2014 PROJECTION ACCURACY BREAKDOWN      2013 data


State10/310/1010/1710/2410/3111/711/1411/2111/2812/512/1212/1912/26TOTALS
Alabama177-27
(86.8%)
168-30
(84.8%)
173-28
(86.1%)
170-31
(84.6%)
147-40
(78.6%)
98-17
(85.2%)
41-17
(70.7%)
22-7
(75.9%)
10-2
(83.3%)
7-0
(100%)
   1013-199
(83.6%)
Alaska12-2
(85.7%)
7-1
(87.5%)
4-0
(100%)
1-0
(100%)
         24-3
(88.9%)
Arizona85-11
(88.5%)
86-14
(86%)
89-9
(90.8%)
86-14
(86%)
84-16
(84%)
36-4
(90%)
17-3
(85%)
8-2
(80%)
4-1
(80%)
    495-74
(87%)
Arkansas84-20
(80.8%)
87-13
(87%)
89-17
(84%)
88-16
(84.6%)
88-14
(86.3%)
87-16
(84.5%)
50-8
(86.2%)
28-8
(77.8%)
17-1
(94.4%)
7-2
(77.8%)
3-0
(100%)
  628-115
(84.5%)
California342-61
(84.9%)
394-103
(79.3%)
421-77
(84.5%)
406-96
(80.9%)
430-75
(85.1%)
440-67
(86.8%)
251-55
(82%)
139-41
(77.2%)
70-21
(76.9%)
22-17
(56.4%)
7-1
(87.5%)
4-1
(80%)
 2926-615
(82.6%)
Colorado82-14
(85.4%)
82-17
(82.8%)
84-11
(88.4%)
83-12
(87.4%)
68-10
(87.2%)
27-5
(84.4%)
11-5
(68.8%)
5-3
(62.5%)
3-0
(100%)
    445-77
(85.2%)
Connecticut60-9
(87%)
55-13
(80.9%)
51-17
(75%)
59-8
(88.1%)
56-12
(82.4%)
60-7
(89.6%)
58-13
(81.7%)
12-3
(80%)
56-9
(86.2%)
13-3
(81.3%)
4-4
(50%)
  484-98
(83.2%)
Delaware20-3
(87%)
20-2
(90.9%)
12-8
(60%)
19-1
(95%)
16-5
(76.2%)
17-5
(77.3%)
1-4
(20%)
2-2
(50%)
2-0
(100%)
    109-30
(78.4%)
District of Columbia9-3
(75%)
11-0
(100%)
8-4
(66.7%)
9-4
(69.2%)
9-4
(69.2%)
8-2
(80%)
5-3
(62.5%)
2-1
(66.7%)
2-1
(66.7%)
1-0
(100%)
   64-22
(74.4%)
Florida178-39
(82%)
185-41
(81.9%)
186-37
(83.4%)
173-38
(82%)
189-30
(86.3%)
154-34
(81.9%)
79-15
(84%)
36-12
(75%)
19-5
(79.2%)
8-4
(66.7%)
4-0
(100%)
 1-2
(33.3%)
1212-257
(82.5%)
Georgia135-44
(75.4%)
166-25
(86.9%)
164-34
(82.8%)
180-26
(87.4%)
176-32
(84.6%)
135-27
(83.3%)
79-15
(84%)
48-15
(76.2%)
29-1
(96.7%)
9-5
(64.3%)
5-2
(71.4%)
  1126-226
(83.3%)
Hawaii20-0
(100%)
16-2
(88.9%)
8-2
(80%)
11-2
(84.6%)
4-1
(80%)
3-1
(75%)
3-1
(75%)
0-2
(0%)
     65-11
(85.5%)
Idaho30-9
(76.9%)
36-5
(87.8%)
34-6
(85%)
28-10
(73.7%)
22-1
(95.7%)
12-4
(75%)
5-2
(71.4%)
3-1
(75%)
1-0
(100%)
    171-38
(81.8%)
Illinois229-52
(81.5%)
231-52
(81.6%)
240-38
(86.3%)
230-43
(84.2%)
111-17
(86.7%)
49-15
(76.6%)
