2007 PROJECTION ACCURACY BREAKDOWN      2006 data


State10/1910/2611/211/911/1611/2311/3012/712/1412/21TOTALS
Alabama178-34
(84%)		176-36
(83%)		164-40
(80.4%)		93-9
(91.2%)		41-10
(80.4%)		18-6
(75%)		10-2
(83.3%)		3-3
(50%)		  1043-202
(83.8%)
Alaska1-0
(100%)		         8-2
(80%)
Arizona68-20
(77.3%)		72-15
(82.8%)		62-11
(84.9%)		33-7
(82.5%)		12-8
(60%)		1-1
(50%)		5-3
(62.5%)		3-1
(75%)		  401-93
(81.2%)
Arkansas78-12
(86.7%)		79-13
(85.9%)		76-13
(85.4%)		40-8
(83.3%)		26-6
(81.3%)		10-6
(62.5%)		4-3
(57.1%)		1-2
(33.3%)		  456-102
(81.7%)
California408-89
(82.1%)		312-70
(81.7%)		458-98
(82.4%)		383-75
(83.6%)		201-36
(84.8%)		92-42
(68.7%)		43-18
(70.5%)		20-4
(83.3%)		2-1
(66.7%)		 2676-632
(80.9%)
Colorado83-21
(79.8%)		87-17
(83.7%)		69-8
(89.6%)		24-8
(75%)		11-5
(68.8%)		5-3
(62.5%)		1-2
(33.3%)		   456-97
(82.5%)
Connecticut54-13
(80.6%)		62-6
(91.2%)		61-9
(87.1%)		56-15
(78.9%)		16-1
(94.1%)		53-11
(82.8%)		14-4
(77.8%)		   434-79
(84.6%)
Delaware19-4
(82.6%)		19-1
(95%)		24-3
(88.9%)		16-6
(72.7%)		3-1
(75%)		3-1
(75%)		0-2
(0%)		   121-29
(80.7%)
District of Columbia14-2
(87.5%)		15-1
(93.8%)		14-1
(93.3%)		2-2
(50%)		3-0
(100%)		1-0
(100%)		    76-8
(90.5%)
Florida198-33
(85.7%)		178-50
(78.1%)		201-42
(82.7%)		169-46
(78.6%)		79-16
(83.2%)		35-13
(72.9%)		22-2
(91.7%)		10-2
(83.3%)		3-1
(75%)		 1264-291
(81.3%)
Georgia155-35
(81.6%)		161-29
(84.7%)		160-31
(83.8%)		142-26
(84.5%)		73-20
(78.5%)		35-11
(76.1%)		16-7
(69.6%)		8-2
(80%)		4-1
(80%)		 1038-232
(81.7%)
Hawaii11-6
(64.7%)		10-6
(62.5%)		11-5
(68.8%)		2-3
(40%)		3-1
(75%)		3-1
(75%)		0-2
(0%)		   80-27
(74.8%)
Idaho37-7
(84.1%)		25-5
(83.3%)		11-4
(73.3%)		6-2
(75%)		3-1
(75%)		     149-31
(82.8%)
Illinois221-55
(80.1%)		112-22
(83.6%)		54-16
(77.1%)		27-11
(71.1%)		15-4
(78.9%)		7-2
(77.8%)		    889-213
(80.7%)
Indiana127-30
(80.9%)		69-12
(85.2%)		32-9
(78%)		13-8
(61.9%)		5-6
(45.5%)		5-0
(100%)		    503-131
(79.3%)
Iowa130-24
(84.4%)		130-24
(84.4%)		37-2
(94.9%)		20-6
(76.9%)		4-5
(44.4%)		     570-119
(82.7%)
Kansas102-19
(84.3%)		98-23
(81%)		66-17
(79.5%)		17-3
(85%)		9-1
(90%)		5-0
(100%)		    502-104
(82.8%)
Kentucky83-21
(79.8%)		80-21
(79.2%)		75-18
(80.6%)		83-13
(86.5%)		41-7
(85.4%)		21-3
(87.5%)		9-3
(75%)		4-2
(66.7%)		  559-124
(81.8%)
Louisiana116-22
(84.1%)		116-24
(82.9%)		122-16
