2022 PROJECTION ACCURACY BREAKDOWN      2021 data


State9/169/239/3010/710/1410/2110/2811/411/1111/1811/2512/212/912/16TOTALS
Alabama158-33
(82.7%)		133-28
(82.6%)		163-31
(84%)		167-25
(87%)		171-18
(90.5%)		164-33
(83.2%)		131-23
(85.1%)		97-14
(87.4%)		42-16
(72.4%)		20-9
(69%)		5-7
(41.7%)		5-2
(71.4%)		  1256-239
(84%)
Alaska11-1
(91.7%)		9-2
(81.8%)		11-1
(91.7%)		7-1
(87.5%)		1-3
(25%)		0-1
(0%)		        39-9
(81.3%)
Arizona82-15
(84.5%)		73-24
(75.3%)		81-14
(85.3%)		66-18
(78.6%)		73-13
(84.9%)		83-18
(82.2%)		90-13
(87.4%)		72-9
(88.9%)		55-15
(78.6%)		21-7
(75%)		15-3
(83.3%)		5-3
(62.5%)		4-0
(100%)		 720-152
(82.6%)
Arkansas43-22
(66.2%)		80-5
(94.1%)		72-14
(83.7%)		71-13
(84.5%)		76-11
(87.4%)		77-9
(89.5%)		75-8
(90.4%)		65-16
(80.2%)		46-6
(88.5%)		25-7
(78.1%)		12-4
(75%)		5-3
(62.5%)		1-1
(50%)		 648-119
(84.5%)
California350-87
(80.1%)		305-71
(81.1%)		389-70
(84.7%)		383-79
(82.9%)		409-72
(85%)		385-97
(79.9%)		407-76
(84.3%)		249-74
(77.1%)		150-60
(71.4%)		74-35
(67.9%)		39-15
(72.2%)		18-8
(69.2%)		12-2
(85.7%)		 3170-746
(80.9%)
Colorado72-17
(80.9%)		72-16
(81.8%)		72-15
(82.8%)		84-16
(84%)		84-12
(87.5%)		86-10
(89.6%)		83-11
(88.3%)		39-10
(79.6%)		24-8
(75%)		12-4
(75%)		7-1
(87.5%)		3-0
(100%)		  638-120
(84.2%)
Connecticut39-10
(79.6%)		45-17
(72.6%)		48-16
(75%)		29-5
(85.3%)		25-8
(75.8%)		56-10
(84.8%)		54-6
(90%)		50-10
(83.3%)		46-12
(79.3%)		21-1
(95.5%)		47-10
(82.5%)		27-9
(75%)		6-0
(100%)		 493-114
(81.2%)
Delaware12-1
(92.3%)		15-4
(78.9%)		15-2
(88.2%)		17-1
(94.4%)		15-1
(93.8%)		17-0
(100%)		18-0
(100%)		14-4
(77.8%)		14-1
(93.3%)		9-3
(75%)		7-1
(87.5%)		2-0
(100%)		2-1
(66.7%)		 157-19
(89.2%)
District of Columbia5-0
(100%)		6-1
(85.7%)		8-1
(88.9%)		4-1
(80%)		6-1
(85.7%)		7-0
(100%)		6-1
(85.7%)		6-0
(100%)		5-0
(100%)		2-0
(100%)		2-1
(66.7%)		0-1
(0%)		  57-7
(89.1%)
Florida190-40
(82.6%)		194-37
(84%)		36-12
(75%)		217-44
(83.1%)		220-40
(84.6%)		213-36
(85.5%)		213-38
(84.9%)		187-37
(83.5%)		76-15
(83.5%)		63-23
(73.3%)		28-8
(77.8%)		15-3
(83.3%)		4-0
(100%)		6-0
(100%)		1662-333
(83.3%)
Georgia147-42
(77.8%)		150-34
(81.5%)		141-29
(82.9%)		149-35
(81%)		130-17
(88.4%)		159-37
(81.1%)		162-35
(82.2%)		160-32
(83.3%)		123-16
(88.5%)		69-11
(86.3%)		28-11
(71.8%)		16-4
(80%)		5-3
(62.5%)		 1439-306
(82.5%)
Hawaii18-3
(85.7%)		18-1
(94.7%)		17-2
(89.5%)		19-0
(100%)		14-2
(87.5%)		8-1
(88.9%)		6-3
(66.7%)		 4-0
(100%)		4-2
(66.7%)		3-0
(100%)		   111-14
(88.8%)
Idaho29-11
(72.5%)		33-9
(78.6%)		32-7
(82.1%)		26-13
(66.7%)		34-4
(89.5%)		34-0
(100%)		16-5
(76.2%)		15-1
(93.8%)		6-2
(75%)		1-3
(25%)		    226-55
(80.4%)
Illinois203-46
(81.5%)		207-41
(83.5%)		213-36
