PROJECTION ACCURACY BREAKDOWN      2006-2007 data


State11/1211/1911/2612/312/1012/1712/2412/311/71/141/211/282/42/112/182/253/33/103/173/24TOTALSState
Alabama  9-6
(60%)
64-30
(68.1%)
101-32
(75.9%)
70-29
(70.7%)
22-7
(75.9%)
104-14
(88.1%)
156-52
(75%)
154-38
(80.2%)
156-40
(79.6%)
157-44
(78.1%)
49-7
(87.5%)
14-3
(82.4%)
8-2
(80%)
1-1
(50%)
    1065-305
(77.7%)
Alabama
Alaska     2-0
(100%)
1-0
(100%)
3-1
(75%)
10-4
(71.4%)
16-4
(80%)
19-5
(79.2%)
21-8
(72.4%)
24-5
(82.8%)
17-7
(70.8%)
24-4
(85.7%)
25-3
(89.3%)
5-2
(71.4%)
 1-0
(100%)
 168-43
(79.6%)
Alaska
Arizona  12-5
(70.6%)
99-36
(73.3%)
177-48
(78.7%)
95-30
(76%)
60-28
(68.2%)
52-14
(78.8%)
223-32
(87.5%)
209-41
(83.6%)
199-52
(79.3%)
186-48
(79.5%)
63-17
(78.8%)
15-6
(71.4%)
7-6
(53.8%)
3-1
(75%)
    1400-364
(79.4%)
Arizona
Arkansas10-1
(90.9%)
8-1
(88.9%)
10-0
(100%)
37-10
(78.7%)
78-27
(74.3%)
48-13
(78.7%)
7-1
(87.5%)
86-15
(85.1%)
148-38
(79.6%)
182-36
(83.5%)
136-33
(80.5%)
149-34
(81.4%)
137-30
(82%)
68-10
(87.2%)
33-10
(76.7%)
 1-0
(100%)
   1147-262
(81.4%)
Arkansas
California   124-34
(78.5%)
474-144
(76.7%)
620-147
(80.8%)
357-89
(80%)
401-97
(80.5%)
1020-226
(81.9%)
1072-247
(81.3%)
985-221
(81.7%)
1061-233
(82%)
1043-221
(82.5%)
599-151
(79.9%)
319-78
(80.4%)
86-35
(71.1%)
68-13
(84%)
3-2
(60%)
  8232-1938
(80.9%)
California
Colorado   2-3
(40%)
77-23
(77%)
78-27
(74.3%)
 44-16
(73.3%)
214-50
(81.1%)
238-56
(81%)
225-50
(81.8%)
252-48
(84%)
236-40
(85.5%)
229-45
(83.6%)
178-34
(84%)
10-2
(83.3%)
14-3
(82.4%)
1-2
(33.3%)
  1798-399
(81.8%)
Colorado
Connecticut     19-5
(79.2%)
72-28
(72%)
123-28
(81.5%)
126-38
(76.8%)
128-26
(83.1%)
115-27
(81%)
122-29
(80.8%)
129-29
(81.6%)
93-13
(87.7%)
94-26
(78.3%)
5-1
(83.3%)
8-2
(80%)
1-0
(100%)
  1035-252
(80.4%)
Connecticut
Delaware    10-6
(62.5%)
23-12
(65.7%)
4-2
(66.7%)
25-6
(80.6%)
36-10
(78.3%)
32-10
(76.2%)
38-8
(82.6%)
45-11
(80.4%)
41-18
(69.5%)
32-11
(74.4%)
10-4
(71.4%)
2-1
(66.7%)
    298-99
(75.1%)
Delaware
District of Columbia   1-1
(50%)
7-2
(77.8%)
16-6
(72.7%)
3-2
(60%)
12-2
(85.7%)
31-4
(88.6%)
24-11
(68.6%)
29-9
(76.3%)
30-5
(85.7%)
32-7
(82.1%)
25-3
(89.3%)
6-2
(75%)
6-1
(85.7%)
2-0
(100%)
   224-55
(80.3%)
District of Columbia
Florida  1-2
(33.3%)
138-31
(81.7%)
310-90
(77.5%)
268-64
(80.7%)
52-9
(85.2%)
120-24
(83.3%)
441-108
(80.3%)
409-99
(80.5%)
443-103
(81.1%)
320-81
(79.8%)
58-16
(78.4%)
26-3
(89.7%)
17-9
(65.4%)
5-0
(100%)
1-0
(100%)
   2609-639
(80.3%)
Florida
Georgia  5-2
(71.4%)
83-21
(79.8%)
196-68
(74.2%)
82-19
(81.2%)
20-8
(71.4%)
137-38
(78.3%)
