2023 PROJECTION ACCURACY BREAKDOWN      2022 data


State9/159/229/2910/610/1310/2010/2711/311/1011/1711/2412/112/812/15TOTALS
Alabama166-25
(86.9%)
166-20
(89.2%)
139-24
(85.3%)
171-27
(86.4%)
163-25
(86.7%)
165-28
(85.5%)
165-26
(86.4%)
128-23
(84.8%)
93-17
(84.5%)
40-15
(72.7%)
18-8
(69.2%)
11-1
(91.7%)
5-2
(71.4%)
 1430-241
(85.6%)
Alaska8-2
(80%)
7-4
(63.6%)
8-2
(80%)
7-3
(70%)
4-1
(80%)
2-0
(100%)
        36-12
(75%)
Arizona75-15
(83.3%)
90-9
(90.9%)
84-12
(87.5%)
74-24
(75.5%)
53-8
(86.9%)
86-18
(82.7%)
86-21
(80.4%)
67-14
(82.7%)
27-5
(84.4%)
17-3
(85%)
6-4
(60%)
3-1
(75%)
  668-134
(83.3%)
Arkansas52-15
(77.6%)
80-7
(92%)
72-14
(83.7%)
72-14
(83.7%)
69-17
(80.2%)
74-12
(86%)
77-7
(91.7%)
72-14
(83.7%)
46-6
(88.5%)
27-5
(84.4%)
12-4
(75%)
6-2
(75%)
2-0
(100%)
 661-117
(85%)
California285-83
(77.4%)
286-77
(78.8%)
389-75
(83.8%)
385-80
(82.8%)
408-80
(83.6%)
406-84
(82.9%)
414-76
(84.5%)
250-78
(76.2%)
154-55
(73.7%)
75-32
(70.1%)
31-21
(59.6%)
19-8
(70.4%)
12-3
(80%)
 3114-752
(80.5%)
Colorado51-12
(81%)
72-13
(84.7%)
77-13
(85.6%)
82-12
(87.2%)
79-14
(84.9%)
81-12
(87.1%)
79-12
(86.8%)
40-10
(80%)
23-9
(71.9%)
15-1
(93.8%)
7-1
(87.5%)
2-1
(66.7%)
  608-110
(84.7%)
Connecticut22-6
(78.6%)
43-20
(68.3%)
52-7
(88.1%)
33-10
(76.7%)
31-2
(93.9%)
48-10
(82.8%)
55-11
(83.3%)
58-8
(87.9%)
51-6
(89.5%)
25-4
(86.2%)
45-11
(80.4%)
25-11
(69.4%)
5-1
(83.3%)
 493-107
(82.2%)
Delaware9-6
(60%)
15-3
(83.3%)
15-6
(71.4%)
17-5
(77.3%)
13-8
(61.9%)
19-3
(86.4%)
14-9
(60.9%)
19-3
(86.4%)
15-4
(78.9%)
9-3
(75%)
4-2
(66.7%)
3-0
(100%)
  152-52
(74.5%)
District of Columbia5-1
(83.3%)
6-1
(85.7%)
8-2
(80%)
6-0
(100%)
6-1
(85.7%)
5-1
(83.3%)
7-0
(100%)
7-1
(87.5%)
4-2
(66.7%)
3-0
(100%)
3-0
(100%)
1-0
(100%)
  61-9
(87.1%)
Florida139-25
(84.8%)
195-36
(84.4%)
211-31
(87.2%)
208-25
(89.3%)
214-32
(87%)
200-43
(82.3%)
215-35
(86%)
182-33
(84.7%)
91-16
(85%)
61-12
(83.6%)
24-12
(66.7%)
14-4
(77.8%)
5-4
(55.6%)
 1759-308
(85.1%)
Georgia161-19
(89.4%)
147-33
(81.7%)
148-37
(80%)
157-21
(88.2%)
125-21
(85.6%)
167-28
(85.6%)
174-32
(84.5%)
167-25
(87%)
116-21
(84.7%)
60-20
(75%)
26-13
(66.7%)
13-7
(65%)
 6-2
(75%)
1467-279
(84%)
Hawaii9-3
(75%)
19-1
(95%)
18-2
(90%)
15-1
(93.8%)
15-4
(78.9%)
13-1
(92.9%)
10-2
(83.3%)
3-2
(60%)
2-2
(50%)
6-0
(100%)
1-2
(33.3%)
   111-20
(84.7%)
Idaho30-7
(81.1%)
34-7
(82.9%)
36-4
(90%)
33-3
(91.7%)
35-2
(94.6%)
28-6
(82.4%)
19-2
(90.5%)
12-4
(75%)
5-3
(62.5%)
2-2
(50%)
    234-40
(85.4%)
Illinois184-44
(80.7%)
219-33
(86.9%)
220-35
(86.3%)
207-47
(81.5%)