(85.5%)		204-20
(91.1%)		205-29
(87.6%)		202-35
(85.2%)		113-15
(88.3%)		48-16
(75%)		31-4
(88.6%)		12-6
(66.7%)		8-1
(88.9%)		   1446-249
(85.3%)
Indiana134-24
(84.8%)		129-26
(83.2%)		139-18
(88.5%)		122-30
(80.3%)		123-29
(80.9%)		106-14
(88.3%)		83-13
(86.5%)		37-11
(77.1%)		17-7
(70.8%)		7-5
(58.3%)		5-1
(83.3%)		   902-178
(83.5%)
Iowa104-17
(86%)		95-21
(81.9%)		100-16
(86.2%)		103-15
(87.3%)		97-19
(83.6%)		84-11
(88.4%)		37-11
(77.1%)		20-4
(83.3%)		11-1
(91.7%)		5-1
(83.3%)		    656-116
(85%)
Kansas79-31
(71.8%)		90-19
(82.6%)		88-19
(82.2%)		91-17
(84.3%)		95-12
(88.8%)		86-23
(78.9%)		87-8
(91.6%)		38-10
(79.2%)		19-5
(79.2%)		12-0
(100%)		4-2
(66.7%)		   689-146
(82.5%)
Kentucky83-17
(83%)		85-13
(86.7%)		80-13
(86%)		69-10
(87.3%)		85-13
(86.7%)		81-17
(82.7%)		79-19
(80.6%)		84-6
(93.3%)		41-7
(85.4%)		16-8
(66.7%)		9-3
(75%)		4-2
(66.7%)		  716-128
(84.8%)
Louisiana114-32
(78.1%)		108-37
(74.5%)		124-21
(85.5%)		126-21
(85.7%)		131-19
(87.3%)		122-25
(83%)		119-23
(83.8%)		118-25
(82.5%)		69-10
(87.3%)		55-9
(85.9%)		25-7
(78.1%)		13-3
(81.3%)		6-2
(75%)		 1130-234
(82.8%)
Maine17-4
(81%)		18-4
(81.8%)		15-7
(68.2%)		19-6
(76%)		17-3
(85%)		17-5
(77.3%)		17-3
(85%)		13-2
(86.7%)		5-1
(83.3%)		3-1
(75%)		    141-36
(79.7%)
Maryland87-19
(82.1%)		88-19
(82.2%)		80-18
(81.6%)		78-19
(80.4%)		80-23
(77.7%)		86-14
(86%)		89-12
(88.1%)		81-12
(87.1%)		47-12
(79.7%)		25-4
(86.2%)		11-3
(78.6%)		4-2
(66.7%)		  756-157
(82.8%)
Massachusetts84-24
(77.8%)		102-28
(78.5%)		105-28
(78.9%)		117-19
(86%)		119-15
(88.8%)		111-19
(85.4%)		103-27
(79.2%)		92-13
(87.6%)		89-27
(76.7%)		18-3
(85.7%)		101-21
(82.8%)		6-4
(60%)		  1047-228
(82.1%)
Michigan203-39
(83.9%)		205-35
(85.4%)		203-35
(85.3%)		194-41
(82.6%)		184-36
(83.6%)		179-40
(81.7%)		103-25
(80.5%)		52-12
(81.3%)		28-4
(87.5%)		14-2
(87.5%)		4-4
(50%)		   1369-273
(83.4%)
Minnesota115-27
(81%)		123-23
(84.2%)		115-29
(79.9%)		119-21
(85%)		117-27
(81.3%)		116-22
(84.1%)		164-29
(85%)		38-10
(79.2%)		19-5
(79.2%)		8-4
(66.7%)		 3-3
(50%)		  937-200
(82.4%)
Mississippi101-24
(80.8%)		105-26
(80.2%)		110-23
(82.7%)		108-25
(81.2%)		114-13
(89.8%)		113-16
(87.6%)		94-21
(81.7%)		97-10
(90.7%)		44-12
(78.6%)		23-5
(82.1%)		8-4
(66.7%)		6-0
(100%)		  923-179
(83.8%)
Missouri100-25
(80%)		102-28
(78.5%)		108-23
(82.4%)		108-18
(85.7%)		113-16
(87.6%)		113-19
(85.6%)		108-22
(83.1%)		70-18
(79.5%)		33-11
(75%)		15-7
(68.2%)		10-2
(83.3%)		5-0
(100%)		  885-189
(82.4%)
Montana22-6
(78.6%)		23-6
(79.3%)		26-4
(86.7%)		27-3
(90%)		25-5
(83.3%)		27-4
(87.1%)		13-3
(81.3%)		11-1
(91.7%)		4-2
(66.7%)		2-1
(66.7%)		    180-35
(83.7%)
Nebraska51-11
(82.3%)		53-8
(86.9%)		52-10
