2011 PROJECTION ACCURACY BREAKDOWN      2010 data


State10/1410/2110/2811/411/1111/1811/2512/212/912/16TOTALS
Alabama187-23
(89%)		177-31
(85.1%)		171-32
(84.2%)		88-15
(85.4%)		44-8
(84.6%)		23-4
(85.2%)		8-4
(66.7%)		3-3
(50%)		  878-155
(85%)
Alaska4-0
(100%)		1-0
(100%)		        17-4
(81%)
Arizona77-18
(81.1%)		74-21
(77.9%)		81-14
(85.3%)		32-8
(80%)		16-4
(80%)		9-1
(90%)		3-2
(60%)		   371-84
(81.5%)
Arkansas76-25
(75.2%)		85-14
(85.9%)		92-7
(92.9%)		87-13
(87%)		49-10
(83.1%)		29-7
(80.6%)		13-5
(72.2%)		3-6
(33.3%)		2-1
(66.7%)		 523-101
(83.8%)
California410-81
(83.5%)		413-80
(83.8%)		416-80
(83.9%)		420-78
(84.3%)		392-60
(86.7%)		205-34
(85.8%)		119-25
(82.6%)		50-19
(72.5%)		21-7
(75%)		5-0
(100%)		2829-545
(83.8%)
Colorado82-18
(82%)		77-19
(80.2%)		87-12
(87.9%)		79-13
(85.9%)		28-8
(77.8%)		12-6
(66.7%)		7-2
(77.8%)		3-1
(75%)		  475-97
(83%)
Connecticut58-12
(82.9%)		59-13
(81.9%)		59-10
(85.5%)		40-6
(87%)		70-11
(86.4%)		16-2
(88.9%)		54-14
(79.4%)		17-7
(70.8%)		4-0
(100%)		 477-88
(84.4%)
Delaware19-4
(82.6%)		19-4
(82.6%)		21-1
(95.5%)		21-3
(87.5%)		19-3
(86.4%)		2-2
(50%)		4-0
(100%)		1-1
(50%)		  136-26
(84%)
District of Columbia11-0
(100%)		13-1
(92.9%)		9-3
(75%)		8-2
(80%)		4-0
(100%)		1-0
(100%)		1-0
(100%)		   64-6
(91.4%)
Florida162-34
(82.7%)		192-38
(83.5%)		172-45
(79.3%)		203-32
(86.4%)		154-42
(78.6%)		72-24
(75%)		36-12
(75%)		19-5
(79.2%)		9-3
(75%)		3-1
(75%)		1201-278
(81.2%)
Georgia169-35
(82.8%)		172-32
(84.3%)		178-29
(86%)		112-20
(84.8%)		78-15
(83.9%)		36-10
(78.3%)		15-8
(65.2%)		6-4
(60%)		4-1
(80%)		 941-189
(83.3%)
Hawaii13-5
(72.2%)		15-1
(93.8%)		8-3
(72.7%)		6-4
(60%)		3-2
(60%)		3-1
(75%)		1-1
(50%)		   73-23
(76%)
Idaho35-7
(83.3%)		32-9
(78%)		26-6
(81.3%)		13-3
(81.3%)		6-2
(75%)		3-1
(75%)		    146-39
(78.9%)
Illinois232-52
(81.7%)		231-55
(80.8%)		105-24
(81.4%)		45-21
(68.2%)		26-9
(74.3%)		14-6
(70%)		7-2
(77.8%)		   917-238
(79.4%)
Indiana143-17
(89.4%)		136-20
(87.2%)		73-8
(90.1%)		27-14
(65.9%)		19-2
(90.5%)		10-1
(90.9%)		5-1
(83.3%)		   544-94
(85.3%)
Iowa126-15
(89.4%)		123-19
(86.6%)		69-10
(87.3%)		37-11
(77.1%)		11-7
(61.1%)		5-4
(55.6%)		    492-88
(84.8%)
Kansas104-12
(89.7%)		94-21
(81.7%)		93-21
(81.6%)		59-13
(81.9%)		15-5
(75%)		6-4
(60%)		2-3
(40%)		   468-99
(82.5%)
Kentucky83-16
(83.8%)		90-11
(89.1%)		79-24
(76.7%)		81-15
(84.4%)		40-8
(83.3%)		18-6
(75%)		12-0
(100%)		5-1
(83.3%)		  485-90
(84.3%)
Louisiana121-14
(89.6%)		116-24
(82.9%)		119-22
(84.4%)		117-21
(84.8%)		64-14
