2015 PROJECTION ACCURACY BREAKDOWN      2014 data


State10/210/910/1610/2310/3011/611/1311/2011/2712/412/1112/18TOTALS
Alabama173-28
(86.1%)
164-31
(84.1%)
171-30
(85.1%)
159-38
(80.7%)
142-44
(76.3%)
100-16
(86.2%)
51-7
(87.9%)
16-13
(55.2%)
8-4
(66.7%)
5-2
(71.4%)
  989-213
(82.3%)
Alaska10-4
(71.4%)
7-1
(87.5%)
4-0
(100%)
1-0
(100%)
        22-5
(81.5%)
Arizona83-15
(84.7%)
83-15
(84.7%)
80-15
(84.2%)
84-12
(87.5%)
87-11
(88.8%)
38-2
(95%)
15-5
(75%)
5-5
(50%)
3-2
(60%)
   478-82
(85.4%)
Arkansas88-14
(86.3%)
84-16
(84%)
82-19
(81.2%)
76-22
(77.6%)
90-13
(87.4%)
81-19
(81%)
53-5
(91.4%)
28-8
(77.8%)
13-5
(72.2%)
4-5
(44.4%)
3-0
(100%)
 602-126
(82.7%)
California311-84
(78.7%)
423-74
(85.1%)
410-87
(82.5%)
429-65
(86.8%)
418-80
(83.9%)
419-79
(84.1%)
249-41
(85.9%)
137-46
(74.9%)
81-11
(88%)
28-12
(70%)
15-9
(62.5%)
7-6
(53.8%)
2927-594
(83.1%)
Colorado86-15
(85.1%)
88-14
(86.3%)
78-24
(76.5%)
85-17
(83.3%)
91-11
(89.2%)
61-20
(75.3%)
28-4
(87.5%)
11-5
(68.8%)
3-5
(37.5%)
2-1
(66.7%)
  533-116
(82.1%)
Connecticut53-8
(86.9%)
35-13
(72.9%)
35-10
(77.8%)
49-13
(79%)
56-7
(88.9%)
55-9
(85.9%)
48-16
(75%)
8-3
(72.7%)
53-9
(85.5%)
15-1
(93.8%)
9-3
(75%)
 416-92
(81.9%)
Delaware14-4
(77.8%)
23-3
(88.5%)
20-4
(83.3%)
22-0
(100%)
18-3
(85.7%)
14-6
(70%)
19-2
(90.5%)
4-1
(80%)
3-1
(75%)
0-2
(0%)
  137-26
(84%)
District of Columbia7-0
(100%)
3-0
(100%)
6-2
(75%)
8-1
(88.9%)
6-3
(66.7%)
7-1
(87.5%)
6-0
(100%)
4-0
(100%)
2-2
(50%)
1-0
(100%)
  50-9
(84.7%)
Florida164-40
(80.4%)
147-37
(79.9%)
171-41
(80.7%)
171-28
(85.9%)
159-36
(81.5%)
140-31
(81.9%)
89-9
(90.8%)
36-12
(75%)
18-6
(75%)
9-3
(75%)
4-0
(100%)
 1108-243
(82%)
Georgia147-34
(81.2%)
153-37
(80.5%)
164-31
(84.1%)
167-34
(83.1%)
184-24
(88.5%)
169-37
(82%)
82-11
(88.2%)
46-17
(73%)
21-9
(70%)
9-5
(64.3%)
3-4
(42.9%)
 1145-243
(82.5%)
Hawaii15-3
(83.3%)
16-2
(88.9%)
13-3
(81.3%)
8-0
(100%)
5-0
(100%)
4-0
(100%)
4-0
(100%)
0-2
(0%)
    65-10
(86.7%)
Idaho35-5
(87.5%)
36-5
(87.8%)
36-4
(90%)
38-3
(92.7%)
20-3
(87%)
12-4
(75%)
7-1
(87.5%)
1-3
(25%)
    185-28
(86.9%)
Illinois232-50
(82.3%)
232-49
(82.6%)
236-46
(83.7%)
245-38
(86.6%)
109-20
(84.5%)
53-14
(79.1%)
