2007 PROJECTION ACCURACY BREAKDOWN      2006 data


State10/1910/2611/211/911/1611/2311/3012/712/1412/21TOTALS
Alabama178-34
(84%)
176-36
(83%)
164-40
(80.4%)
93-9
(91.2%)
41-10
(80.4%)
18-6
(75%)
10-2
(83.3%)
3-3
(50%)
  1043-202
(83.8%)
Alaska1-0
(100%)
         8-2
(80%)
Arizona68-20
(77.3%)
72-15
(82.8%)
62-11
(84.9%)
33-7
(82.5%)
12-8
(60%)
1-1
(50%)
5-3
(62.5%)
3-1
(75%)
  401-93
(81.2%)
Arkansas78-12
(86.7%)
79-13
(85.9%)
76-13
(85.4%)
40-8
(83.3%)
26-6
(81.3%)
10-6
(62.5%)
4-3
(57.1%)
1-2
(33.3%)
  456-102
(81.7%)
California408-89
(82.1%)
312-70
(81.7%)
458-98
(82.4%)
383-75
(83.6%)
201-36
(84.8%)
92-42
(68.7%)
43-18
(70.5%)
20-4
(83.3%)
2-1
(66.7%)
 2676-632
(80.9%)
Colorado83-21
(79.8%)
87-17
(83.7%)
69-8
(89.6%)
24-8
(75%)
11-5
(68.8%)
5-3
(62.5%)
1-2
(33.3%)
   456-97
(82.5%)
Connecticut54-13
(80.6%)
62-6
(91.2%)
61-9
(87.1%)
56-15
(78.9%)
16-1
(94.1%)
53-11
(82.8%)
14-4
(77.8%)
   434-79
(84.6%)
Delaware19-4
(82.6%)
19-1
(95%)
24-3
(88.9%)
16-6
(72.7%)
3-1
(75%)
3-1
(75%)
0-2
(0%)
   121-29
(80.7%)
District of Columbia14-2
(87.5%)
15-1
(93.8%)
14-1
(93.3%)
2-2
(50%)
3-0
(100%)
1-0
(100%)
    76-8
(90.5%)
Florida198-33
(85.7%)
178-50
(78.1%)
201-42
(82.7%)
169-46
(78.6%)
79-16
(83.2%)
35-13
(72.9%)
22-2
(91.7%)
10-2
(83.3%)
3-1
(75%)
 1264-291
(81.3%)
Georgia155-35
(81.6%)
161-29
(84.7%)
160-31
(83.8%)
142-26
(84.5%)
73-20
(78.5%)
35-11
(76.1%)
16-7
(69.6%)
8-2
(80%)
4-1
(80%)
 1038-232
(81.7%)
Hawaii11-6
(64.7%)
10-6
(62.5%)
11-5
(68.8%)
2-3
(40%)
3-1
(75%)
3-1
(75%)
0-2
(0%)
   80-27
(74.8%)
Idaho37-7
(84.1%)
25-5
(83.3%)
11-4
(73.3%)
6-2
(75%)
3-1
(75%)
     149-31
(82.8%)
Illinois221-55
(80.1%)
112-22
(83.6%)
54-16
(77.1%)
27-11
(71.1%)
15-4
(78.9%)
7-2
(77.8%)
    889-213
(80.7%)
Indiana127-30
(80.9%)
69-12
(85.2%)
32-9
(78%)
13-8
(61.9%)
5-6
(45.5%)
5-0
(100%)
    503-131
(79.3%)
Iowa130-24
(84.4%)
130-24
(84.4%)
37-2
(94.9%)
20-6
(76.9%)
4-5
(44.4%)
     570-119
(82.7%)
Kansas102-19
(84.3%)
98-23
(81%)
66-17
(79.5%)
17-3
(85%)
9-1
(90%)
5-0
(100%)
    502-104
(82.8%)
Kentucky83-21
(79.8%)
80-21
(79.2%)
75-18
(80.6%)
83-13
(86.5%)
41-7
(85.4%)
21-3
(87.5%)
9-3
(75%)
4-2
(66.7%)
  559-124
(81.8%)
Louisiana116-22
(84.1%)
116-24
(82.9%)
122-16
