PROJECTION ACCURACY BREAKDOWN      2005-2006 data


State11/1311/2011/2712/412/1112/1812/251/11/81/151/221/292/52/122/192/263/53/123/19TOTALSState
Alabama 1-0
(100%)
6-5
(54.5%)
21-4
(84%)
47-13
(78.3%)
31-4
(88.6%)
14-1
(93.3%)
81-22
(78.6%)
117-26
(81.8%)
124-36
(77.5%)
134-32
(80.7%)
125-41
(75.3%)
43-11
(79.6%)
14-4
(77.8%)
10-1
(90.9%)
3-1
(75%)
   771-201
(79.3%)
Alabama
Alaska      2-0
(100%)
 8-2
(80%)
12-3
(80%)
13-3
(81.3%)
14-8
(63.6%)
21-5
(80.8%)
18-1
(94.7%)
18-4
(81.8%)
14-5
(73.7%)
0-2
(0%)
  120-33
(78.4%)
Alaska
Arizona  14-8
(63.6%)
60-32
(65.2%)
129-41
(75.9%)
38-22
(63.3%)
44-11
(80%)
75-24
(75.8%)
183-55
(76.9%)
218-34
(86.5%)
210-51
(80.5%)
176-45
(79.6%)
62-15
(80.5%)
10-4
(71.4%)
5-3
(62.5%)
0-1
(0%)
   1224-346
(78%)
Arizona
Arkansas7-4
(63.6%)
7-3
(70%)
14-6
(70%)
7-6
(53.8%)
59-21
(73.8%)
29-8
(78.4%)
7-5
(58.3%)
99-27
(78.6%)
153-32
(82.7%)
175-31
(85%)
155-51
(75.2%)
130-42
(75.6%)
151-43
(77.8%)
64-17
(79%)
29-6
(82.9%)
1-1
(50%)
   1093-305
(78.2%)
Arkansas
California   17-8
(68%)
195-48
(80.2%)
406-128
(76%)
367-100
(78.6%)
599-173
(77.6%)
1017-229
(81.6%)
997-230
(81.3%)
997-232
(81.1%)
1017-231
(81.5%)
981-215
(82%)
612-126
(82.9%)
329-82
(80%)
90-31
(74.4%)
61-11
(84.7%)
7-3
(70%)
5-0
(100%)
7697-1847
(80.6%)
California
Colorado   2-1
(66.7%)
67-28
(70.5%)
33-3
(91.7%)
 81-18
(81.8%)
171-67
(71.8%)
201-67
(75%)
236-53
(81.7%)
247-52
(82.6%)
228-47
(82.9%)
190-32
(85.6%)
18-2
(90%)
6-0
(100%)
2-0
(100%)
  1482-370
(80%)
Colorado
Connecticut     6-2
(75%)
53-10
(84.1%)
99-31
(76.2%)
129-34
(79.1%)
126-25
(83.4%)
129-31
(80.6%)
130-31
(80.7%)
134-26
(83.8%)
134-27
(83.2%)
117-16
(88%)
2-1
(66.7%)
5-2
(71.4%)
2-0
(100%)
 1066-236
(81.9%)
Connecticut
Delaware     7-8
(46.7%)
2-2
(50%)
20-8
(71.4%)
30-7
(81.1%)
26-6
(81.3%)
28-5
(84.8%)
36-9
(80%)
24-9
(72.7%)
18-3
(85.7%)
1-1
(50%)
    192-58
(76.8%)
Delaware
District of Columbia   0-1
(0%)
2-1
(66.7%)
4-4
(50%)
2-1
(66.7%)
11-9
(55%)
29-11
(72.5%)
41-5
(89.1%)
31-11
(73.8%)
35-8
(81.4%)
35-5
(87.5%)
10-3
(76.9%)
3-2
(60%)
    203-61
(76.9%)
District of Columbia
Florida 0-1
(0%)
18-6
(75%)
125-42
(74.9%)
176-38
(82.2%)
96-27
(78%)
37-19
(66.1%)
177-53
(77%)
371-90
(80.5%)
389-94
(80.5%)
421-81
(83.9%)
276-70
(79.8%)
30-8
(78.9%)
7-4
(63.6%)
21-5
(80.8%)
2-1
(66.7%)
2-0
(100%)
  2148-539
(79.9%)
Florida
Georgia    7-6
(53.8%)
10-6
(62.5%)
12-4
(75%)
121-44
(73.3%)
174-57
(75.3%)
190-73
(72.2%)
182-59
(75.5%)
186-42
(81.6%)
143-42
(77.3%)