17-17
(50%)
16-4
(80%)
8-1
(88.9%)
   1148-239
(82.8%)
Indiana130-32
(80.2%)
135-27
(83.3%)
124-21
(85.5%)
128-18
(87.7%)
74-14
(84.1%)
38-6
(86.4%)
17-5
(77.3%)
8-2
(80%)
6-0
(100%)
   660-125
(84.1%)
Iowa122-16
(88.4%)
118-20
(85.5%)
122-16
(88.4%)
125-13
(90.6%)
66-14
(82.5%)
47-13
(78.3%)
6-4
(60%)
2-0
(100%)
3-0
(100%)
   611-96
(86.4%)
Kansas103-14
(88%)
101-15
(87.1%)
99-16
(86.1%)
101-14
(87.8%)
89-25
(78.1%)
51-13
(79.7%)
17-7
(70.8%)
10-2
(83.3%)
5-1
(83.3%)
   576-107
(84.3%)
Kentucky68-13
(84%)
77-10
(88.5%)
66-11
(85.7%)
90-6
(93.8%)
74-17
(81.3%)
91-4
(95.8%)
41-7
(85.4%)
19-5
(79.2%)
8-4
(66.7%)
5-1
(83.3%)
  539-78
(87.4%)
Louisiana112-29
(79.4%)
119-22
(84.4%)
125-16
(88.7%)
116-19
(85.9%)
123-16
(88.5%)
114-24
(82.6%)
86-9
(90.5%)
44-12
(78.6%)
23-5
(82.1%)
7-6
(53.8%)
5-0
(100%)
 874-158
(84.7%)
Maine33-4
(89.2%)
35-2
(94.6%)
28-9
(75.7%)
29-8
(78.4%)
17-5
(77.3%)
14-2
(87.5%)
7-1
(87.5%)
2-2
(50%)
1-0
(100%)
   166-33
(83.4%)
Maryland80-18
(81.6%)
73-20
(78.5%)
113-21
(84.3%)
97-16
(85.8%)
94-19
(83.2%)
96-12
(88.9%)
25-12
(67.6%)
11-6
(64.7%)
6-4
(60%)
4-1
(80%)
  599-129
(82.3%)
Massachusetts114-26
(81.4%)
119-23
(83.8%)
113-28
(80.1%)
113-28
(80.1%)
112-31
(78.3%)
105-38
(73.4%)
95-45
(67.9%)
11-1
(91.7%)
103-30
(77.4%)
4-4
(50%)
  889-254
(77.8%)
Michigan220-48
(82.1%)
225-41
(84.6%)
203-39
(83.9%)
197-40
(83.1%)
104-24
(81.3%)
50-14
(78.1%)
26-6
(81.3%)
10-6
(62.5%)
4-4
(50%)
   1039-222
(82.4%)
Minnesota120-28
(81.1%)
119-30
(79.9%)
133-19
(87.5%)
78-18
(81.3%)
19-5
(79.2%)
8-4
(66.7%)
5-1
(83.3%)
     482-105
(82.1%)
Mississippi95-16
(85.6%)
99-16
(86.1%)
92-21
(81.4%)
100-23
(81.3%)
108-15
(87.8%)
81-15
(84.4%)
42-14
(75%)
21-7
(75%)
9-3
(75%)
5-1
(83.3%)
  652-131
(83.3%)
Missouri137-30
(82%)
133-29
(82.1%)
129-35
(78.7%)
139-21
(86.9%)
71-16
(81.6%)
41-3
(93.2%)
16-6
(72.7%)
7-3
(70%)
3-4
(42.9%)
   676-147
(82.1%)
Montana30-5
(85.7%)
27-6
(81.8%)
26-8
(76.5%)
27-6
(81.8%)
17-1
(94.4%)
11-1
(91.7%)
6-0
(100%)
2-1
(66.7%)
    146-28
(83.9%)
Nebraska62-15
(80.5%)
64-12
(84.2%)
61-16
(79.2%)
69-7
(90.8%)
26-6
(81.3%)
13-3
(81.3%)
5-3
(62.5%)
 3-1
(75%)
   303-63
(82.8%)
Nevada27-5
(84.4%)
