PROJECTION ACCURACY BREAKDOWN      2006 data


State8/108/178/248/319/79/149/219/2810/510/1210/1910/2611/211/911/1611/2311/3012/712/1412/21TOTALS
Alabama  5-2
(71.4%)
45-18
(71.4%)
56-16
(77.8%)
171-39
(81.4%)
179-31
(85.2%)
176-35
(83.4%)
179-31
(85.2%)
181-31
(85.4%)
178-34
(84%)
176-36
(83%)
164-40
(80.4%)
93-9
(91.2%)
41-10
(80.4%)
18-6
(75%)
10-2
(83.3%)
3-3
(50%)
  1675-343
(83%)
Alaska10-2
(83.3%)
10-2
(83.3%)
10-2
(83.3%)
12-3
(80%)
11-3
(78.6%)
12-2
(85.7%)
10-4
(71.4%)
12-3
(80%)
5-1
(83.3%)
2-1
(66.7%)
1-0
(100%)
         95-23
(80.5%)
Arizona  29-9
(76.3%)
53-13
(80.3%)
67-10
(87%)
66-16
(80.5%)
62-24
(72.1%)
65-17
(79.3%)
75-9
(89.3%)
70-18
(79.5%)
68-20
(77.3%)
72-15
(82.8%)
62-11
(84.9%)
33-7
(82.5%)
12-8
(60%)
1-1
(50%)
5-3
(62.5%)
3-1
(75%)
  743-182
(80.3%)
Arkansas   65-25
(72.2%)
76-19
(80%)
64-25
(71.9%)
74-12
(86%)
64-23
(73.6%)
69-19
(78.4%)
73-20
(78.5%)
78-12
(86.7%)
79-13
(85.9%)
76-13
(85.4%)
40-8
(83.3%)
26-6
(81.3%)
10-6
(62.5%)
4-3
(57.1%)
1-2
(33.3%)
  799-206
(79.5%)
California 0-1
(0%)
13-5
(72.2%)
167-53
(75.9%)
349-129
(73%)
360-123
(74.5%)
377-102
(78.7%)
367-114
(76.3%)
367-98
(78.9%)
390-101
(79.4%)
408-89
(82.1%)
312-70
(81.7%)
458-98
(82.4%)
383-75
(83.6%)
201-36
(84.8%)
92-42
(68.7%)
43-18
(70.5%)
20-4
(83.3%)
2-1
(66.7%)
 4309-1159
(78.8%)
Colorado  1-0
(100%)
18-10
(64.3%)
27-6
(81.8%)
84-17
(83.2%)
71-33
(68.3%)
91-14
(86.7%)
91-15
(85.8%)
85-18
(82.5%)
83-21
(79.8%)
87-17
(83.7%)
69-8
(89.6%)
24-8
(75%)
11-5
(68.8%)
5-3
(62.5%)
1-2
(33.3%)
   748-177
(80.9%)
Connecticut      28-9
(75.7%)
54-9
(85.7%)
57-12
(82.6%)
61-8
(88.4%)
54-13
(80.6%)
62-6
(91.2%)
61-9
(87.1%)
56-15
(78.9%)
16-1
(94.1%)
53-11
(82.8%)
14-4
(77.8%)
   516-97
(84.2%)
Delaware    7-8
(46.7%)
13-0
(100%)
20-4
(83.3%)
20-5
(80%)
18-5
(78.3%)
19-6
(76%)
19-4
(82.6%)
19-1
(95%)
24-3
(88.9%)
16-6
(72.7%)
3-1
(75%)
3-1
(75%)
0-2
(0%)
   181-46
(79.7%)
District of Columbia   6-1
(85.7%)
4-3
(57.1%)
9-1
(90%)
10-7
(58.8%)
15-1
(93.8%)
11-2
(84.6%)
16-0
(100%)
14-2
(87.5%)
15-1
(93.8%)
14-1
(93.3%)
2-2
(50%)
3-0
(100%)
1-0
(100%)
    120-21
(85.1%)
Florida  1-0
(100%)
178-55
(76.4%)
163-62
(72.4%)
148-67
(68.8%)
177-46
(79.4%)
180-46
(79.6%)
181-43
(80.8%)
188-43
(81.4%)
198-33
(85.7%)
178-50
(78.1%)
201-42
(82.7%)
169-46
(78.6%)
79-16
(83.2%)
35-13
(72.9%)
22-2
(91.7%)
10-2
(83.3%)
3-1
(75%)
 2111-567
(78.8%)
Georgia   35-11
(76.1%)
29-9
(76.3%)
129-32
(80.1%)
145-19
(88.4%)
153-37
(80.5%)
134-31