27-6
(81.8%)
16-2
(88.9%)
8-1
(88.9%)
    1141-226
(83.5%)
Indiana138-23
(85.7%)
129-30
(81.1%)
138-22
(86.3%)
126-16
(88.7%)
76-13
(85.4%)
36-9
(80%)
21-2
(91.3%)
7-4
(63.6%)
3-3
(50%)
    674-122
(84.7%)
Iowa112-26
(81.2%)
115-23
(83.3%)
118-20
(85.5%)
123-15
(89.1%)
69-11
(86.3%)
46-14
(76.7%)
9-1
(90%)
2-3
(40%)
     594-113
(84%)
Kansas91-24
(79.1%)
93-22
(80.9%)
99-16
(86.1%)
97-17
(85.1%)
84-30
(73.7%)
53-11
(82.8%)
18-6
(75%)
8-4
(66.7%)
4-2
(66.7%)
    547-132
(80.6%)
Kentucky62-24
(72.1%)
80-13
(86%)
84-13
(86.6%)
85-13
(86.7%)
72-18
(80%)
85-10
(89.5%)
38-10
(79.2%)
15-9
(62.5%)
9-3
(75%)
6-0
(100%)
   536-113
(82.6%)
Louisiana100-29
(77.5%)
111-20
(84.7%)
107-22
(82.9%)
109-16
(87.2%)
113-16
(87.6%)
112-15
(88.2%)
78-16
(83%)
48-8
(85.7%)
20-8
(71.4%)
12-2
(85.7%)
3-2
(60%)
  813-154
(84.1%)
Maine36-2
(94.7%)
29-9
(76.3%)
30-6
(83.3%)
32-5
(86.5%)
19-5
(79.2%)
14-2
(87.5%)
7-1
(87.5%)
2-2
(50%)
1-0
(100%)
    170-32
(84.2%)
Maryland88-18
(83%)
87-20
(81.3%)
92-16
(85.2%)
89-21
(80.9%)
98-11
(89.9%)
82-20
(80.4%)
22-10
(68.8%)
11-5
(68.8%)
7-3
(70%)
3-1
(75%)
   579-125
(82.2%)
Massachusetts114-23
(83.2%)
107-28
(79.3%)
105-28
(78.9%)
113-23
(83.1%)
108-28
(79.4%)
104-37
(73.8%)
101-41
(71.1%)
7-4
(63.6%)
101-32
(75.9%)
4-4
(50%)
   864-248
(77.7%)
Michigan223-61
(78.5%)
240-47
(83.6%)
217-46
(82.5%)
207-41
(83.5%)
105-23
(82%)
49-15
(76.6%)
31-1
(96.9%)
14-2
(87.5%)
4-4
(50%)
    1090-240
(82%)
Minnesota120-30
(80%)
121-27
(81.8%)
119-22
(84.4%)
161-31
(83.9%)
41-7
(85.4%)
16-8
(66.7%)
6-6
(50%)
4-2
(66.7%)
     588-133
(81.6%)
Mississippi106-17
(86.2%)
103-20
(83.7%)
86-21
(80.4%)
96-24
(80%)
86-19
(81.9%)
86-11
(88.7%)
46-9
(83.6%)
19-9
(67.9%)
8-4
(66.7%)
4-2
(66.7%)
   640-136
(82.5%)
Missouri137-23
(85.6%)
139-26
(84.2%)
130-34
(79.3%)
140-24
(85.4%)
74-15
(83.1%)
38-7
(84.4%)
14-8
(63.6%)
5-5
(50%)
6-1
(85.7%)
    683-143
(82.7%)
Montana29-5
(85.3%)
28-8
(77.8%)
31-5
(86.1%)
33-2
(94.3%)
17-2
(89.5%)
8-4
(66.7%)
5-1
(83.3%)
3-0
(100%)
     154-27
(85.1%)
Nebraska61-14
(81.3%)
67-9
(88.2%)
64-12
(84.2%)
65-10
(86.7%)
29-3
(90.6%)
11-5
(68.8%)
6-2
(75%)
 4-0
(100%)
    307-55
(84.8%)
Nevada28-7
(80%)
24-8