211-34
(86.1%)
184-40
(82.1%)
109-20
(84.5%)
58-9
(86.6%)
28-8
(77.8%)
16-2
(88.9%)
6-3
(66.7%)
   1442-275
(84%)
Indiana123-35
(77.8%)
130-30
(81.3%)
140-21
(87%)
145-15
(90.6%)
132-20
(86.8%)
107-14
(88.4%)
81-14
(85.3%)
40-8
(83.3%)
18-6
(75%)
8-4
(66.7%)
4-2
(66.7%)
   928-169
(84.6%)
Iowa98-29
(77.2%)
107-22
(82.9%)
112-20
(84.8%)
112-19
(85.5%)
106-23
(82.2%)
87-11
(88.8%)
41-7
(85.4%)
17-7
(70.8%)
9-3
(75%)
5-1
(83.3%)
    694-142
(83%)
Kansas86-23
(78.9%)
96-15
(86.5%)
96-16
(85.7%)
95-14
(87.2%)
89-18
(83.2%)
94-16
(85.5%)
90-7
(92.8%)
34-15
(69.4%)
18-6
(75%)
8-4
(66.7%)
6-0
(100%)
   712-134
(84.2%)
Kentucky86-19
(81.9%)
90-14
(86.5%)
79-14
(84.9%)
61-13
(82.4%)
85-11
(88.5%)
94-15
(86.2%)
87-17
(83.7%)
81-10
(89%)
39-9
(81.3%)
22-2
(91.7%)
9-3
(75%)
6-0
(100%)
  739-127
(85.3%)
Louisiana105-25
(80.8%)
116-26
(81.7%)
113-26
(81.3%)
124-22
(84.9%)
122-24
(83.6%)
130-17
(88.4%)
121-24
(83.4%)
119-23
(83.8%)
65-15
(81.3%)
55-9
(85.9%)
27-5
(84.4%)
10-6
(62.5%)
4-4
(50%)
 1111-226
(83.1%)
Maine19-4
(82.6%)
18-5
(78.3%)
18-9
(66.7%)
18-6
(75%)
20-5
(80%)
22-3
(88%)
 18-3
(85.7%)
13-2
(86.7%)
1-3
(25%)
1-0
(100%)
   148-40
(78.7%)
Maryland35-7
(83.3%)
94-20
(82.5%)
100-19
(84%)
82-22
(78.8%)
77-31
(71.3%)
89-15
(85.6%)
90-15
(85.7%)
91-10
(90.1%)
45-14
(76.3%)
25-4
(86.2%)
11-3
(78.6%)
4-2
(66.7%)
  743-162
(82.1%)
Massachusetts60-18
(76.9%)
96-35
(73.3%)
102-30
(77.3%)
109-25
(81.3%)
106-27
(79.7%)
103-28
(78.6%)
117-17
(87.3%)
102-29
(77.9%)
91-33
(73.4%)
17-3
(85%)
101-24
(80.8%)
8-2
(80%)
  1012-271
(78.9%)
Michigan198-36
(84.6%)
207-33
(86.3%)
200-38
(84%)
208-34
(86%)
191-35
(84.5%)
180-43
(80.7%)
111-17
(86.7%)
49-15
(76.6%)
22-10
(68.8%)
14-2
(87.5%)
7-1
(87.5%)
   1387-264
(84%)
Minnesota101-30
(77.1%)
120-23
(83.9%)
114-23
(83.2%)
112-38
(74.7%)
117-25
(82.4%)
109-26
(80.7%)
166-22
(88.3%)
37-13
(74%)
21-3
(87.5%)
7-5
(58.3%)
4-2
(66.7%)
   908-210
(81.2%)
Mississippi100-31
(76.3%)
110-25
(81.5%)
96-19
(83.5%)
106-24
(81.5%)
108-20
(84.4%)
115-12
(90.6%)
89-22
(80.2%)
88-23
(79.3%)
48-16
(75%)
27-5
(84.4%)
9-5
(64.3%)
6-1
(85.7%)
  902-203
(81.6%)
Missouri108-33
(76.6%)
123-29
(80.9%)
130-23
(85%)
127-24
(84.1%)
130-20
(86.7%)
121-28
(81.2%)
95-12
(88.8%)
86-12
(87.8%)
40-8
(83.3%)
20-4
(83.3%)
10-3
(76.9%)
5-1
(83.3%)
  995-197
(83.5%)
Montana27-4
(87.1%)
22-8
(73.3%)
22-7
(75.9%)
24-7
(77.4%)
26-6
(81.3%)
28-3
(90.3%)
15-1
(93.8%)
10-2
(83.3%)
5-1
(83.3%)
2-1
(66.7%)
    181-40
(81.9%)
Nebraska49-10
(83.1%)
53-10
(84.1%)
58-6
(90.6%)
52-12
(81.3%)
56-8