1-0
(100%)
5-1
(83.3%)
2-1
(66.7%)
1-0
(100%)
  1034-335
(75.5%)
Georgia
Hawaii     1-0
(100%)
3-1
(75%)
1-1
(50%)
24-4
(85.7%)
42-14
(75%)
42-6
(87.5%)
48-13
(78.7%)
16-4
(80%)
      177-43
(80.5%)
Hawaii
Idaho   9-9
(50%)
49-24
(67.1%)
33-22
(60%)
9-6
(60%)
61-28
(68.5%)
73-25
(74.5%)
74-13
(85.1%)
83-13
(86.5%)
71-23
(75.5%)
56-16
(77.8%)
9-2
(81.8%)
     527-181
(74.4%)
Idaho
Illinois 4-2
(66.7%)
23-10
(69.7%)
60-23
(72.3%)
135-53
(71.8%)
71-24
(74.7%)
17-8
(68%)
150-41
(78.5%)
192-56
(77.4%)
182-51
(78.1%)
225-60
(78.9%)
254-61
(80.6%)
211-55
(79.3%)
136-42
(76.4%)
80-21
(79.2%)
6-1
(85.7%)
1-2
(33.3%)
3-1
(75%)
 1750-511
(77.4%)
Illinois
Indiana   90-35
(72%)
189-70
(73%)
80-27
(74.8%)
46-12
(79.3%)
183-55
(76.9%)
198-53
(78.9%)
237-54
(81.4%)
245-64
(79.3%)
235-71
(76.8%)
173-42
(80.5%)
171-54
(76%)
211-52
(80.2%)
6-1
(85.7%)
2-1
(66.7%)
2-0
(100%)
 2068-591
(77.8%)
Indiana
Iowa   4-2
(66.7%)
179-60
(74.9%)
164-50
(76.6%)
 164-43
(79.2%)
242-53
(82%)
239-55
(81.3%)
258-63
(80.4%)
250-59
(80.9%)
222-63
(77.9%)
131-23
(85.1%)
46-11
(80.7%)
1-0
(100%)
   1900-482
(79.8%)
Iowa
Kansas   1-0
(100%)
43-16
(72.9%)
30-14
(68.2%)
1-0
(100%)
81-22
(78.6%)
90-31
(74.4%)
19-5
(79.2%)
101-21
(82.8%)
142-44
(76.3%)
156-41
(79.2%)
120-28
(81.1%)
105-34
(75.5%)
6-4
(60%)
   895-260
(77.5%)
Kansas
Kentucky   6-5
(54.5%)
107-33
(76.4%)
64-17
(79%)
18-8
(69.2%)
164-45
(78.5%)
182-40
(82%)
182-45
(80.2%)
114-40
(74%)
168-36
(82.4%)
148-42
(77.9%)
185-37
(83.3%)
192-43
(81.7%)
2-0
(100%)
1-0
(100%)
  1533-391
(79.7%)
Kentucky
Louisiana13-4
(76.5%)
28-2
(93.3%)
15-5
(75%)
38-4
(90.5%)
125-31
(80.1%)
98-34
(74.2%)
25-7
(78.1%)
130-35
(78.8%)
180-38
(82.6%)
186-42
(81.6%)
202-38
(84.2%)
191-47
(80.3%)
182-46
(79.8%)
105-25
(80.8%)
  1-0
(100%)
2-0
(100%)
 1546-364
(80.9%)
Louisiana
Maine    3-1
(75%)
26-7
(78.8%)
3-0
(100%)
42-15
(73.7%)
65-23
(73.9%)
54-16
(77.1%)
94-22
(81%)
92-22
(80.7%)
89-19
(82.4%)
 2-0
(100%)
1-0
(100%)
   471-125
(79%)
Maine
Maryland    12-5
(70.6%)
57-16
(78.1%)
16-1
(94.1%)
128-39
(76.6%)
134-43
(75.7%)
130-35
(78.8%)
154-46
(77%)
146-48
(75.3%)
139-41
(77.2%)
59-9
(86.8%)
21-11
(65.6%)
2-1
(66.7%)
   998-295
(77.2%)
Maryland
Massachusetts     19-7
(73.1%)
64-11
(85.3%)
158-43
(78.6%)
206-66
(75.7%)
196-49
(80%)
217-53
(80.4%)
221-57
(79.5%)
197-58
(77.3%)
193-40
(82.8%)
61-13
(82.4%)
5-0
(100%)
1-1
(50%)
2-0
(100%)
 1540-398
(79.5%)
Massachusetts
Michigan    27-5
(84.4%)
145-54
(72.9%)
52-23
(69.3%)
