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RUNNING-THE-TABLE

CALIFORNIA TEAMS WITH THE BEST STATISTICAL CHANCE TO GO UNDEFEATED AND UNTIED IN THE REGULAR SEASON

Explanation: Based on their "projection" power ratings (and home field advantage), each team is given a certain percent chance to win each of their known remaining games. These numbers are based on historical data; a team rated 7 points higher than another has won 82% of the time in the past, etc. The individual game percentages are then multiplied together to find the chance of "running the table". Eg: A team with two games remaining, each deemed 50% chances of winning has a 25% chance of winning both (.5 x .5 = .25)

Chances of winning for each difference in power ratings: 1 (54%), 2 (58%), 3 (62%), 4 (68%), 5 (74%), 6 (80%), 7 (82%), 8 (84%), 9 (85%), 10 (86%), 11 (87%), 12 (88%), 13 (89%), 14 (90%), 15 (91%), 16 (92%), 17 (93%), 18 (94%), 19 (95%), 20 (96%), 21 (97%), 22 (98%), 23 and up (99%)

Note: "Projection" ratings are the ones we use to project game scores. They are very much like the other ratings seen on this site, except that recent results are weighted more heavily and the "politically correct" moderately-low cutoff point at which margin of victory is no longer counted is eliminated.

6/8/9-man teams must have played two games this season before being included in this chart. Any team playing less than a 6 game regular-season schedule will not be included. Historical ratings of the teams (including head-to-head history) are a very small factor in projections.

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RANK SCHOOL SECTION LEAGUE CHANCE RECORD PROJECTED RECORD RATING HIGHEST RATED REMAINING OPPONENT REMAINING GAMES (Chance Of Winning)
1 Capistrano Valley (Mission Viejo, CA) Southern Sea View 100% 10-0 10-0 43.2 none none
2 Orestimba (Newman, CA) Sac-Joaquin Southern 100% 10-0 10-0 14.3 none none
3 Harker (San Jose, CA) North Coast Freelance 100% 9-0 9-0 12 none none
4 Caruthers (CA) Central West Sequoia 100% 9-0 9-0 11.6 none none
5 Big Valley (Bieber, CA) Northern California - North (8 Man) 100% 8-0 8-0 54.5 none none
6 Ramona (CA) San Diego Palomar 100% 10-0 10-0 43.2 none none
7 Animo Robinson [Jackie] (Los Angeles, CA) Los Angeles City (8 Man) 100% 9-0 9-0 44.6 none none
8 Yosemite (Oakhurst, CA) Central Freelance 100% 8-0 8-0 -0.2 none none
9 McClymonds (Oakland, CA) Oakland Oakland 100% 10-0 10-0 35.5 none none
10 Half Moon Bay (CA) Central Coast Peninsula - Bay 100% 10-0 10-0 41.4 none none
11 Charter Oak (Covina, CA) Southern Hacienda 100% 10-0 10-0 44.9 none none
12 Lompoc (CA) Southern Los Padres 100% 10-0 10-0 47.1 none none
13 East Nicolaus (Nicolaus, CA) Northern Mid-Valley 100% 10-0 10-0 25.8 none none
14 Santa Clarita Christian (Canyon Country, CA) Southern San Joaquin 100% 10-0 10-0 -5.5 none none
15 Tulare Union (Tulare, CA) Central East Yosemite 100% 10-0 10-0 49 none none
16 Strathmore (CA) Central East Sequoia 100% 10-0 10-0 14.8 none none
17 Lawndale (CA) Southern Ocean 100% 10-0 10-0 40.2 none none
18 Rio Mesa (Oxnard, CA) Southern Pacific View 100% 10-0 10-0 41.6 none none
19 Marin Catholic (Kentfield, CA) North Coast Marin County 100% 8-0 8-0 37.8 none none
20 Mission Viejo (CA) Southern South Coast 100% 10-0 10-0 71.6 none none
21 Eureka (CA) North Coast Humboldt-Del Norte - Big 5 100% 10-0 10-0 23.5 none none
22 Inderkum (Sacramento, CA) Sac-Joaquin Tri-County 100% 10-0 10-0 41.6 none none
23 Bishop's (La Jolla, CA) San Diego Coastal 100% 9-0 9-0 38.5 none none
24 Calvin Christian (Escondido, CA) San Diego Ocean (8 Man) 100% 10-0 10-0 16.8 none none
25 Trona (CA) Central 8-Man Freelance (8 Man) 100% 9-0 9-0 38.6 none none
26 St. Bernard's (Eureka, CA) North Coast Humboldt-Del Norte - Little 3 100% 10-0 10-0 19 none none
27 Southwest (El Centro, CA) San Diego Imperial Valley 100% 10-0 10-0 33.6 none none
28 Apple Valley (CA) Southern Mojave River 100% 10-0 10-0 36.8 none none
29 Gilroy (CA) Central Coast Monterey Bay - Pacific 100% 10-0 10-0 20.5 none none
30 Folsom (CA) Sac-Joaquin Sierra Foothill 100% 10-0 10-0 73.1 none none
31 Aquinas (San Bernardino, CA) Southern Ambassador 100% 10-0 10-0 41.3 none none
32 Gregori [Joseph A.] (Modesto, CA) Sac-Joaquin Modesto Metro 100% 10-0 10-0 31.1 none none
33 Del Campo (Fair Oaks, CA) Sac-Joaquin Capital Valley 100% 10-0 10-0 44.9 none none
34 Upland (CA) Southern Baseline 100% 10-0 10-0 66.7 none none
35 San Diego (CA) San Diego Central 100% 10-0 10-0 10.3 none none
36 Milpitas (CA) Central Coast De Anza 100% 9-0 9-0 40.6 none none
37 Arroyo (El Monte, CA) Southern Mission Valley 100% 10-0 10-0 17 none none
38 Encinal (Alameda, CA) North Coast West Alameda County - Shoreline 100% 10-0 10-0 15.6 none none
39 Faith Baptist (Canoga Park, CA) Southern 8-Man Freelance (8 Man) 100% 7-0 7-0 79 none none
40 Mater Dei (Santa Ana, CA) Southern Trinity 100% 10-0 10-0 98 none none
41 Mission Hills (San Marcos, CA) San Diego Avocado 100% 10-0 10-0 62.3 none none
42 Chadwick (Palos Verdes Peninsula, CA) Southern 8-Man Freelance (8 Man) 100% 9-0 9-0 41.1 none none
43 Villanova Prep (Ojai, CA) Southern Mt. Pinos (8 Man) 100% 9-0 9-0 46.2 none none