2021 PROJECTION ACCURACY BREAKDOWN      2020 data


State9/179/2410/110/810/1510/2210/2911/511/1211/1911/2612/312/1012/1712/2412/31TOTALS
Alabama160-28
(85.1%)
143-25
(85.1%)
169-26
(86.7%)
162-34
(82.7%)
172-25
(87.3%)
170-27
(86.3%)
129-26
(83.2%)
99-17
(85.3%)
48-10
(82.8%)
18-11
(62.1%)
10-2
(83.3%)
5-2
(71.4%)
    1285-233
(84.7%)
Alaska9-3
(75%)
8-1
(88.9%)
9-1
(90%)
6-2
(75%)
3-1
(75%)
1-0
(100%)
          36-8
(81.8%)
Arizona68-17
(80%)
77-17
(81.9%)
78-15
(83.9%)
72-14
(83.7%)
77-14
(84.6%)
81-10
(89%)
78-16
(83%)
59-12
(83.1%)
61-7
(89.7%)
19-9
(67.9%)
14-4
(77.8%)
7-1
(87.5%)
3-1
(75%)
1-0
(100%)
  695-137
(83.5%)
Arkansas40-8
(83.3%)
70-15
(82.4%)
75-11
(87.2%)
75-12
(86.2%)
76-13
(85.4%)
78-9
(89.7%)
74-13
(85.1%)
65-17
(79.3%)
53-2
(96.4%)
29-7
(80.6%)
15-3
(83.3%)
9-0
(100%)
3-0
(100%)
   662-110
(85.8%)
California325-74
(81.5%)
297-80
(78.8%)
367-85
(81.2%)
372-78
(82.7%)
381-84
(81.9%)
377-82
(82.1%)
391-72
(84.4%)
240-78
(75.5%)
164-47
(77.7%)
70-38
(64.8%)
37-17
(68.5%)
16-10
(61.5%)
15-0
(100%)
   3052-745
(80.4%)
Colorado72-20
(78.3%)
72-10
(87.8%)
65-17
(79.3%)
80-13
(86%)
78-16
(83%)
77-15
(83.7%)
76-16
(82.6%)
40-10
(80%)
29-3
(90.6%)
12-4
(75%)
3-5
(37.5%)
0-3
(0%)
    604-132
(82.1%)
Connecticut22-10
(68.8%)
32-20
(61.5%)
43-16
(72.9%)
26-7
(78.8%)
25-7
(78.1%)
53-8
(86.9%)
47-16
(74.6%)
51-9
(85%)
44-14
(75.9%)
31-3
(91.2%)
41-14
(74.5%)
22-2
(91.7%)
2-2
(50%)
   439-128
(77.4%)
Delaware11-4
(73.3%)
17-2
(89.5%)
19-3
(86.4%)
17-5
(77.3%)
15-5
(75%)
18-4
(81.8%)
17-1
(94.4%)
20-1
(95.2%)
18-2
(90%)
6-1
(85.7%)
10-2
(83.3%)
6-0
(100%)
3-0
(100%)
   177-30
(85.5%)
District of Columbia6-0
(100%)
5-0
(100%)
9-0
(100%)
7-0
(100%)
11-0
(100%)
7-0
(100%)
7-1
(87.5%)
6-0
(100%)
5-1
(83.3%)
1-0
(100%)
3-0
(100%)
1-0
(100%)
    68-2
(97.1%)
Florida176-42
(80.7%)
176-38
(82.2%)
207-34
(85.9%)
167-42
(79.9%)
201-37
(84.5%)
209-29
(87.8%)
208-34
(86%)
159-36
(81.5%)
86-10
(89.6%)
53-13
(80.3%)
26-6
(81.3%)
15-1
(93.8%)
1-2
(33.3%)
6-0
(100%)
  1690-324
(83.9%)
Georgia140-33
(80.9%)
126-39
(76.4%)
156-29
(84.3%)
139-28
(83.2%)
144-26
(84.7%)
168-29
(85.3%)
162-35
(82.2%)
164-25
(86.8%)
110-21
(84%)
59-17
(77.6%)
28-9
(75.7%)
17-2
(89.5%)
7-1
(87.5%)
0-1
(0%)
  1420-295
(82.8%)
Hawaii2-0
(100%)
1-1
(50%)
0-2
(0%)
1-0
(100%)
2-2
(50%)
2-3
(40%)
7-2
(77.8%)
14-3
(82.4%)
13-3
(81.3%)
12-4
(75%)
10-3
(76.9%)
9-2
(81.8%)
9-2
(81.8%)
4-1
(80%)
2-2
(50%)
1-0
(100%)
89-30
(74.8%)
Idaho35-9
(79.5%)
34-9
(79.1%)
33-4
(89.2%)
35-5
(87.5%)
28-12
(70%)
30-6
(83.3%)
15-3
(83.3%)
14-2
(87.5%)
6-2
(75%)
3-1
(75%)
      233-53
(81.5%)
