2019 PROJECTION ACCURACY BREAKDOWN      2018 data


State9/2710/410/1110/1810/2511/111/811/1511/2211/2912/612/13TOTALS
Alabama 166-30
(84.7%)
162-30
(84.4%)
163-35
(82.3%)
171-21
(89.1%)
132-30
(81.5%)
98-18
(84.5%)
41-17
(70.7%)
23-6
(79.3%)
9-3
(75%)
6-1
(85.7%)
 971-191
(83.6%)
Alaska 12-2
(85.7%)
7-1
(87.5%)
3-1
(75%)
0-1
(0%)
       22-5
(81.5%)
Arizona 82-19
(81.2%)
79-7
(91.9%)
76-18
(80.9%)
86-16
(84.3%)
90-11
(89.1%)
36-6
(85.7%)
19-6
(76%)
10-2
(83.3%)
1-0
(100%)
3-2
(60%)
 482-87
(84.7%)
Arkansas 79-19
(80.6%)
84-16
(84%)
87-10
(89.7%)
88-11
(88.9%)
85-11
(88.5%)
84-13
(86.6%)
43-14
(75.4%)
30-6
(83.3%)
13-5
(72.2%)
8-1
(88.9%)
1-2
(33.3%)
602-108
(84.8%)
California 389-81
(82.8%)
388-72
(84.3%)
428-72
(85.6%)
411-58
(87.6%)
422-70
(85.8%)
220-59
(78.9%)
163-42
(79.5%)
80-24
(76.9%)
30-23
(56.6%)
13-12
(52%)
12-2
(85.7%)
2556-515
(83.2%)
Colorado 77-17
(81.9%)
84-13
(86.6%)
83-17
(83%)
78-19
(80.4%)
83-12
(87.4%)
52-12
(81.3%)
27-5
(84.4%)
10-6
(62.5%)
7-1
(87.5%)
3-0
(100%)
 504-102
(83.2%)
Connecticut 52-12
(81.3%)
22-8
(73.3%)
28-5
(84.8%)
48-16
(75%)
55-12
(82.1%)
49-12
(80.3%)
57-8
(87.7%)
19-9
(67.9%)
52-10
(83.9%)
14-2
(87.5%)
7-5
(58.3%)
403-99
(80.3%)
Delaware 17-5
(77.3%)
21-2
(91.3%)
18-4
(81.8%)
21-1
(95.5%)
16-5
(76.2%)
19-3
(86.4%)
5-1
(83.3%)
4-0
(100%)
1-1
(50%)
  122-22
(84.7%)
District of Columbia 5-3
(62.5%)
8-1
(88.9%)
7-1
(87.5%)
9-1
(90%)
5-2
(71.4%)
4-2
(66.7%)
4-1
(80%)
1-1
(50%)
3-0
(100%)
1-0
(100%)
 47-12
(79.7%)
Florida 185-49
(79.1%)
209-44
(82.6%)
177-39
(81.9%)
214-51
(80.8%)
193-30
(86.5%)
85-14
(85.9%)
52-14
(78.8%)
30-2
(93.8%)
13-3
(81.3%)
3-0
(100%)
4-1
(80%)
1165-247
(82.5%)
Georgia 166-29
(85.1%)
161-28
(85.2%)
159-37
(81.1%)
176-26
(87.1%)
185-23
(88.9%)
171-38
(81.8%)
99-20
(83.2%)
60-18
(76.9%)
22-14
(61.1%)
15-4
(78.9%)
6-2
(75%)
1220-239
(83.6%)
Hawaii 18-3
(85.7%)
18-3
(85.7%)
12-2
(85.7%)
10-4
(71.4%)
4-0
(100%)
 2-0
(100%)
5-1
(83.3%)
3-0
(100%)
  72-13
(84.7%)
Idaho 29-12
(70.7%)
33-8
(80.5%)
34-5
(87.2%)
35-6
(85.4%)
18-5
(78.3%)
16-0
(100%)
8-0
(100%)
3-1
(75%)
   176-37
(82.6%)
Illinois 230-40
(85.2%)
227-41
(84.7%)
193-40
(82.8%)