(83.9%)		51-10
(83.6%)		52-10
(83.9%)		51-9
(85%)		28-3
(90.3%)		11-5
(68.8%)		8-0
(100%)		 2-2
(50%)		   359-68
(84.1%)
Nevada24-4
(85.7%)		30-5
(85.7%)		32-2
(94.1%)		28-7
(80%)		31-4
(88.6%)		32-4
(88.9%)		21-2
(91.3%)		11-5
(68.8%)		6-2
(75%)		1-0
(100%)		2-1
(66.7%)		  1-0
(100%)		219-36
(85.9%)
New Hampshire20-3
(87%)		22-6
(78.6%)		24-5
(82.8%)		20-7
(74.1%)		25-4
(86.2%)		23-2
(92%)		24-4
(85.7%)		11-2
(84.6%)		4-4
(50%)		3-0
(100%)		2-0
(100%)		   178-37
(82.8%)
New Jersey125-40
(75.8%)		123-36
(77.4%)		128-31
(80.5%)		123-28
(81.5%)		110-31
(78%)		120-27
(81.6%)		94-19
(83.2%)		49-17
(74.2%)		24-11
(68.6%)		9-5
(64.3%)		21-6
(77.8%)		4-1
(80%)		  930-252
(78.7%)
New Mexico35-4
(89.7%)		29-7
(80.6%)		32-6
(84.2%)		26-7
(78.8%)		37-4
(90.2%)		38-4
(90.5%)		35-3
(92.1%)		16-4
(80%)		15-3
(83.3%)		7-2
(77.8%)		3-1
(75%)		   273-45
(85.8%)
New York149-51
(74.5%)		207-39
(84.1%)		198-48
(80.5%)		205-48
(81%)		210-45
(82.4%)		209-37
(85%)		198-31
(86.5%)		134-34
(79.8%)		67-17
(79.8%)		36-4
(90%)		18-10
(64.3%)		9-1
(90%)		2-0
(100%)		 1642-365
(81.8%)
North Carolina149-34
(81.4%)		128-23
(84.8%)		34-13
(72.3%)		174-22
(88.8%)		163-29
(84.9%)		169-25
(87.1%)		163-25
(86.7%)		113-19
(85.6%)		59-9
(86.8%)		30-5
(85.7%)		11-5
(68.8%)		7-1
(87.5%)		3-1
(75%)		 1203-211
(85.1%)
North Dakota25-3
(89.3%)		22-5
(81.5%)		24-4
(85.7%)		19-8
(70.4%)		24-3
(88.9%)		15-4
(78.9%)		9-3
(75%)		2-4
(33.3%)		2-1
(66.7%)		     142-35
(80.2%)
Ohio284-74
(79.3%)		309-45
(87.3%)		284-64
(81.6%)		298-55
(84.4%)		304-47
(86.6%)		291-53
(84.6%)		193-23
(89.4%)		97-16
(85.8%)		39-17
(69.6%)		22-6
(78.6%)		11-3
(78.6%)		6-1
(85.7%)		  2138-404
(84.1%)
Oklahoma54-20
(73%)		94-19
(83.2%)		88-21
(80.7%)		94-18
(83.9%)		94-15
(86.2%)		97-12
(89%)		98-13
(88.3%)		93-11
(89.4%)		57-7
(89.1%)		31-5
(86.1%)		14-4
(77.8%)		6-3
(66.7%)		0-2
(0%)		 820-150
(84.5%)
Oregon69-17
(80.2%)		75-13
(85.2%)		57-8
(87.7%)		59-10
(85.5%)		56-11
(83.6%)		47-11
(81%)		53-10
(84.1%)		33-7
(82.5%)		16-4
(80%)		8-2
(80%)		5-0
(100%)		   478-93
(83.7%)
Pennsylvania221-52
(81%)		235-43
(84.5%)		225-45
(83.3%)		230-40
(85.2%)		220-54
(80.3%)		236-37
(86.4%)		207-42
(83.1%)		117-22
(84.2%)		77-18
(81.1%)		36-10
(78.3%)		32-8
(80%)		11-1
(91.7%)		3-3
(50%)		 1850-375
(83.1%)
Rhode Island5-8
(38.5%)		14-7
(66.7%)		13-7
(65%)		14-6
(70%)		13-4
(76.5%)		15-4
(78.9%)		16-3
(84.2%)		9-1
(90%)		7-1
(87.5%)		2-2
(50%)		12-3
(80%)		   120-46
(72.3%)
South Carolina92-25
(78.6%)		78-18
(81.3%)		77-16
(82.8%)		90-22
(80.4%)		95-11
(89.6%)		94-15
(86.2%)		100-13
(88.5%)		83-12
(87.4%)		38-10
(79.2%)		19-5
(79.2%)		7-3
(70%)		3-2
(60%)		  776-152
(83.6%)
South Dakota23-5
(82.1%)		25-2
(92.6%)		23-5
