PROJECTION ACCURACY BREAKDOWN      2006-2007 data


State11/1211/1911/2612/312/1012/1712/2412/311/71/141/211/282/42/112/182/253/33/103/173/24TOTALSState
Alabama  4-0
(100%)
51-8
(86.4%)
74-22
(77.1%)
46-14
(76.7%)
16-4
(80%)
61-28
(68.5%)
133-28
(82.6%)
137-36
(79.2%)
129-31
(80.6%)
140-25
(84.8%)
32-4
(88.9%)
10-3
(76.9%)
5-4
(55.6%)
3-2
(60%)
    841-209
(80.1%)
Alabama
Alaska      1-0
(100%)
1-1
(50%)
3-3
(50%)
12-4
(75%)
9-2
(81.8%)
16-1
(94.1%)
17-3
(85%)
15-4
(78.9%)
17-2
(89.5%)
19-2
(90.5%)
7-1
(87.5%)
   117-23
(83.6%)
Alaska
Arizona  11-7
(61.1%)
126-18
(87.5%)
187-35
(84.2%)
99-16
(86.1%)
52-14
(78.8%)
55-4
(93.2%)
208-34
(86%)
213-37
(85.2%)
216-29
(88.2%)
200-35
(85.1%)
64-5
(92.8%)
13-2
(86.7%)
5-1
(83.3%)
1-1
(50%)
    1450-238
(85.9%)
Arizona
Arkansas4-1
(80%)
5-1
(83.3%)
1-1
(50%)
26-8
(76.5%)
61-18
(77.2%)
28-7
(80%)
5-2
(71.4%)
58-16
(78.4%)
127-30
(80.9%)
161-36
(81.7%)
124-21
(85.5%)
144-18
(88.9%)
111-31
(78.2%)
55-19
(74.3%)
40-4
(90.9%)
1-0
(100%)
    957-213
(81.8%)
Arkansas
California  1-0
(100%)
121-37
(76.6%)
466-123
(79.1%)
505-107
(82.5%)
317-67
(82.6%)
391-64
(85.9%)
966-196
(83.1%)
1050-184
(85.1%)
961-179
(84.3%)
1061-185
(85.2%)
1018-174
(85.4%)
613-105
(85.4%)
338-50
(87.1%)
94-19
(83.2%)
63-18
(77.8%)
3-2
(60%)
  7968-1510
(84.1%)
California
Colorado    14-2
(87.5%)
56-20
(73.7%)
 49-7
(87.5%)
223-52
(81.1%)
244-51
(82.7%)
230-49
(82.4%)
239-55
(81.3%)
230-37
(86.1%)
240-36
(87%)
174-31
(84.9%)
20-4
(83.3%)
7-2
(77.8%)
1-0
(100%)
  1727-346
(83.3%)
Colorado
Connecticut    10-5
(66.7%)
89-25
(78.1%)
63-15
(80.8%)
126-22
(85.1%)
135-22
(86%)
129-26
(83.2%)
116-17
(87.2%)
132-16
(89.2%)
131-24
(84.5%)
70-11
(86.4%)
1-0
(100%)
1-0
(100%)
    1003-183
(84.6%)
Connecticut
Delaware    12-4
(75%)
27-4
(87.1%)
2-1
(66.7%)
20-5
(80%)
37-7
(84.1%)
36-4
(90%)
32-3
(91.4%)
41-9
(82%)
43-7
(86%)
30-5
(85.7%)
11-2
(84.6%)
     291-51
(85.1%)
Delaware
District of Columbia   2-0
(100%)
8-1
(88.9%)
10-1
(90.9%)
5-0
(100%)
6-2
(75%)
19-3
(86.4%)
15-1
(93.8%)
21-4
(84%)
15-7
(68.2%)
19-3
(86.4%)
18-2
(90%)
3-3
(50%)
     141-27
(83.9%)
District of Columbia
Florida 1-1
(50%)
14-8
(63.6%)
177-24
(88.1%)
313-47
(86.9%)
223-42
(84.2%)
32-8
(80%)
84-18
(82.4%)
380-66
(85.2%)
345-66
(83.9%)
265-50
(84.1%)
35-8
(81.4%)
7-1
(87.5%)
12-12
(50%)
5-0
(100%)
     1893-351
(84.4%)
Florida
Georgia  8-4
(66.7%)
67-25
(72.8%)
201-34
(85.5%)
79-16
(83.2%)
21-3
(87.5%)
107-30
(78.1%)
192-42
(82.1%)
160-35
(82.1%)
204-40
(83.6%)
196-32
