2016 PROJECTION ACCURACY BREAKDOWN      2015 data


State9/3010/710/1410/2110/2811/411/1111/1811/2512/212/912/1612/23TOTALS
Alabama1-0
(100%)		172-26
(86.9%)		171-29
(85.5%)		174-23
(88.3%)		144-31
(82.3%)		97-19
(83.6%)		48-9
(84.2%)		26-4
(86.7%)		8-4
(66.7%)		6-1
(85.7%)		   847-146
(85.3%)
Alaska5-2
(71.4%)		6-2
(75%)		3-1
(75%)		1-0
(100%)		         15-5
(75%)
Arizona1-0
(100%)		87-13
(87%)		78-15
(83.9%)		91-10
(90.1%)		87-11
(88.8%)		38-4
(90.5%)		18-4
(81.8%)		7-4
(63.6%)		3-2
(60%)		   1-0
(100%)		411-63
(86.7%)
Arkansas 82-18
(82%)		84-16
(84%)		83-17
(83%)		83-17
(83%)		88-12
(88%)		44-14
(75.9%)		27-9
(75%)		16-2
(88.9%)		4-5
(44.4%)		2-1
(66.7%)		  513-111
(82.2%)
California15-4
(78.9%)		414-77
(84.3%)		417-72
(85.3%)		414-84
(83.1%)		416-80
(83.9%)		419-83
(83.5%)		221-51
(81.3%)		133-38
(77.8%)		66-18
(78.6%)		26-12
(68.4%)		19-5
(79.2%)		8-5
(61.5%)		 2568-529
(82.9%)
Colorado12-1
(92.3%)		91-12
(88.3%)		93-11
(89.4%)		91-13
(87.5%)		90-14
(86.5%)		71-8
(89.9%)		29-3
(90.6%)		8-8
(50%)		7-1
(87.5%)		2-1
(66.7%)		   494-72
(87.3%)
Connecticut16-4
(80%)		25-13
(65.8%)		35-10
(77.8%)		47-11
(81%)		58-12
(82.9%)		59-12
(83.1%)		60-10
(85.7%)		13-4
(76.5%)		55-10
(84.6%)		10-6
(62.5%)		10-2
(83.3%)		  388-94
(80.5%)
Delaware9-4
(69.2%)		21-3
(87.5%)		20-2
(90.9%)		20-2
(90.9%)		18-4
(81.8%)		19-3
(86.4%)		16-6
(72.7%)		5-1
(83.3%)		3-1
(75%)		2-0
(100%)		   133-26
(83.6%)
District of Columbia0-2
(0%)		10-0
(100%)		8-0
(100%)		10-0
(100%)		5-0
(100%)		4-2
(66.7%)		7-0
(100%)		2-1
(66.7%)		3-0
(100%)		1-0
(100%)		   50-5
(90.9%)
Florida4-2
(66.7%)		77-22
(77.8%)		233-50
(82.3%)		214-33
(86.6%)		203-35
(85.3%)		176-40
(81.5%)		88-14
(86.3%)		37-14
(72.5%)		17-7
(70.8%)		7-1
(87.5%)		8-0
(100%)		 1-0
(100%)		1065-218
(83%)
Georgia6-2
(75%)		137-30
(82%)		182-26
(87.5%)		176-36
(83%)		181-35
(83.8%)		169-39
(81.3%)		96-20
(82.8%)		60-6
(90.9%)		29-3
(90.6%)		12-4
(75%)		6-2
(75%)		 1-0
(100%)		1055-203
(83.9%)
Hawaii5-1
(83.3%)		14-3
(82.4%)		15-1
(93.8%)		7-5
(58.3%)		2-1
(66.7%)		6-2
(75%)		5-1
(83.3%)		2-1
(66.7%)		     56-15
(78.9%)
Idaho 32-9
(78%)		36-4
(90%)		37-4
(90.2%)		18-2
(90%)		12-4
(75%)		8-0
(100%)		1-3
(25%)		     144-26
(84.7%)
Illinois32-4
(88.9%)		236-45
(84%)		242-37