Illinois181-49
(78.7%)
190-41
(82.3%)
184-45
(80.3%)
202-33
(86%)
207-25
(89.2%)
180-30
(85.7%)
115-14
(89.1%)
56-12
(82.4%)
27-8
(77.1%)
12-6
(66.7%)
8-1
(88.9%)
     1362-264
(83.8%)
Indiana116-32
(78.4%)
126-26
(82.9%)
136-21
(86.6%)
134-24
(84.8%)
124-22
(84.9%)
109-14
(88.6%)
80-14
(85.1%)
34-14
(70.8%)
17-7
(70.8%)
10-2
(83.3%)
5-1
(83.3%)
     891-177
(83.4%)
Iowa107-21
(83.6%)
113-15
(88.3%)
111-17
(86.7%)
104-23
(81.9%)
109-17
(86.5%)
87-15
(85.3%)
43-5
(89.6%)
19-5
(79.2%)
9-3
(75%)
5-1
(83.3%)
      707-122
(85.3%)
Kansas76-26
(74.5%)
98-11
(89.9%)
88-21
(80.7%)
88-23
(79.3%)
85-23
(78.7%)
88-23
(79.3%)
57-4
(93.4%)
34-15
(69.4%)
22-2
(91.7%)
10-2
(83.3%)
3-3
(50%)
     649-153
(80.9%)
Kentucky69-17
(80.2%)
72-16
(81.8%)
74-13
(85.1%)
67-9
(88.2%)
85-10
(89.5%)
89-10
(89.9%)
81-14
(85.3%)
85-9
(90.4%)
42-6
(87.5%)
21-3
(87.5%)
9-3
(75%)
3-3
(50%)
    697-113
(86%)
Louisiana87-27
(76.3%)
107-33
(76.4%)
102-34
(75%)
124-19
(86.7%)
121-20
(85.8%)
122-23
(84.1%)
115-25
(82.1%)
128-14
(90.1%)
80-11
(87.9%)
47-9
(83.9%)
22-6
(78.6%)
8-4
(66.7%)
4-3
(57.1%)
   1067-228
(82.4%)
Maine13-4
(76.5%)
10-2
(83.3%)
15-8
(65.2%)
18-4
(81.8%)
17-0
(100%)
17-4
(81%)
19-2
(90.5%)
10-2
(83.3%)
6-2
(75%)
3-1
(75%)
      128-29
(81.5%)
Maryland85-15
(85%)
83-16
(83.8%)
81-24
(77.1%)
80-15
(84.2%)
82-21
(79.6%)
80-22
(78.4%)
71-6
(92.2%)
85-7
(92.4%)
45-13
(77.6%)
20-9
(69%)
12-2
(85.7%)
5-2
(71.4%)
    729-152
(82.7%)
Massachusetts67-27
(71.3%)
90-30
(75%)
103-25
(80.5%)
100-28
(78.1%)
109-19
(85.2%)
112-15
(88.2%)
100-31
(76.3%)
108-23
(82.4%)
92-32
(74.2%)
13-9
(59.1%)
99-25
(79.8%)
5-5
(50%)
    998-269
(78.8%)
Michigan182-47
(79.5%)
192-37
(83.8%)
187-31
(85.8%)
187-39
(82.7%)
179-30
(85.6%)
164-37
(81.6%)
105-23
(82%)
48-16
(75%)
29-3
(90.6%)
11-5
(68.8%)
4-4
(50%)
     1288-272
(82.6%)
Minnesota114-28
(80.3%)
106-35
(75.2%)
115-25
(82.1%)
117-24
(83%)
116-25
(82.3%)
114-24
(82.6%)
158-32
(83.2%)
39-9
(81.3%)
21-3
(87.5%)
6-6
(50%)
5-1
(83.3%)
     911-212
(81.1%)
Mississippi90-31
(74.4%)
109-24
(82%)
113-22
(83.7%)
114-20
(85.1%)
106-29
(78.5%)
115-20
(85.2%)
99-19
(83.9%)
93-12
(88.6%)
45-11
(80.4%)
20-8
(71.4%)
9-3
(75%)
5-1
(83.3%)
    918-200
(82.1%)
Missouri120-22
(84.5%)
125-30
(80.6%)
130-24
(84.4%)
133-20
(86.9%)
123-26
(82.6%)
139-16
(89.7%)
110-18
(85.9%)
80-9
(89.9%)
34-10
(77.3%)
19-3
(86.4%)
9-2
(81.8%)
4-1
(80%)
    1026-181
(85%)
Montana28-2
(93.3%)
26-4
(86.7%)
25-3
(89.3%)
26-4
(86.7%)
25-5
(83.3%)
24-4
(85.7%)
11-5
(68.8%)
11-1
(91.7%)
5-1
(83.3%)
3-0
(100%)
      184-29
(86.4%)
Nebraska49-15
(76.6%)
54-11
(83.1%)
54-10
