2009 PROJECTION ACCURACY BREAKDOWN      2008 data


State10/1610/2310/3011/611/1311/2011/2712/412/1112/18TOTALS
Alabama180-34
(84.1%)
172-36
(82.7%)
172-31
(84.7%)
88-18
(83%)
42-12
(77.8%)
17-10
(63%)
7-5
(58.3%)
2-4
(33.3%)
  1010-229
(81.5%)
Alaska1-1
(50%)
         9-5
(64.3%)
Arizona72-16
(81.8%)
82-9
(90.1%)
68-23
(74.7%)
57-18
(76%)
32-8
(80%)
14-6
(70%)
6-0
(100%)
3-3
(50%)
2-0
(100%)
 499-105
(82.6%)
Arkansas76-24
(76%)
86-14
(86%)
82-15
(84.5%)
84-18
(82.4%)
34-10
(77.3%)
28-10
(73.7%)
14-8
(63.6%)
11-0
(100%)
4-0
(100%)
1-0
(100%)
575-143
(80.1%)
California421-85
(83.2%)
419-78
(84.3%)
418-81
(83.8%)
418-83
(83.4%)
414-76
(84.5%)
209-51
(80.4%)
123-34
(78.3%)
52-22
(70.3%)
25-8
(75.8%)
5-0
(100%)
3235-714
(81.9%)
Colorado82-18
(82%)
85-21
(80.2%)
83-18
(82.2%)
85-9
(90.4%)
30-6
(83.3%)
13-5
(72.2%)
6-3
(66.7%)
3-1
(75%)
  567-110
(83.8%)
Connecticut55-13
(80.9%)
56-13
(81.2%)
57-11
(83.8%)
60-7
(89.6%)
51-11
(82.3%)
14-3
(82.4%)
53-11
(82.8%)
14-4
(77.8%)
  462-107
(81.2%)
Delaware16-7
(69.6%)
21-4
(84%)
20-4
(83.3%)
18-6
(75%)
18-4
(81.8%)
2-3
(40%)
2-2
(50%)
1-1
(50%)
  141-39
(78.3%)
District of Columbia8-2
(80%)
13-1
(92.9%)
11-1
(91.7%)
8-2
(80%)
3-1
(75%)
0-1
(0%)
0-1
(0%)
   60-13
(82.2%)
Florida181-28
(86.6%)
201-39
(83.8%)
188-39
(82.8%)
207-42
(83.1%)
174-32
(84.5%)
81-14
(85.3%)
36-12
(75%)
21-3
(87.5%)
7-5
(58.3%)
3-1
(75%)
1473-301
(83%)
Georgia160-34
(82.5%)
162-38
(81%)
174-31
(84.9%)
135-28
(82.8%)
77-16
(82.8%)
29-17
(63%)
10-13
(43.5%)
7-3
(70%)
1-4
(20%)
 1058-249
(80.9%)
Hawaii13-3
(81.3%)
14-2
(87.5%)
10-2
(83.3%)
9-4
(69.2%)
 3-1
(75%)
4-0
(100%)
2-0
(100%)
  89-18
(83.2%)
Idaho37-3
(92.5%)
25-15
(62.5%)
23-6
(79.3%)
15-1
(93.8%)
6-2
(75%)
1-3
(25%)
    170-47
(78.3%)
Illinois238-40
(85.6%)
237-45
(84%)
96-32
(75%)
52-16
(76.5%)
26-7
(78.8%)
14-6
(70%)
7-2
(77.8%)
   1134-244
(82.3%)
Indiana121-37
(76.6%)
129-29
(81.6%)
62-19
(76.5%)
35-6
(85.4%)
17-3
(85%)
7-3
(70%)
2-3
(40%)
   620-169
(78.6%)
Iowa121-28
(81.2%)
127-22
(85.2%)
68-12
(85%)
49-11
(81.7%)
4-2
(66.7%)
7-2
(77.8%)
    619-131
(82.5%)
Kansas102-18
(85%)
100-21
(82.6%)
102-16
(86.4%)
76-12
(86.4%)
10-10
(50%)
9-1
(90%)
4-1
(80%)
   609-116
(84%)
Kentucky83-20
(80.6%)
89-16
(84.8%)
80-21
(79.2%)
85-10
(89.5%)
41-7
(85.4%)
21-3
(87.5%)
10-2
(83.3%)
5-1
(83.3%)
  582-110
(84.1%)
Louisiana108-30
(78.3%)
115-26
(81.6%)
111-23
(82.8%)
108-26
(80.6%)
61-19
(76.3%)
