2016 PROJECTION ACCURACY BREAKDOWN      2015 data


State9/3010/710/1410/2110/2811/411/1111/1811/2512/212/912/1612/23TOTALS
Alabama1-0
(100%)
172-26
(86.9%)
171-29
(85.5%)
174-23
(88.3%)
144-31
(82.3%)
97-19
(83.6%)
48-9
(84.2%)
26-4
(86.7%)
8-4
(66.7%)
6-1
(85.7%)
   847-146
(85.3%)
Alaska5-2
(71.4%)
6-2
(75%)
3-1
(75%)
1-0
(100%)
         15-5
(75%)
Arizona1-0
(100%)
87-13
(87%)
78-15
(83.9%)
91-10
(90.1%)
87-11
(88.8%)
38-4
(90.5%)
18-4
(81.8%)
7-4
(63.6%)
3-2
(60%)
   1-0
(100%)
411-63
(86.7%)
Arkansas 82-18
(82%)
84-16
(84%)
83-17
(83%)
83-17
(83%)
88-12
(88%)
44-14
(75.9%)
27-9
(75%)
16-2
(88.9%)
4-5
(44.4%)
2-1
(66.7%)
  513-111
(82.2%)
California15-4
(78.9%)
414-77
(84.3%)
417-72
(85.3%)
414-84
(83.1%)
416-80
(83.9%)
419-83
(83.5%)
221-51
(81.3%)
133-38
(77.8%)
66-18
(78.6%)
26-12
(68.4%)
19-5
(79.2%)
8-5
(61.5%)
 2568-529
(82.9%)
Colorado12-1
(92.3%)
91-12
(88.3%)
93-11
(89.4%)
91-13
(87.5%)
90-14
(86.5%)
71-8
(89.9%)
29-3
(90.6%)
8-8
(50%)
7-1
(87.5%)
2-1
(66.7%)
   494-72
(87.3%)
Connecticut16-4
(80%)
25-13
(65.8%)
35-10
(77.8%)
47-11
(81%)
58-12
(82.9%)
59-12
(83.1%)
60-10
(85.7%)
13-4
(76.5%)
55-10
(84.6%)
10-6
(62.5%)
10-2
(83.3%)
  388-94
(80.5%)
Delaware9-4
(69.2%)
21-3
(87.5%)
20-2
(90.9%)
20-2
(90.9%)
18-4
(81.8%)
19-3
(86.4%)
16-6
(72.7%)
5-1
(83.3%)
3-1
(75%)
2-0
(100%)
   133-26
(83.6%)
District of Columbia0-2
(0%)
10-0
(100%)
8-0
(100%)
10-0
(100%)
5-0
(100%)
4-2
(66.7%)
7-0
(100%)
2-1
(66.7%)
3-0
(100%)
1-0
(100%)
   50-5
(90.9%)
Florida4-2
(66.7%)
77-22
(77.8%)
233-50
(82.3%)
214-33
(86.6%)
203-35
(85.3%)
176-40
(81.5%)
88-14
(86.3%)
37-14
(72.5%)
17-7
(70.8%)
7-1
(87.5%)
8-0
(100%)
 1-0
(100%)
1065-218
(83%)
Georgia6-2
(75%)
137-30
(82%)
182-26
(87.5%)
176-36
(83%)
181-35
(83.8%)
169-39
(81.3%)
96-20
(82.8%)
60-6
(90.9%)
29-3
(90.6%)
12-4
(75%)
6-2
(75%)
 1-0
(100%)
1055-203
(83.9%)
Hawaii5-1
(83.3%)
14-3
(82.4%)
15-1
(93.8%)
7-5
(58.3%)
2-1
(66.7%)
6-2
(75%)
5-1
(83.3%)
2-1
(66.7%)
     56-15
(78.9%)
Idaho 32-9
(78%)
36-4
(90%)
37-4
(90.2%)
18-2
(90%)
12-4
(75%)
8-0
(100%)
1-3
(25%)
     144-26
(84.7%)
Illinois32-4
(88.9%)
236-45
(84%)
242-37
(86.7%)