(84.4%)
55-9
(85.9%)
53-8
(86.9%)
58-6
(90.6%)
27-5
(84.4%)
11-5
(68.8%)
6-2
(75%)
 3-1
(75%)
     370-72
(83.7%)
Nevada26-6
(81.3%)
25-9
(73.5%)
28-6
(82.4%)
27-6
(81.8%)
28-3
(90.3%)
27-5
(84.4%)
17-3
(85%)
12-4
(75%)
6-2
(75%)
4-0
(100%)
      200-44
(82%)
New Hampshire16-6
(72.7%)
19-7
(73.1%)
24-3
(88.9%)
21-2
(91.3%)
21-2
(91.3%)
24-3
(88.9%)
23-5
(82.1%)
9-3
(75%)
5-1
(83.3%)
2-0
(100%)
      164-32
(83.7%)
New Jersey111-32
(77.6%)
121-36
(77.1%)
120-33
(78.4%)
123-25
(83.1%)
125-24
(83.9%)
110-21
(84%)
73-16
(82%)
100-24
(80.6%)
40-7
(85.1%)
18-5
(78.3%)
32-7
(82.1%)
5-2
(71.4%)
    978-232
(80.8%)
New Mexico32-7
(82.1%)
30-7
(81.1%)
34-3
(91.9%)
29-6
(82.9%)
33-3
(91.7%)
31-7
(81.6%)
26-4
(86.7%)
19-1
(95%)
15-3
(83.3%)
5-4
(55.6%)
4-0
(100%)
     258-45
(85.1%)
New York130-41
(76%)
166-41
(80.2%)
180-55
(76.6%)
208-36
(85.2%)
194-37
(84%)
192-43
(81.7%)
203-21
(90.6%)
111-21
(84.1%)
61-11
(84.7%)
28-8
(77.8%)
17-4
(81%)
4-1
(80%)
    1494-319
(82.4%)
North Carolina120-33
(78.4%)
121-32
(79.1%)
140-33
(80.9%)
126-26
(82.9%)
164-33
(83.2%)
156-34
(82.1%)
161-26
(86.1%)
107-20
(84.3%)
59-10
(85.5%)
20-14
(58.8%)
10-6
(62.5%)
6-2
(75%)
2-2
(50%)
   1192-271
(81.5%)
North Dakota22-5
(81.5%)
24-3
(88.9%)
21-5
(80.8%)
25-2
(92.6%)
23-4
(85.2%)
16-3
(84.2%)
11-1
(91.7%)
5-1
(83.3%)
1-2
(33.3%)
       148-26
(85.1%)
Ohio288-34
(89.4%)
288-39
(88.1%)
286-45
(86.4%)
283-49
(85.2%)
280-60
(82.4%)
285-59
(82.8%)
195-30
(86.7%)
93-19
(83%)
44-12
(78.6%)
19-9
(67.9%)
12-2
(85.7%)
4-3
(57.1%)
    2077-361
(85.2%)
Oklahoma71-17
(80.7%)
105-21
(83.3%)
111-14
(88.8%)
110-17
(86.6%)
109-14
(88.6%)
106-17
(86.2%)
106-18
(85.5%)
105-19
(84.7%)
53-11
(82.8%)
27-5
(84.4%)
12-2
(85.7%)
5-4
(55.6%)
1-1
(50%)
   921-160
(85.2%)
Oregon52-15
(77.6%)
57-16
(78.1%)
58-10
(85.3%)
57-8
(87.7%)
67-10
(87%)
62-12
(83.8%)
73-4
(94.8%)
42-6
(87.5%)
20-4
(83.3%)
9-3
(75%)
6-0
(100%)
0-1
(0%)
    503-89
(85%)
Pennsylvania189-56
(77.1%)
196-61
(76.3%)
202-53
(79.2%)
218-43
(83.5%)
230-31
(88.1%)
225-40
(84.9%)
195-44
(81.6%)
122-24
(83.6%)
71-21
(77.2%)
40-8
(83.3%)
29-8
(78.4%)
9-3
(75%)
4-2
(66.7%)
   1730-394
(81.5%)
Rhode Island11-2
(84.6%)
9-4
(69.2%)
14-2
(87.5%)
14-3
(82.4%)
14-4
(77.8%)
15-0
(100%)
17-1
(94.4%)
16-1
(94.1%)
8-1
(88.9%)
6-4
(60%)
17-1
(94.4%)
2-1
(66.7%)
    143-24
(85.6%)
South Carolina62-16
(79.5%)
63-20
(75.9%)
74-17
(81.3%)
65-13
(83.3%)
71-22
(76.3%)
74-17
(81.3%)
69-9
(88.5%)
79-10
(88.8%)
37-9
(80.4%)
17-6
(73.9%)
9-1
(90%)
4-1
(80%)
    624-141
(81.6%)
South Dakota24-6
(80%)
21-9
(70%)
23-6
(79.3%)
25-4
(86.2%)
27-4
(87.1%)
19-5