(82.1%)		32-8
(80%)		17-3
(85%)		6-4
(60%)		4-1
(80%)		 723-130
(84.8%)
Maine31-6
(83.8%)		31-8
(79.5%)		20-5
(80%)		10-2
(83.3%)		6-0
(100%)		2-1
(66.7%)		    140-29
(82.8%)
Maryland95-19
(83.3%)		95-17
(84.8%)		84-14
(85.7%)		95-25
(79.2%)		31-7
(81.6%)		12-7
(63.2%)		7-2
(77.8%)		4-0
(100%)		  538-121
(81.6%)
Massachusetts105-34
(75.5%)		114-26
(81.4%)		113-21
(84.3%)		101-27
(78.9%)		109-26
(80.7%)		26-3
(89.7%)		107-27
(79.9%)		43-14
(75.4%)		  872-220
(79.9%)
Michigan216-42
(83.7%)		232-46
(83.5%)		109-19
(85.2%)		48-16
(75%)		24-8
(75%)		8-8
(50%)		5-3
(62.5%)		   895-195
(82.1%)
Minnesota114-32
(78.1%)		103-37
(73.6%)		182-32
(85%)		28-12
(70%)		16-4
(80%)		8-2
(80%)		2-3
(40%)		   577-151
(79.3%)
Mississippi119-23
(83.8%)		117-25
(82.4%)		124-21
(85.5%)		87-27
(76.3%)		45-13
(77.6%)		19-9
(67.9%)		10-4
(71.4%)		6-0
(100%)		  645-150
(81.1%)
Missouri141-21
(87%)		134-25
(84.3%)		135-24
(84.9%)		70-8
(89.7%)		44-18
(71%)		7-5
(58.3%)		4-2
(66.7%)		   682-136
(83.4%)
Montana29-7
(80.6%)		33-3
(91.7%)		18-2
(90%)		10-2
(83.3%)		6-0
(100%)		3-0
(100%)		    128-21
(85.9%)
Nebraska70-9
(88.6%)		68-11
(86.1%)		42-6
(87.5%)		19-5
(79.2%)		9-3
(75%)		4-0
(100%)		1-3
(25%)		   283-46
(86%)
Nevada31-3
(91.2%)		29-5
(85.3%)		27-7
(79.4%)		17-4
(81%)		10-2
(83.3%)		4-0
(100%)		4-0
(100%)		1-0
(100%)		  170-28
(85.9%)
New Hampshire22-7
(75.9%)		27-1
(96.4%)		21-6
(77.8%)		11-6
(64.7%)		8-1
(88.9%)		2-1
(66.7%)		0-1
(0%)		   128-27
(82.6%)
New Jersey127-27
(82.5%)		131-23
(85.1%)		108-28
(79.4%)		147-31
(82.6%)		55-15
(78.6%)		29-12
(70.7%)		76-18
(80.9%)		13-7
(65%)		  885-206
(81.1%)
New Mexico35-6
(85.4%)		39-5
(88.6%)		40-5
(88.9%)		25-9
(73.5%)		16-2
(88.9%)		14-1
(93.3%)		6-1
(85.7%)		1-2
(33.3%)		  211-47
(81.8%)
New York244-61
(80%)		255-50
(83.6%)		190-53
(78.2%)		106-17
(86.2%)		41-18
(69.5%)		20-8
(71.4%)		12-5
(70.6%)		 1-0
(100%)		 1258-325
(79.5%)
North Carolina156-35
(81.7%)		158-38
(80.6%)		160-32
(83.3%)		111-25
(81.6%)		58-12
(82.9%)		26-7
(78.8%)		9-7
(56.3%)		6-2
(75%)		  863-196
(81.5%)
North Dakota26-5
(83.9%)		18-5
(78.3%)		11-1
(91.7%)		3-3
(50%)		3-0
(100%)		     84-23
(78.5%)
Ohio279-63
(81.6%)		278-62
(81.8%)		286-52
(84.6%)		81-15
(84.4%)		33-15
(68.8%)		17-7
(70.8%)		6-6
(50%)		3-3
(50%)		  1287-277
(82.3%)
Oklahoma105-26
(80.2%)		111-19
(85.4%)		112-16
(87.5%)		111-19
(85.4%)		58-14
(80.6%)		33-3
(91.7%)		15-3
(83.3%)		6-3
(66.7%)		2-1
(66.7%)		 657-130
(83.5%)
Oregon78-16
(83%)		78-14
(84.8%)		69-18
(79.3%)		69-5
(93.2%)		40-8
(83.3%)		20-4
(83.3%)		9-3