202-30
(87.1%)
120-10
(92.3%)
53-13
(80.3%)
24-12
(66.7%)
15-3
(83.3%)
6-3
(66.7%)
  1070-192
(84.8%)
Indiana 148-21
(87.6%)
134-29
(82.2%)
129-25
(83.8%)
108-18
(85.7%)
84-13
(86.6%)
41-8
(83.7%)
17-7
(70.8%)
15-1
(93.8%)
4-2
(66.7%)
  680-124
(84.6%)
Iowa 107-25
(81.1%)
107-23
(82.3%)
119-12
(90.8%)
109-23
(82.6%)
32-8
(80%)
16-4
(80%)
7-3
(70%)
3-2
(60%)
   500-100
(83.3%)
Kansas 91-22
(80.5%)
104-10
(91.2%)
95-18
(84.1%)
92-17
(84.4%)
84-10
(89.4%)
40-9
(81.6%)
21-3
(87.5%)
10-4
(71.4%)
3-3
(50%)
  540-96
(84.9%)
Kentucky 74-16
(82.2%)
72-12
(85.7%)
88-13
(87.1%)
83-21
(79.8%)
85-16
(84.2%)
84-11
(88.4%)
41-7
(85.4%)
19-5
(79.2%)
11-1
(91.7%)
5-1
(83.3%)
 562-103
(84.5%)
Louisiana 113-27
(80.7%)
105-32
(76.6%)
117-27
(81.3%)
123-22
(84.8%)
128-17
(88.3%)
124-19
(86.7%)
75-18
(80.6%)
41-14
(74.5%)
21-7
(75%)
10-3
(76.9%)
6-0
(100%)
863-186
(82.3%)
Maine 27-5
(84.4%)
30-2
(93.8%)
26-5
(83.9%)
27-5
(84.4%)
17-7
(70.8%)
14-2
(87.5%)
5-3
(62.5%)
2-2
(50%)
1-0
(100%)
  149-31
(82.8%)
Maryland 88-24
(78.6%)
95-15
(86.4%)
85-23
(78.7%)
87-19
(82.1%)
96-11
(89.7%)
65-11
(85.5%)
35-6
(85.4%)
13-5
(72.2%)
7-3
(70%)
3-1
(75%)
 574-118
(82.9%)
Massachusetts 114-21
(84.4%)
105-25
(80.8%)
118-15
(88.7%)
106-24
(81.5%)
91-29
(75.8%)
94-33
(74%)
99-32
(75.6%)
12-1
(92.3%)
103-25
(80.5%)
3-7
(30%)
 845-212
(79.9%)
Michigan 220-41
(84.3%)
222-39
(85.1%)
208-39
(84.2%)
212-45
(82.5%)
99-28
(78%)
41-23
(64.1%)
24-8
(75%)
12-4
(75%)
5-3
(62.5%)
  1043-230
(81.9%)
Minnesota 120-24
(83.3%)
122-24
(83.6%)
123-18
(87.2%)
167-30
(84.8%)
34-14
(70.8%)
22-2
(91.7%)
8-4
(66.7%)
 5-1
(83.3%)
  601-117
(83.7%)
Mississippi 108-27
(80%)
108-30
(78.3%)
108-28
(79.4%)
103-27
(79.2%)
109-13
(89.3%)
92-17
(84.4%)
43-13
(76.8%)
22-6
(78.6%)
9-3
(75%)
3-3
(50%)
 705-167
(80.8%)
Missouri 136-30
(81.9%)
141-23
(86%)
137-25
(84.6%)
138-25
(84.7%)
129-19
(87.2%)
72-17
(80.9%)
34-10
(77.3%)
18-6
(75%)
9-3
(75%)
3-2
(60%)
 817-160
(83.6%)
Montana 24-5
(82.8%)
25-2
(92.6%)
28-1
(96.6%)
22-7
(75.9%)
17-2
(89.5%)
12-0
(100%)
4-2
(66.7%)
1-2
(33.3%)
   133-21
(86.4%)
Nebraska 52-15
(77.6%)
56-11
(83.6%)
62-5
(92.5%)
63-4
(94%)
30-2
(93.8%)
