| CALIFORNIA TEAMS WITH THE BEST STATISTICAL CHANCE TO GO UNDEFEATED AND UNTIED Explanation: Based on their "projection" power ratings (and home field advantage), each team is given a certain percent chance to win each of their known remaining games. These numbers are based on historical data; a team rated 7 points higher than another has won 82% of the time in the past, etc. The individual game percentages are then multiplied together to find the chance of "running the table". Eg: A team with two games remaining, each deemed 50% chances of winning has a 25% chance of winning both (.5 x .5 = .25) Chances of winning for each difference in power ratings: 1 (54%), 2 (58%), 3 (62%), 4 (68%), 5 (74%), 6 (80%), 7 (82%), 8 (84%), 9 (85%), 10 (86%), 11 (87%), 12 (88%), 13 (89%), 14 (90%), 15 (91%), 16 (92%), 17 (93%), 18 (94%), 19 (95%), 20 (96%), 21 (97%), 22 (98%), 23 and up (99%) Note: "Projection" ratings are the ones we use to project game scores. They are very much like the other ratings seen on this site, except that recent results are weighted more heavily and the "politically correct" moderately-low cutoff point at which margin of victory is no longer counted is eliminated. Historical ratings of the teams (including head-to-head history) are a very small factor in projections. | ||||||||||||||
| RANK | SCHOOL | SECTION | LEAGUE | CHANCE | RECORD | PROJECTED RECORD | RATING | HIGHEST RATED REMAINING OPPONENT | REMAINING GAMES (Chance Of Winning) | |||||
| 1 | Novato (CA) | North Coast | Marin County | 100% | 13-0 | 13-0 | 29.8 | none | none | |||||
| 2 | Bishop's (La Jolla, CA) | San Diego | Coastal | 100% | 12-0 | 12-0 | 24.2 | none | none | |||||
| 3 | Poway (CA) | San Diego | Palomar | 100% | 12-0 | 12-0 | 42.4 | none | none | |||||
| 4 | South Bay Lutheran (Inglewood, CA) | Southern | Pacific Mountain (8 Man) | 100% | 11-0 | 11-0 | 59.8 | none | none | |||||
| 5 | De La Salle (Concord, CA) | North Coast | Bay Valley | 100% | 12-0 | 12-0 | 58 | none | none | |||||
| 6 | Foothill (Palo Cedro, CA) | Northern | Eastern | 100% | 12-0 | 12-0 | 39.6 | none | none | |||||
| 7 | La Habra (CA) | Southern | Freeway | 100% | 13-0 | 13-0 | 32.4 | none | none | |||||
| 8 | Sutter (CA) | Northern | Butte View | 100% | 12-0 | 12-0 | 24.3 | none | none | |||||
| 9 | St. Margaret's (San Juan Capistrano, CA) | Southern | Academy | 100% | 14-0 | 14-0 | 25.1 | none | none | |||||
| 10 | Citrus Hill (Perris, CA) | Southern | Mountain Pass | 100% | 14-0 | 14-0 | 23.6 | none | none | |||||
| 11 | Hamilton (Hamilton City, CA) | Northern | Mid-Valley | 100% | 13-0 | 13-0 | 3.5 | none | none | |||||
| 12 | Fall River (McArthur, CA) | Northern | Shasta Cascade | 100% | 11-0 | 11-0 | -3.2 | none | none | |||||