2006 PROJECTION ACCURACY BREAKDOWN      2005 data


State10/2010/2711/311/1011/1711/2412/112/812/1512/22TOTALS
Alabama180-34
(84.1%)		179-34
(84%)		155-43
(78.3%)		85-17
(83.3%)		32-19
(62.7%)		19-5
(79.2%)		8-4
(66.7%)		3-3
(50%)		  1006-247
(80.3%)
Alaska0-1
(0%)		         9-1
(90%)
Arizona75-12
(86.2%)		69-20
(77.5%)		61-11
(84.7%)		32-8
(80%)		16-4
(80%)		6-0
(100%)		5-1
(83.3%)		0-2
(0%)		  409-87
(82.5%)
Arkansas82-16
(83.7%)		85-15
(85%)		78-18
(81.3%)		36-12
(75%)		25-7
(78.1%)		13-3
(81.3%)		5-2
(71.4%)		1-2
(33.3%)		  492-106
(82.3%)
California412-83
(83.2%)		401-79
(83.5%)		399-88
(81.9%)		359-89
(80.1%)		191-47
(80.3%)		96-38
(71.6%)		46-16
(74.2%)		21-3
(87.5%)		2-1
(66.7%)		 2679-635
(80.8%)
Colorado91-12
(88.3%)		83-18
(82.2%)		61-17
(78.2%)		28-4
(87.5%)		11-5
(68.8%)		6-1
(85.7%)		2-1
(66.7%)		   450-98
(82.1%)
Connecticut57-7
(89.1%)		50-10
(83.3%)		65-8
(89%)		58-8
(87.9%)		9-4
(69.2%)		42-17
(71.2%)		13-4
(76.5%)		   386-86
(81.8%)
Delaware18-4
(81.8%)		16-3
(84.2%)		17-4
(81%)		14-5
(73.7%)		3-1
(75%)		3-1
(75%)		1-1
(50%)		   110-23
(82.7%)
District of Columbia14-2
(87.5%)		13-2
(86.7%)		11-3
(78.6%)		8-1
(88.9%)		3-0
(100%)		0-1
(0%)		    68-15
(81.9%)
Florida177-48
(78.7%)		196-42
(82.4%)		167-46
(78.4%)		76-20
(79.2%)		34-14
(70.8%)		21-3
(87.5%)		10-2
(83.3%)		2-2
(50%)		  1033-261
(79.8%)
Georgia167-28
(85.6%)		162-31
(83.9%)		166-29
(85.1%)		144-25
(85.2%)		73-17
(81.1%)		32-14
(69.6%)		15-8
(65.2%)		7-3
(70%)		3-0
(100%)		 1080-210
(83.7%)
Hawaii12-2
(85.7%)		15-3
(83.3%)		8-2
(80%)		5-1
(83.3%)		2-2
(50%)		3-1
(75%)		0-2
(0%)		   81-19
(81%)
Idaho38-5
(88.4%)		28-4
(87.5%)		13-3
(81.3%)		6-2
(75%)		3-1
(75%)		     159-28
(85%)
Illinois223-41
(84.5%)		102-27
(79.1%)		56-16
(77.8%)		28-9
(75.7%)		14-5
(73.7%)		7-2
(77.8%)		    886-181
(83%)
Indiana125-30
(80.6%)		63-18
(77.8%)		32-9
(78%)		17-4
(81%)		8-2
(80%)		4-1
(80%)		    515-118
(81.4%)
Iowa132-20
(86.8%)		133-20
(86.9%)		29-10
(74.4%)		16-10
(61.5%)		7-2
(77.8%)		     573-112
(83.6%)
Kansas102-18
(85%)		101-17
(85.6%)		67-17
(79.8%)		16-3
(84.2%)		9-1
(90%)		5-0
(100%)		    503-91
(84.7%)
Kentucky89-13
(87.3%)		87-17
(83.7%)		56-8
(87.5%)		22-10
(68.8%)		13-3
(81.3%)		7-1
(87.5%)		3-1
(75%)		   450-79
(85.1%)
Louisiana115-20
(85.2%)		116-19
(85.9%)		112-23
(83%)		66-14
(82.5%)		33-7
