2009 PROJECTION ACCURACY BREAKDOWN      2008 data


State8/78/148/218/289/49/119/189/2510/210/910/1610/2310/3011/611/1311/2011/2712/412/1112/18TOTALS
Alabama  3-1
(75%)
31-11
(73.8%)
50-14
(78.1%)
160-44
(78.4%)
169-36
(82.4%)
174-40
(81.3%)
169-38
(81.6%)
161-41
(79.7%)
180-34
(84.1%)
172-36
(82.7%)
172-31
(84.7%)
88-18
(83%)
42-12
(77.8%)
17-10
(63%)
7-5
(58.3%)
2-4
(33.3%)
  1597-375
(81%)
Alaska5-0
(100%)
5-1
(83.3%)
13-1
(92.9%)
13-2
(86.7%)
13-2
(86.7%)
14-2
(87.5%)
13-2
(86.7%)
11-5
(68.8%)
4-4
(50%)
4-0
(100%)
1-1
(50%)
         96-20
(82.8%)
Arizona  1-0
(100%)
34-10
(77.3%)
55-19
(74.3%)
69-18
(79.3%)
69-19
(78.4%)
76-19
(80%)
84-10
(89.4%)
79-12
(86.8%)
72-16
(81.8%)
82-9
(90.1%)
68-23
(74.7%)
57-18
(76%)
32-8
(80%)
14-6
(70%)
6-0
(100%)
3-3
(50%)
2-0
(100%)
 803-190
(80.9%)
Arkansas    69-28
(71.1%)
87-16
(84.5%)
73-27
(73%)
72-28
(72%)
80-19
(80.8%)
75-25
(75%)
76-24
(76%)
86-14
(86%)
82-15
(84.5%)
84-18
(82.4%)
34-10
(77.3%)
28-10
(73.7%)
14-8
(63.6%)
11-0
(100%)
4-0
(100%)
1-0
(100%)
876-242
(78.4%)
California   6-6
(50%)
178-62
(74.2%)
344-110
(75.8%)
359-113
(76.1%)
360-114
(75.9%)
384-97
(79.8%)
347-99
(77.8%)
421-85
(83.2%)
419-78
(84.3%)
418-81
(83.8%)
418-83
(83.4%)
414-76
(84.5%)
209-51
(80.4%)
123-34
(78.3%)
52-22
(70.3%)
25-8
(75.8%)
5-0
(100%)
4482-1119
(80%)
Colorado   12-2
(85.7%)
69-15
(82.1%)
69-19
(78.4%)
85-22
(79.4%)
75-28
(72.8%)
87-16
(84.5%)
93-13
(87.7%)
82-18
(82%)
85-21
(80.2%)
83-18
(82.2%)
85-9
(90.4%)
30-6
(83.3%)
13-5
(72.2%)
6-3
(66.7%)
3-1
(75%)
  877-196
(81.7%)
Connecticut      34-9
(79.1%)
35-11
(76.1%)
45-22
(67.2%)
57-12
(82.6%)
55-13
(80.9%)
56-13
(81.2%)
57-11
(83.8%)
60-7
(89.6%)
51-11
(82.3%)
14-3
(82.4%)
53-11
(82.8%)
14-4
(77.8%)
  531-127
(80.7%)
Delaware     8-1
(88.9%)
6-4
(60%)
20-6
(76.9%)
21-4
(84%)
22-4
(84.6%)
16-7
(69.6%)
21-4
(84%)
20-4
(83.3%)
18-6
(75%)
18-4
(81.8%)
2-3
(40%)
2-2
(50%)
1-1
(50%)
  175-50
(77.8%)
District of Columbia   5-0
(100%)
9-2
(81.8%)
8-2
(80%)
7-3
(70%)
9-3
(75%)
7-2
(77.8%)
10-2
(83.3%)
8-2
(80%)
13-1
(92.9%)
11-1
(91.7%)
8-2
(80%)
