2010 PROJECTION ACCURACY BREAKDOWN      2009 data


State10/1510/2210/2911/511/1211/1911/2612/312/1012/17TOTALS
Alabama184-29
(86.4%)		180-31
(85.3%)		173-33
(84%)		86-22
(79.6%)		41-13
(75.9%)		22-5
(81.5%)		11-1
(91.7%)		4-2
(66.7%)		  1054-200
(84.1%)
Alaska2-0
(100%)		         13-1
(92.9%)
Arizona73-18
(80.2%)		75-17
(81.5%)		71-17
(80.7%)		64-11
(85.3%)		32-9
(78%)		17-3
(85%)		4-2
(66.7%)		4-2
(66.7%)		 2-0
(100%)		494-112
(81.5%)
Arkansas91-13
(87.5%)		88-15
(85.4%)		85-17
(83.3%)		89-14
(86.4%)		47-10
(82.5%)		28-8
(77.8%)		15-3
(83.3%)		8-1
(88.9%)		2-1
(66.7%)		 618-121
(83.6%)
California400-103
(79.5%)		413-88
(82.4%)		408-96
(81%)		424-82
(83.8%)		384-76
(83.5%)		202-40
(83.5%)		116-31
(78.9%)		48-21
(69.6%)		21-7
(75%)		3-2
(60%)		3131-730
(81.1%)
Colorado83-22
(79%)		85-19
(81.7%)		91-10
(90.1%)		67-23
(74.4%)		29-7
(80.6%)		16-2
(88.9%)		7-2
(77.8%)		3-1
(75%)		  547-118
(82.3%)
Connecticut58-10
(85.3%)		54-17
(76.1%)		58-9
(86.6%)		58-12
(82.9%)		55-11
(83.3%)		13-5
(72.2%)		45-19
(70.3%)		22-2
(91.7%)		3-1
(75%)		 482-106
(82%)
Delaware20-4
(83.3%)		17-6
(73.9%)		18-6
(75%)		19-4
(82.6%)		16-6
(72.7%)		2-2
(50%)		2-2
(50%)		2-0
(100%)		  134-39
(77.5%)
District of Columbia9-2
(81.8%)		10-1
(90.9%)		10-1
(90.9%)		9-1
(90%)		2-1
(66.7%)		1-0
(100%)		0-1
(0%)		   59-10
(85.5%)
Florida152-39
(79.6%)		180-34
(84.1%)		166-43
(79.4%)		186-40
(82.3%)		160-30
(84.2%)		80-16
(83.3%)		42-6
(87.5%)		17-7
(70.8%)		8-4
(66.7%)		2-2
(50%)		1337-293
(82%)
Georgia173-34
(83.6%)		161-46
(77.8%)		178-30
(85.6%)		98-36
(73.1%)		80-13
(86%)		37-9
(80.4%)		17-6
(73.9%)		5-5
(50%)		3-2
(60%)		 1063-255
(80.7%)
Hawaii14-2
(87.5%)		10-4
(71.4%)		12-0
(100%)		3-0
(100%)		3-1
(75%)		3-1
(75%)		2-0
(100%)		   77-18
(81.1%)
Idaho36-7
(83.7%)		35-8
(81.4%)		29-5
(85.3%)		14-2
(87.5%)		7-1
(87.5%)		3-1
(75%)		    182-40
(82%)
Illinois238-36
(86.9%)		221-48
(82.2%)		106-21
(83.5%)		55-9
(85.9%)		26-7
(78.8%)		14-6
(70%)		7-2
(77.8%)		   1133-207
(84.6%)
Indiana131-27
(82.9%)		133-22
(85.8%)		70-11
(86.4%)		28-13
(68.3%)		19-2
(90.5%)		9-2
(81.8%)		4-1
(80%)		   659-129
(83.6%)
Iowa121-21
(85.2%)		124-20
(86.1%)		65-15
(81.3%)		38-10
(79.2%)		13-5
(72.2%)		7-2
(77.8%)		    612-112
(84.5%)
Kansas100-16
(86.2%)		97-19
(83.6%)		105-13
(89%)		61-11
(84.7%)		14-6
(70%)		7-3
(70%)		4-1
(80%)		   588-103
(85.1%)
Kentucky84-15
(84.8%)		83-17
(83%)		88-12
(88%)		78-15
(83.9%)		43-5
(89.6%)		22-2
(91.7%)		9-3
(75%)		5-1
(83.3%)		  567-100
(85%)
Louisiana121-12
(91%)		117-17
(87.3%)		110-23
(82.7%)		114-19