34-1
(97.1%)
27-5
(84.4%)
34-0
(100%)
22-6
(78.6%)
15-5
(75%)
11-1
(91.7%)
5-1
(83.3%)
2-0
(100%)
1-0
(100%)
  178-24
(88.1%)
New Hampshire20-8
(71.4%)
15-4
(78.9%)
20-8
(71.4%)
22-5
(81.5%)
25-3
(89.3%)
10-2
(83.3%)
4-2
(66.7%)
3-0
(100%)
0-1
(0%)
   119-33
(78.3%)
New Jersey114-36
(76%)
132-34
(79.5%)
131-26
(83.4%)
134-25
(84.3%)
130-30
(81.3%)
128-31
(80.5%)
130-29
(81.8%)
39-10
(79.6%)
55-14
(79.7%)
15-8
(65.2%)
  1008-243
(80.6%)
New Mexico29-10
(74.4%)
32-9
(78%)
26-8
(76.5%)
32-9
(78%)
40-0
(100%)
33-6
(84.6%)
15-2
(88.2%)
15-1
(93.8%)
5-2
(71.4%)
3-2
(60%)
  230-49
(82.4%)
New York209-44
(82.6%)
215-40
(84.3%)
193-40
(82.8%)
233-63
(78.7%)
181-57
(76.1%)
94-15
(86.2%)
43-11
(79.6%)
26-6
(81.3%)
14-3
(82.4%)
2-0
(100%)
  1210-279
(81.3%)
North Carolina79-11
(87.8%)
172-45
(79.3%)
147-33
(81.7%)
154-26
(85.6%)
151-26
(85.3%)
148-36
(80.4%)
105-26
(80.2%)
56-10
(84.8%)
25-7
(78.1%)
12-4
(75%)
7-1
(87.5%)
 1056-225
(82.4%)
North Dakota23-3
(88.5%)
22-5
(81.5%)
22-6
(78.6%)
18-2
(90%)
10-2
(83.3%)
4-2
(66.7%)
2-1
(66.7%)
     101-21
(82.8%)
Ohio282-65
(81.3%)
288-57
(83.5%)
298-52
(85.1%)
284-64
(81.6%)
283-69
(80.4%)
89-24
(78.8%)
46-10
(82.1%)
25-3
(89.3%)
11-3
(78.6%)
3-4
(42.9%)
  1609-351
(82.1%)
Oklahoma96-15
(86.5%)
82-19
(81.2%)
78-10
(88.6%)
77-16
(82.8%)
83-14
(85.6%)
78-16
(83%)
57-15
(79.2%)
26-10
(72.2%)
6-5
(54.5%)
12-3
(80%)
3-0
(100%)
 598-123
(82.9%)
Oregon62-21
(74.7%)
74-11
(87.1%)
69-17
(80.2%)
74-14
(84.1%)
61-14
(81.3%)
42-6
(87.5%)
19-5
(79.2%)
9-3
(75%)
4-2
(66.7%)
1-0
(100%)
  415-93
(81.7%)
Pennsylvania205-39
(84%)
210-43
(83%)
209-39
(84.3%)
198-45
(81.5%)
210-43
(83%)
172-41
(80.8%)
111-26
(81%)
52-16
(76.5%)
39-14
(73.6%)
12-4
(75%)
6-2
(75%)
2-2
(50%)
1426-314
(82%)
Rhode Island15-6
(71.4%)
17-4
(81%)
20-1
(95.2%)
20-1
(95.2%)
18-2
(90%)
17-3
(85%)
13-3
(81.3%)
6-0
(100%)
17-4
(81%)
4-0
(100%)
  147-24
(86%)
South Carolina69-11
(86.3%)
61-15
(80.3%)
107-22
(82.9%)
101-16
(86.3%)
100-15
(87%)
45-12
(78.9%)
44-10
(81.5%)
35-8
(81.4%)
13-7
(65%)
7-3
(70%)
3-0
(100%)
 585-119
(83.1%)
South Dakota25-3
(89.3%)
19-7
(73.1%)
24-3
(88.9%)
24-3
(88.9%)
18-2
(90%)
9-3
(75%)
3-1
(75%)