231-38
(85.9%)
109-19
(85.2%)
47-22
(68.1%)
20-13
(60.6%)
13-4
(76.5%)
8-1
(88.9%)
    938-183
(83.7%)
Indiana6-0
(100%)
129-36
(78.2%)
121-22
(84.6%)
114-15
(88.4%)
88-9
(90.7%)
39-10
(79.6%)
15-9
(62.5%)
9-3
(75%)
5-1
(83.3%)
    526-105
(83.4%)
Iowa 116-20
(85.3%)
118-18
(86.8%)
116-20
(85.3%)
34-6
(85%)
15-5
(75%)
9-1
(90%)
5-0
(100%)
     413-70
(85.5%)
Kansas 14-3
(82.4%)
94-21
(81.7%)
97-17
(85.1%)
101-13
(88.6%)
52-12
(81.3%)
18-5
(78.3%)
7-5
(58.3%)
3-3
(50%)
    386-79
(83%)
Kentucky 81-12
(87.1%)
94-10
(90.4%)
89-15
(85.6%)
84-17
(83.2%)
85-8
(91.4%)
44-4
(91.7%)
14-10
(58.3%)
10-2
(83.3%)
6-0
(100%)
   507-78
(86.7%)
Louisiana2-1
(66.7%)
122-18
(87.1%)
117-26
(81.8%)
123-22
(84.8%)
122-21
(85.3%)
120-18
(87%)
88-13
(87.1%)
51-5
(91.1%)
18-10
(64.3%)
11-3
(78.6%)
2-3
(40%)
  776-140
(84.7%)
Maine8-0
(100%)
30-6
(83.3%)
29-7
(80.6%)
31-4
(88.6%)
20-3
(87%)
13-3
(81.3%)
4-4
(50%)
3-1
(75%)
1-0
(100%)
    139-28
(83.2%)
Maryland23-3
(88.5%)
102-16
(86.4%)
89-23
(79.5%)
91-20
(82%)
94-14
(87%)
89-17
(84%)
36-9
(80%)
13-5
(72.2%)
10-1
(90.9%)
 4-0
(100%)
  551-108
(83.6%)
Massachusetts21-2
(91.3%)
115-27
(81%)
110-30
(78.6%)
117-22
(84.2%)
127-19
(87%)
115-28
(80.4%)
105-35
(75%)
9-1
(90%)
115-22
(83.9%)
6-4
(60%)
   840-190
(81.6%)
Michigan5-1
(83.3%)
222-34
(86.7%)
227-37
(86%)
186-41
(81.9%)
105-23
(82%)
51-12
(81%)
20-12
(62.5%)
12-4
(75%)
5-3
(62.5%)
    833-167
(83.3%)
Minnesota6-2
(75%)
121-26
(82.3%)
126-21
(85.7%)
108-33
(76.6%)
154-33
(82.4%)
38-12
(76%)
22-2
(91.7%)
8-4
(66.7%)
3-3
(50%)
    586-136
(81.2%)
Mississippi 129-19
(87.2%)
129-19
(87.2%)
123-26
(82.6%)
115-20
(85.2%)
92-12
(88.5%)
47-9
(83.9%)
21-7
(75%)
11-1
(91.7%)
6-0
(100%)
   673-113
(85.6%)
Missouri14-3
(82.4%)
132-28
(82.5%)
125-32
(79.6%)
131-20
(86.8%)
73-15
(83%)
39-5
(88.6%)
13-9
(59.1%)
6-5
(54.5%)
4-2
(66.7%)
    537-119
(81.9%)
Montana 27-6
(81.8%)
33-3
(91.7%)
27-6
(81.8%)
17-2
(89.5%)
7-5
(58.3%)
6-0
(100%)
2-1
(66.7%)
     119-23
(83.8%)
Nebraska 61-12
(83.6%)
66-6
(91.7%)
61-11
(84.7%)
26-5
(83.9%)
11-5
(68.8%)
6-2
(75%)
 2-2
(50%)
    233-43
(84.4%)
Nevada2-0
(100%)
29-4
(87.9%)
30-2
