2022 PROJECTION ACCURACY BREAKDOWN      2021 data


State8/128/198/269/29/99/169/239/3010/710/1410/2110/2811/411/1111/1811/2512/212/912/16TOTALS
Alabama 107-42
(71.8%)
15-9
(62.5%)
150-44
(77.3%)
165-32
(83.8%)
158-33
(82.7%)
133-28
(82.6%)
163-31
(84%)
167-25
(87%)
171-18
(90.5%)
164-33
(83.2%)
131-23
(85.1%)
97-14
(87.4%)
42-16
(72.4%)
20-9
(69%)
5-7
(41.7%)
5-2
(71.4%)
  1693-366
(82.2%)
Alaska9-2
(81.8%)
9-2
(81.8%)
9-3
(75%)
8-3
(72.7%)
11-1
(91.7%)
11-1
(91.7%)
9-2
(81.8%)
11-1
(91.7%)
7-1
(87.5%)
1-3
(25%)
0-1
(0%)
        85-20
(81%)
Arizona 13-10
(56.5%)
26-10
(72.2%)
75-31
(70.8%)
77-17
(81.9%)
82-15
(84.5%)
73-24
(75.3%)
81-14
(85.3%)
66-18
(78.6%)
73-13
(84.9%)
83-18
(82.2%)
90-13
(87.4%)
72-9
(88.9%)
55-15
(78.6%)
21-7
(75%)
15-3
(83.3%)
5-3
(62.5%)
4-0
(100%)
 911-220
(80.5%)
Arkansas  47-21
(69.1%)
46-24
(65.7%)
59-15
(79.7%)
43-22
(66.2%)
80-5
(94.1%)
72-14
(83.7%)
71-13
(84.5%)
76-11
(87.4%)
77-9
(89.5%)
75-8
(90.4%)
65-16
(80.2%)
46-6
(88.5%)
25-7
(78.1%)
12-4
(75%)
5-3
(62.5%)
1-1
(50%)
 800-179
(81.7%)
California1-0
(100%)
245-90
(73.1%)
344-118
(74.5%)
346-119
(74.4%)
355-88
(80.1%)
354-87
(80.3%)
305-71
(81.1%)
390-69
(85%)
386-76
(83.5%)
410-71
(85.2%)
386-96
(80.1%)
413-70
(85.5%)
250-73
(77.4%)
150-60
(71.4%)
74-35
(67.9%)
39-15
(72.2%)
18-8
(69.2%)
12-2
(85.7%)
 4478-1148
(79.6%)
Colorado  69-24
(74.2%)
72-23
(75.8%)
75-18
(80.6%)
72-17
(80.9%)
72-16
(81.8%)
72-15
(82.8%)
84-16
(84%)
84-12
(87.5%)
86-10
(89.6%)
83-11
(88.3%)
39-10
(79.6%)
24-8
(75%)
12-4
(75%)
7-1
(87.5%)
3-0
(100%)
  854-185
(82.2%)
Connecticut    35-15
(70%)
39-10
(79.6%)
45-17
(72.6%)
48-16
(75%)
29-5
(85.3%)
25-8
(75.8%)
56-10
(84.8%)
54-6
(90%)
50-10
(83.3%)
46-12
(79.3%)
21-1
(95.5%)
47-10
(82.5%)
27-9
(75%)
6-0
(100%)
 528-129
(80.4%)
Delaware   4-3
(57.1%)
12-5
(70.6%)
12-1
(92.3%)
15-4
(78.9%)
15-2
(88.2%)
17-1
(94.4%)
15-1
(93.8%)
17-0
(100%)
18-0
(100%)
14-4
(77.8%)
14-1
(93.3%)
9-3
(75%)
7-1
(87.5%)
2-0
(100%)
2-1
(66.7%)
 173-27
(86.5%)
District of Columbia  0-3
(0%)
5-3
(62.5%)
5-0
(100%)
5-0
(100%)
6-1
(85.7%)
8-1
(88.9%)
4-1
(80%)
6-1
(85.7%)
7-0
(100%)