(88.4%)		69-11
(86.3%)		26-14
(65%)		13-7
(65%)		9-1
(90%)		3-2
(60%)		  697-153
(82%)
Maine29-4
(87.9%)		20-5
(80%)		8-1
(88.9%)		9-0
(100%)		0-3
(0%)		     118-25
(82.5%)
Maryland80-19
(80.8%)		48-11
(81.4%)		112-26
(81.2%)		78-21
(78.8%)		27-6
(81.8%)		16-1
(94.1%)		8-0
(100%)		3-1
(75%)		  537-121
(81.6%)
Massachusetts108-33
(76.6%)		115-23
(83.3%)		114-26
(81.4%)		130-15
(89.7%)		10-1
(90.9%)		103-26
(79.8%)		27-11
(71.1%)		   823-196
(80.8%)
Michigan231-48
(82.8%)		106-22
(82.8%)		51-13
(79.7%)		25-7
(78.1%)		9-7
(56.3%)		7-1
(87.5%)		    920-198
(82.3%)
Minnesota118-25
(82.5%)		188-33
(85.1%)		27-13
(67.5%)		14-6
(70%)		10-0
(100%)		4-1
(80%)		    611-134
(82%)
Mississippi137-15
(90.1%)		127-22
(85.2%)		123-25
(83.1%)		83-19
(81.4%)		41-9
(82%)		18-6
(75%)		10-2
(83.3%)		3-2
(60%)		  771-166
(82.3%)
Missouri136-26
(84%)		142-20
(87.7%)		139-24
(85.3%)		32-8
(80%)		21-7
(75%)		6-1
(85.7%)		    739-147
(83.4%)
Montana31-7
(81.6%)		16-3
(84.2%)		11-1
(91.7%)		5-1
(83.3%)		2-1
(66.7%)		     127-26
(83%)
Nebraska70-16
(81.4%)		45-10
(81.8%)		25-3
(89.3%)		16-4
(80%)		3-1
(75%)		     303-62
(83%)
Nevada28-4
(87.5%)		24-8
(75%)		16-7
(69.6%)		9-3
(75%)		5-1
(83.3%)		2-0
(100%)		1-0
(100%)		   135-38
(78%)
New Hampshire20-5
(80%)		22-4
(84.6%)		15-5
(75%)		7-1
(87.5%)		1-2
(33.3%)		4-0
(100%)		    111-26
(81%)
New Jersey136-23
(85.5%)		128-21
(85.9%)		132-29
(82%)		64-11
(85.3%)		34-9
(79.1%)		87-23
(79.1%)		16-4
(80%)		   847-189
(81.8%)
New Mexico33-6
(84.6%)		35-5
(87.5%)		34-5
(87.2%)		23-9
(71.9%)		15-3
(83.3%)		12-3
(80%)		5-2
(71.4%)		3-0
(100%)		  224-48
(82.4%)
New York238-71
(77%)		195-55
(78%)		106-41
(72.1%)		54-14
(79.4%)		27-4
(87.1%)		7-7
(50%)		1-0
(100%)		   1120-326
(77.5%)
North Carolina141-31
(82%)		84-19
(81.6%)		194-55
(77.9%)		105-26
(80.2%)		50-16
(75.8%)		28-4
(87.5%)		14-2
(87.5%)		5-3
(62.5%)		  892-237
(79%)
North Dakota23-1
(95.8%)		13-0
(100%)		5-1
(83.3%)		2-1
(66.7%)		      94-8
(92.2%)
Ohio293-65
(81.8%)		299-61
(83.1%)		84-12
(87.5%)		38-10
(79.2%)		14-10
(58.3%)		12-0
(100%)		2-4
(33.3%)		   1338-285
(82.4%)
Oklahoma108-19
(85%)		106-22
(82.8%)		113-16
(87.6%)		53-9
(85.5%)		28-4
(87.5%)		11-5
(68.8%)		7-1
(87.5%)		1-1
(50%)		  627-133
(82.5%)
Oregon76-16
(82.6%)		76-17
(81.7%)		77-18
(81.1%)		24-12
(66.7%)		25-7
(78.1%)		13-3
(81.3%)		4-4