(79.2%)
10-6
(62.5%)
7-1
(87.5%)
3-1
(75%)
       159-42
(79.1%)
Tennessee130-23
(85%)
136-23
(85.5%)
137-24
(85.1%)
95-18
(84.1%)
98-12
(89.1%)
120-33
(78.4%)
133-28
(82.6%)
94-14
(87%)
52-8
(86.7%)
24-6
(80%)
9-3
(75%)
7-2
(77.8%)
    1035-194
(84.2%)
Texas356-102
(77.7%)
444-97
(82.1%)
332-62
(84.3%)
447-87
(83.7%)
453-75
(85.8%)
448-95
(82.5%)
465-75
(86.1%)
448-81
(84.7%)
282-61
(82.2%)
142-33
(81.1%)
72-17
(80.9%)
34-10
(77.3%)
14-6
(70%)
6-4
(60%)
  3943-805
(83%)
Utah39-12
(76.5%)
44-8
(84.6%)
39-12
(76.5%)
39-12
(76.5%)
36-5
(87.8%)
24-7
(77.4%)
26-6
(81.3%)
12-4
(75%)
7-1
(87.5%)
0-2
(0%)
      266-69
(79.4%)
Vermont10-3
(76.9%)
11-2
(84.6%)
10-4
(71.4%)
10-3
(76.9%)
9-6
(60%)
11-2
(84.6%)
10-2
(83.3%)
5-1
(83.3%)
2-1
(66.7%)
       78-24
(76.5%)
Virginia105-29
(78.4%)
104-24
(81.3%)
110-23
(82.7%)
117-27
(81.3%)
120-23
(83.9%)
130-16
(89%)
116-23
(83.5%)
120-22
(84.5%)
85-15
(85%)
38-13
(74.5%)
21-4
(84%)
11-1
(91.7%)
3-3
(50%)
   1080-223
(82.9%)
Washington85-27
(75.9%)
99-23
(81.1%)
110-17
(86.6%)
96-24
(80%)
97-28
(77.6%)
110-14
(88.7%)
109-14
(88.6%)
95-12
(88.8%)
31-5
(86.1%)
19-1
(95%)
9-1
(90%)
4-1
(80%)
 0-1
(0%)
  864-168
(83.7%)
West Virginia42-5
(89.4%)
31-12
(72.1%)
40-8
(83.3%)
39-10
(79.6%)
39-11
(78%)
46-11
(80.7%)
39-16
(70.9%)
40-10
(80%)
19-3
(86.4%)
11-1
(91.7%)
2-4
(33.3%)
1-2
(33.3%)
    349-93
(79%)
Wisconsin138-23
(85.7%)
128-38
(77.1%)
132-31
(81%)
147-25
(85.5%)
147-27
(84.5%)
99-15
(86.8%)
42-15
(73.7%)
21-7
(75%)
12-2
(85.7%)
6-1
(85.7%)
      872-184
(82.6%)
Wyoming15-4
(78.9%)
15-4
(78.9%)
14-5
(73.7%)
17-1
(94.4%)
14-5
(73.7%)
18-1
(94.7%)
11-1
(91.7%)
4-2
(66.7%)
3-0
(100%)
       111-23
(82.8%)
Prep Schools13-4
(76.5%)
20-6
(76.9%)
15-13
(53.6%)
24-7
(77.4%)
27-7
(79.4%)
26-7
(78.8%)
17-11
(60.7%)
28-6
(82.4%)
20-4
(83.3%)
5-2
(71.4%)
      195-67
(74.4%)
 
NATIONAL4455-1097
(80.2%)
4767-1117
(81%)
4958-1040
(82.7%)
5033-978
(83.7%)
5153-967
(84.2%)
5115-942
(84.4%)
4525-828
(84.5%)
3458-674
(83.7%)
2050-431
(82.6%)
953-296
(76.3%)
643-176
(78.5%)
232-73
(76.1%)
71-25
(74%)
16-6
(72.7%)
2-2
(50%)
1-0
(100%)
41432-8652
(82.7%)


Note: By comparison, blindly picking the team with the better record (and the home team in case of equal records), would have yielded the following percentage for the part of the season we pick:  69.5%
(In other words, anything up around 75-80% is pretty good, but it's important to understand that it's easy to pick 70% in regular-season high school football, due to the large number of mismatched games.)

out-of-state: 78.5% (in 661 games)

playoffs: 81.4% (in 8443 games)