161-77
(67.6%)
344-127
(73%)
358-118
(75.2%)
382-105
(78.4%)
381-102
(78.9%)
319-94
(77.2%)
372-89
(80.7%)
359-103
(77.7%)
316-79
(80%)
20-6
(76.9%)
3-3
(50%)
2-2
(50%)
3241-987
(76.7%)
Michigan
Minnesota    58-25
(69.9%)
137-38
(78.3%)
60-15
(80%)
175-41
(81%)
238-74
(76.3%)
254-62
(80.4%)
259-54
(82.7%)
250-54
(82.2%)
248-47
(84.1%)
235-51
(82.2%)
209-56
(78.9%)
106-23
(82.2%)
45-6
(88.2%)
29-7
(80.6%)
6-5
(54.5%)
2309-558
(80.5%)
Minnesota
Mississippi13-3
(81.3%)
12-5
(70.6%)
39-18
(68.4%)
53-11
(82.8%)
101-30
(77.1%)
39-15
(72.2%)
16-0
(100%)
79-20
(79.8%)
130-28
(82.3%)
139-39
(78.1%)
146-29
(83.4%)
123-38
(76.4%)
111-36
(75.5%)
6-1
(85.7%)
3-0
(100%)
2-0
(100%)
2-0
(100%)
  1016-274
(78.8%)
Mississippi
Missouri   9-7
(56.3%)
100-41
(70.9%)
104-36
(74.3%)
90-13
(87.4%)
166-60
(73.5%)
179-46
(79.6%)
192-57
(77.1%)
215-60
(78.2%)
328-87
(79%)
362-60
(85.8%)
271-61
(81.6%)
240-49
(83%)
51-7
(87.9%)
15-1
(93.8%)
5-1
(83.3%)
 2327-586
(79.9%)
Missouri
Montana    14-6
(70%)
51-20
(71.8%)
 84-28
(75%)
89-30
(74.8%)
91-19
(82.7%)
101-16
(86.3%)
82-37
(68.9%)
66-13
(83.5%)
16-2
(88.9%)
5-3
(62.5%)
4-1
(80%)
0-1
(0%)
  603-176
(77.4%)
Montana
Nebraska   5-2
(71.4%)
136-44
(75.6%)
43-11
(79.6%)
5-5
(50%)
165-40
(80.5%)
216-39
(84.7%)
170-46
(78.7%)
136-36
(79.1%)
95-29
(76.6%)
213-61
(77.7%)
130-33
(79.8%)
3-2
(60%)
1-0
(100%)
1-0
(100%)
  1319-348
(79.1%)
Nebraska
Nevada   3-5
(37.5%)
24-11
(68.6%)
23-7
(76.7%)
24-6
(80%)
72-20
(78.3%)
77-21
(78.6%)
61-13
(82.4%)
91-23
(79.8%)
88-16
(84.6%)
79-13
(85.9%)
3-0
(100%)
2-1
(66.7%)
    547-136
(80.1%)
Nevada
New Hampshire     10-2
(83.3%)
6-2
(75%)
30-15
(66.7%)
72-17
(80.9%)
51-18
(73.9%)
64-17
(79%)
68-17
(80%)
65-15
(81.3%)
63-16
(79.7%)
54-19
(74%)
20-1
(95.2%)
2-0
(100%)
  505-139
(78.4%)
New Hampshire
New Jersey    1-0
(100%)
33-12
(73.3%)
39-17
(69.6%)
241-76
(76%)
327-96
(77.3%)
342-87
(79.7%)
319-86
(78.8%)
320-88
(78.4%)
281-77
(78.5%)
162-44
(78.6%)
151-35
(81.2%)
13-6
(68.4%)
3-2
(60%)
  2232-626
(78.1%)
New Jersey
New Mexico   4-0
(100%)
6-3
(66.7%)
3-0
(100%)
6-1
(85.7%)
7-1
(87.5%)
4-3
(57.1%)
4-2
(66.7%)
3-0
(100%)
  79-25
(76%)
2-0
(100%)
2-0
(100%)
1-0
(100%)
  121-35
(77.6%)
New Mexico
New York   25-14
(64.1%)
166-55
(75.1%)
327-88
(78.8%)
78-29
(72.9%)
414-126
(76.7%)
560-172
(76.5%)
561-134
(80.7%)
257-74
(77.6%)
562-129
(81.3%)
510-111
(82.1%)
147-45
(76.6%)
42-8
(84%)
20-7
(74.1%)
8-3
(72.7%)
1-1
(50%)
2-0
(100%)
3680-996
(78.7%)
New York
North Carolina  10-5