13-3
(81.3%)
7-1
(87.5%)
 4-0
(100%)
  287-41
(87.5%)
Nevada 24-7
(77.4%)
24-7
(77.4%)
26-6
(81.3%)
22-6
(78.6%)
19-7
(73.1%)
19-3
(86.4%)
9-2
(81.8%)
3-2
(60%)
1-2
(33.3%)
1-0
(100%)
 148-42
(77.9%)
New Hampshire 24-5
(82.8%)
21-4
(84%)
27-2
(93.1%)
23-6
(79.3%)
20-4
(83.3%)
8-6
(57.1%)
6-1
(85.7%)
2-1
(66.7%)
2-1
(66.7%)
  133-30
(81.6%)
New Jersey 115-43
(72.8%)
127-30
(80.9%)
121-36
(77.1%)
125-30
(80.6%)
120-39
(75.5%)
107-31
(77.5%)
35-13
(72.9%)
22-4
(84.6%)
34-14
(70.8%)
4-3
(57.1%)
 810-243
(76.9%)
New Mexico 33-5
(86.8%)
33-1
(97.1%)
33-10
(76.7%)
41-3
(93.2%)
29-12
(70.7%)
18-2
(90%)
15-3
(83.3%)
5-4
(55.6%)
2-2
(50%)
  209-42
(83.3%)
New York 216-54
(80%)
214-51
(80.8%)
223-49
(82%)
217-38
(85.1%)
137-43
(76.1%)
75-19
(79.8%)
41-9
(82%)
21-4
(84%)
10-3
(76.9%)
1-0
(100%)
 1155-270
(81.1%)
North Carolina 133-17
(88.7%)
155-31
(83.3%)
167-22
(88.4%)
158-29
(84.5%)
150-36
(80.6%)
153-35
(81.4%)
80-18
(81.6%)
47-15
(75.8%)
25-7
(78.1%)
11-5
(68.8%)
7-1
(87.5%)
1086-216
(83.4%)
North Dakota 25-5
(83.3%)
9-2
(81.8%)
41-4
(91.1%)
20-1
(95.2%)
10-2
(83.3%)
6-0
(100%)
3-0
(100%)
    114-14
(89.1%)
Ohio 291-65
(81.7%)
293-62
(82.5%)
312-47
(86.9%)
303-45
(87.1%)
293-60
(83%)
94-19
(83.2%)
48-8
(85.7%)
22-6
(78.6%)
8-6
(57.1%)
4-3
(57.1%)
 1668-321
(83.9%)
Oklahoma 106-17
(86.2%)
104-19
(84.6%)
106-18
(85.5%)
105-20
(84%)
110-14
(88.7%)
107-17
(86.3%)
52-12
(81.3%)
26-9
(74.3%)
11-3
(78.6%)
8-1
(88.9%)
0-2
(0%)
735-132
(84.8%)
Oregon 72-15
(82.8%)
75-13
(85.2%)
68-18
(79.1%)
67-19
(77.9%)
59-4
(93.7%)
40-8
(83.3%)
17-7
(70.8%)
9-3
(75%)
4-2
(66.7%)
1-0
(100%)
 412-89
(82.2%)
Pennsylvania 224-54
(80.6%)
241-39
(86.1%)
230-43
(84.2%)
224-39
(85.2%)
126-24
(84%)
74-18
(80.4%)
33-11
(75%)
17-4
(81%)
15-10
(60%)
5-1
(83.3%)
 1189-243
(83%)
Rhode Island 15-6
(71.4%)
19-2
(90.5%)
17-2
(89.5%)
19-3
(86.4%)
18-3
(85.7%)
13-3
(81.3%)
14-4
(77.8%)
3-1
(75%)
19-1
(95%)
  137-25
(84.6%)
South Carolina 93-23
(80.2%)
90-21
(81.1%)
89-26
(77.4%)
104-11
(90.4%)
99-14
(87.6%)
71-11
(86.6%)
42-3
(93.3%)
17-7
(70.8%)
8-2
(80%)
4-1
(80%)
 617-119
(83.8%)
South Dakota 24-3
(88.9%)
18-3
(85.7%)
27-3
(90%)
22-2
(91.7%)