(86%)
144-27
(84.2%)
3-0
(100%)
4-1
(80%)
3-2
(60%)
3-1
(75%)
 0-1
(0%)
 1392-293
(82.6%)
Georgia
Hawaii     0-2
(0%)
3-1
(75%)
6-0
(100%)
28-6
(82.4%)
35-5
(87.5%)
38-6
(86.4%)
25-4
(86.2%)
1-0
(100%)
       136-24
(85%)
Hawaii
Idaho0-1
(0%)
3-0
(100%)
51-10
(83.6%)
74-11
(87.1%)
78-16
(83%)
69-14
(83.1%)
14-3
(82.4%)
71-9
(88.8%)
84-13
(86.6%)
79-15
(84%)
69-11
(86.3%)
2-2
(50%)
        594-105
(85%)
Idaho
Illinois5-1
(83.3%)
9-4
(69.2%)
166-53
(75.8%)
241-70
(77.5%)
245-45
(84.5%)
153-28
(84.5%)
40-8
(83.3%)
180-34
(84.1%)
327-66
(83.2%)
290-59
(83.1%)
345-71
(82.9%)
272-48
(85%)
129-23
(84.9%)
5-2
(71.4%)
2-0
(100%)
     2409-512
(82.5%)
Illinois
Indiana17-4
(81%)
110-31
(78%)
257-52
(83.2%)
274-61
(81.8%)
226-58
(79.6%)
153-33
(82.3%)
66-15
(81.5%)
176-37
(82.6%)
268-56
(82.7%)
276-54
(83.6%)
291-60
(82.9%)
186-44
(80.9%)
6-0
(100%)
       2306-506
(82%)
Indiana
Iowa  8-3
(72.7%)
119-26
(82.1%)
172-33
(83.9%)
175-36
(82.9%)
 146-26
(84.9%)
265-48
(84.7%)
205-46
(81.7%)
228-56
(80.3%)
170-22
(88.5%)
55-18
(75.3%)
4-0
(100%)
 2-0
(100%)
    1549-314
(83.1%)
Iowa
Kansas   2-0
(100%)
20-2
(90.9%)
53-13
(80.3%)
 79-19
(80.6%)
168-27
(86.2%)
77-15
(83.7%)
83-19
(81.4%)
171-30
(85.1%)
149-30
(83.2%)
179-32
(84.8%)
103-24
(81.1%)
14-5
(73.7%)
1-0
(100%)
   1099-216
(83.6%)
Kansas
Kentucky  0-1
(0%)
44-11
(80%)
177-41
(81.2%)
77-21
(78.6%)
65-12
(84.4%)
120-28
(81.1%)
229-46
(83.3%)
162-47
(77.5%)
54-8
(87.1%)
48-10
(82.8%)
68-10
(87.2%)
42-11
(79.2%)
48-8
(85.7%)
4-1
(80%)
3-0
(100%)
   1141-255
(81.7%)
Kentucky
Louisiana10-2
(83.3%)
6-3
(66.7%)
46-21
(68.7%)
89-19
(82.4%)
116-26
(81.7%)
143-21
(87.2%)
27-8
(77.1%)
87-22
(79.8%)
185-41
(81.9%)
202-39
(83.8%)
189-33
(85.1%)
193-32
(85.8%)
178-23
(88.6%)
       1511-295
(83.7%)
Louisiana
Maine    2-1
(66.7%)
28-9
(75.7%)
21-5
(80.8%)
46-15
(75.4%)
73-18
(80.2%)
47-14
(77%)
61-5
(92.4%)
40-6
(87%)
41-8
(83.7%)
       359-81
(81.6%)
Maine
Maryland    22-5
(81.5%)
69-19
(78.4%)
8-2
(80%)
83-19
(81.4%)
172-29
(85.6%)
133-20
(86.9%)
147-31
(82.6%)
166-34
(83%)
179-36
(83.3%)
97-18
(84.3%)
41-11
(78.8%)
11-4
(73.3%)
5-1
(83.3%)
1-0
(100%)
  1134-229
(83.2%)
Maryland
Massachusetts     19-2
(90.5%)
39-12
(76.5%)
142-26
(84.5%)
231-44
(84%)
226-38
(85.6%)
229-40
(85.1%)
242-39
(86.1%)
248-36
(87.3%)
215-41
(84%)
63-13
(82.9%)
11-1
(91.7%)
3-0
(100%)
3-0
(100%)
  1671-292
(85.1%)
Massachusetts
Michigan   36-13
(73.5%)
283-68
(80.6%)
327-74
(81.5%)
39-9
(81.3%)
159-40
(79.9%)
360-94
(79.3%)
380-104