(88.4%)
69-11
(86.3%)
26-14
(65%)
13-7
(65%)
9-1
(90%)
3-2
(60%)
  697-153
(82%)
Maine29-4
(87.9%)
20-5
(80%)
8-1
(88.9%)
9-0
(100%)
0-3
(0%)
     118-25
(82.5%)
Maryland80-19
(80.8%)
48-11
(81.4%)
112-26
(81.2%)
78-21
(78.8%)
27-6
(81.8%)
16-1
(94.1%)
8-0
(100%)
3-1
(75%)
  537-121
(81.6%)
Massachusetts108-33
(76.6%)
115-23
(83.3%)
114-26
(81.4%)
130-15
(89.7%)
10-1
(90.9%)
103-26
(79.8%)
27-11
(71.1%)
   823-196
(80.8%)
Michigan231-48
(82.8%)
106-22
(82.8%)
51-13
(79.7%)
25-7
(78.1%)
9-7
(56.3%)
7-1
(87.5%)
    920-198
(82.3%)
Minnesota118-25
(82.5%)
188-33
(85.1%)
27-13
(67.5%)
14-6
(70%)
10-0
(100%)
4-1
(80%)
    611-134
(82%)
Mississippi137-15
(90.1%)
127-22
(85.2%)
123-25
(83.1%)
83-19
(81.4%)
41-9
(82%)
18-6
(75%)
10-2
(83.3%)
3-2
(60%)
  771-166
(82.3%)
Missouri136-26
(84%)
142-20
(87.7%)
139-24
(85.3%)
32-8
(80%)
21-7
(75%)
6-1
(85.7%)
    739-147
(83.4%)
Montana31-7
(81.6%)
16-3
(84.2%)
11-1
(91.7%)
5-1
(83.3%)
2-1
(66.7%)
     127-26
(83%)
Nebraska70-16
(81.4%)
45-10
(81.8%)
25-3
(89.3%)
16-4
(80%)
3-1
(75%)
     303-62
(83%)
Nevada28-4
(87.5%)
24-8
(75%)
16-7
(69.6%)
9-3
(75%)
5-1
(83.3%)
2-0
(100%)
1-0
(100%)
   135-38
(78%)
New Hampshire20-5
(80%)
22-4
(84.6%)
15-5
(75%)
7-1
(87.5%)
1-2
(33.3%)
4-0
(100%)
    111-26
(81%)
New Jersey136-23
(85.5%)
128-21
(85.9%)
132-29
(82%)
64-11
(85.3%)
34-9
(79.1%)
87-23
(79.1%)
16-4
(80%)
   847-189
(81.8%)
New Mexico33-6
(84.6%)
35-5
(87.5%)
34-5
(87.2%)
23-9
(71.9%)
15-3
(83.3%)
12-3
(80%)
5-2
(71.4%)
3-0
(100%)
  224-48
(82.4%)
New York238-71
(77%)
195-55
(78%)
106-41
(72.1%)
54-14
(79.4%)
27-4
(87.1%)
7-7
(50%)
1-0
(100%)
   1120-326
(77.5%)
North Carolina141-31
(82%)
84-19
(81.6%)
194-55
(77.9%)
105-26
(80.2%)
50-16
(75.8%)
28-4
(87.5%)
14-2
(87.5%)
5-3
(62.5%)
  892-237
(79%)
North Dakota23-1
(95.8%)
13-0
(100%)
5-1
(83.3%)
2-1
(66.7%)
      94-8
(92.2%)
Ohio293-65
(81.8%)
299-61
(83.1%)
84-12
(87.5%)
38-10
(79.2%)
14-10
(58.3%)
12-0
(100%)
2-4
(33.3%)
   1338-285
(82.4%)
Oklahoma108-19
(85%)
106-22
(82.8%)
113-16
(87.6%)
53-9
(85.5%)
28-4
(87.5%)
11-5
(68.8%)
7-1
(87.5%)
1-1
(50%)
  627-133
(82.5%)
Oregon76-16
(82.6%)
76-17
(81.7%)
77-18
(81.1%)
24-12
(66.7%)
25-7
(78.1%)
13-3
(81.3%)
4-4
(50%)
2-1