(82.5%)		16-4
(80%)		8-2
(80%)		5-0
(100%)		  694-135
(83.7%)
Maine29-2
(93.5%)		23-3
(88.5%)		13-2
(86.7%)		5-1
(83.3%)		2-1
(66.7%)		1-0
(100%)		    130-18
(87.8%)
Maryland87-19
(82.1%)		81-13
(86.2%)		96-15
(86.5%)		78-18
(81.3%)		23-9
(71.9%)		12-5
(70.6%)		6-2
(75%)		2-2
(50%)		  558-115
(82.9%)
Massachusetts107-29
(78.7%)		100-32
(75.8%)		123-27
(82%)		118-24
(83.1%)		8-3
(72.7%)		102-26
(79.7%)		25-4
(86.2%)		   805-199
(80.2%)
Michigan222-57
(79.6%)		105-22
(82.7%)		40-24
(62.5%)		20-12
(62.5%)		12-4
(75%)		8-0
(100%)		    892-231
(79.4%)
Minnesota124-21
(85.5%)		167-49
(77.3%)		27-13
(67.5%)		14-6
(70%)		8-2
(80%)		5-0
(100%)		    588-162
(78.4%)
Mississippi127-20
(86.4%)		122-24
(83.6%)		90-24
(78.9%)		47-13
(78.3%)		22-8
(73.3%)		9-5
(64.3%)		3-3
(50%)		   657-142
(82.2%)
Missouri135-25
(84.4%)		132-27
(83%)		132-30
(81.5%)		30-10
(75%)		21-7
(75%)		5-1
(83.3%)		    713-150
(82.6%)
Montana32-6
(84.2%)		14-4
(77.8%)		11-1
(91.7%)		3-3
(50%)		2-1
(66.7%)		     129-24
(84.3%)
Nebraska63-11
(85.1%)		46-10
(82.1%)		23-4
(85.2%)		13-7
(65%)		2-2
(50%)		     269-60
(81.8%)
Nevada25-8
(75.8%)		22-10
(68.8%)		17-5
(77.3%)		4-8
(33.3%)		4-2
(66.7%)		1-1
(50%)		1-0
(100%)		   134-42
(76.1%)
New Hampshire17-8
(68%)		19-5
(79.2%)		12-8
(60%)		6-2
(75%)		3-0
(100%)		3-0
(100%)		    100-34
(74.6%)
New Jersey123-31
(79.9%)		124-29
(81%)		136-26
(84%)		123-36
(77.4%)		36-11
(76.6%)		84-27
(75.7%)		12-7
(63.2%)		   893-229
(79.6%)
New Mexico36-6
(85.7%)		36-3
(92.3%)		27-8
(77.1%)		9-5
(64.3%)		12-3
(80%)		5-4
(55.6%)		4-0
(100%)		1-0
(100%)		  194-41
(82.6%)
New York204-59
(77.6%)		213-70
(75.3%)		118-29
(80.3%)		49-18
(73.1%)		23-12
(65.7%)		10-7
(58.8%)		1-0
(100%)		   1100-311
(78%)
North Carolina143-22
(86.7%)		78-16
(83%)		197-45
(81.4%)		110-19
(85.3%)		41-24
(63.1%)		24-8
(75%)		13-3
(81.3%)		7-1
(87.5%)		  871-213
(80.4%)
North Dakota19-3
(86.4%)		12-2
(85.7%)		4-2
(66.7%)		1-2
(33.3%)		      80-24
(76.9%)
Ohio297-64
(82.3%)		286-72
(79.9%)		80-17
(82.5%)		34-14
(70.8%)		17-7
(70.8%)		10-2
(83.3%)		5-1
(83.3%)		   1325-306
(81.2%)
Oklahoma111-18
(86%)		103-26
(79.8%)		108-22
(83.1%)		53-10
(84.1%)		23-9
(71.9%)		11-5
(68.8%)		 8-1
(88.9%)		1-0
(100%)		 630-136
(82.2%)
Oregon88-8
(91.7%)		81-14
(85.3%)		81-14
(85.3%)		23-13
(63.9%)		23-9
(71.9%)		13-3
(81.3%)		5-3
(62.5%)		2-1