(86.7%)		231-38
(85.9%)		109-19
(85.2%)		47-22
(68.1%)		20-13
(60.6%)		13-4
(76.5%)		8-1
(88.9%)		    938-183
(83.7%)
Indiana6-0
(100%)		129-36
(78.2%)		121-22
(84.6%)		114-15
(88.4%)		88-9
(90.7%)		39-10
(79.6%)		15-9
(62.5%)		9-3
(75%)		5-1
(83.3%)		    526-105
(83.4%)
Iowa 116-20
(85.3%)		118-18
(86.8%)		116-20
(85.3%)		34-6
(85%)		15-5
(75%)		9-1
(90%)		5-0
(100%)		     413-70
(85.5%)
Kansas 14-3
(82.4%)		94-21
(81.7%)		97-17
(85.1%)		101-13
(88.6%)		52-12
(81.3%)		18-5
(78.3%)		7-5
(58.3%)		3-3
(50%)		    386-79
(83%)
Kentucky 81-12
(87.1%)		94-10
(90.4%)		89-15
(85.6%)		84-17
(83.2%)		85-8
(91.4%)		44-4
(91.7%)		14-10
(58.3%)		10-2
(83.3%)		6-0
(100%)		   507-78
(86.7%)
Louisiana2-1
(66.7%)		122-18
(87.1%)		117-26
(81.8%)		123-22
(84.8%)		122-21
(85.3%)		120-18
(87%)		88-13
(87.1%)		51-5
(91.1%)		18-10
(64.3%)		11-3
(78.6%)		2-3
(40%)		  776-140
(84.7%)
Maine8-0
(100%)		30-6
(83.3%)		29-7
(80.6%)		31-4
(88.6%)		20-3
(87%)		13-3
(81.3%)		4-4
(50%)		3-1
(75%)		1-0
(100%)		    139-28
(83.2%)
Maryland23-3
(88.5%)		102-16
(86.4%)		89-23
(79.5%)		91-20
(82%)		94-14
(87%)		89-17
(84%)		36-9
(80%)		13-5
(72.2%)		10-1
(90.9%)		 4-0
(100%)		  551-108
(83.6%)
Massachusetts21-2
(91.3%)		115-27
(81%)		110-30
(78.6%)		117-22
(84.2%)		127-19
(87%)		115-28
(80.4%)		105-35
(75%)		9-1
(90%)		115-22
(83.9%)		6-4
(60%)		   840-190
(81.6%)
Michigan5-1
(83.3%)		222-34
(86.7%)		227-37
(86%)		186-41
(81.9%)		105-23
(82%)		51-12
(81%)		20-12
(62.5%)		12-4
(75%)		5-3
(62.5%)		    833-167
(83.3%)
Minnesota6-2
(75%)		121-26
(82.3%)		126-21
(85.7%)		108-33
(76.6%)		154-33
(82.4%)		38-12
(76%)		22-2
(91.7%)		8-4
(66.7%)		3-3
(50%)		    586-136
(81.2%)
Mississippi 129-19
(87.2%)		129-19
(87.2%)		123-26
(82.6%)		115-20
(85.2%)		92-12
(88.5%)		47-9
(83.9%)		21-7
(75%)		11-1
(91.7%)		6-0
(100%)		   673-113
(85.6%)
Missouri14-3
(82.4%)		132-28
(82.5%)		125-32
(79.6%)		131-20
(86.8%)		73-15
(83%)		39-5
(88.6%)		13-9
(59.1%)		6-5
(54.5%)		4-2
(66.7%)		    537-119
(81.9%)
Montana 27-6
(81.8%)		33-3
(91.7%)		27-6
(81.8%)		17-2
(89.5%)		7-5
(58.3%)		6-0
(100%)		2-1
(66.7%)		     119-23
(83.8%)
Nebraska 61-12
(83.6%)		66-6
(91.7%)		61-11
(84.7%)		26-5
(83.9%)		11-5
(68.8%)		6-2
(75%)		 2-2
(50%)		    233-43
(84.4%)
Nevada2-0
(100%)		29-4