6-1
(85.7%)
6-0
(100%)
5-0
(100%)
2-0
(100%)
2-1
(66.7%)
0-1
(0%)
  67-13
(83.8%)
Florida 4-0
(100%)
187-67
(73.6%)
170-71
(70.5%)
192-45
(81%)
190-41
(82.3%)
194-37
(84%)
36-12
(75%)
217-44
(83.1%)
220-40
(84.6%)
213-36
(85.5%)
213-38
(84.9%)
187-37
(83.5%)
76-15
(83.5%)
63-23
(73.3%)
28-8
(77.8%)
15-3
(83.3%)
4-0
(100%)
6-0
(100%)
2215-517
(81.1%)
Georgia 155-54
(74.2%)
155-57
(73.1%)
138-56
(71.1%)
132-46
(74.2%)
147-42
(77.8%)
150-34
(81.5%)
141-29
(82.9%)
149-35
(81%)
130-17
(88.4%)
159-37
(81.1%)
162-35
(82.2%)
160-32
(83.3%)
123-16
(88.5%)
69-11
(86.3%)
28-11
(71.8%)
16-4
(80%)
5-3
(62.5%)
 2019-519
(79.6%)
Hawaii7-3
(70%)
8-1
(88.9%)
12-2
(85.7%)
18-2
(90%)
13-1
(92.9%)
18-3
(85.7%)
18-1
(94.7%)
17-2
(89.5%)
19-0
(100%)
14-2
(87.5%)
8-1
(88.9%)
6-3
(66.7%)
 4-0
(100%)
4-2
(66.7%)
3-0
(100%)
   174-25
(87.4%)
Idaho 9-5
(64.3%)
29-15
(65.9%)
32-12
(72.7%)
38-5
(88.4%)
29-11
(72.5%)
33-9
(78.6%)
32-7
(82.1%)
26-13
(66.7%)
34-4
(89.5%)
34-0
(100%)
16-5
(76.2%)
15-1
(93.8%)
6-2
(75%)
1-3
(25%)
    334-92
(78.4%)
Illinois  150-52
(74.3%)
151-50
(75.1%)
207-41
(83.5%)
203-46
(81.5%)
207-41
(83.5%)
213-36
(85.5%)
204-20
(91.1%)
205-29
(87.6%)
202-35
(85.2%)
113-15
(88.3%)
48-16
(75%)
31-4
(88.6%)
12-6
(66.7%)
8-1
(88.9%)
   1954-392
(83.3%)
Indiana 116-37
(75.8%)
114-38
(75%)
123-37
(76.9%)
125-34
(78.6%)
134-24
(84.8%)
129-26
(83.2%)
139-18
(88.5%)
122-30
(80.3%)
123-29
(80.9%)
106-14
(88.3%)
83-13
(86.5%)
37-11
(77.1%)
17-7
(70.8%)
7-5
(58.3%)
5-1
(83.3%)
   1380-324
(81%)
Iowa  81-21
(79.4%)
64-34
(65.3%)
96-22
(81.4%)
104-17
(86%)
95-21
(81.9%)
100-16
(86.2%)
103-15
(87.3%)
97-19
(83.6%)
84-11
(88.4%)
37-11
(77.1%)
20-4
(83.3%)
11-1
(91.7%)
5-1
(83.3%)
    897-193
(82.3%)
Kansas   73-32
(69.5%)
83-24
(77.6%)
79-31
(71.8%)
90-19
(82.6%)
88-19
(82.2%)
91-17
(84.3%)
95-12
(88.8%)
86-23
(78.9%)
87-8
(91.6%)
38-10
(79.2%)
19-5
(79.2%)
12-0
(100%)
4-2
(66.7%)
   845-202
(80.7%)
Kentucky 66-25
(72.5%)
70-23
(75.3%)
82-25
(76.6%)
82-21
(79.6%)
83-17
(83%)
85-13
(86.7%)
80-13
(86%)
69-10
(87.3%)
85-13
(86.7%)
81-17
(82.7%)
79-19
(80.6%)
84-6
(93.3%)
41-7
(85.4%)
16-8