(66.7%)		  478-92
(83.9%)
Pennsylvania250-49
(83.6%)		244-54
(81.9%)		201-42
(82.7%)		110-28
(79.7%)		46-16
(74.2%)		37-16
(69.8%)		12-5
(70.6%)		5-3
(62.5%)		2-2
(50%)		 1386-334
(80.6%)
Rhode Island15-5
(75%)		15-3
(83.3%)		20-2
(90.9%)		14-2
(87.5%)		1-0
(100%)		14-7
(66.7%)		7-5
(58.3%)		   111-36
(75.5%)
South Carolina88-20
(81.5%)		85-13
(86.7%)		77-14
(84.6%)		35-11
(76.1%)		13-10
(56.5%)		8-2
(80%)		4-0
(100%)		   492-105
(82.4%)
South Dakota27-3
(90%)		15-8
(65.2%)		14-4
(77.8%)		2-1
(66.7%)		      112-27
(80.6%)
Tennessee124-28
(81.6%)		132-24
(84.6%)		65-18
(78.3%)		34-11
(75.6%)		20-3
(87%)		9-1
(90%)		4-1
(80%)		   633-135
(82.4%)
Texas407-94
(81.2%)		399-116
(77.5%)		420-89
(82.5%)		410-85
(82.8%)		207-46
(81.8%)		100-40
(71.4%)		53-17
(75.7%)		24-10
(70.6%)		12-4
(75%)		4-2
(66.7%)		2778-680
(80.3%)
Utah30-7
(81.1%)		28-4
(87.5%)		10-6
(62.5%)		7-1
(87.5%)		2-1
(66.7%)		     145-39
(78.8%)
Vermont11-4
(73.3%)		13-2
(86.7%)		6-1
(85.7%)		3-1
(75%)		      58-14
(80.6%)
Virginia140-27
(83.8%)		104-21
(83.2%)		166-39
(81%)		114-24
(82.6%)		41-10
(80.4%)		15-9
(62.5%)		7-5
(58.3%)		4-2
(66.7%)		  838-207
(80.2%)
Washington130-12
(91.5%)		116-14
(89.2%)		52-17
(75.4%)		31-13
(70.5%)		16-4
(80%)		6-4
(60%)		2-3
(40%)		   587-114
(83.7%)
West Virginia42-15
(73.7%)		44-12
(78.6%)		41-9
(82%)		22-3
(88%)		9-4
(69.2%)		6-1
(85.7%)		3-1
(75%)		0-1
(0%)		  257-71
(78.4%)
Wisconsin180-36
(83.3%)		129-43
(75%)		18-11
(62.1%)		10-5
(66.7%)		5-2
(71.4%)		     693-177
(79.7%)
Wyoming25-3
(89.3%)		12-8
(60%)		7-3
(70%)		3-2
(60%)		      94-27
(77.7%)
Prep Schools32-12
(72.7%)		36-1
(97.3%)		34-12
(73.9%)		35-2
(94.6%)		3-1
(75%)		     179-40
(81.7%)
 
NATIONAL5562-1119
(83.3%)		5001-1126
(81.6%)		3996-933
(81.1%)		2580-650
(79.9%)		1130-352
(76.2%)		774-266
(74.4%)		282-104
(73.1%)		92-35
(72.4%)		20-7
(74.1%)		4-2
(66.7%)		30288-7025
(81.2%)


Note: By comparison, blindly picking the team with the better record (and the home team in case of equal records), would have yielded the following percentage for the part of the season we pick:  66.6%
(In other words, anything up around 75-80% is pretty good, but it's important to understand that it's easy to pick 70% in regular-season high school football, due to the large number of mismatched games.)

out-of-state: 83.1% (in 432 games)