231-69
(77%)
182-57
(76.2%)
233-41
(85%)
206-64
(76.3%)
160-33
(82.9%)
6-0
(100%)
4-0
(100%)
6-0
(100%)
1-1
(50%)
   1552-421
(78.7%)
Georgia
Hawaii    1-0
(100%)
1-0
(100%)
3-3
(50%)
9-5
(64.3%)
28-6
(82.4%)
32-10
(76.2%)
31-7
(81.6%)
30-6
(83.3%)
7-0
(100%)
0-1
(0%)
      142-38
(78.9%)
Hawaii
Idaho   22-5
(81.5%)
56-26
(68.3%)
67-18
(78.8%)
13-6
(68.4%)
51-19
(72.9%)
71-21
(77.2%)
79-14
(84.9%)
79-19
(80.6%)
52-16
(76.5%)
57-20
(74%)
10-5
(66.7%)
1-0
(100%)
     558-169
(76.8%)
Idaho
Illinois  46-17
(73%)
138-38
(78.4%)
201-71
(73.9%)
175-43
(80.3%)
39-10
(79.6%)
173-47
(78.6%)
305-93
(76.6%)
296-68
(81.3%)
297-96
(75.6%)
245-75
(76.6%)
281-84
(77%)
303-93
(76.5%)
104-31
(77%)
3-2
(60%)
0-3
(0%)
   2606-771
(77.2%)
Illinois
Indiana  1-1
(50%)
108-37
(74.5%)
164-53
(75.6%)
151-38
(79.9%)
70-29
(70.7%)
189-50
(79.1%)
218-60
(78.4%)
240-59
(80.3%)
267-52
(83.7%)
219-55
(79.9%)
168-56
(75%)
227-50
(81.9%)
171-40
(81%)
2-0
(100%)
  1-0
(100%)
 2196-580
(79.1%)
Indiana
Iowa   79-20
(79.8%)
203-53
(79.3%)
237-59
(80.1%)
 213-49
(81.3%)
320-73
(81.4%)
253-65
(79.6%)
321-80
(80%)
222-52
(81%)
163-41
(79.9%)
68-11
(86.1%)
1-0
(100%)
1-0
(100%)
    2081-503
(80.5%)
Iowa
Kansas   2-0
(100%)
22-9
(71%)
49-13
(79%)
1-0
(100%)
73-28
(72.3%)
151-50
(75.1%)
49-11
(81.7%)
115-31
(78.8%)
182-46
(79.8%)
145-37
(79.7%)
182-53
(77.4%)
92-28
(76.7%)
21-1
(95.5%)
3-1
(75%)
   1087-308
(77.9%)
Kansas
Kentucky   39-7
(84.8%)
159-48
(76.8%)
109-22
(83.2%)
46-10
(82.1%)
113-25
(81.9%)
207-59
(77.8%)
188-53
(78%)
136-39
(77.7%)
178-42
(80.9%)
203-53
(79.3%)
151-40
(79.1%)
151-42
(78.2%)
2-0
(100%)
    1682-440
(79.3%)
Kentucky
Louisiana13-5
(72.2%)
20-4
(83.3%)
60-17
(77.9%)
128-23
(84.8%)
148-25
(85.5%)
130-39
(76.9%)
29-7
(80.6%)
93-29
(76.2%)
192-40
(82.8%)
210-41
(83.7%)
210-44
(82.7%)
200-50
(80%)
192-35
(84.6%)
127-26
(83%)
6-1
(85.7%)
2-0
(100%)
1-0
(100%)
   1830-397
(82.2%)
Louisiana
Maine    1-0
(100%)
39-6
(86.7%)
11-5
(68.8%)
49-16
(75.4%)
74-21
(77.9%)
45-11
(80.4%)
53-13
(80.3%)
42-14
(75%)
45-15
(75%)
1-0
(100%)
      360-101
(78.1%)
Maine
Maryland   1-0
(100%)
16-7
(69.6%)
94-43
(68.6%)
19-4
(82.6%)
102-30
(77.3%)
159-40
(79.9%)
141-41
(77.5%)
160-47
(77.3%)
165-41
(80.1%)
198-45
(81.5%)
114-23
(83.2%)
49-12
(80.3%)
23-5
(82.1%)
1-0
(100%)
2-1
(66.7%)
  1244-339
(78.6%)
Maryland
Massachusetts     16-4
(80%)
45-14
(76.3%)
146-44
(76.8%)
223-56
(79.9%)
221-55
(80.1%)
218-63
(77.6%)
239-43
(84.8%)
233-50
(82.3%)
222-53
(80.7%)
66-18
(78.6%)
2-0
(100%)
0-2
(0%)
   1631-402
(80.2%)
Massachusetts
Michigan    44-23
