2010 PROJECTION ACCURACY BREAKDOWN      2009 data


State10/1510/2210/2911/511/1211/1911/2612/312/1012/17TOTALS
Alabama184-29
(86.4%)
180-31
(85.3%)
173-33
(84%)
86-22
(79.6%)
41-13
(75.9%)
22-5
(81.5%)
11-1
(91.7%)
4-2
(66.7%)
  1054-200
(84.1%)
Alaska2-0
(100%)
         13-1
(92.9%)
Arizona73-18
(80.2%)
75-17
(81.5%)
71-17
(80.7%)
64-11
(85.3%)
32-9
(78%)
17-3
(85%)
4-2
(66.7%)
4-2
(66.7%)
 2-0
(100%)
494-112
(81.5%)
Arkansas91-13
(87.5%)
88-15
(85.4%)
85-17
(83.3%)
89-14
(86.4%)
47-10
(82.5%)
28-8
(77.8%)
15-3
(83.3%)
8-1
(88.9%)
2-1
(66.7%)
 618-121
(83.6%)
California400-103
(79.5%)
413-88
(82.4%)
408-96
(81%)
424-82
(83.8%)
384-76
(83.5%)
202-40
(83.5%)
116-31
(78.9%)
48-21
(69.6%)
21-7
(75%)
3-2
(60%)
3131-730
(81.1%)
Colorado83-22
(79%)
85-19
(81.7%)
91-10
(90.1%)
67-23
(74.4%)
29-7
(80.6%)
16-2
(88.9%)
7-2
(77.8%)
3-1
(75%)
  547-118
(82.3%)
Connecticut58-10
(85.3%)
54-17
(76.1%)
58-9
(86.6%)
58-12
(82.9%)
55-11
(83.3%)
13-5
(72.2%)
45-19
(70.3%)
22-2
(91.7%)
3-1
(75%)
 482-106
(82%)
Delaware20-4
(83.3%)
17-6
(73.9%)
18-6
(75%)
19-4
(82.6%)
16-6
(72.7%)
2-2
(50%)
2-2
(50%)
2-0
(100%)
  134-39
(77.5%)
District of Columbia9-2
(81.8%)
10-1
(90.9%)
10-1
(90.9%)
9-1
(90%)
2-1
(66.7%)
1-0
(100%)
0-1
(0%)
   59-10
(85.5%)
Florida152-39
(79.6%)
180-34
(84.1%)
166-43
(79.4%)
186-40
(82.3%)
160-30
(84.2%)
80-16
(83.3%)
42-6
(87.5%)
17-7
(70.8%)
8-4
(66.7%)
2-2
(50%)
1337-293
(82%)
Georgia173-34
(83.6%)
161-46
(77.8%)
178-30
(85.6%)
98-36
(73.1%)
80-13
(86%)
37-9
(80.4%)
17-6
(73.9%)
5-5
(50%)
3-2
(60%)
 1063-255
(80.7%)
Hawaii14-2
(87.5%)
10-4
(71.4%)
12-0
(100%)
3-0
(100%)
3-1
(75%)
3-1
(75%)
2-0
(100%)
   77-18
(81.1%)
Idaho36-7
(83.7%)
35-8
(81.4%)
29-5
(85.3%)
14-2
(87.5%)
7-1
(87.5%)
3-1
(75%)
    182-40
(82%)
Illinois238-36
(86.9%)
221-48
(82.2%)
106-21
(83.5%)
55-9
(85.9%)
26-7
(78.8%)
14-6
(70%)
7-2
(77.8%)
   1133-207
(84.6%)
Indiana131-27
(82.9%)
133-22
(85.8%)
70-11
(86.4%)
28-13
(68.3%)
19-2
(90.5%)
9-2
(81.8%)
4-1
(80%)
   659-129
(83.6%)
Iowa121-21
(85.2%)
124-20
(86.1%)
65-15
(81.3%)
38-10
(79.2%)
13-5
(72.2%)
7-2
(77.8%)
    612-112
(84.5%)
Kansas100-16
(86.2%)
97-19
(83.6%)
105-13
(89%)
61-11
(84.7%)
14-6
(70%)
7-3
(70%)
4-1
(80%)
   588-103
(85.1%)
Kentucky84-15
(84.8%)
83-17
(83%)
88-12
(88%)
78-15
(83.9%)
43-5
(89.6%)
22-2
(91.7%)
9-3
(75%)
5-1
(83.3%)
  567-100
(85%)
Louisiana121-12
(91%)
117-17
(87.3%)
110-23
(82.7%)
114-19
(85.7%)