(50%)		2-1
(66.7%)		  461-106
(81.3%)
Pennsylvania248-45
(84.6%)		222-42
(84.1%)		240-38
(86.3%)		120-20
(85.7%)		46-18
(71.9%)		49-11
(81.7%)		13-5
(72.2%)		6-2
(75%)		3-1
(75%)		 1415-303
(82.4%)
Rhode Island17-4
(81%)		18-2
(90%)		18-1
(94.7%)		16-3
(84.2%)		 18-3
(85.7%)		7-5
(58.3%)		   125-27
(82.2%)
South Carolina90-22
(80.4%)		83-27
(75.5%)		71-13
(84.5%)		36-10
(78.3%)		11-12
(47.8%)		7-3
(70%)		2-2
(50%)		   470-138
(77.3%)
South Dakota23-6
(79.3%)		18-6
(75%)		14-4
(77.8%)		2-1
(66.7%)		      113-25
(81.9%)
Tennessee126-32
(79.7%)		122-33
(78.7%)		136-20
(87.2%)		74-11
(87.1%)		36-8
(81.8%)		14-8
(63.6%)		8-2
(80%)		4-1
(80%)		  775-164
(82.5%)
Texas427-86
(83.2%)		422-100
(80.8%)		429-90
(82.7%)		419-82
(83.6%)		191-62
(75.5%)		102-38
(72.9%)		60-10
(85.7%)		22-12
(64.7%)		10-6
(62.5%)		4-2
(66.7%)		2859-648
(81.5%)
Utah33-4
(89.2%)		27-9
(75%)		15-1
(93.8%)		6-2
(75%)		2-1
(66.7%)		     156-33
(82.5%)
Vermont11-6
(64.7%)		12-5
(70.6%)		4-2
(66.7%)		2-1
(66.7%)		      58-19
(75.3%)
Virginia139-34
(80.3%)		72-18
(80%)		209-34
(86%)		81-16
(83.5%)		37-14
(72.5%)		16-8
(66.7%)		8-4
(66.7%)		5-1
(83.3%)		  818-209
(79.6%)
Washington109-22
(83.2%)		100-17
(85.5%)		60-9
(87%)		34-10
(77.3%)		16-4
(80%)		8-2
(80%)		4-1
(80%)		   558-122
(82.1%)
West Virginia50-9
(84.7%)		56-6
(90.3%)		36-12
(75%)		16-9
(64%)		9-4
(69.2%)		7-0
(100%)		3-0
(100%)		   267-67
(79.9%)
Wisconsin177-35
(83.5%)		134-35
(79.3%)		19-10
(65.5%)		13-1
(92.9%)		6-1
(85.7%)		     707-151
(82.4%)
Wyoming22-6
(78.6%)		14-6
(70%)		9-1
(90%)		4-1
(80%)		      94-26
(78.3%)
Prep Schools39-5
(88.6%)		34-6
(85%)		33-7
(82.5%)		32-6
(84.2%)		3-2
(60%)		     208-46
(81.9%)
 
NATIONAL5585-1188
(82.5%)		4894-1041
(82.5%)		4347-905
(82.8%)		2816-605
(82.3%)		1247-359
(77.6%)		854-261
(76.6%)		333-108
(75.5%)		106-42
(71.6%)		22-10
(68.8%)		4-2
(66.7%)		31138-7076
(81.5%)


Note: By comparison, blindly picking the team with the better record (and the home team in case of equal records), would have yielded the following percentage for the part of the season we pick:  67.2%
(In other words, anything up around 75-80% is pretty good, but it's important to understand that it's easy to pick 70% in regular-season high school football, due to the large number of mismatched games.)

out-of-state: 80.7% (in 467 games)