(65.7%)
281-116
(70.8%)
51-13
(79.7%)
174-56
(75.7%)
418-117
(78.1%)
341-103
(76.8%)
390-133
(74.6%)
346-83
(80.7%)
391-125
(75.8%)
390-98
(79.9%)
349-86
(80.2%)
37-11
(77.1%)
4-2
(66.7%)
1-0
(100%)
  3217-966
(76.9%)
Michigan
Minnesota    1-0
(100%)
99-36
(73.3%)
61-11
(84.7%)
146-34
(81.1%)
270-86
(75.8%)
290-80
(78.4%)
272-82
(76.8%)
254-78
(76.5%)
257-64
(80.1%)
282-71
(79.9%)
278-53
(84%)
224-63
(78%)
139-40
(77.7%)
71-11
(86.6%)
5-10
(33.3%)
 2649-719
(78.7%)
Minnesota
Mississippi11-2
(84.6%)
6-4
(60%)
33-9
(78.6%)
61-18
(77.2%)
97-36
(72.9%)
60-10
(85.7%)
10-3
(76.9%)
51-13
(79.7%)
126-28
(81.8%)
134-33
(80.2%)
96-24
(80%)
130-25
(83.9%)
93-17
(84.5%)
3-1
(75%)
2-2
(50%)
 2-1
(66.7%)
   917-226
(80.2%)
Mississippi
Missouri2-0
(100%)
1-0
(100%)
2-0
(100%)
8-3
(72.7%)
79-25
(76%)
126-32
(79.7%)
39-7
(84.8%)
122-36
(77.2%)
223-52
(81.1%)
237-58
(80.3%)
175-46
(79.2%)
211-58
(78.4%)
264-48
(84.6%)
222-65
(77.4%)
130-37
(77.8%)
106-21
(83.5%)
24-5
(82.8%)
2-4
(33.3%)
  1973-497
(79.9%)
Missouri
Montana    2-3
(40%)
52-15
(77.6%)
 53-18
(74.6%)
71-11
(86.6%)
69-13
(84.1%)
65-13
(83.3%)
62-16
(79.5%)
66-12
(84.6%)
20-3
(87%)
12-5
(70.6%)
1-0
(100%)
    473-109
(81.3%)
Montana
Nebraska   8-2
(80%)
80-15
(84.2%)
67-21
(76.1%)
14-3
(82.4%)
161-42
(79.3%)
222-56
(79.9%)
180-55
(76.6%)
144-30
(82.8%)
116-35
(76.8%)
203-35
(85.3%)
137-41
(77%)
5-2
(71.4%)
2-0
(100%)
0-1
(0%)
   1339-338
(79.8%)
Nebraska
Nevada   19-13
(59.4%)
61-7
(89.7%)
51-11
(82.3%)
25-2
(92.6%)
42-6
(87.5%)
84-17
(83.2%)
61-17
(78.2%)
73-24
(75.3%)
79-19
(80.6%)
80-23
(77.7%)
0-1
(0%)
1-0
(100%)
     576-140
(80.4%)
Nevada
New Hampshire     4-4
(50%)
1-0
(100%)
21-7
(75%)
50-21
(70.4%)
50-15
(76.9%)
51-17
(75%)
43-10
(81.1%)
54-14
(79.4%)
57-11
(83.8%)
45-9
(83.3%)
26-9
(74.3%)
1-0
(100%)
0-1
(0%)
  403-118
(77.4%)
New Hampshire
New Jersey    1-0
(100%)
16-3
(84.2%)
38-10
(79.2%)
136-48
(73.9%)
295-87
(77.2%)
266-67
(79.9%)
329-86
(79.3%)
329-80
(80.4%)
287-84
(77.4%)
181-50
(78.4%)
144-32
(81.8%)
25-8
(75.8%)
4-1
(80%)
   2051-556
(78.7%)
New Jersey
New Mexico   6-3
(66.7%)
33-7
(82.5%)
61-11
(84.7%)
7-2
(77.8%)
32-14
(69.6%)
75-23
(76.5%)
100-19
(84%)
111-20
(84.7%)
94-24
(79.7%)
111-15
(88.1%)
104-16
(86.7%)
85-20
(81%)
 1-0
(100%)
   820-174
(82.5%)
New Mexico
New York   46-13
(78%)
197-62
(76.1%)
304-93
(76.6%)
70-24
(74.5%)
225-66
(77.3%)
477-135
(77.9%)
495-147
(77.1%)
198-63
(75.9%)
417-116
(78.2%)
454-112
(80.2%)
145-37
(79.7%)
42-9
(82.4%)
14-7
(66.7%)
2-1
(66.7%)
0-2
(0%)
 1-1
(50%)
3087-888
(77.7%)
New York
North Carolina  2-2