(81.2%)
150-39
(79.4%)
155-35
(81.6%)
161-29
(84.7%)
160-31
(83.8%)
142-26
(84.5%)
73-20
(78.5%)
35-11
(76.1%)
16-7
(69.6%)
8-2
(80%)
4-1
(80%)
 1529-340
(81.8%)
Hawaii 4-2
(66.7%)
3-0
(100%)
16-1
(94.1%)
12-3
(80%)
14-5
(73.7%)
16-3
(84.2%)
12-5
(70.6%)
21-0
(100%)
19-3
(86.4%)
11-6
(64.7%)
10-6
(62.5%)
11-5
(68.8%)
2-3
(40%)
3-1
(75%)
3-1
(75%)
0-2
(0%)
   157-46
(77.3%)
Idaho  3-4
(42.9%)
24-9
(72.7%)
27-8
(77.1%)
29-13
(69%)
36-5
(87.8%)
31-7
(81.6%)
34-7
(82.9%)
33-5
(86.8%)
37-7
(84.1%)
25-5
(83.3%)
11-4
(73.3%)
6-2
(75%)
3-1
(75%)
     299-77
(79.5%)
Illinois  65-19
(77.4%)
72-19
(79.1%)
224-53
(80.9%)
220-54
(80.3%)
224-53
(80.9%)
231-45
(83.7%)
214-64
(77%)
239-39
(86%)
221-55
(80.1%)
112-22
(83.6%)
54-16
(77.1%)
27-11
(71.1%)
15-4
(78.9%)
7-2
(77.8%)
    1925-456
(80.8%)
Indiana 73-21
(77.7%)
67-27
(71.3%)
120-38
(75.9%)
126-34
(78.8%)
128-31
(80.5%)
122-37
(76.7%)
129-33
(79.6%)
132-28
(82.5%)
120-38
(75.9%)
127-30
(80.9%)
69-12
(85.2%)
32-9
(78%)
13-8
(61.9%)
5-6
(45.5%)
5-0
(100%)
    1268-352
(78.3%)
Iowa  6-4
(60%)
100-50
(66.7%)
110-43
(71.9%)
126-26
(82.9%)
131-24
(84.5%)
130-23
(85%)
121-33
(78.6%)
128-25
(83.7%)
130-24
(84.4%)
130-24
(84.4%)
37-2
(94.9%)
20-6
(76.9%)
4-5
(44.4%)
     1173-289
(80.2%)
Kansas   29-13
(69%)
35-13
(72.9%)
90-35
(72%)
97-28
(77.6%)
97-26
(78.9%)
105-19
(84.7%)
100-22
(82%)
102-19
(84.3%)
98-23
(81%)
66-17
(79.5%)
17-3
(85%)
9-1
(90%)
5-0
(100%)
    850-219
(79.5%)
Kentucky  48-18
(72.7%)
46-15
(75.4%)
84-22
(79.2%)
82-21
(79.6%)
77-24
(76.2%)
79-18
(81.4%)
88-16
(84.6%)
75-20
(78.9%)
83-21
(79.8%)
80-21
(79.2%)
75-18
(80.6%)
83-13
(86.5%)
41-7
(85.4%)
21-3
(87.5%)
9-3
(75%)
4-2
(66.7%)
  975-242
(80.1%)
Louisiana   35-10
(77.8%)
30-14
(68.2%)
94-41
(69.6%)
107-34
(75.9%)
102-33
(75.6%)
109-31
(77.9%)
114-25
(82%)
116-22
(84.1%)
116-24
(82.9%)
122-16
(88.4%)
69-11
(86.3%)
26-14
(65%)
13-7
(65%)
9-1
(90%)
3-2
(60%)
  1065-285
(78.9%)
Maine   2-1
(66.7%)
1-0
(100%)
25-6
(80.6%)
29-6
(82.9%)
24-8
(75%)
24-9
(72.7%)
28-3
(90.3%)
29-4
(87.9%)
20-5
(80%)
8-1
(88.9%)
9-0
(100%)
0-3
(0%)
     199-46
(81.2%)
Maryland   2-0
(100%)
17-5
(77.3%)
27-5
(84.4%)
81-23
(77.9%)
77-22
(77.8%)
88-14
(86.3%)
77-22
(77.8%)
80-19
(80.8%)
48-11
(81.4%)
112-26
(81.2%)
78-21
(78.8%)
27-6
(81.8%)
16-1
(94.1%)
8-0
(100%)
3-1
(75%)
  741-176
(80.8%)
Massachusetts    13-5
(72.2%)
6-6
(50%)
94-31
(75.2%)
107-33
(76.4%)
104-35
(74.8%)
112-26
(81.2%)
108-33
(76.6%)
115-23
(83.3%)
114-26
(81.4%)