(85.7%)		68-11
(86.1%)		29-11
(72.5%)		14-6
(70%)		9-1
(90%)		2-3
(40%)		 784-150
(83.9%)
Maine28-8
(77.8%)		29-7
(80.6%)		20-5
(80%)		10-2
(83.3%)		6-0
(100%)		2-1
(66.7%)		    151-37
(80.3%)
Maryland91-15
(85.8%)		92-15
(86%)		93-17
(84.5%)		88-17
(83.8%)		25-11
(69.4%)		13-4
(76.5%)		4-5
(44.4%)		4-0
(100%)		  592-122
(82.9%)
Massachusetts120-18
(87%)		118-21
(84.9%)		113-26
(81.3%)		122-19
(86.5%)		111-25
(81.6%)		12-0
(100%)		100-29
(77.5%)		34-9
(79.1%)		  957-199
(82.8%)
Michigan223-41
(84.5%)		222-52
(81%)		94-34
(73.4%)		40-23
(63.5%)		22-10
(68.8%)		11-5
(68.8%)		4-4
(50%)		   1085-274
(79.8%)
Minnesota126-24
(84%)		123-20
(86%)		184-32
(85.2%)		31-9
(77.5%)		15-3
(83.3%)		10-2
(83.3%)		4-1
(80%)		   727-152
(82.7%)
Mississippi128-22
(85.3%)		126-22
(85.1%)		131-18
(87.9%)		103-11
(90.4%)		44-12
(78.6%)		24-4
(85.7%)		12-2
(85.7%)		4-2
(66.7%)		  820-149
(84.6%)
Missouri140-21
(87%)		135-22
(86%)		136-23
(85.5%)		63-14
(81.8%)		53-11
(82.8%)		8-4
(66.7%)		4-2
(66.7%)		   795-150
(84.1%)
Montana31-8
(79.5%)		27-10
(73%)		14-5
(73.7%)		11-1
(91.7%)		4-2
(66.7%)		1-2
(33.3%)		    153-37
(80.5%)
Nebraska64-16
(80%)		67-13
(83.8%)		38-10
(79.2%)		19-5
(79.2%)		9-3
(75%)		4-0
(100%)		2-2
(50%)		   343-67
(83.7%)
Nevada32-3
(91.4%)		27-6
(81.8%)		26-8
(76.5%)		20-4
(83.3%)		8-4
(66.7%)		6-0
(100%)		0-2
(0%)		1-0
(100%)		  176-40
(81.5%)
New Hampshire21-8
(72.4%)		23-5
(82.1%)		21-7
(75%)		17-2
(89.5%)		6-3
(66.7%)		3-0
(100%)		5-0
(100%)		   139-39
(78.1%)
New Jersey121-33
(78.6%)		132-19
(87.4%)		127-30
(80.9%)		129-30
(81.1%)		123-38
(76.4%)		34-8
(81%)		71-17
(80.7%)		15-4
(78.9%)		  1005-249
(80.1%)
New Mexico39-5
(88.6%)		34-12
(73.9%)		45-3
(93.8%)		23-9
(71.9%)		16-2
(88.9%)		11-4
(73.3%)		4-3
(57.1%)		1-2
(33.3%)		  239-60
(79.9%)
New York246-64
(79.4%)		245-61
(80.1%)		216-44
(83.1%)		102-24
(81%)		46-15
(75.4%)		20-8
(71.4%)		14-2
(87.5%)		 1-0
(100%)		 1382-356
(79.5%)
North Carolina160-24
(87%)		165-21
(88.7%)		144-39
(78.7%)		143-36
(79.9%)		107-23
(82.3%)		47-18
(72.3%)		23-8
(74.2%)		11-5
(68.8%)		6-2
(75%)		 1094-226
(82.9%)
North Dakota26-4
(86.7%)		17-4
(81%)		9-3
(75%)		3-3
(50%)		2-1
(66.7%)		     109-24
(82%)
Ohio300-63
(82.6%)		311-54
(85.2%)		305-55
(84.7%)		74-22
(77.1%)		36-12
(75%)		17-7
(70.8%)		9-3
(75%)		4-2
(66.7%)		  1678-320
(84%)
Oklahoma107-24
(81.7%)		107-24
(81.7%)		112-18
(86.2%)		115-15
(88.5%)		57-15
(79.2%)		27-9
(75%)		14-4
(77.8%)		6-3
(66.7%)		2-1
(66.7%)		 770-150
(83.7%)
Oregon84-8
(91.3%)		80-12
(87%)		67-9
(88.2%)		60-13
(82.2%)		38-10