(50%)
55-14
(79.7%)
142-38
(78.9%)
123-39
(75.9%)
23-9
(71.9%)
134-37
(78.4%)
236-85
(73.5%)
176-42
(80.7%)
207-69
(75%)
239-63
(79.1%)
219-59
(78.8%)
181-46
(79.7%)
10-2
(83.3%)
10-2
(83.3%)
3-0
(100%)
   1760-507
(77.6%)
North Carolina
North Dakota    1-0
(100%)
22-8
(73.3%)
14-5
(73.7%)
46-15
(75.4%)
73-17
(81.1%)
88-29
(75.2%)
74-22
(77.1%)
91-21
(81.3%)
71-16
(81.6%)
82-24
(77.4%)
16-4
(80%)
0-1
(0%)
1-0
(100%)
   579-162
(78.1%)
North Dakota
Ohio   92-25
(78.6%)
288-72
(80%)
378-128
(74.7%)
217-80
(73.1%)
302-101
(74.9%)
493-136
(78.4%)
499-111
(81.8%)
484-119
(80.3%)
467-115
(80.2%)
444-103
(81.2%)
131-38
(77.5%)
25-8
(75.8%)
6-0
(100%)
1-0
(100%)
   3827-1036
(78.7%)
Ohio
Oklahoma0-1
(0%)
3-1
(75%)
7-2
(77.8%)
10-1
(90.9%)
67-18
(78.8%)
59-20
(74.7%)
2-0
(100%)
77-22
(77.8%)
113-29
(79.6%)
175-44
(79.9%)
66-16
(80.5%)
158-39
(80.2%)
127-36
(77.9%)
80-16
(83.3%)
5-2
(71.4%)
2-1
(66.7%)
 0-1
(0%)
  951-249
(79.3%)
Oklahoma
Oregon   6-2
(75%)
58-42
(58%)
76-31
(71%)
14-5
(73.7%)
58-17
(77.3%)
115-34
(77.2%)
145-44
(76.7%)
136-23
(85.5%)
111-19
(85.4%)
99-19
(83.9%)
101-21
(82.8%)
73-23
(76%)
34-6
(85%)
    1026-286
(78.2%)
Oregon
Pennsylvania   67-16
(80.7%)
343-106
(76.4%)
441-128
(77.5%)
74-31
(70.5%)
335-82
(80.3%)
566-145
(79.6%)
533-139
(79.3%)
581-156
(78.8%)
481-120
(80%)
277-68
(80.3%)
27-0
(100%)
17-4
(81%)
12-2
(85.7%)
4-0
(100%)
2-0
(100%)
  3760-997
(79%)
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island     9-3
(75%)
10-1
(90.9%)
21-2
(91.3%)
22-5
(81.5%)
15-10
(60%)
19-8
(70.4%)
16-6
(72.7%)
15-10
(60%)
17-4
(81%)
16-5
(76.2%)
3-0
(100%)
    163-54
(75.1%)
Rhode Island
South Carolina   17-16
(51.5%)
88-37
(70.4%)
72-22
(76.6%)
10-5
(66.7%)
96-25
(79.3%)
136-53
(72%)
149-43
(77.6%)
149-40
(78.8%)
153-47
(76.5%)
140-34
(80.5%)
8-1
(88.9%)
2-2
(50%)
1-2
(33.3%)
    1021-327
(75.7%)
South Carolina
South Dakota    1-0
(100%)
47-12
(79.7%)
26-14
(65%)
71-17
(80.7%)
98-24
(80.3%)
114-25
(82%)
113-31
(78.5%)
120-37
(76.4%)
119-32
(78.8%)
119-30
(79.9%)
61-10
(85.9%)
5-0
(100%)
    894-232
(79.4%)
South Dakota
Tennessee 7-1
(87.5%)
43-10
(81.1%)
158-48
(76.7%)
272-75
(78.4%)
165-45
(78.6%)
27-17
(61.4%)
139-38
(78.5%)
317-70
(81.9%)
315-64
(83.1%)
274-64
(81.1%)
303-74
(80.4%)
241-69
(77.7%)
63-15
(80.8%)
10-2
(83.3%)
2-0
(100%)
5-1
(83.3%)
2-0
(100%)
  2343-593
(79.8%)
Tennessee
Texas1-0
(100%)
35-12
(74.5%)
105-33
(76.1%)
217-54
(80.1%)
368-104
(78%)
330-102
(76.4%)
100-28
(78.1%)
357-106
(77.1%)
571-137
(80.6%)
575-147
(79.6%)
617-155
(79.9%)
619-124
(83.3%)
599-104