(93.8%)
24-8
(75%)
22-6
(78.6%)
17-5
(77.3%)
12-0
(100%)
5-1
(83.3%)
2-0
(100%)
1-0
(100%)
   144-26
(84.7%)
New Hampshire9-3
(75%)
19-2
(90.5%)
25-4
(86.2%)
23-4
(85.2%)
26-5
(83.9%)
11-1
(91.7%)
3-3
(50%)
2-1
(66.7%)
1-0
(100%)
    119-23
(83.8%)
New Jersey26-11
(70.3%)
126-28
(81.8%)
125-29
(81.2%)
123-28
(81.5%)
125-19
(86.8%)
128-22
(85.3%)
123-27
(82%)
36-14
(72%)
51-15
(77.3%)
18-5
(78.3%)
   881-198
(81.6%)
New Mexico3-2
(60%)
34-7
(82.9%)
28-8
(77.8%)
35-5
(87.5%)
34-7
(82.9%)
38-3
(92.7%)
12-5
(70.6%)
15-1
(93.8%)
6-2
(75%)
4-0
(100%)
   209-40
(83.9%)
New York110-26
(80.9%)
240-57
(80.8%)
215-66
(76.5%)
231-62
(78.8%)
184-55
(77%)
82-24
(77.4%)
44-14
(75.9%)
27-7
(79.4%)
12-6
(66.7%)
2-2
(50%)
   1147-319
(78.2%)
North Carolina6-0
(100%)
145-31
(82.4%)
124-29
(81%)
161-29
(84.7%)
158-30
(84%)
159-27
(85.5%)
34-4
(89.5%)
111-19
(85.4%)
54-10
(84.4%)
23-9
(71.9%)
10-6
(62.5%)
6-2
(75%)
 991-196
(83.5%)
North Dakota 20-8
(71.4%)
23-5
(82.1%)
17-2
(89.5%)
10-2
(83.3%)
2-4
(33.3%)
3-0
(100%)
      75-21
(78.1%)
Ohio14-5
(73.7%)
311-55
(85%)
302-64
(82.5%)
316-49
(86.6%)
305-61
(83.3%)
93-19
(83%)
42-14
(75%)
19-9
(67.9%)
9-5
(64.3%)
4-3
(57.1%)
   1415-284
(83.3%)
Oklahoma 90-16
(84.9%)
76-21
(78.4%)
86-17
(83.5%)
88-15
(85.4%)
92-10
(90.2%)
63-9
(87.5%)
25-11
(69.4%)
13-3
(81.3%)
7-3
(70%)
3-0
(100%)
  543-105
(83.8%)
Oregon1-0
(100%)
74-15
(83.1%)
69-15
(82.1%)
77-15
(83.7%)
67-11
(85.9%)
38-9
(80.9%)
14-10
(58.3%)
7-5
(58.3%)
6-0
(100%)
1-0
(100%)
   354-80
(81.6%)
Pennsylvania30-5
(85.7%)
237-50
(82.6%)
239-50
(82.7%)
228-52
(81.4%)
221-40
(84.7%)
155-27
(85.2%)
76-17
(81.7%)
40-7
(85.1%)
35-6
(85.4%)
10-2
(83.3%)
3-3
(50%)
  1274-259
(83.1%)
Rhode Island4-1
(80%)
18-2
(90%)
14-5
(73.7%)
15-3
(83.3%)
17-3
(85%)
14-7
(66.7%)
10-2
(83.3%)
5-1
(83.3%)
16-4
(80%)
4-0
(100%)
   117-28
(80.7%)
South Carolina 23-9
(71.9%)
66-13
(83.5%)
86-14
(86%)
80-17
(82.5%)
68-16
(81%)
30-5
(85.7%)
64-11
(85.3%)
32-8
(80%)
18-2
(90%)
9-1
(90%)
3-2
(60%)
 479-98
(83%)
South Dakota1-0
(100%)
22-5
(81.5%)
21-6
(77.8%)
21-6
(77.8%)
18-1
(94.7%)
11-1
(91.7%)
3-1
(75%)
      97-20
(82.9%)