3-1
(75%)
0-1
(0%)
0-1
(0%)
   98-23
(81%)
Florida   2-0
(100%)
120-45
(72.7%)
119-36
(76.8%)
166-45
(78.7%)
194-47
(80.5%)
182-46
(79.8%)
194-40
(82.9%)
181-28
(86.6%)
201-39
(83.8%)
188-39
(82.8%)
207-42
(83.1%)
174-32
(84.5%)
81-14
(85.3%)
36-12
(75%)
21-3
(87.5%)
7-5
(58.3%)
3-1
(75%)
2076-474
(81.4%)
Georgia  3-1
(75%)
71-17
(80.7%)
70-23
(75.3%)
137-48
(74.1%)
148-32
(82.2%)
148-34
(81.3%)
151-32
(82.5%)
155-33
(82.4%)
160-34
(82.5%)
162-38
(81%)
174-31
(84.9%)
135-28
(82.8%)
77-16
(82.8%)
29-17
(63%)
10-13
(43.5%)
7-3
(70%)
1-4
(20%)
 1638-404
(80.2%)
Hawaii 4-0
(100%)
3-3
(50%)
8-5
(61.5%)
12-4
(75%)
12-5
(70.6%)
16-3
(84.2%)
15-5
(75%)
16-4
(80%)
18-2
(90%)
13-3
(81.3%)
14-2
(87.5%)
10-2
(83.3%)
9-4
(69.2%)
 3-1
(75%)
4-0
(100%)
2-0
(100%)
  159-43
(78.7%)
Idaho   7-7
(50%)
21-3
(87.5%)
26-10
(72.2%)
27-15
(64.3%)
34-5
(87.2%)
32-8
(80%)
31-9
(77.5%)
37-3
(92.5%)
25-15
(62.5%)
23-6
(79.3%)
15-1
(93.8%)
6-2
(75%)
1-3
(25%)
    285-87
(76.6%)
Illinois   80-22
(78.4%)
78-17
(82.1%)
204-74
(73.4%)
220-61
(78.3%)
230-49
(82.4%)
238-45
(84.1%)
226-51
(81.6%)
238-40
(85.6%)
237-45
(84%)
96-32
(75%)
52-16
(76.5%)
26-7
(78.8%)
14-6
(70%)
7-2
(77.8%)
   1946-467
(80.6%)
Indiana  92-19
(82.9%)
92-25
(78.6%)
125-30
(80.6%)
129-31
(80.6%)
131-27
(82.9%)
133-22
(85.8%)
124-34
(78.5%)
123-35
(77.8%)
121-37
(76.6%)
129-29
(81.6%)
62-19
(76.5%)
35-6
(85.4%)
17-3
(85%)
7-3
(70%)
2-3
(40%)
   1322-323
(80.4%)
Iowa   19-14
(57.6%)
23-6
(79.3%)
117-32
(78.5%)
120-29
(80.5%)
122-27
(81.9%)
120-28
(81.1%)
123-26
(82.6%)
121-28
(81.2%)
127-22
(85.2%)
68-12
(85%)
49-11
(81.7%)
4-2
(66.7%)
7-2
(77.8%)
    1020-239
(81%)
Kansas    74-21
(77.9%)
72-20
(78.3%)
108-16
(87.1%)
92-30
(75.4%)
103-19
(84.4%)
103-18
(85.1%)
102-18
(85%)
100-21
(82.6%)
102-16
(86.4%)
76-12
(86.4%)
10-10
(50%)
9-1
(90%)
4-1
(80%)
   955-203
(82.5%)
Kentucky  14-6
(70%)
77-23
(77%)
74-26
(74%)
75-36
(67.6%)
80-22
(78.4%)
85-21
(80.2%)
81-18
(81.8%)
87-13
(87%)
83-20
(80.6%)
89-16
(84.8%)
80-21
(79.2%)
85-10
(89.5%)
41-7
(85.4%)
21-3
(87.5%)
10-2
(83.3%)
5-1
(83.3%)
  987-245
