2017 PROJECTION ACCURACY BREAKDOWN      2016 data


State9/2910/610/1310/2010/2711/311/1011/17TOTALS
Alabama 169-27
(86.2%)
163-36
(81.9%)
172-27
(86.4%)
169-23
(88%)
138-36
(79.3%)
92-18
(83.6%)
42-13
(76.4%)
945-180
(84%)
Alaska 7-1
(87.5%)
1-3
(25%)
1-0
(100%)
    9-4
(69.2%)
Arizona 82-22
(78.8%)
69-19
(78.4%)
91-15
(85.8%)
82-21
(79.6%)
37-4
(90.2%)
19-3
(86.4%)
6-5
(54.5%)
386-89
(81.3%)
Arkansas 85-17
(83.3%)
84-18
(82.4%)
90-12
(88.2%)
88-14
(86.3%)
85-17
(83.3%)
43-14
(75.4%)
29-7
(80.6%)
504-99
(83.6%)
California 404-81
(83.3%)
333-68
(83%)
432-53
(89.1%)
419-75
(84.8%)
426-77
(84.7%)
250-44
(85%)
144-41
(77.8%)
2408-439
(84.6%)
Colorado0-1
(0%)
83-19
(81.4%)
91-11
(89.2%)
88-15
(85.4%)
91-12
(88.3%)
69-9
(88.5%)
24-8
(75%)
10-6
(62.5%)
456-81
(84.9%)
Connecticut1-0
(100%)
47-13
(78.3%)
24-8
(75%)
45-8
(84.9%)
54-16
(77.1%)
61-8
(88.4%)
60-7
(89.6%)
15-1
(93.8%)
307-61
(83.4%)
Delaware 21-1
(95.5%)
17-5
(77.3%)
20-2
(90.9%)
20-1
(95.2%)
20-2
(90.9%)
17-3
(85%)
3-3
(50%)
118-17
(87.4%)
District of Columbia 11-0
(100%)
11-0
(100%)
6-3
(66.7%)
6-0
(100%)
6-0
(100%)
5-0
(100%)
3-0
(100%)
48-3
(94.1%)
Florida 170-41
(80.6%)
207-34
(85.9%)
189-43
(81.5%)
194-42
(82.2%)
173-38
(82%)
86-13
(86.9%)
39-10
(79.6%)
1058-221
(82.7%)
Georgia 151-27
(84.8%)
164-34
(82.8%)
165-36
(82.1%)
169-30
(84.9%)
168-39
(81.2%)
102-18
(85%)
53-15
(77.9%)
972-199
(83%)
Hawaii 13-2
(86.7%)
9-3
(75%)
7-2
(77.8%)
1-1
(50%)
5-1
(83.3%)
2-0
(100%)
2-1
(66.7%)
39-10
(79.6%)
Idaho 32-9
(78%)
32-8
(80%)
34-7
(82.9%)
18-2
(90%)
15-1
(93.8%)
6-2
(75%)
3-1
(75%)
140-30
(82.4%)
Illinois 235-39
(85.8%)
223-43
(83.8%)
215-44
(83%)
104-25
(80.6%)
52-15
(77.6%)
30-5
(85.7%)
12-6
(66.7%)
871-177
(83.1%)
Indiana 131-31
(80.9%)
128-21
(85.9%)
104-21
(83.2%)
84-12
(87.5%)
35-13
(72.9%)
15-9
(62.5%)
4-8
(33.3%)
501-115
(81.3%)
Iowa 106-24
(81.5%)
117-21
(84.8%)
117-17
(87.3%)
32-8
(80%)
17-3
(85%)
3-7
(30%)
4-1
(80%)
396-81
(83%)
Kansas 93-19
(83%)
92-21
(81.4%)
89-23
(79.5%)
97-13
(88.2%)
52-11
(82.5%)
19-5
(79.2%)
9-3
(75%)
451-95
(82.6%)
Kentucky 74-11
(87.1%)
90-9
(90.9%)
88-13
(87.1%)
75-13
(85.2%)
82-10
(89.1%)
37-11
(77.1%)
18-6
(75%)
464-73
(86.4%)
Louisiana 115-25
(82.1%)
117-24
(83%)
125-17
(88%)
123-17
(87.9%)
120-22
(84.5%)
87-13
(87%)
46-10
(82.1%)
733-128