(66.7%)
9-3
(75%)
4-2
(66.7%)
  1016-222
(82.1%)
Louisiana  1-0
(100%)
94-26
(78.3%)
93-38
(71%)
114-32
(78.1%)
108-37
(74.5%)
124-21
(85.5%)
126-21
(85.7%)
131-19
(87.3%)
122-25
(83%)
119-23
(83.8%)
118-25
(82.5%)
69-10
(87.3%)
55-9
(85.9%)
25-7
(78.1%)
13-3
(81.3%)
6-2
(75%)
 1318-298
(81.6%)
Maine   9-3
(75%)
9-3
(75%)
17-4
(81%)
18-4
(81.8%)
15-7
(68.2%)
19-6
(76%)
17-3
(85%)
17-5
(77.3%)
17-3
(85%)
13-2
(86.7%)
5-1
(83.3%)
3-1
(75%)
    159-42
(79.1%)
Maryland  10-3
(76.9%)
63-23
(73.3%)
78-19
(80.4%)
87-19
(82.1%)
88-19
(82.2%)
80-18
(81.6%)
78-19
(80.4%)
80-23
(77.7%)
86-14
(86%)
89-12
(88.1%)
81-12
(87.1%)
47-12
(79.7%)
25-4
(86.2%)
11-3
(78.6%)
4-2
(66.7%)
  907-202
(81.8%)
Massachusetts    78-30
(72.2%)
84-24
(77.8%)
102-28
(78.5%)
105-28
(78.9%)
117-19
(86%)
119-15
(88.8%)
111-19
(85.4%)
103-27
(79.2%)
92-13
(87.6%)
89-27
(76.7%)
18-3
(85.7%)
101-21
(82.8%)
6-4
(60%)
  1125-258
(81.3%)
Michigan  131-63
(67.5%)
149-45
(76.8%)
198-45
(81.5%)
203-39
(83.9%)
205-35
(85.4%)
203-35
(85.3%)
194-41
(82.6%)
184-36
(83.6%)
179-40
(81.7%)
103-25
(80.5%)
52-12
(81.3%)
28-4
(87.5%)
14-2
(87.5%)
4-4
(50%)
   1847-426
(81.3%)
Minnesota   74-24
(75.5%)
77-21
(78.6%)
115-27
(81%)
123-23
(84.2%)
115-29
(79.9%)
119-21
(85%)
117-27
(81.3%)
116-22
(84.1%)
164-29
(85%)
38-10
(79.2%)
19-5
(79.2%)
8-4
(66.7%)
 3-3
(50%)
  1088-245
(81.6%)
Mississippi 16-11
(59.3%)
83-29
(74.1%)
88-29
(75.2%)
98-23
(81%)
101-24
(80.8%)
105-26
(80.2%)
110-23
(82.7%)
108-25
(81.2%)
114-13
(89.8%)
113-16
(87.6%)
94-21
(81.7%)
97-10
(90.7%)
44-12
(78.6%)
23-5
(82.1%)
8-4
(66.7%)
6-0
(100%)
  1208-271
(81.7%)
Missouri  74-27
(73.3%)
81-28
(74.3%)
100-27
(78.7%)
100-25
(80%)
102-28
(78.5%)
108-23
(82.4%)
108-18
(85.7%)
113-16
(87.6%)
113-19
(85.6%)
108-22
(83.1%)
70-18
(79.5%)
33-11
(75%)
15-7
(68.2%)
10-2
(83.3%)
5-0
(100%)
  1140-271
(80.8%)
Montana  16-2
(88.9%)
17-2
(89.5%)
26-1
(96.3%)
22-6
(78.6%)
23-6
(79.3%)
26-4
(86.7%)
27-3
(90%)
25-5
(83.3%)
27-4
(87.1%)
13-3
(81.3%)
11-1
(91.7%)
4-2
(66.7%)
2-1
(66.7%)
    239-40
(85.7%)
Nebraska  43-15
(74.1%)
50-10
(83.3%)
41-22
(65.1%)
51-11
(82.3%)