(66.7%)
41-12
(77.4%)
70-24
(74.5%)
78-24
(76.5%)
12-5
(70.6%)
160-41
(79.6%)
212-47
(81.9%)
147-49
(75%)
211-54
(79.6%)
218-58
(79%)
204-46
(81.6%)
20-4
(83.3%)
6-2
(75%)
1-0
(100%)
   1390-371
(78.9%)
North Carolina
North Dakota    0-1
(0%)
14-8
(63.6%)
6-4
(60%)
47-16
(74.6%)
71-13
(84.5%)
83-20
(80.6%)
68-21
(76.4%)
68-17
(80%)
69-17
(80.2%)
77-17
(81.9%)
9-6
(60%)
1-0
(100%)
1-0
(100%)
  514-140
(78.6%)
North Dakota
Ohio    53-39
(57.6%)
169-73
(69.8%)
150-50
(75%)
282-73
(79.4%)
359-91
(79.8%)
338-108
(75.8%)
388-96
(80.2%)
343-104
(76.7%)
295-82
(78.2%)
257-57
(81.8%)
125-35
(78.1%)
16-6
(72.7%)
2-2
(50%)
2-0
(100%)
1-0
(100%)
2780-816
(77.3%)
Ohio
Oklahoma  1-0
(100%)
2-0
(100%)
27-8
(77.1%)
19-9
(67.9%)
1-1
(50%)
54-18
(75%)
36-15
(70.6%)
23-8
(74.2%)
51-6
(89.5%)
95-20
(82.6%)
83-20
(80.6%)
50-21
(70.4%)
5-1
(83.3%)
1-1
(50%)
   448-128
(77.8%)
Oklahoma
Oregon    53-11
(82.8%)
95-37
(72%)
31-8
(79.5%)
170-41
(80.6%)
201-45
(81.7%)
159-32
(83.2%)
211-47
(81.8%)
230-45
(83.6%)
198-54
(78.6%)
100-26
(79.4%)
60-17
(77.9%)
    1508-363
(80.6%)
Oregon
Pennsylvania   10-6
(62.5%)
271-95
(74%)
425-133
(76.2%)
83-24
(77.6%)
468-102
(82.1%)
537-142
(79.1%)
527-131
(80.1%)
536-127
(80.8%)
503-125
(80.1%)
439-116
(79.1%)
104-24
(81.3%)
19-1
(95%)
10-4
(71.4%)
7-2
(77.8%)
3-3
(50%)
2-0
(100%)
3944-1035
(79.2%)
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island    2-0
(100%)
27-9
(75%)
10-0
(100%)
28-13
(68.3%)
35-11
(76.1%)
31-11
(73.8%)
32-12
(72.7%)
40-3
(93%)
37-9
(80.4%)
28-13
(68.3%)
34-11
(75.6%)
0-1
(0%)
   304-93
(76.6%)
Rhode Island
South Carolina  1-0
(100%)
11-7
(61.1%)
46-8
(85.2%)
22-7
(75.9%)
10-5
(66.7%)
52-20
(72.2%)
59-25
(70.2%)
87-21
(80.6%)
91-23
(79.8%)
80-33
(70.8%)
81-24
(77.1%)
4-2
(66.7%)
1-0
(100%)
    545-175
(75.7%)
South Carolina
South Dakota    2-0
(100%)
24-8
(75%)
13-12
(52%)
64-20
(76.2%)
87-20
(81.3%)
103-20
(83.7%)
97-22
(81.5%)
110-19
(85.3%)
112-25
(81.8%)
90-26
(77.6%)
49-11
(81.7%)
0-1
(0%)
   751-184
(80.3%)
South Dakota
Tennessee 1-0
(100%)
74-21
(77.9%)
145-54
(72.9%)
227-68
(76.9%)
110-33
(76.9%)
13-5
(72.2%)
204-50
(80.3%)
318-71
(81.7%)
316-72
(81.4%)
295-81
(78.5%)
251-82
(75.4%)
288-67
(81.1%)
64-23
(73.6%)
4-0
(100%)
  0-1
(0%)
 2310-628
(78.6%)
Tennessee
Texas 8-2
(80%)
11-1
(91.7%)
41-16
(71.9%)
183-62
(74.7%)
154-44
(77.8%)
25-5
(83.3%)
290-78
(78.8%)
314-88
(78.1%)
280-89
(75.9%)
376-89
(80.9%)
376-74
(83.6%)
346-87
(79.9%)
146-45
(76.4%)
11-3
(78.6%)
2-1
