2012 PROJECTION ACCURACY BREAKDOWN      2011 data


State10/510/1210/1910/2611/211/911/1611/2311/3012/712/1412/21TOTALS
Alabama170-41
(80.6%)
177-33
(84.3%)
178-33
(84.4%)
175-34
(83.7%)
159-38
(80.7%)
82-20
(80.4%)
40-11
(78.4%)
17-7
(70.8%)
7-5
(58.3%)
5-1
(83.3%)
  1010-223
(81.9%)
Alaska7-1
(87.5%)
4-0
(100%)
1-0
(100%)
         12-1
(92.3%)
Arizona87-8
(91.6%)
66-10
(86.8%)
59-15
(79.7%)
87-8
(91.6%)
32-7
(82.1%)
18-2
(90%)
8-2
(80%)
1-4
(20%)
    358-56
(86.5%)
Arkansas83-18
(82.2%)
80-23
(77.7%)
85-17
(83.3%)
79-23
(77.5%)
88-15
(85.4%)
52-9
(85.2%)
26-10
(72.2%)
15-3
(83.3%)
7-2
(77.8%)
2-1
(66.7%)
  517-121
(81%)
California405-88
(82.2%)
423-77
(84.6%)
402-100
(80.1%)
427-73
(85.4%)
417-85
(83.1%)
234-51
(82.1%)
132-37
(78.1%)
67-20
(77%)
25-13
(65.8%)
7-3
(70%)
3-2
(60%)
 2542-549
(82.2%)
Colorado88-19
(82.2%)
86-21
(80.4%)
84-22
(79.2%)
93-13
(87.7%)
71-12
(85.5%)
23-9
(71.9%)
12-4
(75%)
5-3
(62.5%)
1-2
(33.3%)
   463-105
(81.5%)
Connecticut66-5
(93%)
56-13
(81.2%)
56-12
(82.4%)
56-16
(77.8%)
44-3
(93.6%)
51-6
(89.5%)
27-5
(84.4%)
59-8
(88.1%)
17-6
(73.9%)
4-0
(100%)
  436-74
(85.5%)
Delaware20-5
(80%)
19-4
(82.6%)
19-5
(79.2%)
19-4
(82.6%)
20-3
(87%)
17-4
(81%)
4-2
(66.7%)
3-1
(75%)
2-0
(100%)
   123-28
(81.5%)
District of Columbia11-2
(84.6%)
16-0
(100%)
11-5
(68.8%)
9-2
(81.8%)
11-2
(84.6%)
2-2
(50%)
1-0
(100%)
     61-13
(82.4%)
Florida178-32
(84.8%)
151-39
(79.5%)
181-30
(85.8%)
135-29
(82.3%)
206-38
(84.4%)
148-29
(83.6%)
80-17
(82.5%)
31-17
(64.6%)
19-5
(79.2%)
7-5
(58.3%)
2-2
(50%)
 1138-243
(82.4%)
Georgia149-28
(84.2%)
158-29
(84.5%)
186-25
(88.2%)
175-37
(82.5%)
188-24
(88.7%)
140-26
(84.3%)
77-15
(83.7%)
49-13
(79%)
20-11
(64.5%)
10-4
(71.4%)
5-2
(71.4%)
 1157-214
(84.4%)
Hawaii20-0
(100%)
14-3
(82.4%)
13-2
(86.7%)
7-1
(87.5%)
4-2
(66.7%)
2-2
(50%)
4-0
(100%)
1-1
(50%)
    65-11
(85.5%)
Idaho32-5
(86.5%)
28-12
(70%)
30-7
(81.1%)
32-2
(94.1%)
10-4
(71.4%)
8-0
(100%)
4-0
(100%)
     144-30
(82.8%)
Illinois242-44
(84.6%)
238-46
(83.8%)
249-36
(87.4%)
105-23
(82%)
44-20
(68.8%)
26-6
(81.3%)
14-4
(77.8%)
6-3
(66.7%)
    924-182
(83.5%)
Indiana131-29
(81.9%)
131-27
(82.9%)
125-32
(79.6%)
63-18
(77.8%)
36-4
(90%)
18-2
(90%)
9-1
(90%)
4-1
(80%)
    517-114
(81.9%)
Iowa108-17
(86.4%)
110-15
(88%)
98-27
(78.4%)
62-18
(77.5%)
43-17
(71.7%)
9-1
(90%)
4-1
(80%)
     434-96
(81.9%)
Kansas91-27
(77.1%)
95-19
(83.3%)
99-20
(83.2%)
95-20
(82.6%)
57-15
(79.2%)
19-1
(95%)
5-5
(50%)
3-2
(60%)
    464-109
(81%)
Kentucky81-10
(89%)
78-15
(83.9%)
82-15
(84.5%)
71-25
(74%)
88-7
(92.6%)
37-11
(77.1%)
21-3
(87.5%)
9-3
(75%)
6-0
(100%)
   473-89
(84.2%)
Louisiana110-32
(77.5%)
120-21
(85.1%)
122-19
(86.5%)
119-22
(84.4%)
121-17
(87.7%)