53-8
(86.9%)
52-10
(83.9%)
51-10
(83.6%)
52-10
(83.9%)
51-9
(85%)
28-3
(90.3%)
11-5
(68.8%)
8-0
(100%)
 2-2
(50%)
   493-115
(81.1%)
Nevada 25-9
(73.5%)
32-6
(84.2%)
29-7
(80.6%)
26-5
(83.9%)
24-4
(85.7%)
30-5
(85.7%)
32-2
(94.1%)
28-7
(80%)
31-4
(88.6%)
33-3
(91.7%)
21-2
(91.3%)
11-5
(68.8%)
6-2
(75%)
1-0
(100%)
2-1
(66.7%)
  1-0
(100%)
332-62
(84.3%)
New Hampshire   12-4
(75%)
12-5
(70.6%)
20-3
(87%)
22-6
(78.6%)
24-5
(82.8%)
20-7
(74.1%)
25-4
(86.2%)
23-2
(92%)
24-4
(85.7%)
11-2
(84.6%)
4-4
(50%)
3-0
(100%)
2-0
(100%)
   202-46
(81.5%)
New Jersey  31-16
(66%)
87-54
(61.7%)
117-37
(76%)
125-40
(75.8%)
123-36
(77.4%)
128-31
(80.5%)
123-28
(81.5%)
110-31
(78%)
120-27
(81.6%)
94-19
(83.2%)
49-17
(74.2%)
24-11
(68.6%)
9-5
(64.3%)
21-6
(77.8%)
4-1
(80%)
  1165-359
(76.4%)
New Mexico 29-10
(74.4%)
32-9
(78%)
35-10
(77.8%)
38-7
(84.4%)
35-4
(89.7%)
29-7
(80.6%)
32-6
(84.2%)
26-7
(78.8%)
37-4
(90.2%)
38-4
(90.5%)
35-3
(92.1%)
16-4
(80%)
15-3
(83.3%)
7-2
(77.8%)
3-1
(75%)
   407-81
(83.4%)
New York   62-26
(70.5%)
126-37
(77.3%)
149-51
(74.5%)
207-39
(84.1%)
198-48
(80.5%)
205-48
(81%)
210-45
(82.4%)
209-37
(85%)
198-31
(86.5%)
134-34
(79.8%)
67-17
(79.8%)
36-4
(90%)
18-10
(64.3%)
9-1
(90%)
2-0
(100%)
 1830-428
(81%)
North Carolina 130-50
(72.2%)
137-47
(74.5%)
144-40
(78.3%)
120-26
(82.2%)
149-34
(81.4%)
128-23
(84.8%)
34-13
(72.3%)
174-22
(88.8%)
163-29
(84.9%)
169-25
(87.1%)
163-25
(86.7%)
113-19
(85.6%)
59-9
(86.8%)
30-5
(85.7%)
11-5
(68.8%)
7-1
(87.5%)
3-1
(75%)
 1734-374
(82.3%)
North Dakota 4-0
(100%)
8-3
(72.7%)
17-7
(70.8%)
25-3
(89.3%)
25-3
(89.3%)
22-5
(81.5%)
24-4
(85.7%)
19-8
(70.4%)
24-3
(88.9%)
15-4
(78.9%)
9-3
(75%)
2-4
(33.3%)
2-1
(66.7%)
     196-48
(80.3%)
Ohio 224-87
(72%)
233-80
(74.4%)
254-93
(73.2%)
306-53
(85.2%)
285-74
(79.4%)
309-45
(87.3%)
284-64
(81.6%)
298-55
(84.4%)
304-47
(86.6%)
291-53
(84.6%)
193-23
(89.4%)
97-16
(85.8%)
39-17
(69.6%)
22-6
(78.6%)
11-3
(78.6%)
6-1
(85.7%)
  3156-717
(81.5%)
Oklahoma  49-16
(75.4%)
75-27
(73.5%)
77-22
(77.8%)
54-20
(73%)
94-19
(83.2%)
88-21
(80.7%)
94-18
(83.9%)
94-15
(86.2%)
97-12
(89%)
98-13
(88.3%)