(85.1%)
Maine 27-4
(87.1%)
30-8
(78.9%)
32-7
(82.1%)
18-6
(75%)
12-6
(66.7%)
5-4
(55.6%)
3-1
(75%)
127-36
(77.9%)
Maryland 86-25
(77.5%)
91-23
(79.8%)
99-13
(88.4%)
91-17
(84.3%)
88-16
(84.6%)
33-9
(78.6%)
17-3
(85%)
505-106
(82.7%)
Massachusetts1-2
(33.3%)
118-26
(81.9%)
111-27
(80.4%)
118-23
(83.7%)
118-25
(82.5%)
112-31
(78.3%)
95-42
(69.3%)
8-5
(61.5%)
681-181
(79%)
Michigan 225-35
(86.5%)
221-35
(86.3%)
184-39
(82.5%)
103-25
(80.5%)
50-14
(78.1%)
24-8
(75%)
14-2
(87.5%)
821-158
(83.9%)
Minnesota 111-34
(76.6%)
119-26
(82.1%)
113-28
(80.1%)
156-36
(81.3%)
39-9
(81.3%)
18-6
(75%)
11-1
(91.7%)
567-140
(80.2%)
Mississippi 119-23
(83.8%)
124-22
(84.9%)
122-23
(84.1%)
106-22
(82.8%)
90-14
(86.5%)
45-12
(78.9%)
22-7
(75.9%)
628-123
(83.6%)
Missouri 122-28
(81.3%)
76-9
(89.4%)
135-14
(90.6%)
69-19
(78.4%)
33-11
(75%)
15-7
(68.2%)
9-2
(81.8%)
459-90
(83.6%)
Montana 26-5
(83.9%)
24-7
(77.4%)
26-4
(86.7%)
15-4
(78.9%)
9-3
(75%)
5-1
(83.3%)
2-1
(66.7%)
107-25
(81.1%)
Nebraska 63-8
(88.7%)
63-9
(87.5%)
57-13
(81.4%)
26-6
(81.3%)
12-4
(75%)
5-3
(62.5%)
 226-43
(84%)
Nevada 26-3
(89.7%)
30-4
(88.2%)
31-4
(88.6%)
31-3
(91.2%)
21-2
(91.3%)
13-1
(92.9%)
7-0
(100%)
159-17
(90.3%)
New Hampshire 17-2
(89.5%)
25-2
(92.6%)
19-7
(73.1%)
23-3
(88.5%)
10-2
(83.3%)
4-2
(66.7%)
1-2
(33.3%)
99-20
(83.2%)
New Jersey2-0
(100%)
132-22
(85.7%)
132-21
(86.3%)
133-24
(84.7%)
121-24
(83.4%)
134-13
(91.2%)
123-33
(78.8%)
38-9
(80.9%)
815-146
(84.8%)
New Mexico 28-14
(66.7%)
33-2
(94.3%)
32-7
(82.1%)
32-6
(84.2%)
34-3
(91.9%)
17-0
(100%)
14-2
(87.5%)
190-34
(84.8%)
New York19-13
(59.4%)
234-64
(78.5%)
227-50
(81.9%)
247-42
(85.5%)
185-50
(78.7%)
92-17
(84.4%)
43-13
(76.8%)
24-10
(70.6%)
1071-259
(80.5%)
North Carolina 147-33
(81.7%)
154-25
(86%)
158-23
(87.3%)
149-29
(83.7%)
152-26
(85.4%)
87-14
(86.1%)
56-10
(84.8%)
903-160
(84.9%)
North Dakota 23-4
(85.2%)
22-5
(81.5%)
8-0
(100%)
8-2
(80%)
6-0
(100%)
2-1
(66.7%)
 69-12
(85.2%)
Ohio 302-62
(83%)
306-58
(84.1%)
310-54
(85.2%)
290-70
(80.6%)
92-20
(82.1%)
45-11
(80.4%)
20-8
(71.4%)
1365-283
(82.8%)
Oklahoma 90-16
(84.9%)
90-16
(84.9%)
88-13
(87.1%)
89-19
(82.4%)
96-12
(88.9%)
60-12
(83.3%)
23-13
(63.9%)
536-101
(84.1%)
Oregon 68-22
(75.6%)
78-10
(88.6%)
71-18
(79.8%)
67-13
(83.8%)
40-8
(83.3%)
20-4
(83.3%)