(78.5%)
343-98
(77.8%)
303-55
(84.6%)
326-77
(80.9%)
319-80
(79.9%)
21-3
(87.5%)
4-0
(100%)
2-0
(100%)
   2902-715
(80.2%)
Michigan
Minnesota   15-1
(93.8%)
182-47
(79.5%)
212-59
(78.2%)
64-9
(87.7%)
170-43
(79.8%)
285-72
(79.8%)
299-63
(82.6%)
308-54
(85.1%)
288-41
(87.5%)
289-49
(85.5%)
281-65
(81.2%)
230-49
(82.4%)
30-3
(90.9%)
13-7
(65%)
9-2
(81.8%)
  2675-564
(82.6%)
Minnesota
Mississippi16-5
(76.2%)
4-5
(44.4%)
37-10
(78.7%)
63-22
(74.1%)
89-17
(84%)
45-13
(77.6%)
9-4
(69.2%)
40-10
(80%)
106-23
(82.2%)
107-22
(82.9%)
83-11
(88.3%)
99-26
(79.2%)
70-11
(86.4%)
2-0
(100%)
1-0
(100%)
 0-1
(0%)
   773-180
(81.1%)
Mississippi
Missouri1-0
(100%)
1-0
(100%)
 4-5
(44.4%)
74-16
(82.2%)
95-20
(82.6%)
43-6
(87.8%)
98-34
(74.2%)
181-34
(84.2%)
205-36
(85.1%)
146-39
(78.9%)
163-32
(83.6%)
226-47
(82.8%)
219-40
(84.6%)
132-24
(84.6%)
90-16
(84.9%)
24-7
(77.4%)
5-1
(83.3%)
  1707-357
(82.7%)
Missouri
Montana    4-3
(57.1%)
48-17
(73.8%)
 46-8
(85.2%)
53-11
(82.8%)
66-10
(86.8%)
62-16
(79.5%)
62-6
(91.2%)
57-11
(83.8%)
20-3
(87%)
10-3
(76.9%)
1-0
(100%)
    429-88
(83%)
Montana
Nebraska   9-2
(81.8%)
117-19
(86%)
80-10
(88.9%)
9-2
(81.8%)
189-27
(87.5%)
254-39
(86.7%)
214-45
(82.6%)
163-27
(85.8%)
133-24
(84.7%)
196-27
(87.9%)
40-9
(81.6%)
2-2
(50%)
     1406-233
(85.8%)
Nebraska
Nevada  2-1
(66.7%)
16-2
(88.9%)
52-7
(88.1%)
46-17
(73%)
11-8
(57.9%)
29-3
(90.6%)
74-15
(83.1%)
57-15
(79.2%)
77-13
(85.6%)
72-11
(86.7%)
77-15
(83.7%)
4-0
(100%)
2-0
(100%)
     519-107
(82.9%)
Nevada
New Hampshire   4-0
(100%)
17-6
(73.9%)
36-8
(81.8%)
 40-7
(85.1%)
56-16
(77.8%)
42-10
(80.8%)
64-10
(86.5%)
43-9
(82.7%)
54-8
(87.1%)
39-7
(84.8%)
11-4
(73.3%)
0-1
(0%)
    406-86
(82.5%)
New Hampshire
New Jersey     9-1
(90%)
11-4
(73.3%)
111-20
(84.7%)
145-39
(78.8%)
179-53
(77.2%)
283-54
(84%)
270-50
(84.4%)
265-60
(81.5%)
157-40
(79.7%)
125-29
(81.2%)
18-4
(81.8%)
2-1
(66.7%)
   1575-355
(81.6%)
New Jersey
New Mexico 1-0
(100%)
1-1
(50%)
12-2
(85.7%)
27-14
(65.9%)
50-12
(80.6%)
5-0
(100%)
32-12
(72.7%)
61-24
(71.8%)
85-13
(86.7%)
104-22
(82.5%)
81-16
(83.5%)
82-26
(75.9%)
98-13
(88.3%)
73-18
(80.2%)
 1-0
(100%)
0-1
(0%)
  713-174
(80.4%)
New Mexico
New York   35-11
(76.1%)
182-57
(76.2%)
289-60
(82.8%)
33-11
(75%)
182-43
(80.9%)
418-90
(82.3%)
427-93
(82.1%)
146-40
(78.5%)
403-72
(84.8%)
420-81
(83.8%)
121-19
(86.4%)
19-10
(65.5%)
16-1
(94.1%)
3-2
(60%)
2-3
(40%)
 3-0
(100%)
2699-593
(82%)
New York
North Carolina1-0
(100%)
 8-1
(88.9%)
52-19
(73.2%)
130-29
(81.8%)