(82.1%)		17-5
(77.3%)		23-2
(92%)		20-2
(90.9%)		15-1
(93.8%)		8-0
(100%)		2-2
(50%)		     156-24
(86.7%)
Tennessee143-22
(86.7%)		140-20
(87.5%)		133-27
(83.1%)		95-24
(79.8%)		96-14
(87.3%)		129-26
(83.2%)		141-21
(87%)		93-16
(85.3%)		51-9
(85%)		22-8
(73.3%)		9-3
(75%)		7-2
(77.8%)		  1059-192
(84.7%)
Texas407-110
(78.7%)		434-100
(81.3%)		318-67
(82.6%)		470-73
(86.6%)		449-86
(83.9%)		456-84
(84.4%)		461-62
(88.1%)		439-77
(85.1%)		278-61
(82%)		136-42
(76.4%)		78-10
(88.6%)		34-11
(75.6%)		16-4
(80%)		8-2
(80%)		3984-789
(83.5%)
Utah45-9
(83.3%)		46-6
(88.5%)		43-12
(78.2%)		45-8
(84.9%)		46-3
(93.9%)		26-4
(86.7%)		27-8
(77.1%)		14-4
(77.8%)		9-0
(100%)		2-0
(100%)		    303-54
(84.9%)
Vermont5-2
(71.4%)		11-4
(73.3%)		15-1
(93.8%)		12-3
(80%)		12-3
(80%)		12-3
(80%)		9-3
(75%)		5-1
(83.3%)		3-0
(100%)		     84-20
(80.8%)
Virginia129-25
(83.8%)		127-24
(84.1%)		108-10
(91.5%)		129-21
(86%)		118-34
(77.6%)		123-26
(82.6%)		126-25
(83.4%)		117-22
(84.2%)		83-14
(85.6%)		42-9
(82.4%)		20-5
(80%)		10-2
(83.3%)		6-0
(100%)		 1138-217
(84%)
Washington107-28
(79.3%)		107-31
(77.5%)		111-29
(79.3%)		113-18
(86.3%)		102-18
(85%)		105-20
(84%)		114-21
(84.4%)		92-20
(82.1%)		26-10
(72.2%)		16-4
(80%)		8-2
(80%)		5-0
(100%)		  906-201
(81.8%)
West Virginia49-11
(81.7%)		49-6
(89.1%)		38-9
(80.9%)		42-11
(79.2%)		45-6
(88.2%)		47-6
(88.7%)		42-10
(80.8%)		43-7
(86%)		21-3
(87.5%)		9-3
(75%)		3-3
(50%)		2-1
(66.7%)		  390-76
(83.7%)
Wisconsin149-31
(82.8%)		146-35
(80.7%)		148-30
(83.1%)		151-28
(84.4%)		143-28
(83.6%)		95-15
(86.4%)		49-8
(86%)		27-2
(93.1%)		11-3
(78.6%)		5-2
(71.4%)		    924-182
(83.5%)
Wyoming16-3
(84.2%)		17-1
(94.4%)		13-4
(76.5%)		18-2
(90%)		19-0
(100%)		18-1
(94.7%)		11-1
(91.7%)		6-0
(100%)		1-2
(33.3%)		     119-14
(89.5%)
Prep Schools14-3
(82.4%)		24-9
(72.7%)		24-10
(70.6%)		24-9
(72.7%)		30-4
(88.2%)		27-7
(79.4%)		20-7
(74.1%)		23-10
(69.7%)		18-4
(81.8%)		5-3
(62.5%)		1-0
(100%)		   210-66
(76.1%)
 
NATIONAL4896-1179
(80.6%)		5072-1069
(82.6%)		4783-976
(83.1%)		5234-1000
(84%)		5240-924
(85%)		5191-945
(84.6%)		4700-807
(85.3%)		3392-674
(83.4%)		1970-470
(80.7%)		976-277
(77.9%)		633-177
(78.1%)		241-73
(76.8%)		70-19
(78.7%)		14-2
(87.5%)		42412-8592
(83.2%)


Note: By comparison, blindly picking the team with the better record (and the home team in case of equal records), would have yielded the following percentage for the part of the season we pick:  69.7%
(In other words, anything up around 75-80% is pretty good, but it's important to understand that it's easy to pick 70% in regular-season high school football, due to the large number of mismatched games.)

out-of-state: 80.4% (in 731 games)