(87.9%)		30-2
(93.8%)		24-8
(75%)		22-6
(78.6%)		17-5
(77.3%)		12-0
(100%)		5-1
(83.3%)		2-0
(100%)		1-0
(100%)		   144-26
(84.7%)
New Hampshire9-3
(75%)		19-2
(90.5%)		25-4
(86.2%)		23-4
(85.2%)		26-5
(83.9%)		11-1
(91.7%)		3-3
(50%)		2-1
(66.7%)		1-0
(100%)		    119-23
(83.8%)
New Jersey26-11
(70.3%)		126-28
(81.8%)		125-29
(81.2%)		123-28
(81.5%)		125-19
(86.8%)		128-22
(85.3%)		123-27
(82%)		36-14
(72%)		51-15
(77.3%)		18-5
(78.3%)		   881-198
(81.6%)
New Mexico3-2
(60%)		34-7
(82.9%)		28-8
(77.8%)		35-5
(87.5%)		34-7
(82.9%)		38-3
(92.7%)		12-5
(70.6%)		15-1
(93.8%)		6-2
(75%)		4-0
(100%)		   209-40
(83.9%)
New York110-26
(80.9%)		240-57
(80.8%)		215-66
(76.5%)		231-62
(78.8%)		184-55
(77%)		82-24
(77.4%)		44-14
(75.9%)		27-7
(79.4%)		12-6
(66.7%)		2-2
(50%)		   1147-319
(78.2%)
North Carolina6-0
(100%)		145-31
(82.4%)		124-29
(81%)		161-29
(84.7%)		158-30
(84%)		159-27
(85.5%)		34-4
(89.5%)		111-19
(85.4%)		54-10
(84.4%)		23-9
(71.9%)		10-6
(62.5%)		6-2
(75%)		 991-196
(83.5%)
North Dakota 20-8
(71.4%)		23-5
(82.1%)		17-2
(89.5%)		10-2
(83.3%)		2-4
(33.3%)		3-0
(100%)		      75-21
(78.1%)
Ohio14-5
(73.7%)		311-55
(85%)		302-64
(82.5%)		316-49
(86.6%)		305-61
(83.3%)		93-19
(83%)		42-14
(75%)		19-9
(67.9%)		9-5
(64.3%)		4-3
(57.1%)		   1415-284
(83.3%)
Oklahoma 90-16
(84.9%)		76-21
(78.4%)		86-17
(83.5%)		88-15
(85.4%)		92-10
(90.2%)		63-9
(87.5%)		25-11
(69.4%)		13-3
(81.3%)		7-3
(70%)		3-0
(100%)		  543-105
(83.8%)
Oregon1-0
(100%)		74-15
(83.1%)		69-15
(82.1%)		77-15
(83.7%)		67-11
(85.9%)		38-9
(80.9%)		14-10
(58.3%)		7-5
(58.3%)		6-0
(100%)		1-0
(100%)		   354-80
(81.6%)
Pennsylvania30-5
(85.7%)		237-50
(82.6%)		239-50
(82.7%)		228-52
(81.4%)		221-40
(84.7%)		155-27
(85.2%)		76-17
(81.7%)		40-7
(85.1%)		35-6
(85.4%)		10-2
(83.3%)		3-3
(50%)		  1274-259
(83.1%)
Rhode Island4-1
(80%)		18-2
(90%)		14-5
(73.7%)		15-3
(83.3%)		17-3
(85%)		14-7
(66.7%)		10-2
(83.3%)		5-1
(83.3%)		16-4
(80%)		4-0
(100%)		   117-28
(80.7%)
South Carolina 23-9
(71.9%)		66-13
(83.5%)		86-14
(86%)		80-17
(82.5%)		68-16
(81%)		30-5
(85.7%)		64-11
(85.3%)		32-8
(80%)		18-2
(90%)		9-1
(90%)		3-2
(60%)		 479-98
(83%)
South Dakota1-0
(100%)		22-5
(81.5%)		21-6
(77.8%)		21-6
(77.8%)		18-1
(94.7%)		11-1
(91.7%)		3-1