(66.7%)
   2563-684
(78.9%)
Texas
Utah   22-5
(81.5%)
73-19
(79.3%)
62-18
(77.5%)
31-6
(83.8%)
63-20
(75.9%)
76-22
(77.6%)
65-29
(69.1%)
70-21
(76.9%)
75-17
(81.5%)
77-21
(78.6%)
42-12
(77.8%)
26-4
(86.7%)
2-0
(100%)
   684-194
(77.9%)
Utah
Vermont    4-1
(80%)
13-8
(61.9%)
11-6
(64.7%)
29-7
(80.6%)
36-12
(75%)
30-4
(88.2%)
34-11
(75.6%)
37-9
(80.4%)
37-15
(71.2%)
36-10
(78.3%)
19-4
(82.6%)
3-0
(100%)
1-0
(100%)
0-1
(0%)
 290-88
(76.7%)
Vermont
Virginia   5-4
(55.6%)
49-20
(71%)
59-27
(68.6%)
22-3
(88%)
179-47
(79.2%)
188-46
(80.3%)
204-57
(78.2%)
160-44
(78.4%)
199-54
(78.7%)
151-49
(75.5%)
21-3
(87.5%)
7-3
(70%)
1-0
(100%)
0-1
(0%)
  1245-358
(77.7%)
Virginia
Washington    4-3
(57.1%)
39-15
(72.2%)
43-20
(68.3%)
115-35
(76.7%)
135-52
(72.2%)
153-38
(80.1%)
209-52
(80.1%)
202-57
(78%)
145-55
(72.5%)
57-22
(72.2%)
2-0
(100%)
1-1
(50%)
   1105-350
(75.9%)
Washington
West Virginia     3-1
(75%)
22-2
(91.7%)
85-25
(77.3%)
98-27
(78.4%)
117-29
(80.1%)
86-22
(79.6%)
94-24
(79.7%)
72-18
(80%)
64-12
(84.2%)
87-21
(80.6%)
3-1
(75%)
2-0
(100%)
1-0
(100%)
 734-182
(80.1%)
West Virginia
Wisconsin   15-2
(88.2%)
142-48
(74.7%)
178-63
(73.9%)
42-19
(68.9%)
245-53
(82.2%)
294-87
(77.2%)
299-80
(78.9%)
292-88
(76.8%)
286-92
(75.7%)
274-75
(78.5%)
302-82
(78.6%)
214-63
(77.3%)
4-0
(100%)
1-0
(100%)
0-1
(0%)
 2588-753
(77.5%)
Wisconsin
Wyoming   1-2
(33.3%)
28-9
(75.7%)
13-4
(76.5%)
0-1
(0%)
45-9
(83.3%)
40-13
(75.5%)
51-14
(78.5%)
51-12
(81%)
46-9
(83.6%)
50-12
(80.6%)
38-11
(77.6%)
19-3
(86.4%)
2-0
(100%)
   384-99
(79.5%)
Wyoming
Prep Schools    1-1
(50%)
2-2
(50%)
1-0
(100%)
9-5
(64.3%)
21-5
(80.8%)
24-7
(77.4%)
38-7
(84.4%)
45-8
(84.9%)
45-11
(80.4%)
16-6
(72.7%)
14-3
(82.4%)
    216-55
(79.7%)
Prep Schools
 
NATIONAL33-11
(75%)
60-15
(80%)
223-83
(72.9%)
817-312
(72.4%)
3332-1102
(75.1%)
3642-1199
(75.2%)
1507-455
(76.8%)
6702-1906
(77.9%)
9193-2481
(78.7%)
9172-2361
(79.5%)
9397-2336
(80.1%)
9647-2467
(79.6%)
8596-2152
(80%)
5128-1251
(80.4%)
3027-755
(80%)
731-188
(79.5%)
188-43
(81.4%)
62-22
(73.8%)
18-7
(72%)
71508-19155
(78.9%)
NATIONAL


Note: By comparison, blindly picking the team with the better record (and the home team in case of equal records), would have yielded the following percentage for the season:  71.2%
(In other words, anything up around 75-80% is pretty good, but it's important to understand that it's easy to pick 70% in regular-season high school basketball, due to the large number of mismatched games.)