33-7
(82.5%)
15-5
(75%)
8-2
(80%)
2-3
(40%)
 760-213
(78.1%)
Maine29-8
(78.4%)
31-5
(86.1%)
24-2
(92.3%)
6-6
(50%)
6-0
(100%)
1-2
(33.3%)
    159-33
(82.8%)
Maryland70-16
(81.4%)
103-25
(80.5%)
82-24
(77.4%)
89-16
(84.8%)
30-6
(83.3%)
14-3
(82.4%)
5-4
(55.6%)
3-1
(75%)
  574-136
(80.8%)
Massachusetts118-24
(83.1%)
114-25
(82%)
109-29
(79%)
113-27
(80.7%)
107-26
(80.5%)
15-4
(78.9%)
106-25
(80.9%)
42-13
(76.4%)
  938-238
(79.8%)
Michigan219-53
(80.5%)
221-52
(81%)
107-22
(82.9%)
52-12
(81.3%)
24-8
(75%)
13-3
(81.3%)
7-1
(87.5%)
   1119-261
(81.1%)
Minnesota124-32
(79.5%)
118-25
(82.5%)
172-40
(81.1%)
32-8
(80%)
12-8
(60%)
5-5
(50%)
3-2
(60%)
   719-177
(80.2%)
Mississippi127-29
(81.4%)
119-29
(80.4%)
121-18
(87.1%)
108-18
(85.7%)
52-6
(89.7%)
17-11
(60.7%)
10-3
(76.9%)
5-1
(83.3%)
  791-168
(82.5%)
Missouri142-25
(85%)
139-28
(83.2%)
147-19
(88.6%)
67-10
(87%)
47-17
(73.4%)
9-3
(75%)
4-2
(66.7%)
   836-149
(84.9%)
Montana29-8
(78.4%)
31-7
(81.6%)
17-2
(89.5%)
10-2
(83.3%)
5-1
(83.3%)
3-0
(100%)
    157-31
(83.5%)
Nebraska70-14
(83.3%)
74-10
(88.1%)
40-8
(83.3%)
19-5
(79.2%)
11-1
(91.7%)
3-1
(75%)
4-0
(100%)
   353-74
(82.7%)
Nevada30-5
(85.7%)
31-3
(91.2%)
30-4
(88.2%)
20-2
(90.9%)
8-4
(66.7%)
6-0
(100%)
2-0
(100%)
1-0
(100%)
  189-26
(87.9%)
New Hampshire25-4
(86.2%)
21-7
(75%)
22-5
(81.5%)
12-5
(70.6%)
8-1
(88.9%)
2-1
(66.7%)
3-1
(75%)
   140-33
(80.9%)
New Jersey127-39
(76.5%)
135-26
(83.9%)
136-27
(83.4%)
123-34
(78.3%)
121-31
(79.6%)
40-17
(70.2%)
67-28
(70.5%)
13-5
(72.2%)
  1017-275
(78.7%)
New Mexico28-9
(75.7%)
28-6
(82.4%)
34-4
(89.5%)
25-5
(83.3%)
14-4
(77.8%)
11-3
(78.6%)
4-3
(57.1%)
1-2
(33.3%)
  207-50
(80.5%)
New York223-50
(81.7%)
240-68
(77.9%)
188-47
(80%)
82-26
(75.9%)
40-13
(75.5%)
18-5
(78.3%)
9-4
(69.2%)
   1310-334
(79.7%)
North Carolina146-32
(82%)
148-35
(80.9%)
153-31
(83.2%)
149-29
(83.7%)
108-19
(85%)
60-11
(84.5%)
22-10
(68.8%)
14-2
(87.5%)
5-3
(62.5%)
 1091-227
(82.8%)
North Dakota27-3
(90%)
18-3
(85.7%)
12-0
(100%)
3-3
(50%)
2-1
(66.7%)
     112-20
(84.8%)
Ohio282-61
(82.2%)
279-67
(80.6%)
285-58
(83.1%)
80-15
(84.2%)
36-12
(75%)
16-8
(66.7%)
10-2
(83.3%)
4-2
(66.7%)
  1548-350
(81.6%)
Oklahoma116-19
(85.9%)
110-25
(81.5%)
112-23
(83%)
114-19
(85.7%)
51-12
(81%)
25-7
(78.1%)
13-3
(81.3%)
6-2
(75%)
2-0
(100%)
 767-158
(82.9%)
Oregon72-22
(76.6%)
76-17
(81.7%)
77-14
(84.6%)
81-12
(87.1%)
25-10
(71.4%)
26-6
(81.3%)
13-3