(87.5%)
56-8
(87.5%)
20-12
(62.5%)
12-4
(75%)
6-2
(75%)
 4-0
(100%)
   366-72
(83.6%)
Nevada12-1
(92.3%)
25-9
(73.5%)
30-5
(85.7%)
33-3
(91.7%)
30-5
(85.7%)
29-6
(82.9%)
23-5
(82.1%)
18-4
(81.8%)
7-3
(70%)
2-0
(100%)
4-0
(100%)
   213-41
(83.9%)
New Hampshire18-4
(81.8%)
23-5
(82.1%)
17-12
(58.6%)
19-7
(73.1%)
26-2
(92.9%)
19-4
(82.6%)
25-2
(92.6%)
13-0
(100%)
7-1
(87.5%)
2-1
(66.7%)
2-0
(100%)
   171-38
(81.8%)
New Jersey73-19
(79.3%)
128-27
(82.6%)
128-23
(84.8%)
120-26
(82.2%)
123-18
(87.2%)
131-19
(87.3%)
82-19
(81.2%)
32-12
(72.7%)
17-9
(65.4%)
10-3
(76.9%)
22-6
(78.6%)
3-1
(75%)
  869-182
(82.7%)
New Mexico28-8
(77.8%)
29-10
(74.4%)
28-7
(80%)
28-2
(93.3%)
33-8
(80.5%)
37-7
(84.1%)
34-7
(82.9%)
16-3
(84.2%)
15-3
(83.3%)
7-2
(77.8%)
1-3
(25%)
   256-60
(81%)
New York81-17
(82.7%)
194-47
(80.5%)
192-43
(81.7%)
203-46
(81.5%)
200-49
(80.3%)
199-47
(80.9%)
203-27
(88.3%)
137-31
(81.5%)
65-18
(78.3%)
39-8
(83%)
21-3
(87.5%)
7-3
(70%)
  1541-339
(82%)
North Carolina137-32
(81.1%)
109-23
(82.6%)
168-29
(85.3%)
163-25
(86.7%)
167-23
(87.9%)
107-15
(87.7%)
150-39
(79.4%)
114-15
(88.4%)
61-8
(88.4%)
29-5
(85.3%)
10-6
(62.5%)
6-2
(75%)
4-0
(100%)
 1225-222
(84.7%)
North Dakota23-4
(85.2%)
22-5
(81.5%)
19-7
(73.1%)
28-0
(100%)
27-1
(96.4%)
18-1
(94.7%)
7-5
(58.3%)
4-2
(66.7%)
2-1
(66.7%)
     150-26
(85.2%)
Ohio280-55
(83.6%)
296-60
(83.1%)
293-61
(82.8%)
304-46
(86.9%)
310-48
(86.6%)
291-63
(82.2%)
192-28
(87.3%)
98-15
(86.7%)
43-13
(76.8%)
21-7
(75%)
11-3
(78.6%)
5-2
(71.4%)
  2144-401
(84.2%)
Oklahoma69-17
(80.2%)
103-22
(82.4%)
105-19
(84.7%)
110-17
(86.6%)
107-15
(87.7%)
112-12
(90.3%)
102-24
(81%)
109-14
(88.6%)
54-10
(84.4%)
29-7
(80.6%)
14-4
(77.8%)
5-4
(55.6%)
2-0
(100%)
 921-165
(84.8%)
Oregon54-9
(85.7%)
63-10
(86.3%)
58-10
(85.3%)
55-15
(78.6%)
64-7
(90.1%)
65-6
(91.5%)
60-7
(89.6%)
31-9
(77.5%)
18-2
(90%)
8-2
(80%)
5-0
(100%)
   481-77
(86.2%)
Pennsylvania193-44
(81.4%)
225-52
(81.2%)
240-39
(86%)
219-50
(81.4%)
235-39
(85.8%)
229-44
(83.9%)
204-34
(85.7%)
125-14
(89.9%)
79-14
(84.9%)
36-11
(76.6%)
33-9
(78.6%)
11-1
(91.7%)
4-1
(80%)
 1833-352
(83.9%)
Rhode Island6-8
(42.9%)
10-4
(71.4%)
10-5
(66.7%)
11-3
(78.6%)
14-6
(70%)
12-4
(75%)
13-1
(92.9%)
9-1
(90%)
5-3
(62.5%)
1-3
(25%)
16-5
(76.2%)
   107-43
(71.3%)
South Carolina86-27
(76.1%)
84-15
(84.8%)
96-9
(91.4%)
95-14
(87.2%)
93-13
(87.7%)
69-15
(82.1%)
101-9
(91.8%)
83-14
(85.6%)
35-13
(72.9%)
17-7
(70.8%)
7-3
(70%)
3-2
(60%)
  769-141
(84.5%)
South Dakota27-2
(93.1%)
29-1
(96.7%)
23-7
(76.7%)
20-5
(80%)
29-1