97-30
(76.4%)
25-5
(83.3%)
120-26
(82.2%)
227-39
(85.3%)
159-25
(86.4%)
224-43
(83.9%)
248-37
(87%)
236-33
(87.7%)
178-34
(84%)
8-2
(80%)
14-4
(77.8%)
3-2
(60%)
1-2
(33.3%)
  1731-331
(83.9%)
North Carolina
North Dakota   6-1
(85.7%)
44-10
(81.5%)
80-10
(88.9%)
20-6
(76.9%)
69-16
(81.2%)
100-23
(81.3%)
103-24
(81.1%)
115-20
(85.2%)
95-16
(85.6%)
36-9
(80%)
10-3
(76.9%)
11-2
(84.6%)
1-0
(100%)
    690-140
(83.1%)
North Dakota
Ohio  67-9
(88.2%)
288-94
(75.4%)
333-79
(80.8%)
405-89
(82%)
185-39
(82.6%)
305-67
(82%)
474-90
(84%)
444-86
(83.8%)
405-79
(83.7%)
448-75
(85.7%)
174-40
(81.3%)
16-3
(84.2%)
6-2
(75%)
5-2
(71.4%)
2-0
(100%)
   3557-754
(82.5%)
Ohio
Oklahoma 1-0
(100%)
11-1
(91.7%)
12-3
(80%)
56-17
(76.7%)
58-12
(82.9%)
3-0
(100%)
76-16
(82.6%)
113-20
(85%)
185-28
(86.9%)
70-10
(87.5%)
156-21
(88.1%)
120-16
(88.2%)
72-10
(87.8%)
6-1
(85.7%)
3-0
(100%)
2-0
(100%)
   944-155
(85.9%)
Oklahoma
Oregon   8-1
(88.9%)
66-25
(72.5%)
95-25
(79.2%)
16-11
(59.3%)
52-17
(75.4%)
136-25
(84.5%)
164-38
(81.2%)
143-33
(81.3%)
105-19
(84.7%)
86-23
(78.9%)
97-23
(80.8%)
76-13
(85.4%)
0-1
(0%)
    1044-254
(80.4%)
Oregon
Pennsylvania   46-14
(76.7%)
253-61
(80.6%)
366-73
(83.4%)
43-14
(75.4%)
272-60
(81.9%)
516-89
(85.3%)
449-66
(87.2%)
532-80
(86.9%)
456-104
(81.4%)
217-41
(84.1%)
23-1
(95.8%)
8-1
(88.9%)
10-1
(90.9%)
2-2
(50%)
2-1
(66.7%)
  3195-608
(84%)
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island    1-1
(50%)
9-1
(90%)
2-0
(100%)
8-2
(80%)
8-3
(72.7%)
11-5
(68.8%)
14-1
(93.3%)
16-2
(88.9%)
16-2
(88.9%)
13-2
(86.7%)
9-4
(69.2%)
     107-23
(82.3%)
Rhode Island
South Carolina   10-5
(66.7%)
95-20
(82.6%)
58-13
(81.7%)
8-3
(72.7%)
87-20
(81.3%)
154-25
(86%)
134-40
(77%)
136-28
(82.9%)
158-26
(85.9%)
143-24
(85.6%)
13-1
(92.9%)
3-0
(100%)
0-1
(0%)
    999-206
(82.9%)
South Carolina
South Dakota    16-8
(66.7%)
70-22
(76.1%)
39-6
(86.7%)
68-18
(79.1%)
105-27
(79.5%)
108-30
(78.3%)
110-32
(77.5%)
133-34
(79.6%)
131-24
(84.5%)
104-26
(80%)
9-1
(90%)
     893-228
(79.7%)
South Dakota
Tennessee 5-3
(62.5%)
55-20
(73.3%)
161-42
(79.3%)
273-58
(82.5%)
158-44
(78.2%)
51-6
(89.5%)
140-33
(80.9%)
312-49
(86.4%)
298-59
(83.5%)
264-54
(83%)
307-44
(87.5%)
256-34
(88.3%)
51-14
(78.5%)
9-2
(81.8%)
1-1
(50%)
    2341-463
(83.5%)
Tennessee
Texas29-5
(85.3%)
135-44
(75.4%)
138-40
(77.5%)
294-65
(81.9%)
418-102
(80.4%)
354-73
(82.9%)
71-18
(79.8%)
396-65
(85.9%)
546-108
(83.5%)
555-97
(85.1%)
594-104
(85.1%)
580-107
(84.4%)
286-60
(82.7%)
36-6
(85.7%)