(80.1%)
Louisiana    39-12
(76.5%)
36-20
(64.3%)
105-31
(77.2%)
108-31
(77.7%)
90-43
(67.7%)
109-29
(79%)
108-30
(78.3%)
115-26
(81.6%)
111-23
(82.8%)
108-26
(80.6%)
61-19
(76.3%)
33-7
(82.5%)
15-5
(75%)
8-2
(80%)
2-3
(40%)
 1048-307
(77.3%)
Maine    8-3
(72.7%)
11-2
(84.6%)
27-9
(75%)
32-4
(88.9%)
29-6
(82.9%)
33-4
(89.2%)
29-8
(78.4%)
31-5
(86.1%)
24-2
(92.3%)
6-6
(50%)
6-0
(100%)
1-2
(33.3%)
    237-51
(82.3%)
Maryland   7-0
(100%)
47-20
(70.1%)
61-12
(83.6%)
82-24
(77.4%)
78-32
(70.9%)
85-23
(78.7%)
94-18
(83.9%)
70-16
(81.4%)
103-25
(80.5%)
82-24
(77.4%)
89-16
(84.8%)
30-6
(83.3%)
14-3
(82.4%)
5-4
(55.6%)
3-1
(75%)
  850-224
(79.1%)
Massachusetts     26-10
(72.2%)
36-8
(81.8%)
94-38
(71.2%)
105-30
(77.8%)
109-35
(75.7%)
118-24
(83.1%)
114-25
(82%)
109-29
(79%)
113-27
(80.7%)
107-26
(80.5%)
15-4
(78.9%)
106-25
(80.9%)
42-13
(76.4%)
  1094-294
(78.8%)
Michigan   57-36
(61.3%)
74-18
(80.4%)
229-57
(80.1%)
243-52
(82.4%)
238-57
(80.7%)
232-61
(79.2%)
244-49
(83.3%)
219-53
(80.5%)
221-52
(81%)
107-22
(82.9%)
52-12
(81.3%)
24-8
(75%)
13-3
(81.3%)
7-1
(87.5%)
   1960-481
(80.3%)
Minnesota    102-36
(73.9%)
106-34
(75.7%)
120-36
(76.9%)
132-24
(84.6%)
124-30
(80.5%)
129-27
(82.7%)
124-32
(79.5%)
118-25
(82.5%)
172-40
(81.1%)
32-8
(80%)
12-8
(60%)
5-5
(50%)
3-2
(60%)
   1179-307
(79.3%)
Mississippi  11-3
(78.6%)
9-4
(69.2%)
76-25
(75.2%)
106-33
(76.3%)
101-21
(82.8%)
116-21
(84.7%)
117-31
(79.1%)
117-23
(83.6%)
127-29
(81.4%)
119-29
(80.4%)
121-18
(87.1%)
108-18
(85.7%)
52-6
(89.7%)
17-11
(60.7%)
10-3
(76.9%)
5-1
(83.3%)
  1212-276
(81.5%)
Missouri   50-18
(73.5%)
61-16
(79.2%)
127-38
(77%)
134-29
(82.2%)
126-36
(77.8%)
140-25
(84.8%)
142-21
(87.1%)
142-25
(85%)
139-28
(83.2%)
147-19
(88.6%)
67-10
(87%)
47-17
(73.4%)
9-3
(75%)
4-2
(66.7%)
   1335-287
(82.3%)
Montana   8-4
(66.7%)
11-2
(84.6%)
15-2
(88.2%)
25-11
(69.4%)
31-5
(86.1%)
29-8
(78.4%)
33-3
(91.7%)
29-8
(78.4%)
31-7
(81.6%)
17-2
(89.5%)
10-2
(83.3%)
5-1
(83.3%)
3-0
(100%)
    247-55
(81.8%)
Nebraska   20-4
(83.3%)
24-12
(66.7%)
40-11
(78.4%)
67-16
(80.7%)
66-16