(75%)		2-4
(33.3%)		1-0
(100%)		 448-87
(83.7%)
Pennsylvania206-44
(82.4%)		211-50
(80.8%)		207-36
(85.2%)		181-32
(85%)		113-34
(76.9%)		47-16
(74.6%)		51-6
(89.5%)		13-3
(81.3%)		5-3
(62.5%)		3-1
(75%)		1301-283
(82.1%)
Rhode Island14-3
(82.4%)		17-6
(73.9%)		13-8
(61.9%)		15-4
(78.9%)		12-6
(66.7%)		 19-2
(90.5%)		5-7
(41.7%)		  119-42
(73.9%)
South Carolina99-15
(86.8%)		97-17
(85.1%)		99-15
(86.8%)		73-11
(86.9%)		45-8
(84.9%)		19-8
(70.4%)		10-2
(83.3%)		3-2
(60%)		  536-101
(84.1%)
South Dakota25-6
(80.6%)		19-8
(70.4%)		16-4
(80%)		15-3
(83.3%)		3-0
(100%)		     102-27
(79.1%)
Tennessee122-26
(82.4%)		115-22
(83.9%)		128-24
(84.2%)		71-17
(80.7%)		42-14
(75%)		20-8
(71.4%)		10-2
(83.3%)		7-1
(87.5%)		  631-138
(82.1%)
Texas434-97
(81.7%)		453-81
(84.8%)		427-107
(80%)		444-82
(84.4%)		215-56
(79.3%)		135-33
(80.4%)		59-25
(70.2%)		28-14
(66.7%)		14-5
(73.7%)		7-2
(77.8%)		2678-595
(81.8%)
Utah36-10
(78.3%)		25-8
(75.8%)		29-4
(87.9%)		11-5
(68.8%)		7-1
(87.5%)		3-0
(100%)		    154-33
(82.4%)
Vermont15-2
(88.2%)		13-4
(76.5%)		14-2
(87.5%)		3-4
(42.9%)		3-0
(100%)		     70-17
(80.5%)
Virginia154-22
(87.5%)		148-24
(86%)		137-31
(81.5%)		141-34
(80.6%)		77-19
(80.2%)		39-11
(78%)		18-7
(72%)		8-4
(66.7%)		2-4
(33.3%)		 882-200
(81.5%)
Washington134-15
(89.9%)		125-23
(84.5%)		125-16
(88.7%)		95-20
(82.6%)		32-9
(78%)		15-5
(75%)		8-2
(80%)		2-3
(40%)		  661-125
(84.1%)
West Virginia50-9
(84.7%)		48-8
(85.7%)		47-11
(81%)		38-10
(79.2%)		17-5
(77.3%)		12-0
(100%)		6-0
(100%)		2-1
(66.7%)		  266-53
(83.4%)
Wisconsin178-25
(87.7%)		92-20
(82.1%)		40-16
(71.4%)		20-8
(71.4%)		10-4
(71.4%)		7-0
(100%)		    520-99
(84%)
Wyoming22-4
(84.6%)		24-1
(96%)		12-2
(85.7%)		6-2
(75%)		3-0
(100%)		     84-17
(83.2%)
Prep Schools37-7
(84.1%)		32-12
(72.7%)		27-2
(93.1%)		30-9
(76.9%)		29-6
(82.9%)		3-2
(60%)		0-1
(0%)		   206-48
(81.1%)
 
NATIONAL5610-1106
(83.5%)		5558-1108
(83.4%)		5000-988
(83.5%)		3751-788
(82.6%)		2254-538
(80.7%)		1049-282
(78.8%)		753-215
(77.8%)		266-121
(68.7%)		69-26
(72.6%)		18-4
(81.8%)		30515-6528
(82.4%)


Note: By comparison, blindly picking the team with the better record (and the home team in case of equal records), would have yielded the following percentage for the part of the season we pick:  67.2%
(In other words, anything up around 75-80% is pretty good, but it's important to understand that it's easy to pick 70% in regular-season high school football, due to the large number of mismatched games.)

out-of-state: 84.7% (in 450 games)