14-2
(87.5%)
2-2
(50%)
    4448-898
(83.2%)
Texas
Utah  1-0
(100%)
26-6
(81.3%)
80-21
(79.2%)
58-13
(81.7%)
15-1
(93.8%)
44-10
(81.5%)
69-17
(80.2%)
77-12
(86.5%)
60-11
(84.5%)
72-13
(84.7%)
68-13
(84%)
25-4
(86.2%)
0-1
(0%)
     595-122
(83%)
Utah
Vermont     11-3
(78.6%)
6-2
(75%)
19-4
(82.6%)
23-7
(76.7%)
14-1
(93.3%)
28-7
(80%)
29-6
(82.9%)
19-8
(70.4%)
16-4
(80%)
11-4
(73.3%)
     176-46
(79.3%)
Vermont
Virginia   5-1
(83.3%)
74-16
(82.2%)
128-32
(80%)
26-9
(74.3%)
128-21
(85.9%)
214-50
(81.1%)
208-35
(85.6%)
188-36
(83.9%)
244-41
(85.6%)
243-39
(86.2%)
157-28
(84.9%)
15-6
(71.4%)
10-0
(100%)
4-1
(80%)
2-2
(50%)
0-1
(0%)
 1646-318
(83.8%)
Virginia
Washington   10-5
(66.7%)
49-8
(86%)
66-17
(79.5%)
44-9
(83%)
72-16
(81.8%)
128-20
(86.5%)
113-27
(80.7%)
111-25
(81.6%)
101-15
(87.1%)
88-25
(77.9%)
38-3
(92.7%)
1-0
(100%)
     821-170
(82.8%)
Washington
West Virginia    4-4
(50%)
51-21
(70.8%)
19-4
(82.6%)
56-9
(86.2%)
135-20
(87.1%)
95-22
(81.2%)
98-21
(82.4%)
100-11
(90.1%)
108-20
(84.4%)
85-16
(84.2%)
8-1
(88.9%)
3-2
(60%)
2-0
(100%)
   764-151
(83.5%)
West Virginia
Wisconsin  0-1
(0%)
76-17
(81.7%)
224-56
(80%)
268-61
(81.5%)
44-14
(75.9%)
173-39
(81.6%)
332-66
(83.4%)
271-74
(78.6%)
299-48
(86.2%)
230-45
(83.6%)
273-63
(81.3%)
283-60
(82.5%)
181-35
(83.8%)
5-2
(71.4%)
3-1
(75%)
   2662-582
(82.1%)
Wisconsin
Wyoming   8-2
(80%)
26-4
(86.7%)
17-4
(81%)
1-0
(100%)
48-8
(85.7%)
52-9
(85.2%)
58-2
(96.7%)
52-11
(82.5%)
50-10
(83.3%)
50-6
(89.3%)
45-12
(78.9%)
17-6
(73.9%)
1-0
(100%)
    425-74
(85.2%)
Wyoming
Prep Schools    1-2
(33.3%)
4-1
(80%)
 9-2
(81.8%)
44-4
(91.7%)
35-11
(76.1%)
39-6
(86.7%)
46-15
(75.4%)
54-12
(81.8%)
24-9
(72.7%)
18-3
(85.7%)
6-0
(100%)
   1-0
(100%)
281-65
(81.2%)
Prep Schools
 
NATIONAL82-19
(81.2%)
278-92
(75.1%)
881-242
(78.5%)
2574-642
(80%)
5490-1268
(81.2%)
5563-1228
(81.9%)
1522-350
(81.3%)
5245-1105
(82.6%)
9988-1998
(83.3%)
9648-1946
(83.2%)
9182-1765
(83.9%)
9119-1612
(85%)
7443-1381
(84.3%)
4150-826
(83.4%)
1886-374
(83.5%)
401-80
(83.4%)
155-47
(76.7%)
29-14
(67.4%)
0-1
(0%)
3-0
(100%)
73687-14996
(83.1%)
NATIONAL


Note: By comparison, blindly picking the team with the better record (and the home team in case of equal records), would have yielded the following percentage for the season:  73.6%
(In other words, anything up around 75-80% is pretty good, but it's important to understand that it's easy to pick 70% in regular-season high school basketball, due to the large number of mismatched games.)