67-13
(83.8%)
32-8
(80%)
18-2
(90%)
8-2
(80%)
4-1
(80%)
  721-137
(84%)
Maine26-11
(70.3%)
29-9
(76.3%)
23-14
(62.2%)
20-5
(80%)
8-4
(66.7%)
5-1
(83.3%)
3-0
(100%)
     114-44
(72.2%)
Maryland88-20
(81.5%)
98-13
(88.3%)
85-13
(86.7%)
101-19
(84.2%)
83-22
(79%)
31-8
(79.5%)
16-3
(84.2%)
7-2
(77.8%)
4-0
(100%)
   513-100
(83.7%)
Massachusetts113-27
(80.7%)
115-27
(81%)
106-33
(76.3%)
109-30
(78.4%)
115-27
(81%)
113-26
(81.3%)
12-4
(75%)
106-26
(80.3%)
42-15
(73.7%)
   831-215
(79.4%)
Michigan239-46
(83.9%)
220-44
(83.3%)
209-48
(81.3%)
100-28
(78.1%)
51-13
(79.7%)
24-8
(75%)
13-3
(81.3%)
6-2
(75%)
    862-192
(81.8%)
Minnesota117-32
(78.5%)
123-25
(83.1%)
119-22
(84.4%)
169-33
(83.7%)
33-15
(68.8%)
15-8
(65.2%)
9-3
(75%)
5-1
(83.3%)
    590-139
(80.9%)
Mississippi121-27
(81.8%)
125-21
(85.6%)
123-24
(83.7%)
124-22
(84.9%)
94-20
(82.5%)
49-9
(84.5%)
21-7
(75%)
9-5
(64.3%)
2-4
(33.3%)
   668-139
(82.8%)
Missouri140-19
(88.1%)
128-31
(80.5%)
135-23
(85.4%)
143-17
(89.4%)
76-12
(86.4%)
45-19
(70.3%)
9-3
(75%)
6-0
(100%)
    682-124
(84.6%)
Montana31-6
(83.8%)
34-2
(94.4%)
31-5
(86.1%)
14-5
(73.7%)
9-3
(75%)
5-1
(83.3%)
3-0
(100%)
     127-22
(85.2%)
Nebraska64-11
(85.3%)
59-18
(76.6%)
68-9
(88.3%)
38-10
(79.2%)
18-6
(75%)
12-0
(100%)
3-1
(75%)
3-1
(75%)
    265-56
(82.6%)
Nevada30-7
(81.1%)
33-4
(89.2%)
29-6
(82.9%)
22-6
(78.6%)
18-4
(81.8%)
8-3
(72.7%)
5-1
(83.3%)
2-0
(100%)
1-0
(100%)
   148-31
(82.7%)
New Hampshire23-4
(85.2%)
23-5
(82.1%)
17-10
(63%)
22-6
(78.6%)
17-2
(89.5%)
5-4
(55.6%)
3-0
(100%)
1-0
(100%)
    111-31
(78.2%)
New Jersey113-29
(79.6%)
131-26
(83.4%)
117-30
(79.6%)
123-24
(83.7%)
16-2
(88.9%)
95-26
(78.5%)
128-33
(79.5%)
60-24
(71.4%)
33-15
(68.8%)
17-7
(70.8%)
  833-216
(79.4%)
New Mexico24-9
(72.7%)
30-6
(83.3%)
24-8
(75%)
29-6
(82.9%)
36-4
(90%)
28-10
(73.7%)
14-4
(77.8%)
13-4
(76.5%)
7-1
(87.5%)
4-0
(100%)
  209-52
(80.1%)
New York237-68
(77.7%)
239-45
(84.2%)
234-69
(77.2%)
185-55
(77.1%)
35-6
(85.4%)
51-18
(73.9%)
35-10
(77.8%)
20-4
(83.3%)
4-3
(57.1%)
0-1
(0%)
  1040-279
(78.8%)
North Carolina150-34
(81.5%)
159-20
(88.8%)
157-21
(88.2%)
159-20
(88.8%)
113-24
(82.5%)
59-9
(86.8%)
26-7
(78.8%)
14-2
(87.5%)
5-3
(62.5%)
   842-140
(85.7%)
North Dakota25-6
(80.6%)
28-3
(90.3%)
12-10
(54.5%)
10-2
(83.3%)
4-2
(66.7%)
3-0
(100%)
      82-23
(78.1%)
Ohio264-77
(77.4%)
288-60
(82.8%)
282-62
(82%)
288-58
(83.2%)
74-22
(77.1%)
39-9
(81.3%)
21-3
(87.5%)
7-5
(58.3%)
6-0
(100%)
   1269-296
(81.1%)
Oklahoma102-21
(82.9%)
104-19
(84.6%)
104-16
(86.7%)
103-20
(83.7%)
102-17
(85.7%)
66-6
(91.7%)
27-9
(75%)
14-4
(77.8%)
3-6
(33.3%)
0-3
(0%)
  625-121
(83.8%)
Oregon76-17
(81.7%)
79-11
(87.8%)
73-16
(82%)
81-12
(87.1%)
45-11