130-15
(89.7%)
10-1
(90.9%)
103-26
(79.8%)
27-11
(71.1%)
   1043-271
(79.4%)
Michigan  61-26
(70.1%)
50-25
(66.7%)
250-55
(82%)
249-59
(80.8%)
241-67
(78.2%)
257-50
(83.7%)
251-55
(82%)
240-45
(84.2%)
231-48
(82.8%)
106-22
(82.8%)
51-13
(79.7%)
25-7
(78.1%)
9-7
(56.3%)
7-1
(87.5%)
    2028-480
(80.9%)
Minnesota   97-46
(67.8%)
106-37
(74.1%)
120-31
(79.5%)
125-30
(80.6%)
124-31
(80%)
124-29
(81%)
126-27
(82.4%)
118-25
(82.5%)
188-33
(85.1%)
27-13
(67.5%)
14-6
(70%)
10-0
(100%)
4-1
(80%)
    1183-309
(79.3%)
Mississippi  7-3
(70%)
31-10
(75.6%)
45-18
(71.4%)
107-39
(73.3%)
115-28
(80.4%)
121-35
(77.6%)
110-36
(75.3%)
119-30
(79.9%)
137-15
(90.1%)
127-22
(85.2%)
123-25
(83.1%)
83-19
(81.4%)
41-9
(82%)
18-6
(75%)
10-2
(83.3%)
3-2
(60%)
  1197-299
(80%)
Missouri   88-39
(69.3%)
95-35
(73.1%)
120-41
(74.5%)
131-33
(79.9%)
131-30
(81.4%)
137-25
(84.6%)
126-36
(77.8%)
136-26
(84%)
142-20
(87.7%)
139-24
(85.3%)
32-8
(80%)
21-7
(75%)
6-1
(85.7%)
    1304-325
(80%)
Montana  1-0
(100%)
4-0
(100%)
10-2
(83.3%)
32-5
(86.5%)
32-5
(86.5%)
35-3
(92.1%)
30-7
(81.1%)
32-6
(84.2%)
31-7
(81.6%)
16-3
(84.2%)
11-1
(91.7%)
5-1
(83.3%)
2-1
(66.7%)
     241-41
(85.5%)
Nebraska  9-5
(64.3%)
26-6
(81.3%)
31-9
(77.5%)
64-25
(71.9%)
74-12
(86%)
74-13
(85.1%)
72-14
(83.7%)
72-14
(83.7%)
70-16
(81.4%)
45-10
(81.8%)
25-3
(89.3%)
16-4
(80%)
3-1
(75%)
     581-132
(81.5%)
Nevada  21-1
(95.5%)
15-11
(57.7%)
29-4
(87.9%)
27-10
(73%)
33-1
(97.1%)
27-6
(81.8%)
26-7
(78.8%)
24-8
(75%)
28-4
(87.5%)
24-8
(75%)
16-7
(69.6%)
9-3
(75%)
5-1
(83.3%)
2-0
(100%)
1-0
(100%)
   287-71
(80.2%)
New Hampshire   3-1
(75%)
5-0
(100%)
19-4
(82.6%)
23-2
(92%)
22-3
(88%)
23-2
(92%)
19-7
(73.1%)
20-5
(80%)
22-4
(84.6%)
15-5
(75%)
7-1
(87.5%)
1-2
(33.3%)
4-0
(100%)
    183-36
(83.6%)
New Jersey    75-27
(73.5%)
73-14
(83.9%)
111-37
(75%)
119-39
(75.3%)
122-38
(76.3%)
128-31
(80.5%)
136-23
(85.5%)
128-21
(85.9%)
132-29
(82%)
64-11
(85.3%)
34-9
(79.1%)
87-23
(79.1%)
16-4
(80%)
   1225-306
(80%)
New Mexico  1-0
(100%)
24-13
(64.9%)
30-12
(71.4%)
29-12
(70.7%)
26-13
(66.7%)
33-7
(82.5%)
30-12
(71.4%)
34-3
(91.9%)
33-6
(84.6%)
35-5
(87.5%)
34-5
(87.2%)
23-9
(71.9%)
15-3
(83.3%)
12-3
(80%)
5-2
(71.4%)
3-0
(100%)
  367-105
(77.8%)
New York   41-18
(69.5%)
91-28
(76.5%)
176-64
(73.3%)
193-71
(73.1%)
232-83
(73.7%)
239-71
(77.1%)
253-63
(80.1%)
238-71
(77%)
195-55
(78%)
106-41
(72.1%)
54-14
(79.4%)
27-4
(87.1%)
7-7
(50%)
1-0
(100%)
   1853-590
(75.8%)
North Carolina 104-36