(80.5%)
64-20
(76.2%)
68-15
(81.9%)
70-14
(83.3%)
74-10
(88.1%)
40-8
(83.3%)
19-5
(79.2%)
11-1
(91.7%)
3-1
(75%)
4-0
(100%)
   570-133
(81.1%)
Nevada  1-0
(100%)
17-11
(60.7%)
21-9
(70%)
28-5
(84.8%)
30-6
(83.3%)
27-6
(81.8%)
29-5
(85.3%)
32-3
(91.4%)
30-5
(85.7%)
31-3
(91.2%)
30-4
(88.2%)
20-2
(90.9%)
8-4
(66.7%)
6-0
(100%)
2-0
(100%)
1-0
(100%)
  313-63
(83.2%)
New Hampshire    5-1
(83.3%)
4-0
(100%)
22-6
(78.6%)
23-5
(82.1%)
25-3
(89.3%)
22-6
(78.6%)
25-4
(86.2%)
21-7
(75%)
22-5
(81.5%)
12-5
(70.6%)
8-1
(88.9%)
2-1
(66.7%)
3-1
(75%)
   194-45
(81.2%)
New Jersey     61-26
(70.1%)
64-20
(76.2%)
119-25
(82.6%)
129-33
(79.6%)
126-35
(78.3%)
127-39
(76.5%)
135-26
(83.9%)
136-27
(83.4%)
123-34
(78.3%)
121-31
(79.6%)
40-17
(70.2%)
67-28
(70.5%)
13-5
(72.2%)
  1261-346
(78.5%)
New Mexico  0-1
(0%)
26-13
(66.7%)
27-11
(71.1%)
26-10
(72.2%)
33-7
(82.5%)
25-13
(65.8%)
28-11
(71.8%)
34-3
(91.9%)
28-9
(75.7%)
28-6
(82.4%)
34-4
(89.5%)
25-5
(83.3%)
14-4
(77.8%)
11-3
(78.6%)
4-3
(57.1%)
1-2
(33.3%)
  344-105
(76.6%)
New York    54-14
(79.4%)
91-34
(72.8%)
194-60
(76.4%)
233-81
(74.2%)
256-62
(80.5%)
254-59
(81.2%)
223-50
(81.7%)
240-68
(77.9%)
188-47
(80%)
82-26
(75.9%)
40-13
(75.5%)
18-5
(78.3%)
9-4
(69.2%)
   1882-523
(78.3%)
North Carolina  101-29
(77.7%)
101-39
(72.1%)
135-40
(77.1%)
129-46
(73.7%)
133-35
(79.2%)
136-37
(78.6%)
135-31
(81.3%)
160-24
(87%)
146-32
(82%)
148-35
(80.9%)
153-31
(83.2%)
149-29
(83.7%)
108-19
(85%)
60-11
(84.5%)
22-10
(68.8%)
14-2
(87.5%)
5-3
(62.5%)
 1835-453
(80.2%)
North Dakota   6-1
(85.7%)
6-2
(75%)
23-5
(82.1%)
23-7
(76.7%)
23-7
(76.7%)
23-7
(76.7%)
27-3
(90%)
27-3
(90%)
18-3
(85.7%)
12-0
(100%)
3-3
(50%)
2-1
(66.7%)
     193-42
(82.1%)
Ohio   144-64
(69.2%)
159-47
(77.2%)
270-73
(78.7%)
281-64
(81.4%)
285-59
(82.8%)
279-60
(82.3%)
278-65
(81%)
282-61
(82.2%)
279-67
(80.6%)
285-58
(83.1%)
80-15
(84.2%)
36-12
(75%)
16-8
(66.7%)
10-2
(83.3%)
4-2
(66.7%)
  2688-657
(80.4%)
Oklahoma    66-23
(74.2%)
66-21
(75.9%)
106-29
(78.5%)
115-21
(84.6%)
116-16
(87.9%)
102-32
(76.1%)
116-19
(85.9%)
110-25
(81.5%)
112-23