(75%)
33-3
(91.7%)
26-7
(78.8%)
25-5
(83.3%)
19-2
(90.5%)
10-2
(83.3%)
6-0
(100%)
2-0
(100%)
1-0
(100%)
   174-34
(83.7%)
New Hampshire23-6
(79.3%)
21-6
(77.8%)
20-8
(71.4%)
19-8
(70.4%)
19-8
(70.4%)
11-1
(91.7%)
5-1
(83.3%)
3-0
(100%)
2-1
(66.7%)
    123-39
(75.9%)
New Jersey115-32
(78.2%)
122-29
(80.8%)
123-17
(87.9%)
122-24
(83.6%)
112-32
(77.8%)
131-21
(86.2%)
132-34
(79.5%)
33-16
(67.3%)
48-18
(72.7%)
20-4
(83.3%)
   958-227
(80.8%)
New Mexico33-8
(80.5%)
33-8
(80.5%)
25-5
(83.3%)
34-5
(87.2%)
29-8
(78.4%)
33-6
(84.6%)
12-4
(75%)
13-3
(81.3%)
6-2
(75%)
3-1
(75%)
   221-50
(81.5%)
New York234-69
(77.2%)
246-52
(82.6%)
264-39
(87.1%)
250-57
(81.4%)
186-46
(80.2%)
79-25
(76%)
40-14
(74.1%)
21-7
(75%)
13-3
(81.3%)
1-0
(100%)
1-0
(100%)
  1335-312
(81.1%)
North Carolina127-14
(90.1%)
145-27
(84.3%)
172-30
(85.1%)
159-29
(84.6%)
153-20
(88.4%)
169-37
(82%)
116-17
(87.2%)
55-11
(83.3%)
20-12
(62.5%)
15-1
(93.8%)
5-3
(62.5%)
  1136-201
(85%)
North Dakota22-7
(75.9%)
25-3
(89.3%)
17-5
(77.3%)
20-2
(90.9%)
8-4
(66.7%)
3-3
(50%)
2-1
(66.7%)
      97-25
(79.5%)
Ohio296-60
(83.1%)
290-61
(82.6%)
296-59
(83.4%)
300-53
(85%)
290-63
(82.2%)
100-12
(89.3%)
48-8
(85.7%)
21-7
(75%)
12-2
(85.7%)
5-2
(71.4%)
   1658-327
(83.5%)
Oklahoma107-16
(87%)
97-20
(82.9%)
106-12
(89.8%)
95-21
(81.9%)
106-12
(89.8%)
107-16
(87%)
55-13
(80.9%)
32-4
(88.9%)
10-6
(62.5%)
4-5
(44.4%)
3-0
(100%)
1-0
(100%)
 723-125
(85.3%)
Oregon74-18
(80.4%)
70-16
(81.4%)
79-9
(89.8%)
76-12
(86.4%)
66-12
(84.6%)
40-8
(83.3%)
23-0
(100%)
8-4
(66.7%)
4-2
(66.7%)
1-0
(100%)
   441-81
(84.5%)
Pennsylvania232-55
(80.8%)
245-46
(84.2%)
239-51
(82.4%)
239-49
(83%)
200-40
(83.3%)
113-24
(82.5%)
57-16
(78.1%)
25-7
(78.1%)
36-3
(92.3%)
6-2
(75%)
3-1
(75%)
  1395-294
(82.6%)
Rhode Island14-6
(70%)
18-4
(81.8%)
16-3
(84.2%)
18-2
(90%)
14-0
(100%)
19-3
(86.4%)
9-7
(56.3%)
7-1
(87.5%)
12-7
(63.2%)
2-2
(50%)
   129-35
(78.7%)
South Carolina86-25
(77.5%)
91-23
(79.8%)
94-19
(83.2%)
89-25
(78.1%)
94-21
(81.7%)
71-12
(85.5%)
40-6
(87%)
15-8
(65.2%)
6-3
(66.7%)
2-2
(50%)
   588-144
(80.3%)
South Dakota21-3
(87.5%)
25-2
(92.6%)
23-4
(85.2%)
20-3
(87%)
20-4
(83.3%)
15-1
(93.8%)
3-1
(75%)
