2009 PROJECTION ACCURACY BREAKDOWN      2008 data


State10/1610/2310/3011/611/1311/2011/2712/412/1112/18TOTALS
Alabama180-34
(84.1%)		172-36
(82.7%)		172-31
(84.7%)		88-18
(83%)		42-12
(77.8%)		17-10
(63%)		7-5
(58.3%)		2-4
(33.3%)		  1010-229
(81.5%)
Alaska1-1
(50%)		         9-5
(64.3%)
Arizona72-16
(81.8%)		82-9
(90.1%)		68-23
(74.7%)		57-18
(76%)		32-8
(80%)		14-6
(70%)		6-0
(100%)		3-3
(50%)		2-0
(100%)		 499-105
(82.6%)
Arkansas76-24
(76%)		86-14
(86%)		82-15
(84.5%)		84-18
(82.4%)		34-10
(77.3%)		28-10
(73.7%)		14-8
(63.6%)		11-0
(100%)		4-0
(100%)		1-0
(100%)		575-143
(80.1%)
California421-85
(83.2%)		419-78
(84.3%)		418-81
(83.8%)		418-83
(83.4%)		414-76
(84.5%)		209-51
(80.4%)		123-34
(78.3%)		52-22
(70.3%)		25-8
(75.8%)		5-0
(100%)		3235-714
(81.9%)
Colorado82-18
(82%)		85-21
(80.2%)		83-18
(82.2%)		85-9
(90.4%)		30-6
(83.3%)		13-5
(72.2%)		6-3
(66.7%)		3-1
(75%)		  567-110
(83.8%)
Connecticut55-13
(80.9%)		56-13
(81.2%)		57-11
(83.8%)		60-7
(89.6%)		51-11
(82.3%)		14-3
(82.4%)		53-11
(82.8%)		14-4
(77.8%)		  462-107
(81.2%)
Delaware16-7
(69.6%)		21-4
(84%)		20-4
(83.3%)		18-6
(75%)		18-4
(81.8%)		2-3
(40%)		2-2
(50%)		1-1
(50%)		  141-39
(78.3%)
District of Columbia8-2
(80%)		13-1
(92.9%)		11-1
(91.7%)		8-2
(80%)		3-1
(75%)		0-1
(0%)		0-1
(0%)		   60-13
(82.2%)
Florida181-28
(86.6%)		201-39
(83.8%)		188-39
(82.8%)		207-42
(83.1%)		174-32
(84.5%)		81-14
(85.3%)		36-12
(75%)		21-3
(87.5%)		7-5
(58.3%)		3-1
(75%)		1473-301
(83%)
Georgia160-34
(82.5%)		162-38
(81%)		174-31
(84.9%)		135-28
(82.8%)		77-16
(82.8%)		29-17
(63%)		10-13
(43.5%)		7-3
(70%)		1-4
(20%)		 1058-249
(80.9%)
Hawaii13-3
(81.3%)		14-2
(87.5%)		10-2
(83.3%)		9-4
(69.2%)		 3-1
(75%)		4-0
(100%)		2-0
(100%)		  89-18
(83.2%)
Idaho37-3
(92.5%)		25-15
(62.5%)		23-6
(79.3%)		15-1
(93.8%)		6-2
(75%)		1-3
(25%)		    170-47
(78.3%)
Illinois238-40
(85.6%)		237-45
(84%)		96-32
(75%)		52-16
(76.5%)		26-7
(78.8%)		14-6
(70%)		7-2
(77.8%)		   1134-244
(82.3%)
Indiana121-37
(76.6%)		129-29
(81.6%)		62-19
(76.5%)		35-6
(85.4%)		17-3
(85%)		7-3
(70%)		2-3
(40%)		   620-169
(78.6%)
Iowa121-28
(81.2%)		127-22
(85.2%)		68-12
(85%)		49-11
(81.7%)		4-2
(66.7%)		7-2
(77.8%)		    619-131
(82.5%)
Kansas102-18
(85%)		100-21
(82.6%)		102-16
(86.4%)		76-12
(86.4%)		10-10
(50%)		9-1
(90%)		4-1
(80%)		   609-116
(84%)
Kentucky83-20
(80.6%)		89-16
(84.8%)		80-21
(79.2%)		85-10
(89.5%)		41-7
(85.4%)		21-3
(87.5%)		10-2
(83.3%)		5-1
(83.3%)		  582-110
(84.1%)
Louisiana108-30
(78.3%)		115-26
(81.6%)		111-23
(82.8%)		108-26
(80.6%)		61-19