(74.3%)
117-39
(75%)
126-44
(74.1%)
121-44
(73.3%)
100-29
(77.5%)
155-46
(77.1%)
128-33
(79.5%)
136-40
(77.3%)
135-41
(76.7%)
141-31
(82%)
84-19
(81.6%)
194-55
(77.9%)
105-26
(80.2%)
50-16
(75.8%)
28-4
(87.5%)
14-2
(87.5%)
5-3
(62.5%)
  1743-508
(77.4%)
North Dakota  6-2
(75%)
5-4
(55.6%)
20-8
(71.4%)
24-4
(85.7%)
22-6
(78.6%)
22-6
(78.6%)
24-4
(85.7%)
27-1
(96.4%)
23-1
(95.8%)
13-0
(100%)
5-1
(83.3%)
2-1
(66.7%)
      193-38
(83.5%)
Ohio  65-30
(68.4%)
70-26
(72.9%)
280-80
(77.8%)
277-90
(75.5%)
299-63
(82.6%)
291-68
(81.1%)
291-68
(81.1%)
305-55
(84.7%)
293-65
(81.8%)
299-61
(83.1%)
84-12
(87.5%)
38-10
(79.2%)
14-10
(58.3%)
12-0
(100%)
2-4
(33.3%)
   2620-642
(80.3%)
Oklahoma   21-5
(80.8%)
25-7
(78.1%)
102-28
(78.5%)
105-23
(82%)
107-20
(84.3%)
95-34
(73.6%)
105-22
(82.7%)
108-19
(85%)
106-22
(82.8%)
113-16
(87.6%)
53-9
(85.5%)
28-4
(87.5%)
11-5
(68.8%)
7-1
(87.5%)
1-1
(50%)
  987-216
(82%)
Oregon   13-6
(68.4%)
28-14
(66.7%)
54-19
(74%)
71-18
(79.8%)
71-19
(78.9%)
80-16
(83.3%)
84-12
(87.5%)
76-16
(82.6%)
76-17
(81.7%)
77-18
(81.1%)
24-12
(66.7%)
25-7
(78.1%)
13-3
(81.3%)
4-4
(50%)
2-1
(66.7%)
  698-182
(79.3%)
Pennsylvania   113-39
(74.3%)
127-35
(78.4%)
227-52
(81.4%)
217-75
(74.3%)
246-52
(82.6%)
230-64
(78.2%)
238-57
(80.7%)
248-45
(84.6%)
222-42
(84.1%)
240-38
(86.3%)
120-20
(85.7%)
46-18
(71.9%)
49-11
(81.7%)
13-5
(72.2%)
6-2
(75%)
3-1
(75%)
 2345-556
(80.8%)
Rhode Island    12-6
(66.7%)
9-7
(56.3%)
17-2
(89.5%)
15-6
(71.4%)
16-6
(72.7%)
15-3
(83.3%)
17-4
(81%)
18-2
(90%)
18-1
(94.7%)
16-3
(84.2%)
 18-3
(85.7%)
7-5
(58.3%)
   178-48
(78.8%)
South Carolina 3-2
(60%)
15-15
(50%)
36-14
(72%)
77-30
(72%)
83-19
(81.4%)
87-20
(81.3%)
80-26
(75.5%)
87-23
(79.1%)
83-26
(76.1%)
90-22
(80.4%)
83-27
(75.5%)
71-13
(84.5%)
36-10
(78.3%)
11-12
(47.8%)
7-3
(70%)
2-2
(50%)
   851-264
(76.3%)
South Dakota  16-4
(80%)
19-9
(67.9%)
23-6
(79.3%)
26-6
(81.3%)
30-1
(96.8%)
27-5
(84.4%)
28-4
(87.5%)
28-4
(87.5%)
23-6
(79.3%)
18-6
(75%)
14-4
(77.8%)
2-1
(66.7%)
      254-56
(81.9%)
Tennessee  62-20
(75.6%)
88-37
(70.4%)
117-28
(80.7%)
119-34
(77.8%)
136-21
(86.6%)
116-32
(78.4%)
130-23
(85%)
125-26
(82.8%)
126-32
(79.7%)
122-33
(78.7%)
136-20
(87.2%)
74-11
(87.1%)
36-8
(81.8%)
14-8
(63.6%)
8-2
(80%)
4-1
(80%)
  1413-336
(80.8%)
Texas   302-126
(70.6%)
328-95
(77.5%)
394-114
(77.6%)
332-86
(79.4%)
397-108
(78.6%)
341-72
(82.6%)
432-88
(83.1%)
427-86
(83.2%)
422-100
(80.8%)
429-90
(82.7%)
419-82
(83.6%)
191-62