(96.7%)
22-2
(91.7%)
15-1
(93.8%)
6-2
(75%)
4-0
(100%)
     175-21
(89.3%)
Tennessee126-29
(81.3%)
142-27
(84%)
147-23
(86.5%)
116-16
(87.9%)
59-13
(81.9%)
145-26
(84.8%)
150-23
(86.7%)
98-12
(89.1%)
48-12
(80%)
24-6
(80%)
9-3
(75%)
7-2
(77.8%)
  1071-192
(84.8%)
Texas360-84
(81.1%)
441-94
(82.4%)
330-61
(84.4%)
461-78
(85.5%)
473-64
(88.1%)
467-82
(85.1%)
460-66
(87.5%)
439-83
(84.1%)
304-41
(88.1%)
151-28
(84.4%)
71-17
(80.7%)
35-10
(77.8%)
18-2
(90%)
8-2
(80%)
4018-712
(84.9%)
Utah46-6
(88.5%)
46-5
(90.2%)
45-5
(90%)
41-9
(82%)
37-8
(82.2%)
24-3
(88.9%)
31-5
(86.1%)
13-5
(72.2%)
7-2
(77.8%)
3-0
(100%)
    293-48
(85.9%)
Vermont9-2
(81.8%)
12-4
(75%)
13-2
(86.7%)
11-4
(73.3%)
13-2
(86.7%)
11-5
(68.8%)
9-2
(81.8%)
4-2
(66.7%)
1-2
(33.3%)
     83-25
(76.9%)
Virginia95-17
(84.8%)
103-30
(77.4%)
120-25
(82.8%)
133-21
(86.4%)
128-27
(82.6%)
137-20
(87.3%)
138-22
(86.3%)
124-26
(82.7%)
79-16
(83.2%)
38-13
(74.5%)
22-3
(88%)
11-1
(91.7%)
5-1
(83.3%)
 1133-222
(83.6%)
Washington93-24
(79.5%)
114-25
(82%)
101-35
(74.3%)
114-21
(84.4%)
109-26
(80.7%)
117-20
(85.4%)
107-19
(84.9%)
92-17
(84.4%)
25-10
(71.4%)
15-5
(75%)
7-3
(70%)
5-0
(100%)
  899-205
(81.4%)
West Virginia44-10
(81.5%)
42-11
(79.2%)
39-13
(75%)
45-7
(86.5%)
44-7
(86.3%)
45-11
(80.4%)
41-11
(78.8%)
46-6
(88.5%)
18-6
(75%)
9-3
(75%)
5-1
(83.3%)
3-0
(100%)
  381-86
(81.6%)
Wisconsin140-26
(84.3%)
144-30
(82.8%)
153-26
(85.5%)
155-22
(87.6%)
141-22
(86.5%)
94-16
(85.5%)
45-11
(80.4%)
20-8
(71.4%)
11-3
(78.6%)
5-2
(71.4%)
    908-166
(84.5%)
Wyoming17-2
(89.5%)
17-1
(94.4%)
12-6
(66.7%)
16-2
(88.9%)
17-1
(94.4%)
17-1
(94.4%)
7-4
(63.6%)
5-1
(83.3%)
2-1
(66.7%)
     110-19
(85.3%)
Prep Schools10-5
(66.7%)
26-4
(86.7%)
25-9
(73.5%)
22-12
(64.7%)
29-3
(90.6%)
24-8
(75%)
24-2
(92.3%)
20-5
(80%)
18-6
(75%)
4-4
(50%)
    202-58
(77.7%)
 
NATIONAL4317-997
(81.2%)
5099-1059
(82.8%)
5184-1000
(83.8%)
5330-990
(84.3%)
5266-920
(85.1%)
5194-949
(84.6%)
4753-810
(85.4%)
3491-698
(83.3%)
2017-478
(80.8%)
1014-263
(79.4%)
632-198
(76.1%)
237-75
(76%)
66-18
(78.6%)
14-4
(77.8%)
42614-8459
(83.4%)


Note: By comparison, blindly picking the team with the better record (and the home team in case of equal records), would have yielded the following percentage for the part of the season we pick:  69.4%
(In other words, anything up around 75-80% is pretty good, but it's important to understand that it's easy to pick 70% in regular-season high school football, due to the large number of mismatched games.)

out-of-state: 80.2% (in 736 games)