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RUNNING-THE-TABLE

CALIFORNIA TEAMS WITH THE BEST STATISTICAL CHANCE TO GO UNDEFEATED AND UNTIED IN THE REGULAR SEASON

Explanation: Based on their "projection" power ratings (and home field advantage), each team is given a certain percent chance to win each of their known remaining games. These numbers are based on historical data; a team rated 7 points higher than another has won 82% of the time in the past, etc. The individual game percentages are then multiplied together to find the chance of "running the table". Eg: A team with two games remaining, each deemed 50% chances of winning has a 25% chance of winning both (.5 x .5 = .25)

Chances of winning for each difference in power ratings: 1 (54%), 2 (58%), 3 (62%), 4 (68%), 5 (74%), 6 (80%), 7 (82%), 8 (84%), 9 (85%), 10 (86%), 11 (87%), 12 (88%), 13 (89%), 14 (90%), 15 (91%), 16 (92%), 17 (93%), 18 (94%), 19 (95%), 20 (96%), 21 (97%), 22 (98%), 23 and up (99%)

Note: "Projection" ratings are the ones we use to project game scores. They are very much like the other ratings seen on this site, except that recent results are weighted more heavily and the "politically correct" moderately-low cutoff point at which margin of victory is no longer counted is eliminated.

6/8/9-man teams must have played two games this season before being included in this chart. Historical ratings of the teams (including head-to-head history) are a very small factor in projections.

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RANK SCHOOL SECTION LEAGUE CHANCE RECORD PROJECTED RECORD RATING HIGHEST RATED REMAINING OPPONENT REMAINING GAMES (Chance Of Winning)
1 Portola (CA) Northern Mountain Valley 100% 10-0 10-0 -12.8 none none
2 Joshua Springs (Yucca Valley, CA) Southern Victory (8 Man) 100% 9-0 9-0 69.1 none none
3 Avalon (CA) Southern Express (8 Man) 100% 8-0 8-0 80.3 none none
4 Orestimba (Newman, CA) Sac-Joaquin Southern 100% 10-0 10-0 11.6 none none
5 Palmdale (CA) Southern Golden 100% 10-0 10-0 27.3 none none
6 Cuyama Valley (New Cuyama, CA) Southern Coast Valley (8 Man) 100% 9-0 9-0 25.7 none none
7 Patterson (CA) Sac-Joaquin Western 100% 10-0 10-0 29.8 none none
8 Antelope (CA) Sac-Joaquin Capital Valley 100% 10-0 10-0 42.7 none none
9 Elk Grove (CA) Sac-Joaquin Delta 100% 10-0 10-0 62 none none
10 Saddleback Valley Christian (San Juan Capistrano, CA) Southern San Joaquin 100% 10-0 10-0 17.9 none none
11 St. John Bosco (Bellflower, CA) Southern Trinity 100% 10-0 10-0 86.1 none none
12 Centennial (Corona, CA) Southern Big VIII 100% 10-0 10-0 82.9 none none
13 San Marino (CA) Southern Rio Hondo 100% 10-0 10-0 37.2 none none
14 McClymonds (Oakland, CA) Oakland Oakland 100% 10-0 10-0 17 none none
15 Sierra Canyon (Chatsworth, CA) Southern Gold Coast - Valley 100% 10-0 10-0 35.7 none none
16 Oaks Christian (Westlake Village, CA) Southern Marmonte 100% 10-0 10-0 59.5 none none
17 Central Catholic (Modesto, CA) Sac-Joaquin Valley Oak 100% 10-0 10-0 56.9 none none
18 Belmont (Los Angeles, CA) Los Angeles Central 100% 10-0 10-0 0.6 none none
19 Moreno Valley (CA) Southern Mountain Valley 100% 10-0 10-0 29.2 none none
20 Villa Park (CA) Southern Crestview 100% 10-0 10-0 43.1 none none
21 Redding Christian (Palo Cedro, CA) Northern California - North (8 Man) 100% 8-0 8-0 43.3 none none
22 Valencia (Placentia, CA) Southern Empire 100% 10-0 10-0 36.1 none none
23 Ridgeview (Bakersfield, CA) Central South Yosemite 100% 10-0 10-0 45.6 none none
24 Mission Viejo (CA) Southern South Coast 100% 10-0 10-0 68.3 none none
25 Mojave (CA) Southern 8-Man Freelance (8 Man) 100% 8-0 8-0 56.5 none none
26 Bishop Diego [Garcia] (Santa Barbara, CA) Southern Tri-Valley 100% 10-0 10-0 29.1 none none
27 Fall River (McArthur, CA) Northern Shasta Cascade 100% 8-0 8-0 -4.9 none none
28 Inderkum (Sacramento, CA) Sac-Joaquin Tri-County 100% 10-0 10-0 36.2 none none
29 Placer (Auburn, CA) Sac-Joaquin Pioneer Valley 100% 10-0 10-0 32.9 none none
30 Analy (Sebastopol, CA) North Coast Sonoma County 100% 10-0 10-0 22.9 none none
31 Twentynine Palms (CA) Southern De Anza 100% 10-0 10-0 20.3 none none
32 Folsom (CA) Sac-Joaquin Sierra Foothill 100% 10-0 10-0 61.3 none none
33 Summit (Fontana, CA) Southern Sunkist 100% 10-0 10-0 30.8 none none
34 Katella (Anaheim, CA) Southern Orange 100% 10-0 10-0 4.5 none none
35 Fort Bragg (CA) North Coast North Central I 100% 10-0 10-0 13.1 none none
36 Napa (CA) Sac-Joaquin Monticello Empire 100% 10-0 10-0 39.2 none none
37 Arleta (CA) Los Angeles East Valley 100% 10-0 10-0 20.9 none none
38 Palm Springs (CA) Southern Desert Valley 100% 10-0 10-0 36.1 none none
39 Notre Dame (Riverside, CA) Southern Ambassador 100% 10-0 10-0 26.7 none none
40 Grace Brethren (Simi Valley, CA) Southern Frontier 100% 10-0 10-0 19.3 none none
41 Cate (Carpinteria, CA) Southern Condor (8 Man) 100% 8-0 8-0 66.3 none none
42 Heritage (Romoland, CA) Southern Sunbelt 100% 10-0 10-0 41.1 none none
43 Antioch (CA) North Coast Bay Valley 100% 10-0 10-0 53.8 none none
44 Capital Christian (Sacramento, CA) Sac-Joaquin Golden Empire 100% 10-0 10-0 18.9 none none
45 Foothill (Pleasanton, CA) North Coast East Bay 100% 10-0 10-0 51.9 none none
46 Calvary Murrieta (Murrieta, CA) Southern South Valley 100% 10-0 10-0 1.8 none none
47 Pleasant Valley (Chico, CA) Northern Eastern 100% 10-0 10-0 41.6 none none
48 Mission Hills (San Marcos, CA) San Diego Avocado - East 100% 10-0 10-0 51.8 none none
49 Camarillo [Adolfo] (Camarillo, CA) Southern Camino 100% 10-0 10-0 57.4 none none
50 Fortuna (CA) North Coast Humboldt-Del Norte - Big 5 100% 10-0 10-0 24.6 none none