68-11
(86.1%)
29-11
(72.5%)
14-6
(70%)
9-1
(90%)
2-3
(40%)
 784-150
(83.9%)
Maine28-8
(77.8%)
29-7
(80.6%)
20-5
(80%)
10-2
(83.3%)
6-0
(100%)
2-1
(66.7%)
    151-37
(80.3%)
Maryland91-15
(85.8%)
92-15
(86%)
93-17
(84.5%)
88-17
(83.8%)
25-11
(69.4%)
13-4
(76.5%)
4-5
(44.4%)
4-0
(100%)
  592-122
(82.9%)
Massachusetts120-18
(87%)
118-21
(84.9%)
113-26
(81.3%)
122-19
(86.5%)
111-25
(81.6%)
12-0
(100%)
100-29
(77.5%)
34-9
(79.1%)
  957-199
(82.8%)
Michigan223-41
(84.5%)
222-52
(81%)
94-34
(73.4%)
40-23
(63.5%)
22-10
(68.8%)
11-5
(68.8%)
4-4
(50%)
   1085-274
(79.8%)
Minnesota126-24
(84%)
123-20
(86%)
184-32
(85.2%)
31-9
(77.5%)
15-3
(83.3%)
10-2
(83.3%)
4-1
(80%)
   727-152
(82.7%)
Mississippi128-22
(85.3%)
126-22
(85.1%)
131-18
(87.9%)
103-11
(90.4%)
44-12
(78.6%)
24-4
(85.7%)
12-2
(85.7%)
4-2
(66.7%)
  820-149
(84.6%)
Missouri140-21
(87%)
135-22
(86%)
136-23
(85.5%)
63-14
(81.8%)
53-11
(82.8%)
8-4
(66.7%)
4-2
(66.7%)
   795-150
(84.1%)
Montana31-8
(79.5%)
27-10
(73%)
14-5
(73.7%)
11-1
(91.7%)
4-2
(66.7%)
1-2
(33.3%)
    153-37
(80.5%)
Nebraska64-16
(80%)
67-13
(83.8%)
38-10
(79.2%)
19-5
(79.2%)
9-3
(75%)
4-0
(100%)
2-2
(50%)
   343-67
(83.7%)
Nevada32-3
(91.4%)
27-6
(81.8%)
26-8
(76.5%)
20-4
(83.3%)
8-4
(66.7%)
6-0
(100%)
0-2
(0%)
1-0
(100%)
  176-40
(81.5%)
New Hampshire21-8
(72.4%)
23-5
(82.1%)
21-7
(75%)
17-2
(89.5%)
6-3
(66.7%)
3-0
(100%)
5-0
(100%)
   139-39
(78.1%)
New Jersey121-33
(78.6%)
132-19
(87.4%)
127-30
(80.9%)
129-30
(81.1%)
123-38
(76.4%)
34-8
(81%)
71-17
(80.7%)
15-4
(78.9%)
  1005-249
(80.1%)
New Mexico39-5
(88.6%)
34-12
(73.9%)
45-3
(93.8%)
23-9
(71.9%)
16-2
(88.9%)
11-4
(73.3%)
4-3
(57.1%)
1-2
(33.3%)
  239-60
(79.9%)
New York246-64
(79.4%)
245-61
(80.1%)
216-44
(83.1%)
102-24
(81%)
46-15
(75.4%)
20-8
(71.4%)
14-2
(87.5%)
 1-0
(100%)
 1382-356
(79.5%)
North Carolina160-24
(87%)
165-21
(88.7%)
144-39
(78.7%)
143-36
(79.9%)
107-23
(82.3%)
47-18
(72.3%)
23-8
(74.2%)
11-5
(68.8%)
6-2
(75%)
 1094-226
(82.9%)
North Dakota26-4
(86.7%)
17-4
(81%)
9-3
(75%)
3-3
(50%)
2-1
(66.7%)
     109-24
(82%)
Ohio300-63
(82.6%)
311-54
(85.2%)
305-55
(84.7%)
74-22
(77.1%)
36-12
(75%)
17-7
(70.8%)
9-3
(75%)
4-2
(66.7%)
  1678-320
(84%)
Oklahoma107-24
(81.7%)
107-24
(81.7%)
112-18
(86.2%)
115-15
(88.5%)
57-15
(79.2%)
27-9
(75%)
14-4
(77.8%)
6-3
(66.7%)
2-1
(66.7%)
 770-150
(83.7%)
Oregon84-8
(91.3%)
80-12
(87%)
67-9
(88.2%)
60-13
(82.2%)
38-10
(79.2%)
21-3
(87.5%)