(81.3%)
7-1
(87.5%)
3-0
(100%)
 510-126
(80.2%)
Pennsylvania234-43
(84.5%)
262-61
(81.1%)
259-37
(87.5%)
189-52
(78.4%)
128-23
(84.8%)
48-15
(76.2%)
48-12
(80%)
10-6
(62.5%)
7-1
(87.5%)
2-2
(50%)
1670-366
(82%)
Rhode Island13-4
(76.5%)
16-5
(76.2%)
17-3
(85%)
15-6
(71.4%)
13-1
(92.9%)
1-3
(25%)
15-6
(71.4%)
5-5
(50%)
  124-44
(73.8%)
South Carolina92-19
(82.9%)
98-16
(86%)
93-22
(80.9%)
67-16
(80.7%)
41-5
(89.1%)
17-6
(73.9%)
6-4
(60%)
1-3
(25%)
  595-135
(81.5%)
South Dakota27-5
(84.4%)
24-5
(82.8%)
18-5
(78.3%)
16-2
(88.9%)
1-2
(33.3%)
     137-31
(81.5%)
Tennessee134-23
(85.4%)
128-20
(86.5%)
135-27
(83.3%)
70-17
(80.5%)
47-9
(83.9%)
21-7
(75%)
8-4
(66.7%)
5-3
(62.5%)
  796-164
(82.9%)
Texas427-103
(80.6%)
441-92
(82.7%)
444-89
(83.3%)
418-94
(81.6%)
214-47
(82%)
115-36
(76.2%)
53-23
(69.7%)
30-8
(78.9%)
15-2
(88.2%)
4-3
(57.1%)
2893-689
(80.8%)
Utah36-9
(80%)
35-4
(89.7%)
26-4
(86.7%)
13-3
(81.3%)
4-4
(50%)
3-0
(100%)
    171-39
(81.4%)
Vermont11-2
(84.6%)
12-5
(70.6%)
15-2
(88.2%)
3-3
(50%)
3-0
(100%)
     68-21
(76.4%)
Virginia123-28
(81.5%)
170-23
(88.1%)
134-33
(80.2%)
132-36
(78.6%)
49-16
(75.4%)
66-15
(81.5%)
13-11
(54.2%)
7-4
(63.6%)
5-2
(71.4%)
 982-219
(81.8%)
Washington120-28
(81.1%)
113-28
(80.1%)
123-24
(83.7%)
73-11
(86.9%)
32-9
(78%)
16-4
(80%)
7-3
(70%)
4-1
(80%)
  725-156
(82.3%)
West Virginia49-11
(81.7%)
52-7
(88.1%)
46-10
(82.1%)
49-4
(92.5%)
21-3
(87.5%)
10-2
(83.3%)
3-3
(50%)
3-0
(100%)
  338-61
(84.7%)
Wisconsin176-38
(82.2%)
172-35
(83.1%)
138-30
(82.1%)
21-7
(75%)
10-4
(71.4%)
5-2
(71.4%)
    862-191
(81.9%)
Wyoming19-11
(63.3%)
19-7
(73.1%)
16-0
(100%)
7-2
(77.8%)
1-3
(25%)
     104-31
(77%)
Prep Schools31-14
(68.9%)
34-7
(82.9%)
27-11
(71.1%)
36-4
(90%)
27-7
(79.4%)
3-2
(60%)
    211-58
(78.4%)
 
NATIONAL5526-1218
(81.9%)
5708-1199
(82.6%)
5162-1054
(83%)
3868-827
(82.4%)
2333-537
(81.3%)
1091-328
(76.9%)
732-259
(73.9%)
290-103
(73.8%)
78-28
(73.6%)
15-6
(71.4%)
35668-8076
(81.5%)


Note: By comparison, blindly picking the team with the better record (and the home team in case of equal records), would have yielded the following percentage for the part of the season we pick:  68.4%
(In other words, anything up around 75-80% is pretty good, but it's important to understand that it's easy to pick 70% in regular-season high school football, due to the large number of mismatched games.)

out-of-state: 82.5% (in 526 games)