(75%)		      97-20
(82.9%)
Tennessee 110-18
(85.9%)		112-22
(83.6%)		135-24
(84.9%)		142-20
(87.7%)		95-10
(90.5%)		39-17
(69.6%)		21-7
(75%)		9-3
(75%)		4-4
(50%)		   667-125
(84.2%)
Texas15-2
(88.2%)		449-100
(81.8%)		449-106
(80.9%)		466-93
(83.4%)		461-92
(83.4%)		454-82
(84.7%)		289-57
(83.5%)		135-43
(75.8%)		67-22
(75.3%)		33-11
(75%)		11-9
(55%)		9-1
(90%)		 2838-618
(82.1%)
Utah 43-10
(81.1%)		41-7
(85.4%)		34-12
(73.9%)		26-9
(74.3%)		13-5
(72.2%)		6-3
(66.7%)		3-0
(100%)		    1-0
(100%)		167-46
(78.4%)
Vermont6-0
(100%)		14-2
(87.5%)		12-4
(75%)		14-1
(93.3%)		14-1
(93.3%)		5-1
(83.3%)		2-1
(66.7%)		      67-10
(87%)
Virginia13-1
(92.9%)		154-37
(80.6%)		147-37
(79.9%)		148-23
(86.5%)		157-15
(91.3%)		138-22
(86.3%)		84-11
(88.4%)		47-6
(88.7%)		21-4
(84%)		10-2
(83.3%)		4-2
(66.7%)		  923-160
(85.2%)
Washington4-0
(100%)		123-23
(84.2%)		106-22
(82.8%)		129-22
(85.4%)		115-25
(82.1%)		93-23
(80.2%)		36-6
(85.7%)		15-5
(75%)		8-2
(80%)		4-1
(80%)		   633-129
(83.1%)
West Virginia2-0
(100%)		52-9
(85.2%)		50-9
(84.7%)		50-7
(87.7%)		51-7
(87.9%)		36-11
(76.6%)		21-3
(87.5%)		9-3
(75%)		5-1
(83.3%)		2-1
(66.7%)		   278-51
(84.5%)
Wisconsin10-2
(83.3%)		163-33
(83.2%)		161-27
(85.6%)		96-16
(85.7%)		44-12
(78.6%)		20-8
(71.4%)		10-4
(71.4%)		6-1
(85.7%)		     510-103
(83.2%)
Wyoming 19-5
(79.2%)		23-1
(95.8%)		21-3
(87.5%)		13-3
(81.3%)		3-5
(37.5%)		2-2
(50%)		      81-19
(81%)
Prep Schools29-4
(87.9%)		26-12
(68.4%)		31-7
(81.6%)		33-5
(86.8%)		36-6
(85.7%)		29-7
(80.6%)		23-6
(79.3%)		6-1
(85.7%)		     213-48
(81.6%)
 
NATIONAL464-99
(82.4%)		5302-1063
(83.3%)		5539-1100
(83.4%)		5547-1043
(84.2%)		4952-919
(84.3%)		3755-750
(83.4%)		2067-480
(81.2%)		1089-301
(78.3%)		743-190
(79.6%)		244-82
(74.8%)		91-34
(72.8%)		26-10
(72.2%)		2-0
(100%)		29821-6071
(83.1%)


Note: By comparison, blindly picking the team with the better record (and the home team in case of equal records), would have yielded the following percentage for the part of the season we pick:  66.6%
(In other words, anything up around 75-80% is pretty good, but it's important to understand that it's easy to pick 70% in regular-season high school football, due to the large number of mismatched games.)

out-of-state: 86.1% (in 399 games)