(80.4%)
44-4
(91.7%)
18-6
(75%)
11-1
(91.7%)
3-3
(50%)
1-0
(100%)
  431-81
(84.2%)
Pennsylvania223-45
(83.2%)
233-33
(87.6%)
224-41
(84.5%)
228-35
(86.7%)
158-40
(79.8%)
104-39
(72.7%)
46-19
(70.8%)
42-13
(76.4%)
13-3
(81.3%)
7-1
(87.5%)
3-1
(75%)
 1281-270
(82.6%)
Rhode Island16-6
(72.7%)
18-2
(90%)
14-6
(70%)
14-5
(73.7%)
19-1
(95%)
12-4
(75%)
0-1
(0%)
18-3
(85.7%)
11-1
(91.7%)
   122-29
(80.8%)
South Carolina89-20
(81.7%)
90-20
(81.8%)
90-18
(83.3%)
100-10
(90.9%)
66-20
(76.7%)
41-12
(77.4%)
18-8
(69.2%)
9-3
(75%)
3-2
(60%)
   506-113
(81.7%)
South Dakota22-7
(75.9%)
28-2
(93.3%)
18-6
(75%)
17-2
(89.5%)
17-1
(94.4%)
3-0
(100%)
      105-18
(85.4%)
Tennessee111-29
(79.3%)
125-23
(84.5%)
115-24
(82.7%)
125-26
(82.8%)
68-19
(78.2%)
45-11
(80.4%)
19-9
(67.9%)
9-3
(75%)
7-1
(87.5%)
   624-145
(81.1%)
Texas380-65
(85.4%)
449-92
(83%)
447-86
(83.9%)
462-82
(84.9%)
458-76
(85.8%)
425-104
(80.3%)
213-51
(80.7%)
126-38
(76.8%)
64-18
(78%)
33-8
(80.5%)
14-5
(73.7%)
7-2
(77.8%)
3078-627
(83.1%)
Utah41-8
(83.7%)
41-8
(83.7%)
31-8
(79.5%)
27-6
(81.8%)
15-1
(93.8%)
3-5
(37.5%)
3-0
(100%)
     161-36
(81.7%)
Vermont13-3
(81.3%)
14-1
(93.3%)
13-2
(86.7%)
16-0
(100%)
6-0
(100%)
3-0
(100%)
      65-6
(91.5%)
Virginia146-27
(84.4%)
147-28
(84%)
139-32
(81.3%)
139-29
(82.7%)
147-31
(82.6%)
85-13
(86.7%)
40-12
(76.9%)
17-7
(70.8%)
8-4
(66.7%)
5-1
(83.3%)
  873-184
(82.6%)
Washington121-27
(81.8%)
117-30
(79.6%)
122-25
(83%)
121-25
(82.9%)
67-25
(72.8%)
32-8
(80%)
16-4
(80%)
10-0
(100%)
3-2
(60%)
   609-146
(80.7%)
West Virginia49-5
(90.7%)
46-11
(80.7%)
44-9
(83%)
50-9
(84.7%)
35-9
(79.5%)
22-2
(91.7%)
10-2
(83.3%)
4-2
(66.7%)
2-1
(66.7%)
   262-50
(84%)
Wisconsin158-27
(85.4%)
165-32
(83.8%)
88-24
(78.6%)
42-14
(75%)
24-4
(85.7%)
11-3
(78.6%)
3-4
(42.9%)
     491-108
(82%)
Wyoming21-4
(84%)
25-1
(96.2%)
23-2
(92%)
14-2
(87.5%)
7-1
(87.5%)
3-1
(75%)
      93-11
(89.4%)
Prep Schools31-7
(81.6%)
33-9
(78.6%)
35-8
(81.4%)
29-10
(74.4%)
19-7
(73.1%)
30-5
(85.7%)
5-1
(83.3%)
0-1
(0%)
    182-48
(79.1%)
 
NATIONAL5439-1154
(82.5%)
5580-1078
(83.8%)
5397-1142
(82.5%)
5014-993
(83.5%)
3683-756
(83%)
2469-569
(81.3%)
1237-333
(78.8%)
804-237
(77.2%)
333-128
(72.2%)
106-36
(74.6%)
27-12
(69.2%)
7-2
(77.8%)
30096-6440
(82.4%)


Note: By comparison, blindly picking the team with the better record (and the home team in case of equal records), would have yielded the following percentage for the part of the season we pick:  67.3%
(In other words, anything up around 75-80% is pretty good, but it's important to understand that it's easy to pick 70% in regular-season high school football, due to the large number of mismatched games.)

out-of-state: 78.7% (in 417 games)