8-4
(66.7%)
352-79
(81.7%)
Pennsylvania 241-44
(84.6%)
247-42
(85.5%)
241-42
(85.2%)
215-38
(85%)
161-25
(86.6%)
80-14
(85.1%)
35-11
(76.1%)
1220-216
(85%)
Rhode Island 16-3
(84.2%)
14-5
(73.7%)
16-2
(88.9%)
15-3
(83.3%)
15-3
(83.3%)
10-2
(83.3%)
6-0
(100%)
92-18
(83.6%)
South Carolina 89-20
(81.7%)
93-16
(85.3%)
92-20
(82.1%)
98-10
(90.7%)
71-12
(85.5%)
37-9
(80.4%)
16-7
(69.6%)
496-94
(84.1%)
South Dakota 24-3
(88.9%)
22-6
(78.6%)
20-6
(76.9%)
15-1
(93.8%)
7-1
(87.5%)
3-1
(75%)
 91-18
(83.5%)
Tennessee 117-22
(84.2%)
88-18
(83%)
126-32
(79.7%)
137-24
(85.1%)
99-11
(90%)
51-9
(85%)
22-8
(73.3%)
640-124
(83.8%)
Texas 314-69
(82%)
457-85
(84.3%)
471-76
(86.1%)
462-86
(84.3%)
457-94
(82.9%)
440-94
(82.4%)
300-51
(85.5%)
2901-555
(83.9%)
Utah 44-6
(88%)
44-4
(91.7%)
25-5
(83.3%)
34-3
(91.9%)
14-4
(77.8%)
7-2
(77.8%)
2-1
(66.7%)
170-25
(87.2%)
Vermont 13-2
(86.7%)
13-2
(86.7%)
13-2
(86.7%)
12-2
(85.7%)
5-1
(83.3%)
2-1
(66.7%)
 58-10
(85.3%)
Virginia 148-24
(86%)
144-27
(84.2%)
144-26
(84.7%)
132-32
(80.5%)
135-25
(84.4%)
86-13
(86.9%)
37-15
(71.2%)
826-162
(83.6%)
Washington 122-22
(84.7%)
119-27
(81.5%)
118-26
(81.9%)
113-20
(85%)
91-18
(83.5%)
30-10
(75%)
17-3
(85%)
610-126
(82.9%)
West Virginia 46-10
(82.1%)
54-2
(96.4%)
46-12
(79.3%)
45-9
(83.3%)
46-5
(90.2%)
21-3
(87.5%)
10-2
(83.3%)
268-43
(86.2%)
Wisconsin 164-25
(86.8%)
158-23
(87.3%)
97-15
(86.6%)
45-11
(80.4%)
19-9
(67.9%)
11-3
(78.6%)
4-3
(57.1%)
498-89
(84.8%)
Wyoming 22-2
(91.7%)
20-3
(87%)
22-1
(95.7%)
15-1
(93.8%)
7-1
(87.5%)
1-3
(25%)
 87-11
(88.8%)
Prep Schools0-1
(0%)
32-6
(84.2%)
30-8
(78.9%)
36-4
(90%)
29-9
(76.3%)
23-12
(65.7%)
22-7
(75.9%)
5-2
(71.4%)
177-49
(78.3%)
 
NATIONAL23-17
(57.5%)
5330-1085
(83.1%)
5387-1008
(84.2%)
5492-975
(84.9%)
4862-946
(83.7%)
3819-734
(83.9%)
2352-533
(81.5%)
1171-320
(78.5%)
28436-5618
(83.5%)


Note: By comparison, blindly picking the team with the better record (and the home team in case of equal records), would have yielded the following percentage for the part of the season we pick:  66.8%
(In other words, anything up around 75-80% is pretty good, but it's important to understand that it's easy to pick 70% in regular-season high school football, due to the large number of mismatched games.)

out-of-state: 81.3% (in 423 games)