(79.2%)		21-3
(87.5%)		9-3
(75%)		4-2
(66.7%)		1-0
(100%)		 503-107
(82.5%)
Pennsylvania254-46
(84.7%)		255-43
(85.6%)		246-48
(83.7%)		199-39
(83.6%)		108-31
(77.7%)		43-20
(68.3%)		40-17
(70.2%)		14-2
(87.5%)		8-0
(100%)		2-2
(50%)		1654-349
(82.6%)
Rhode Island10-8
(55.6%)		14-6
(70%)		17-4
(81%)		15-5
(75%)		13-4
(76.5%)		0-1
(0%)		15-6
(71.4%)		11-1
(91.7%)		  128-43
(74.9%)
South Carolina97-17
(85.1%)		97-17
(85.1%)		91-22
(80.5%)		72-12
(85.7%)		40-6
(87%)		17-6
(73.9%)		9-1
(90%)		1-3
(25%)		  609-120
(83.5%)
South Dakota28-4
(87.5%)		27-3
(90%)		21-2
(91.3%)		14-4
(77.8%)		3-0
(100%)		     146-21
(87.4%)
Tennessee129-21
(86%)		121-29
(80.7%)		137-23
(85.6%)		70-18
(79.5%)		47-9
(83.9%)		23-5
(82.1%)		8-4
(66.7%)		7-1
(87.5%)		  790-165
(82.7%)
Texas433-96
(81.9%)		436-100
(81.3%)		458-81
(85%)		430-93
(82.2%)		220-51
(81.2%)		134-34
(79.8%)		63-21
(75%)		32-10
(76.2%)		16-3
(84.2%)		4-5
(44.4%)		2975-659
(81.9%)
Utah36-7
(83.7%)		35-6
(85.4%)		26-6
(81.3%)		14-2
(87.5%)		7-1
(87.5%)		1-2
(33.3%)		    194-41
(82.6%)
Vermont9-8
(52.9%)		14-3
(82.4%)		17-0
(100%)		6-0
(100%)		3-0
(100%)		     72-21
(77.4%)
Virginia149-28
(84.2%)		145-30
(82.9%)		139-33
(80.8%)		143-27
(84.1%)		86-12
(87.8%)		44-7
(86.3%)		20-4
(83.3%)		9-3
(75%)		3-3
(50%)		 1012-213
(82.6%)
Washington120-30
(80%)		124-25
(83.2%)		124-24
(83.8%)		78-25
(75.7%)		33-9
(78.6%)		13-7
(65%)		5-2
(71.4%)		5-3
(62.5%)		  745-174
(81.1%)
West Virginia51-10
(83.6%)		49-9
(84.5%)		49-12
(80.3%)		42-6
(87.5%)		20-4
(83.3%)		8-4
(66.7%)		5-1
(83.3%)		2-0
(100%)		1-0
(100%)		 324-68
(82.7%)
Wisconsin181-32
(85%)		176-29
(85.9%)		132-27
(83%)		22-6
(78.6%)		11-3
(78.6%)		6-1
(85.7%)		    882-165
(84.2%)
Wyoming22-4
(84.6%)		22-3
(88%)		13-3
(81.3%)		8-0
(100%)		2-2
(50%)		     112-19
(85.5%)
Prep Schools37-6
(86%)		32-13
(71.1%)		35-8
(81.4%)		37-7
(84.1%)		24-8
(75%)		4-1
(80%)		    220-58
(79.1%)
 
NATIONAL5690-1124
(83.5%)		5675-1135
(83.3%)		5220-1031
(83.5%)		3797-824
(82.2%)		2380-553
(81.1%)		1075-285
(79%)		742-227
(76.6%)		292-95
(75.5%)		77-27
(74%)		13-11
(54.2%)		35901-7658
(82.4%)


Note: By comparison, blindly picking the team with the better record (and the home team in case of equal records), would have yielded the following percentage for the part of the season we pick:  68.4%
(In other words, anything up around 75-80% is pretty good, but it's important to understand that it's easy to pick 70% in regular-season high school football, due to the large number of mismatched games.)

out-of-state: 79.3% (in 521 games)