      127-18
(87.6%)
Tennessee126-29
(81.3%)
115-20
(85.2%)
121-16
(88.3%)
121-33
(78.6%)
133-30
(81.6%)
73-14
(83.9%)
42-14
(75%)
24-4
(85.7%)
10-2
(83.3%)
7-1
(87.5%)
   772-163
(82.6%)
Texas294-68
(81.2%)
463-89
(83.9%)
453-97
(82.4%)
459-90
(83.6%)
470-80
(85.5%)
469-70
(87%)
252-58
(81.3%)
122-51
(70.5%)
67-21
(76.1%)
28-15
(65.1%)
14-6
(70%)
8-2
(80%)
 3099-647
(82.7%)
Utah43-7
(86%)
39-11
(78%)
40-9
(81.6%)
42-5
(89.4%)
24-9
(72.7%)
15-3
(83.3%)
6-3
(66.7%)
3-0
(100%)
    0-1
(0%)
212-48
(81.5%)
Vermont16-0
(100%)
14-2
(87.5%)
14-2
(87.5%)
13-3
(81.3%)
5-1
(83.3%)
2-1
(66.7%)
       64-9
(87.7%)
Virginia128-29
(81.5%)
138-25
(84.7%)
144-28
(83.7%)
140-26
(84.3%)
134-32
(80.7%)
125-27
(82.2%)
80-18
(81.6%)
36-12
(75%)
21-3
(87.5%)
12-0
(100%)
2-4
(33.3%)
  960-204
(82.5%)
Washington87-25
(77.7%)
96-15
(86.5%)
90-20
(81.8%)
89-22
(80.2%)
122-24
(83.6%)
86-25
(77.5%)
32-10
(76.2%)
16-4
(80%)
8-2
(80%)
3-2
(60%)
  1-1
(50%)
630-150
(80.8%)
West Virginia50-10
(83.3%)
47-7
(87%)
50-5
(90.9%)
47-8
(85.5%)
44-9
(83%)
38-12
(76%)
19-5
(79.2%)
9-3
(75%)
6-0
(100%)
2-1
(66.7%)
   312-60
(83.9%)
Wisconsin171-32
(84.2%)
158-38
(80.6%)
167-27
(86.1%)
98-13
(88.3%)
44-12
(78.6%)
20-8
(71.4%)
11-3
(78.6%)
4-3
(57.1%)
     673-136
(83.2%)
Wyoming22-3
(88%)
21-3
(87.5%)
22-3
(88%)
20-5
(80%)
15-1
(93.8%)
8-0
(100%)
2-2
(50%)
      110-17
(86.6%)
Prep Schools27-14
(65.9%)
35-4
(89.7%)
34-6
(85%)
30-10
(75%)
35-5
(87.5%)
31-4
(88.6%)
7-1
(87.5%)
 1-0
(100%)
    200-44
(82%)
 
NATIONAL5200-1139
(82%)
5530-1129
(83%)
5594-1044
(84.3%)
5520-1064
(83.8%)
4705-930
(83.5%)
3635-704
(83.8%)
2030-499
(80.3%)
918-301
(75.3%)
670-186
(78.3%)
208-78
(72.7%)
54-23
(70.1%)
13-3
(81.3%)
1-2
(33.3%)
34078-7102
(82.8%)


Note: By comparison, blindly picking the team with the better record (and the home team in case of equal records), would have yielded the following percentage for the part of the season we pick:  68.1%
(In other words, anything up around 75-80% is pretty good, but it's important to understand that it's easy to pick 70% in regular-season high school football, due to the large number of mismatched games.)

out-of-state: 80.1% (in 460 games)