(76.3%)		33-7
(82.5%)		15-5
(75%)		8-2
(80%)		2-3
(40%)		 760-213
(78.1%)
Maine29-8
(78.4%)		31-5
(86.1%)		24-2
(92.3%)		6-6
(50%)		6-0
(100%)		1-2
(33.3%)		    159-33
(82.8%)
Maryland70-16
(81.4%)		103-25
(80.5%)		82-24
(77.4%)		89-16
(84.8%)		30-6
(83.3%)		14-3
(82.4%)		5-4
(55.6%)		3-1
(75%)		  574-136
(80.8%)
Massachusetts118-24
(83.1%)		114-25
(82%)		109-29
(79%)		113-27
(80.7%)		107-26
(80.5%)		15-4
(78.9%)		106-25
(80.9%)		42-13
(76.4%)		  938-238
(79.8%)
Michigan219-53
(80.5%)		221-52
(81%)		107-22
(82.9%)		52-12
(81.3%)		24-8
(75%)		13-3
(81.3%)		7-1
(87.5%)		   1119-261
(81.1%)
Minnesota124-32
(79.5%)		118-25
(82.5%)		172-40
(81.1%)		32-8
(80%)		12-8
(60%)		5-5
(50%)		3-2
(60%)		   719-177
(80.2%)
Mississippi127-29
(81.4%)		119-29
(80.4%)		121-18
(87.1%)		108-18
(85.7%)		52-6
(89.7%)		17-11
(60.7%)		10-3
(76.9%)		5-1
(83.3%)		  791-168
(82.5%)
Missouri142-25
(85%)		139-28
(83.2%)		147-19
(88.6%)		67-10
(87%)		47-17
(73.4%)		9-3
(75%)		4-2
(66.7%)		   836-149
(84.9%)
Montana29-8
(78.4%)		31-7
(81.6%)		17-2
(89.5%)		10-2
(83.3%)		5-1
(83.3%)		3-0
(100%)		    157-31
(83.5%)
Nebraska70-14
(83.3%)		74-10
(88.1%)		40-8
(83.3%)		19-5
(79.2%)		11-1
(91.7%)		3-1
(75%)		4-0
(100%)		   353-74
(82.7%)
Nevada30-5
(85.7%)		31-3
(91.2%)		30-4
(88.2%)		20-2
(90.9%)		8-4
(66.7%)		6-0
(100%)		2-0
(100%)		1-0
(100%)		  189-26
(87.9%)
New Hampshire25-4
(86.2%)		21-7
(75%)		22-5
(81.5%)		12-5
(70.6%)		8-1
(88.9%)		2-1
(66.7%)		3-1
(75%)		   140-33
(80.9%)
New Jersey127-39
(76.5%)		135-26
(83.9%)		136-27
(83.4%)		123-34
(78.3%)		121-31
(79.6%)		40-17
(70.2%)		67-28
(70.5%)		13-5
(72.2%)		  1017-275
(78.7%)
New Mexico28-9
(75.7%)		28-6
(82.4%)		34-4
(89.5%)		25-5
(83.3%)		14-4
(77.8%)		11-3
(78.6%)		4-3
(57.1%)		1-2
(33.3%)		  207-50
(80.5%)
New York223-50
(81.7%)		240-68
(77.9%)		188-47
(80%)		82-26
(75.9%)		40-13
(75.5%)		18-5
(78.3%)		9-4
(69.2%)		   1310-334
(79.7%)
North Carolina146-32
(82%)		148-35
(80.9%)		153-31
(83.2%)		149-29
(83.7%)		108-19
(85%)		60-11
(84.5%)		22-10
(68.8%)		14-2
(87.5%)		5-3
(62.5%)		 1091-227
(82.8%)
North Dakota27-3
(90%)		18-3
(85.7%)		12-0
(100%)		3-3
(50%)		2-1
(66.7%)		     112-20
(84.8%)
Ohio282-61
(82.2%)		279-67
(80.6%)		285-58
(83.1%)		80-15
(84.2%)		36-12
(75%)		16-8
(66.7%)		10-2
(83.3%)		4-2
(66.7%)		  1548-350
(81.6%)
Oklahoma116-19
(85.9%)		110-25
(81.5%)		112-23
(83%)		114-19
(85.7%)		51-12
(81%)		25-7
(78.1%)		13-3
(81.3%)		6-2
(75%)		2-0
(100%)		 767-158
(82.9%)
Oregon72-22
(76.6%)		76-17
(81.7%)		77-14
(84.6%)		81-12
(87.1%)		25-10
(71.4%)		26-6