(66.7%)
  461-106
(81.3%)
Pennsylvania248-45
(84.6%)
222-42
(84.1%)
240-38
(86.3%)
120-20
(85.7%)
46-18
(71.9%)
49-11
(81.7%)
13-5
(72.2%)
6-2
(75%)
3-1
(75%)
 1415-303
(82.4%)
Rhode Island17-4
(81%)
18-2
(90%)
18-1
(94.7%)
16-3
(84.2%)
 18-3
(85.7%)
7-5
(58.3%)
   125-27
(82.2%)
South Carolina90-22
(80.4%)
83-27
(75.5%)
71-13
(84.5%)
36-10
(78.3%)
11-12
(47.8%)
7-3
(70%)
2-2
(50%)
   470-138
(77.3%)
South Dakota23-6
(79.3%)
18-6
(75%)
14-4
(77.8%)
2-1
(66.7%)
      113-25
(81.9%)
Tennessee126-32
(79.7%)
122-33
(78.7%)
136-20
(87.2%)
74-11
(87.1%)
36-8
(81.8%)
14-8
(63.6%)
8-2
(80%)
4-1
(80%)
  775-164
(82.5%)
Texas427-86
(83.2%)
422-100
(80.8%)
429-90
(82.7%)
419-82
(83.6%)
191-62
(75.5%)
102-38
(72.9%)
60-10
(85.7%)
22-12
(64.7%)
10-6
(62.5%)
4-2
(66.7%)
2859-648
(81.5%)
Utah33-4
(89.2%)
27-9
(75%)
15-1
(93.8%)
6-2
(75%)
2-1
(66.7%)
     156-33
(82.5%)
Vermont11-6
(64.7%)
12-5
(70.6%)
4-2
(66.7%)
2-1
(66.7%)
      58-19
(75.3%)
Virginia139-34
(80.3%)
72-18
(80%)
209-34
(86%)
81-16
(83.5%)
37-14
(72.5%)
16-8
(66.7%)
8-4
(66.7%)
5-1
(83.3%)
  818-209
(79.6%)
Washington109-22
(83.2%)
100-17
(85.5%)
60-9
(87%)
34-10
(77.3%)
16-4
(80%)
8-2
(80%)
4-1
(80%)
   558-122
(82.1%)
West Virginia50-9
(84.7%)
56-6
(90.3%)
36-12
(75%)
16-9
(64%)
9-4
(69.2%)
7-0
(100%)
3-0
(100%)
   267-67
(79.9%)
Wisconsin177-35
(83.5%)
134-35
(79.3%)
19-10
(65.5%)
13-1
(92.9%)
6-1
(85.7%)
     707-151
(82.4%)
Wyoming22-6
(78.6%)
14-6
(70%)
9-1
(90%)
4-1
(80%)
      94-26
(78.3%)
Prep Schools39-5
(88.6%)
34-6
(85%)
33-7
(82.5%)
32-6
(84.2%)
3-2
(60%)
     208-46
(81.9%)
 
NATIONAL5585-1188
(82.5%)
4894-1041
(82.5%)
4347-905
(82.8%)
2816-605
(82.3%)
1247-359
(77.6%)
854-261
(76.6%)
333-108
(75.5%)
106-42
(71.6%)
22-10
(68.8%)
4-2
(66.7%)
31138-7076
(81.5%)


Note: By comparison, blindly picking the team with the better record (and the home team in case of equal records), would have yielded the following percentage for the part of the season we pick:  67.2%
(In other words, anything up around 75-80% is pretty good, but it's important to understand that it's easy to pick 70% in regular-season high school football, due to the large number of mismatched games.)

out-of-state: 80.7% (in 467 games)