Tennessee 110-18
(85.9%)
112-22
(83.6%)
135-24
(84.9%)
142-20
(87.7%)
95-10
(90.5%)
39-17
(69.6%)
21-7
(75%)
9-3
(75%)
4-4
(50%)
   667-125
(84.2%)
Texas15-2
(88.2%)
449-100
(81.8%)
449-106
(80.9%)
466-93
(83.4%)
461-92
(83.4%)
454-82
(84.7%)
289-57
(83.5%)
135-43
(75.8%)
67-22
(75.3%)
33-11
(75%)
11-9
(55%)
9-1
(90%)
 2838-618
(82.1%)
Utah 43-10
(81.1%)
41-7
(85.4%)
34-12
(73.9%)
26-9
(74.3%)
13-5
(72.2%)
6-3
(66.7%)
3-0
(100%)
    1-0
(100%)
167-46
(78.4%)
Vermont6-0
(100%)
14-2
(87.5%)
12-4
(75%)
14-1
(93.3%)
14-1
(93.3%)
5-1
(83.3%)
2-1
(66.7%)
      67-10
(87%)
Virginia13-1
(92.9%)
154-37
(80.6%)
147-37
(79.9%)
148-23
(86.5%)
157-15
(91.3%)
138-22
(86.3%)
84-11
(88.4%)
47-6
(88.7%)
21-4
(84%)
10-2
(83.3%)
4-2
(66.7%)
  923-160
(85.2%)
Washington4-0
(100%)
123-23
(84.2%)
106-22
(82.8%)
129-22
(85.4%)
115-25
(82.1%)
93-23
(80.2%)
36-6
(85.7%)
15-5
(75%)
8-2
(80%)
4-1
(80%)
   633-129
(83.1%)
West Virginia2-0
(100%)
52-9
(85.2%)
50-9
(84.7%)
50-7
(87.7%)
51-7
(87.9%)
36-11
(76.6%)
21-3
(87.5%)
9-3
(75%)
5-1
(83.3%)
2-1
(66.7%)
   278-51
(84.5%)
Wisconsin10-2
(83.3%)
163-33
(83.2%)
161-27
(85.6%)
96-16
(85.7%)
44-12
(78.6%)
20-8
(71.4%)
10-4
(71.4%)
6-1
(85.7%)
     510-103
(83.2%)
Wyoming 19-5
(79.2%)
23-1
(95.8%)
21-3
(87.5%)
13-3
(81.3%)
3-5
(37.5%)
2-2
(50%)
      81-19
(81%)
Prep Schools29-4
(87.9%)
26-12
(68.4%)
31-7
(81.6%)
33-5
(86.8%)
36-6
(85.7%)
29-7
(80.6%)
23-6
(79.3%)
6-1
(85.7%)
     213-48
(81.6%)
 
NATIONAL464-99
(82.4%)
5302-1063
(83.3%)
5539-1100
(83.4%)
5547-1043
(84.2%)
4952-919
(84.3%)
3755-750
(83.4%)
2067-480
(81.2%)
1089-301
(78.3%)
743-190
(79.6%)
244-82
(74.8%)
91-34
(72.8%)
26-10
(72.2%)
2-0
(100%)
29821-6071
(83.1%)


Note: By comparison, blindly picking the team with the better record (and the home team in case of equal records), would have yielded the following percentage for the part of the season we pick:  66.6%
(In other words, anything up around 75-80% is pretty good, but it's important to understand that it's easy to pick 70% in regular-season high school football, due to the large number of mismatched games.)

out-of-state: 86.1% (in 399 games)