(83%)
114-19
(85.7%)
51-12
(81%)
25-7
(78.1%)
13-3
(81.3%)
6-2
(75%)
2-0
(100%)
 1120-252
(81.6%)
Oregon    37-13
(74%)
45-19
(70.3%)
69-17
(80.2%)
68-24
(73.9%)
60-22
(73.2%)
70-19
(78.7%)
72-22
(76.6%)
76-17
(81.7%)
77-14
(84.6%)
81-12
(87.1%)
25-10
(71.4%)
26-6
(81.3%)
13-3
(81.3%)
7-1
(87.5%)
3-0
(100%)
 729-199
(78.6%)
Pennsylvania    170-71
(70.5%)
184-55
(77%)
228-65
(77.8%)
237-61
(79.5%)
245-54
(81.9%)
238-60
(79.9%)
234-43
(84.5%)
262-61
(81.1%)
259-37
(87.5%)
189-52
(78.4%)
128-23
(84.8%)
48-15
(76.2%)
48-12
(80%)
10-6
(62.5%)
7-1
(87.5%)
2-2
(50%)
2489-618
(80.1%)
Rhode Island     15-4
(78.9%)
18-2
(90%)
12-8
(60%)
14-5
(73.7%)
15-6
(71.4%)
13-4
(76.5%)
16-5
(76.2%)
17-3
(85%)
15-6
(71.4%)
13-1
(92.9%)
1-3
(25%)
15-6
(71.4%)
5-5
(50%)
  169-58
(74.4%)
South Carolina  13-6
(68.4%)
32-9
(78%)
43-17
(71.7%)
80-30
(72.7%)
80-31
(72.1%)
88-20
(81.5%)
80-32
(71.4%)
100-13
(88.5%)
92-19
(82.9%)
98-16
(86%)
93-22
(80.9%)
67-16
(80.7%)
41-5
(89.1%)
17-6
(73.9%)
6-4
(60%)
1-3
(25%)
  931-249
(78.9%)
South Dakota   13-5
(72.2%)
20-7
(74.1%)
24-5
(82.8%)
27-4
(87.1%)
29-2
(93.5%)
25-6
(80.6%)
26-6
(81.3%)
27-5
(84.4%)
24-5
(82.8%)
18-5
(78.3%)
16-2
(88.9%)
1-2
(33.3%)
     250-54
(82.2%)
Tennessee  72-28
(72%)
96-27
(78%)
115-34
(77.2%)
128-30
(81%)
131-30
(81.4%)
123-23
(84.2%)
134-26
(83.8%)
114-28
(80.3%)
134-23
(85.4%)
128-20
(86.5%)
135-27
(83.3%)
70-17
(80.5%)
47-9
(83.9%)
21-7
(75%)
8-4
(66.7%)
5-3
(62.5%)
  1461-336
(81.3%)
Texas   348-142
(71%)
374-136
(73.3%)
397-113
(77.8%)
333-92
(78.4%)
402-105
(79.3%)
319-73
(81.4%)
413-119
(77.6%)
427-103
(80.6%)
441-92
(82.7%)
444-89
(83.3%)
418-94
(81.6%)
214-47
(82%)
115-36
(76.2%)
53-23
(69.7%)
30-8
(78.9%)
15-2
(88.2%)
4-3
(57.1%)
4747-1277
(78.8%)
Utah  29-13
(69%)
32-16
(66.7%)
41-7
(85.4%)
40-12
(76.9%)
41-8
(83.7%)
35-12
(74.5%)
36-8
(81.8%)
38-10
(79.2%)
36-9
(80%)
35-4
(89.7%)
26-4
(86.7%)
13-3
(81.3%)
4-4
(50%)
3-0
(100%)
    409-110
(78.8%)
Vermont    0-1
(0%)
3-0
(100%)
13-5
(72.2%)
15-3
(83.3%)
13-3
(81.3%)
11-6
(64.7%)
11-2
(84.6%)
12-5
(70.6%)
15-2
(88.2%)