(85.2%)
244-53
(82.2%)
30-16
(65.2%)
20-4
(83.3%)
1-0
(100%)
0-1
(0%)
  4789-1180
(80.2%)
Texas
Utah   12-5
(70.6%)
58-15
(79.5%)
51-23
(68.9%)
20-8
(71.4%)
44-14
(75.9%)
68-17
(80%)
62-28
(68.9%)
64-21
(75.3%)
71-16
(81.6%)
72-18
(80%)
39-18
(68.4%)
28-11
(71.8%)
2-1
(66.7%)
    591-195
(75.2%)
Utah
Vermont    4-0
(100%)
24-7
(77.4%)
11-2
(84.6%)
21-7
(75%)
25-11
(69.4%)
21-3
(87.5%)
33-5
(86.8%)
19-5
(79.2%)
26-6
(81.3%)
10-3
(76.9%)
1-0
(100%)
     195-49
(79.9%)
Vermont
Virginia   7-2
(77.8%)
71-29
(71%)
121-46
(72.5%)
30-8
(78.9%)
132-38
(77.6%)
235-66
(78.1%)
205-67
(75.4%)
185-49
(79.1%)
238-44
(84.4%)
217-68
(76.1%)
139-40
(77.7%)
10-0
(100%)
6-0
(100%)
1-0
(100%)
1-0
(100%)
  1598-457
(77.8%)
Virginia
Washington   8-2
(80%)
55-17
(76.4%)
77-22
(77.8%)
43-22
(66.2%)
85-13
(86.7%)
129-42
(75.4%)
117-33
(78%)
131-36
(78.4%)
113-30
(79%)
110-27
(80.3%)
29-7
(80.6%)
0-2
(0%)
0-1
(0%)
    897-254
(77.9%)
Washington
West Virginia    1-0
(100%)
20-6
(76.9%)
8-9
(47.1%)
62-15
(80.5%)
105-32
(76.6%)
102-35
(74.5%)
100-23
(81.3%)
113-26
(81.3%)
106-19
(84.8%)
73-20
(78.5%)
74-12
(86%)
8-0
(100%)
 2-0
(100%)
  774-197
(79.7%)
West Virginia
Wisconsin   97-24
(80.2%)
231-78
(74.8%)
281-76
(78.7%)
52-8
(86.7%)
183-58
(75.9%)
317-102
(75.7%)
299-89
(77.1%)
318-84
(79.1%)
231-63
(78.6%)
321-90
(78.1%)
281-62
(81.9%)
7-0
(100%)
1-1
(50%)
1-0
(100%)
   2620-735
(78.1%)
Wisconsin
Wyoming   14-3
(82.4%)
33-6
(84.6%)
17-3
(85%)
2-0
(100%)
42-15
(73.7%)
49-11
(81.7%)
43-11
(79.6%)
54-12
(81.8%)
47-10
(82.5%)
49-9
(84.5%)
47-14
(77%)
17-7
(70.8%)
     414-101
(80.4%)
Wyoming
Prep Schools    3-1
(75%)
8-2
(80%)
2-1
(66.7%)
15-3
(83.3%)
51-19
(72.9%)
52-18
(74.3%)
39-14
(73.6%)
49-15
(76.6%)
47-11
(81%)
26-11
(70.3%)
16-8
(66.7%)
4-0
(100%)
    312-103
(75.2%)
Prep Schools
 
NATIONAL35-9
(79.5%)
79-23
(77.5%)
334-105
(76.1%)
1949-553
(77.9%)
4988-1521
(76.6%)
5662-1657
(77.4%)
1725-536
(76.3%)
5605-1532
(78.5%)
10462-2776
(79%)
10146-2594
(79.6%)
9867-2523
(79.6%)
9893-2430
(80.3%)
9102-2171
(80.7%)
5703-1406
(80.2%)
2826-714
(79.8%)
745-192
(79.5%)
298-79
(79%)
88-24
(78.6%)
7-10
(41.2%)
1-1
(50%)
79595-20870
(79.2%)
NATIONAL


Note: By comparison, blindly picking the team with the better record (and the home team in case of equal records), would have yielded the following percentage for the season:  71.3%
(In other words, anything up around 75-80% is pretty good, but it's important to understand that it's easy to pick 70% in regular-season high school basketball, due to the large number of mismatched games.)