14-2
(87.5%)
6-2
(75%)
3-1
(75%)
    114-16
(87.7%)
Tennessee 133-26
(83.6%)
87-21
(80.6%)
120-24
(83.3%)
126-35
(78.3%)
134-32
(80.7%)
88-18
(83%)
47-13
(78.3%)
21-10
(67.7%)
8-4
(66.7%)
7-2
(77.8%)
 771-185
(80.6%)
Texas 346-59
(85.4%)
460-78
(85.5%)
452-86
(84%)
460-87
(84.1%)
470-79
(85.6%)
459-81
(85%)
297-51
(85.3%)
143-40
(78.1%)
66-22
(75%)
33-11
(75%)
16-4
(80%)
3202-598
(84.3%)
Utah 46-6
(88.5%)
45-7
(86.5%)
31-9
(77.5%)
35-4
(89.7%)
31-1
(96.9%)
12-4
(75%)
5-3
(62.5%)
3-0
(100%)
   208-34
(86%)
Vermont 12-3
(80%)
13-2
(86.7%)
12-2
(85.7%)
11-2
(84.6%)
5-1
(83.3%)
2-1
(66.7%)
     55-11
(83.3%)
Virginia 130-28
(82.3%)
137-31
(81.5%)
140-27
(83.8%)
138-23
(85.7%)
136-25
(84.5%)
125-21
(85.6%)
77-21
(78.6%)
43-10
(81.1%)
22-3
(88%)
7-5
(58.3%)
4-2
(66.7%)
959-196
(83%)
Washington 130-12
(91.5%)
108-35
(75.5%)
113-28
(80.1%)
119-22
(84.4%)
113-20
(85%)
88-19
(82.2%)
34-6
(85%)
15-5
(75%)
9-1
(90%)
4-1
(80%)
 733-149
(83.1%)
West Virginia 51-6
(89.5%)
46-8
(85.2%)
45-13
(77.6%)
46-11
(80.7%)
50-7
(87.7%)
41-6
(87.2%)
22-2
(91.7%)
10-2
(83.3%)
4-2
(66.7%)
2-1
(66.7%)
 317-58
(84.5%)
Wisconsin 160-27
(85.6%)
150-38
(79.8%)
156-30
(83.9%)
92-18
(83.6%)
43-13
(76.8%)
21-7
(75%)
11-3
(78.6%)
3-4
(42.9%)
   636-140
(82%)
Wyoming 21-2
(91.3%)
19-4
(82.6%)
21-2
(91.3%)
19-4
(82.6%)
16-0
(100%)
6-2
(75%)
3-1
(75%)
    105-15
(87.5%)
Prep Schools 26-8
(76.5%)
29-5
(85.3%)
26-10
(72.2%)
27-8
(77.1%)
27-5
(84.4%)
21-4
(84%)
2-5
(28.6%)
    158-45
(77.8%)
 
NATIONAL 5321-1091
(83%)
5393-1053
(83.7%)
5471-1048
(83.9%)
5482-1009
(84.5%)
4639-853
(84.5%)
3265-686
(82.6%)
1860-452
(80.4%)
880-258
(77.3%)
587-198
(74.8%)
185-73
(71.7%)
63-21
(75%)
33146-6742
(83.1%)


Note: By comparison, blindly picking the team with the better record (and the home team in case of equal records), would have yielded the following percentage for the part of the season we pick:  67.6%
(In other words, anything up around 75-80% is pretty good, but it's important to understand that it's easy to pick 70% in regular-season high school football, due to the large number of mismatched games.)

out-of-state: 77.4% (in 495 games)