     122-22
(84.7%)
Tennessee110-29
(79.1%)
92-18
(83.6%)
119-14
(89.5%)
122-25
(83%)
127-22
(85.2%)
92-16
(85.2%)
43-13
(76.8%)
24-4
(85.7%)
10-2
(83.3%)
5-3
(62.5%)
  744-146
(83.6%)
Texas291-58
(83.4%)
434-109
(79.9%)
445-103
(81.2%)
451-84
(84.3%)
479-74
(86.6%)
446-89
(83.4%)
290-51
(85%)
134-39
(77.5%)
68-13
(84%)
37-12
(75.5%)
19-1
(95%)
5-5
(50%)
3099-638
(82.9%)
Utah42-9
(82.4%)
43-6
(87.8%)
38-8
(82.6%)
42-3
(93.3%)
28-6
(82.4%)
16-2
(88.9%)
7-2
(77.8%)
1-2
(33.3%)
    217-38
(85.1%)
Vermont14-2
(87.5%)
11-5
(68.8%)
14-2
(87.5%)
15-1
(93.8%)
6-0
(100%)
3-0
(100%)
      63-10
(86.3%)
Virginia80-18
(81.6%)
174-41
(80.9%)
150-22
(87.2%)
136-35
(79.5%)
144-25
(85.2%)
131-33
(79.9%)
79-19
(80.6%)
43-10
(81.1%)
20-5
(80%)
5-7
(41.7%)
4-2
(66.7%)
 966-217
(81.7%)
Washington92-27
(77.3%)
93-26
(78.2%)
97-21
(82.2%)
103-18
(85.1%)
125-17
(88%)
84-25
(77.1%)
32-10
(76.2%)
16-4
(80%)
8-2
(80%)
4-1
(80%)
  654-151
(81.2%)
West Virginia46-8
(85.2%)
39-10
(79.6%)
43-12
(78.2%)
42-9
(82.4%)
48-6
(88.9%)
40-7
(85.1%)
22-2
(91.7%)
7-5
(58.3%)
3-3
(50%)
2-1
(66.7%)
  292-63
(82.3%)
Wisconsin153-45
(77.3%)
163-29
(84.9%)
162-30
(84.4%)
84-28
(75%)
43-12
(78.2%)
21-7
(75%)
12-2
(85.7%)
4-3
(57.1%)
    642-156
(80.5%)
Wyoming18-6
(75%)
20-3
(87%)
20-4
(83.3%)
14-9
(60.9%)
14-2
(87.5%)
5-3
(62.5%)
4-0
(100%)
     95-27
(77.9%)
Prep Schools23-9
(71.9%)
35-4
(89.7%)
32-7
(82.1%)
31-9
(77.5%)
29-11
(72.5%)
36-5
(87.8%)
25-5
(83.3%)
4-3
(57.1%)
1-0
(100%)
   216-53
(80.3%)
 
NATIONAL4921-1066
(82.2%)
5371-1107
(82.9%)
5395-1079
(83.3%)
5368-1015
(84.1%)
4730-910
(83.9%)
3657-778
(82.5%)
2176-484
(81.8%)
988-303
(76.5%)
682-198
(77.5%)
222-96
(69.8%)
81-22
(78.6%)
14-13
(51.9%)
33605-7071
(82.6%)


Note: By comparison, blindly picking the team with the better record (and the home team in case of equal records), would have yielded the following percentage for the part of the season we pick:  68.1%
(In other words, anything up around 75-80% is pretty good, but it's important to understand that it's easy to pick 70% in regular-season high school football, due to the large number of mismatched games.)

out-of-state: 81.7% (in 454 games)