93-11
(89.4%)
57-7
(89.1%)
31-5
(86.1%)
14-4
(77.8%)
6-3
(66.7%)
0-2
(0%)
 1021-215
(82.6%)
Oregon   52-15
(77.6%)
47-17
(73.4%)
69-17
(80.2%)
75-13
(85.2%)
57-8
(87.7%)
59-10
(85.5%)
56-11
(83.6%)
47-11
(81%)
53-10
(84.1%)
33-7
(82.5%)
16-4
(80%)
8-2
(80%)
5-0
(100%)
   577-125
(82.2%)
Pennsylvania 0-1
(0%)
169-57
(74.8%)
166-72
(69.7%)
208-62
(77%)
221-52
(81%)
235-43
(84.5%)
225-45
(83.3%)
230-40
(85.2%)
220-54
(80.3%)
236-37
(86.4%)
207-42
(83.1%)
117-22
(84.2%)
77-18
(81.1%)
36-10
(78.3%)
32-8
(80%)
11-1
(91.7%)
3-3
(50%)
 2393-567
(80.8%)
Rhode Island   0-1
(0%)
10-5
(66.7%)
5-8
(38.5%)
14-7
(66.7%)
13-7
(65%)
14-6
(70%)
13-4
(76.5%)
15-4
(78.9%)
16-3
(84.2%)
9-1
(90%)
7-1
(87.5%)
2-2
(50%)
12-3
(80%)
   130-52
(71.4%)
South Carolina 57-23
(71.3%)
75-29
(72.1%)
83-33
(71.6%)
89-23
(79.5%)
92-25
(78.6%)
78-18
(81.3%)
77-16
(82.8%)
90-22
(80.4%)
95-11
(89.6%)
94-15
(86.2%)
100-13
(88.5%)
83-12
(87.4%)
38-10
(79.2%)
19-5
(79.2%)
7-3
(70%)
3-2
(60%)
  1080-260
(80.6%)
South Dakota 2-1
(66.7%)
11-5
(68.8%)
24-1
(96%)
23-8
(74.2%)
23-5
(82.1%)
25-2
(92.6%)
23-5
(82.1%)
17-5
(77.3%)
23-2
(92%)
20-2
(90.9%)
15-1
(93.8%)
8-0
(100%)
2-2
(50%)
     216-39
(84.7%)
Tennessee 111-47
(70.3%)
110-47
(70.1%)
130-34
(79.3%)
131-32
(80.4%)
143-22
(86.7%)
140-20
(87.5%)
133-27
(83.1%)
95-24
(79.8%)
96-14
(87.3%)
129-26
(83.2%)
141-21
(87%)
93-16
(85.3%)
51-9
(85%)
22-8
(73.3%)
9-3
(75%)
7-2
(77.8%)
  1541-352
(81.4%)
Texas  358-193
(65%)
389-158
(71.1%)
453-126
(78.2%)
407-110
(78.7%)
434-100
(81.3%)
318-67
(82.6%)
470-73
(86.6%)
449-86
(83.9%)
456-84
(84.4%)
461-62
(88.1%)
439-77
(85.1%)
278-61
(82%)
136-42
(76.4%)
78-10
(88.6%)
34-11
(75.6%)
16-4
(80%)
8-2
(80%)
5184-1266
(80.4%)
Utah36-16
(69.2%)
40-16
(71.4%)
44-15
(74.6%)
45-8
(84.9%)
47-8
(85.5%)
45-9
(83.3%)
46-6
(88.5%)
43-12
(78.2%)
45-8
(84.9%)
46-3
(93.9%)
26-4
(86.7%)
27-8
(77.1%)
14-4
(77.8%)
9-0
(100%)
2-0
(100%)
    515-117
(81.5%)
Vermont   4-2
(66.7%)
4-3
(57.1%)
5-2
(71.4%)
11-4
(73.3%)
15-1
(93.8%)
12-3
(80%)
12-3
(80%)
12-3
(80%)
9-3
(75%)
5-1
(83.3%)
3-0
(100%)
     92-25
(78.6%)
Virginia  88-34
(72.1%)
