verdes Estates, CA) Southern Bay 100% 10-0 10-0 61.5 none none
17 San Marin (Novato, CA) North Coast Marin County 100% 10-0 10-0 44.3 none none
18 Tehachapi (CA) Central South Yosemite - Mountain 100% 10-0 10-0 32.6 none none
19 Granite Hills (El Cajon, CA) San Diego Grossmont - Hills 100% 10-0 10-0 64.6 none none
20 Atascadero (CA) Central Ocean 100% 10-0 10-0 10.2 none none
21 Shafter (CA) Central South Sequoia 100% 10-0 10-0 31.5 none none
22 Pacifica (Oxnard, CA) Southern Channel 100% 10-0 10-0 42.6 none none
23 Twelve Bridges (Lincoln, CA) Sac-Joaquin Pioneer Valley 100% 10-0 10-0 40.8 none none
24 Chadwick (Palos Verdes Peninsula, CA) Southern Prep (8 Man) 100% 8-0 8-0 64.4 none none
25 Carmel (CA) Central Coast Pacific Coast - Mission South 100% 10-0 10-0 20.6 none none
26 Clovis North (Fresno, CA) Central Tri-River 100% 10-0 10-0 64.2 none none
27 Frontier (Bakersfield, CA) Central Southwest Yosemite - River 100% 10-0 10-0 50.5 none none