(81.3%)		13-3
(81.3%)		7-1
(87.5%)		3-0
(100%)		 510-126
(80.2%)
Pennsylvania234-43
(84.5%)		262-61
(81.1%)		259-37
(87.5%)		189-52
(78.4%)		128-23
(84.8%)		48-15
(76.2%)		48-12
(80%)		10-6
(62.5%)		7-1
(87.5%)		2-2
(50%)		1670-366
(82%)
Rhode Island13-4
(76.5%)		16-5
(76.2%)		17-3
(85%)		15-6
(71.4%)		13-1
(92.9%)		1-3
(25%)		15-6
(71.4%)		5-5
(50%)		  124-44
(73.8%)
South Carolina92-19
(82.9%)		98-16
(86%)		93-22
(80.9%)		67-16
(80.7%)		41-5
(89.1%)		17-6
(73.9%)		6-4
(60%)		1-3
(25%)		  595-135
(81.5%)
South Dakota27-5
(84.4%)		24-5
(82.8%)		18-5
(78.3%)		16-2
(88.9%)		1-2
(33.3%)		     137-31
(81.5%)
Tennessee134-23
(85.4%)		128-20
(86.5%)		135-27
(83.3%)		70-17
(80.5%)		47-9
(83.9%)		21-7
(75%)		8-4
(66.7%)		5-3
(62.5%)		  796-164
(82.9%)
Texas427-103
(80.6%)		441-92
(82.7%)		444-89
(83.3%)		418-94
(81.6%)		214-47
(82%)		115-36
(76.2%)		53-23
(69.7%)		30-8
(78.9%)		15-2
(88.2%)		4-3
(57.1%)		2893-689
(80.8%)
Utah36-9
(80%)		35-4
(89.7%)		26-4
(86.7%)		13-3
(81.3%)		4-4
(50%)		3-0
(100%)		    171-39
(81.4%)
Vermont11-2
(84.6%)		12-5
(70.6%)		15-2
(88.2%)		3-3
(50%)		3-0
(100%)		     68-21
(76.4%)
Virginia123-28
(81.5%)		170-23
(88.1%)		134-33
(80.2%)		132-36
(78.6%)		49-16
(75.4%)		66-15
(81.5%)		13-11
(54.2%)		7-4
(63.6%)		5-2
(71.4%)		 982-219
(81.8%)
Washington120-28
(81.1%)		113-28
(80.1%)		123-24
(83.7%)		73-11
(86.9%)		32-9
(78%)		16-4
(80%)		7-3
(70%)		4-1
(80%)		  725-156
(82.3%)
West Virginia49-11
(81.7%)		52-7
(88.1%)		46-10
(82.1%)		49-4
(92.5%)		21-3
(87.5%)		10-2
(83.3%)		3-3
(50%)		3-0
(100%)		  338-61
(84.7%)
Wisconsin176-38
(82.2%)		172-35
(83.1%)		138-30
(82.1%)		21-7
(75%)		10-4
(71.4%)		5-2
(71.4%)		    862-191
(81.9%)
Wyoming19-11
(63.3%)		19-7
(73.1%)		16-0
(100%)		7-2
(77.8%)		1-3
(25%)		     104-31
(77%)
Prep Schools31-14
(68.9%)		34-7
(82.9%)		27-11
(71.1%)		36-4
(90%)		27-7
(79.4%)		3-2
(60%)		    211-58
(78.4%)
 
NATIONAL5526-1218
(81.9%)		5708-1199
(82.6%)		5162-1054
(83%)		3868-827
(82.4%)		2333-537
(81.3%)		1091-328
(76.9%)		732-259
(73.9%)		290-103
(73.8%)		78-28
(73.6%)		15-6
(71.4%)		35668-8076
(81.5%)


Note: By comparison, blindly picking the team with the better record (and the home team in case of equal records), would have yielded the following percentage for the part of the season we pick:  68.4%
(In other words, anything up around 75-80% is pretty good, but it's important to understand that it's easy to pick 70% in regular-season high school football, due to the large number of mismatched games.)

out-of-state: 82.5% (in 526 games)