9-3
(75%)
4-2
(66.7%)
1-0
(100%)
 503-107
(82.5%)
Pennsylvania254-46
(84.7%)
255-43
(85.6%)
246-48
(83.7%)
199-39
(83.6%)
108-31
(77.7%)
43-20
(68.3%)
40-17
(70.2%)
14-2
(87.5%)
8-0
(100%)
2-2
(50%)
1654-349
(82.6%)
Rhode Island10-8
(55.6%)
14-6
(70%)
17-4
(81%)
15-5
(75%)
13-4
(76.5%)
0-1
(0%)
15-6
(71.4%)
11-1
(91.7%)
  128-43
(74.9%)
South Carolina97-17
(85.1%)
97-17
(85.1%)
91-22
(80.5%)
72-12
(85.7%)
40-6
(87%)
17-6
(73.9%)
9-1
(90%)
1-3
(25%)
  609-120
(83.5%)
South Dakota28-4
(87.5%)
27-3
(90%)
21-2
(91.3%)
14-4
(77.8%)
3-0
(100%)
     146-21
(87.4%)
Tennessee129-21
(86%)
121-29
(80.7%)
137-23
(85.6%)
70-18
(79.5%)
47-9
(83.9%)
23-5
(82.1%)
8-4
(66.7%)
7-1
(87.5%)
  790-165
(82.7%)
Texas433-96
(81.9%)
436-100
(81.3%)
458-81
(85%)
430-93
(82.2%)
220-51
(81.2%)
134-34
(79.8%)
63-21
(75%)
32-10
(76.2%)
16-3
(84.2%)
4-5
(44.4%)
2975-659
(81.9%)
Utah36-7
(83.7%)
35-6
(85.4%)
26-6
(81.3%)
14-2
(87.5%)
7-1
(87.5%)
1-2
(33.3%)
    194-41
(82.6%)
Vermont9-8
(52.9%)
14-3
(82.4%)
17-0
(100%)
6-0
(100%)
3-0
(100%)
     72-21
(77.4%)
Virginia149-28
(84.2%)
145-30
(82.9%)
139-33
(80.8%)
143-27
(84.1%)
86-12
(87.8%)
44-7
(86.3%)
20-4
(83.3%)
9-3
(75%)
3-3
(50%)
 1012-213
(82.6%)
Washington120-30
(80%)
124-25
(83.2%)
124-24
(83.8%)
78-25
(75.7%)
33-9
(78.6%)
13-7
(65%)
5-2
(71.4%)
5-3
(62.5%)
  745-174
(81.1%)
West Virginia51-10
(83.6%)
49-9
(84.5%)
49-12
(80.3%)
42-6
(87.5%)
20-4
(83.3%)
8-4
(66.7%)
5-1
(83.3%)
2-0
(100%)
1-0
(100%)
 324-68
(82.7%)
Wisconsin181-32
(85%)
176-29
(85.9%)
132-27
(83%)
22-6
(78.6%)
11-3
(78.6%)
6-1
(85.7%)
    882-165
(84.2%)
Wyoming22-4
(84.6%)
22-3
(88%)
13-3
(81.3%)
8-0
(100%)
2-2
(50%)
     112-19
(85.5%)
Prep Schools37-6
(86%)
32-13
(71.1%)
35-8
(81.4%)
37-7
(84.1%)
24-8
(75%)
4-1
(80%)
    220-58
(79.1%)
 
NATIONAL5690-1124
(83.5%)
5675-1135
(83.3%)
5220-1031
(83.5%)
3797-824
(82.2%)
2380-553
(81.1%)
1075-285
(79%)
742-227
(76.6%)
292-95
(75.5%)
77-27
(74%)
13-11
(54.2%)
35901-7658
(82.4%)


Note: By comparison, blindly picking the team with the better record (and the home team in case of equal records), would have yielded the following percentage for the part of the season we pick:  68.4%
(In other words, anything up around 75-80% is pretty good, but it's important to understand that it's easy to pick 70% in regular-season high school football, due to the large number of mismatched games.)

out-of-state: 79.3% (in 521 games)