3-3
(50%)
3-0
(100%)
     99-30
(76.7%)
Virginia   25-13
(65.8%)
47-22
(68.1%)
86-31
(73.5%)
109-39
(73.6%)
118-47
(71.5%)
146-25
(85.4%)
138-27
(83.6%)
123-28
(81.5%)
170-23
(88.1%)
134-33
(80.2%)
132-36
(78.6%)
49-16
(75.4%)
66-15
(81.5%)
13-11
(54.2%)
7-4
(63.6%)
5-2
(71.4%)
 1368-372
(78.6%)
Washington    54-26
(67.5%)
61-25
(70.9%)
106-31
(77.4%)
116-28
(80.6%)
120-25
(82.8%)
117-23
(83.6%)
120-28
(81.1%)
113-28
(80.1%)
123-24
(83.7%)
73-11
(86.9%)
32-9
(78%)
16-4
(80%)
7-3
(70%)
4-1
(80%)
  1062-266
(80%)
West Virginia   31-12
(72.1%)
35-14
(71.4%)
41-20
(67.2%)
49-15
(76.6%)
50-10
(83.3%)
53-12
(81.5%)
52-9
(85.2%)
49-11
(81.7%)
52-7
(88.1%)
46-10
(82.1%)
49-4
(92.5%)
21-3
(87.5%)
10-2
(83.3%)
3-3
(50%)
3-0
(100%)
  544-132
(80.5%)
Wisconsin   79-25
(76%)
81-20
(80.2%)
163-49
(76.9%)
161-47
(77.4%)
176-39
(81.9%)
169-37
(82%)
171-38
(81.8%)
176-38
(82.2%)
172-35
(83.1%)
138-30
(82.1%)
21-7
(75%)
10-4
(71.4%)
5-2
(71.4%)
    1522-371
(80.4%)
Wyoming   5-2
(71.4%)
10-1
(90.9%)
12-1
(92.3%)
24-4
(85.7%)
19-8
(70.4%)
24-3
(88.9%)
18-5
(78.3%)
19-11
(63.3%)
19-7
(73.1%)
16-0
(100%)
7-2
(77.8%)
1-3
(25%)
     174-47
(78.7%)
Prep Schools    1-0
(100%)
4-2
(66.7%)
6-4
(60%)
19-4
(82.6%)
19-8
(70.4%)
34-5
(87.2%)
31-14
(68.9%)
34-7
(82.9%)
27-11
(71.1%)
36-4
(90%)
27-7
(79.4%)
3-2
(60%)
    241-68
(78%)
 
NATIONAL5-0
(100%)
9-1
(90%)
346-107
(76.4%)
1501-570
(72.5%)
2892-947
(75.3%)
4274-1308
(76.6%)
4955-1327
(78.9%)
5333-1387
(79.4%)
5367-1272
(80.8%)
5538-1253
(81.5%)
5526-1218
(81.9%)
5708-1199
(82.6%)
5162-1054
(83%)
3868-827
(82.4%)
2333-537
(81.3%)
1091-328
(76.9%)
732-259
(73.9%)
290-103
(73.8%)
78-28
(73.6%)
15-6
(71.4%)
55023-13731
(80%)


Note: By comparison, blindly picking the team with the better record (and the home team in case of equal records), would have yielded the following percentage for the season:  70.3%
(In other words, anything up around 75-80% is pretty good, but it's important to understand that it's easy to pick 70% in regular-season high school football, due to the large number of mismatched games.)