(75.5%)
102-38
(72.9%)
60-10
(85.7%)
22-12
(64.7%)
10-6
(62.5%)
4-2
(66.7%)
4612-1177
(79.7%)
Utah 20-14
(58.8%)
28-12
(70%)
38-12
(76%)
40-11
(78.4%)
42-4
(91.3%)
36-9
(80%)
35-12
(74.5%)
36-9
(80%)
37-7
(84.1%)
33-4
(89.2%)
27-9
(75%)
15-1
(93.8%)
6-2
(75%)
2-1
(66.7%)
     395-107
(78.7%)
Vermont   0-2
(0%)
1-0
(100%)
11-5
(68.8%)
10-7
(58.8%)
12-5
(70.6%)
14-3
(82.4%)
15-2
(88.2%)
11-6
(64.7%)
12-5
(70.6%)
4-2
(66.7%)
2-1
(66.7%)
      92-38
(70.8%)
Virginia  5-3
(62.5%)
29-9
(76.3%)
55-19
(74.3%)
95-40
(70.4%)
119-42
(73.9%)
131-32
(80.4%)
127-35
(78.4%)
124-45
(73.4%)
139-34
(80.3%)
72-18
(80%)
209-34
(86%)
81-16
(83.5%)
37-14
(72.5%)
16-8
(66.7%)
8-4
(66.7%)
5-1
(83.3%)
  1252-354
(78%)
Washington   38-16
(70.4%)
38-7
(84.4%)
105-32
(76.6%)
115-32
(78.2%)
120-28
(81.1%)
123-27
(82%)
104-30
(77.6%)
109-22
(83.2%)
100-17
(85.5%)
60-9
(87%)
34-10
(77.3%)
16-4
(80%)
8-2
(80%)
4-1
(80%)
   974-237
(80.4%)
West Virginia  34-13
(72.3%)
43-5
(89.6%)
47-17
(73.4%)
53-16
(76.8%)
50-13
(79.4%)
46-14
(76.7%)
44-13
(77.2%)
46-14
(76.7%)
50-9
(84.7%)
56-6
(90.3%)
36-12
(75%)
16-9
(64%)
9-4
(69.2%)
7-0
(100%)
3-0
(100%)
   540-145
(78.8%)
Wisconsin  117-56
(67.6%)
134-55
(70.9%)
163-46
(78%)
169-47
(78.2%)
169-43
(79.7%)
185-32
(85.3%)
175-38
(82.2%)
183-31
(85.5%)
177-35
(83.5%)
134-35
(79.3%)
19-10
(65.5%)
13-1
(92.9%)
6-1
(85.7%)
     1644-430
(79.3%)
Wyoming  0-1
(0%)
6-3
(66.7%)
8-2
(80%)
20-9
(69%)
25-4
(86.2%)
20-8
(71.4%)
21-7
(75%)
24-5
(82.8%)
22-6
(78.6%)
14-6
(70%)
9-1
(90%)
4-1
(80%)
      173-53
(76.5%)
Prep Schools    3-0
(100%)
2-1
(66.7%)
6-3
(66.7%)
16-5
(76.2%)
32-12
(72.7%)
35-8
(81.4%)
39-5
(88.6%)
34-6
(85%)
33-7
(82.5%)
32-6
(84.2%)
3-2
(60%)
     235-55
(81%)
 
NATIONAL10-2
(83.3%)
213-77
(73.4%)
785-312
(71.6%)
2394-896
(72.8%)
3657-1121
(76.5%)
4723-1395
(77.2%)
5200-1357
(79.3%)
5385-1350
(80%)
5379-1306
(80.5%)
5551-1249
(81.6%)
5585-1188
(82.5%)
4894-1041
(82.5%)
4347-905
(82.8%)
2816-605
(82.3%)
1247-359
(77.6%)
854-261
(76.6%)
333-108
(75.5%)
106-42
(71.6%)
22-10
(68.8%)
4-2
(66.7%)
53505-13586
(79.7%)


Note: By comparison, blindly picking the team with the better record (and the home team in case of equal records), would have yielded the following percentage for the season:  70.8%
(In other words, anything up around 75-80% is pretty good, but it's important to understand that it's easy to pick 70% in regular-season high school football, due to the large number of mismatched games.)