91-30
(75.2%)
112-38
(74.7%)
129-25
(83.8%)
127-24
(84.1%)
108-10
(91.5%)
129-21
(86%)
118-34
(77.6%)
123-26
(82.6%)
126-25
(83.4%)
117-22
(84.2%)
83-14
(85.6%)
42-9
(82.4%)
20-5
(80%)
10-2
(83.3%)
6-0
(100%)
 1429-319
(81.8%)
Washington   84-35
(70.6%)
94-24
(79.7%)
107-28
(79.3%)
107-31
(77.5%)
111-29
(79.3%)
113-18
(86.3%)
102-18
(85%)
105-20
(84%)
114-21
(84.4%)
92-20
(82.1%)
26-10
(72.2%)
16-4
(80%)
8-2
(80%)
5-0
(100%)
  1084-260
(80.7%)
West Virginia  31-18
(63.3%)
37-12
(75.5%)
37-16
(69.8%)
49-11
(81.7%)
49-6
(89.1%)
38-9
(80.9%)
42-11
(79.2%)
45-6
(88.2%)
47-6
(88.7%)
42-10
(80.8%)
43-7
(86%)
21-3
(87.5%)
9-3
(75%)
3-3
(50%)
2-1
(66.7%)
  495-122
(80.2%)
Wisconsin 102-33
(75.6%)
101-36
(73.7%)
139-35
(79.9%)
141-37
(79.2%)
149-31
(82.8%)
146-35
(80.7%)
148-30
(83.1%)
151-28
(84.4%)
143-28
(83.6%)
95-15
(86.4%)
49-8
(86%)
27-2
(93.1%)
11-3
(78.6%)
5-2
(71.4%)
    1407-323
(81.3%)
Wyoming  13-2
(86.7%)
15-5
(75%)
14-5
(73.7%)
16-3
(84.2%)
17-1
(94.4%)
13-4
(76.5%)
18-2
(90%)
19-0
(100%)
18-1
(94.7%)
11-1
(91.7%)
6-0
(100%)
1-2
(33.3%)
     161-26
(86.1%)
Prep Schools   3-1
(75%)
5-5
(50%)
14-3
(82.4%)
24-9
(72.7%)
24-10
(70.6%)
24-9
(72.7%)
30-4
(88.2%)
27-7
(79.4%)
20-7
(74.1%)
23-10
(69.7%)
18-4
(81.8%)
5-3
(62.5%)
1-0
(100%)
   218-72
(75.2%)
 
NATIONAL52-20
(72.2%)
1421-539
(72.5%)
3068-1165
(72.5%)
4028-1401
(74.2%)
4695-1219
(79.4%)
4901-1180
(80.6%)
5072-1069
(82.6%)
4784-975
(83.1%)
5237-997
(84%)
5241-923
(85%)
5193-943
(84.6%)
4706-801
(85.5%)
3393-673
(83.4%)
1970-470
(80.7%)
976-277
(77.9%)
633-177
(78.1%)
241-73
(76.8%)
70-19
(78.7%)
14-2
(87.5%)
55700-12925
(81.2%)


Note: By comparison, blindly picking the team with the better record (and the home team in case of equal records), would have yielded the following percentage for the season:  70.3%
(In other words, anything up around 75-80% is pretty good, but it's important to understand that it's easy to pick 70% in regular-season high school football, due to the large number of mismatched games.)

out-of-state: 75.9% (in 1351 games)

playoffs: 81.4% (in 8523 games) [regular season: 81.1%]