2021 PROJECTION ACCURACY BREAKDOWN      2020 data


State9/2410/110/810/15TOTALS
Alabama 154-26
(85.6%)
162-34
(82.7%)
172-25
(87.3%)
488-85
(85.2%)
Alaska 9-1
(90%)
6-2
(75%)
3-1
(75%)
18-4
(81.8%)
Arizona 75-12
(86.2%)
72-14
(83.7%)
77-14
(84.6%)
224-40
(84.8%)
Arkansas 73-11
(86.9%)
75-12
(86.2%)
77-12
(86.5%)
225-35
(86.5%)
California 317-80
(79.8%)
372-78
(82.7%)
382-85
(81.8%)
1071-243
(81.5%)
Colorado 55-16
(77.5%)
80-13
(86%)
78-16
(83%)
213-45
(82.6%)
Connecticut 42-16
(72.4%)
26-7
(78.8%)
25-7
(78.1%)
93-30
(75.6%)
Delaware 19-3
(86.4%)
17-5
(77.3%)
14-5
(73.7%)
50-13
(79.4%)
District of Columbia 9-0
(100%)
7-0
(100%)
11-0
(100%)
27-0
(100%)
Florida 186-32
(85.3%)
168-42
(80%)
201-37
(84.5%)
555-111
(83.3%)
Georgia 151-29
(83.9%)
139-28
(83.2%)
144-26
(84.7%)
434-83
(83.9%)
Hawaii 0-2
(0%)
1-0
(100%)
2-2
(50%)
3-4
(42.9%)
Idaho 30-4
(88.2%)
35-5
(87.5%)
28-12
(70%)
93-21
(81.6%)
Illinois 179-44
(80.3%)
202-33
(86%)
207-25
(89.2%)
588-102
(85.2%)
Indiana 136-21
(86.6%)
134-24
(84.8%)
124-22
(84.9%)
394-67
(85.5%)
Iowa 108-17
(86.4%)
104-23
(81.9%)
109-17
(86.5%)
321-57
(84.9%)
Kansas 86-21
(80.4%)
88-23
(79.3%)
85-23
(78.7%)
259-67
(79.4%)
Kentucky 65-9
(87.8%)
67-9
(88.2%)
85-10
(89.5%)
217-28
(88.6%)
Louisiana 79-33
(70.5%)
124-19
(86.7%)
122-20
(85.9%)
325-72
(81.9%)
Maine 15-8
(65.2%)
18-4
(81.8%)
16-1
(94.1%)
49-13
(79%)
Maryland 80-24
(76.9%)
80-15
(84.2%)
82-21
(79.6%)
242-60
(80.1%)
Massachusetts 99-24
(80.5%)
100-28
(78.1%)
109-19
(85.2%)
308-71
(81.3%)
Michigan 184-32
(85.2%)
187-39
(82.7%)
179-30
(85.6%)
550-101
(84.5%)
Minnesota 114-25
(82%)
117-24
(83%)
116-25
(82.3%)
347-74
(82.4%)
Mississippi 108-21
(83.7%)
114-20
(85.1%)
106-29
(78.5%)
328-70
(82.4%)
Missouri 130-24
(84.4%)
133-20
(86.9%)
123-26
(82.6%)
386-70
(84.6%)
Montana 25-2
(92.6%)
26-4
(86.7%)
25-5
(83.3%)
76-11
(87.4%)
Nebraska 49-9
(84.5%)
55-9
(85.9%)
53-8
(86.9%)
157-26
(85.8%)
Nevada 27-6
(81.8%)
27-6
(81.8%)
28-3
(90.3%)
82-15
(84.5%)
New Hampshire 23-3
(88.5%)
21-2
(91.3%)
21-2
(91.3%)
65-7
(90.3%)
New Jersey 116-32
(78.4%)
123-25
(83.1%)
125-24
(83.9%)
364-81
(81.8%)
New Mexico 31-3
(91.2%)
29-6
(82.9%)
33-3
(91.7%)
93-12
(88.6%)
New York 175-55
(76.1%)
208-36
(85.2%)
194-37
(84%)
577-128
(81.8%)
North Carolina 136-32
(81%)
126-26
(82.9%)
164-33
(83.2%)
426-91
(82.4%)
North Dakota 21-5
(80.8%)
25-2
(92.6%)
23-4
(85.2%)
69-11
(86.3%)
Ohio 281-43
(86.7%)
283-49
(85.2%)
279-60
(82.3%)
843-152
(84.7%)
Oklahoma 108-13
(89.3%)
110-17
(86.6%)
109-14
(88.6%)
327-44
(88.1%)
Oregon 57-10
(85.1%)
57-8
(87.7%)
67-10
(87%)
181-28
(86.6%)
Pennsylvania 200-53
(79.1%)
219-43
(83.6%)
229-32
(87.7%)
648-128
(83.5%)
Rhode Island 14-2
(87.5%)
14-3
(82.4%)
14-4
(77.8%)
42-9
(82.4%)
South Carolina 72-17
(80.9%)
65-13
(83.3%)
70-22
(76.1%)
207-52
(79.9%)
South Dakota 23-5
(82.1%)
25-4
(86.2%)
27-4
(87.1%)
75-13
(85.2%)
Tennessee 129-23
(84.9%)
95-18
(84.1%)
99-12
(89.2%)
323-53
(85.9%)
Texas 285-59
(82.8%)
447-87
(83.7%)
453-75
(85.8%)
1185-221
(84.3%)
Utah 38-12
(76%)
39-12
(76.5%)
36-5
(87.8%)
113-29
(79.6%)
Vermont 10-4
(71.4%)
10-3
(76.9%)
9-6
(60%)
29-13
(69%)
Virginia 107-22
(82.9%)
117-27
(81.3%)
121-23
(84%)
345-72
(82.7%)
Washington 96-16
(85.7%)
96-24
(80%)
97-29
(77%)
289-69
(80.7%)
West Virginia 39-8
(83%)
39-10
(79.6%)
39-11
(78%)
117-29
(80.1%)
Wisconsin 130-31
(80.7%)
147-25
(85.5%)
147-26
(85%)
424-82
(83.8%)
Wyoming 14-5
(73.7%)
17-1
(94.4%)
14-5
(73.7%)
45-11
(80.4%)
Prep Schools 15-13
(53.6%)
24-7
(77.4%)
26-7
(78.8%)
65-27
(70.7%)
 
NATIONAL 4681-1009
(82.3%)
5034-978
(83.7%)
5153-969
(84.2%)
14868-2956
(83.4%)


Note: By comparison, blindly picking the team with the better record (and the home team in case of equal records), would have yielded the following percentage for the part of the season we pick:  62.4%
(In other words, anything up around 75-80% is pretty good, but it's important to understand that it's easy to pick 70% in regular-season high school football, due to the large number of mismatched games.)

out-of-state: 80.3% (in 239 games)