2005 PROJECTION ACCURACY BREAKDOWN      2004 data


State10/2110/2811/411/1111/1811/2512/212/912/16TOTALS
Alabama182-31
(85.4%)		171-38
(81.8%)		93-15
(86.1%)		44-10
(81.5%)		20-7
(74.1%)		7-5
(58.3%)		5-1
(83.3%)		  882-170
(83.8%)
Alaska1-0
(100%)		        15-4
(78.9%)
Arizona70-14
(83.3%)		74-9
(89.2%)		61-10
(85.9%)		34-6
(85%)		18-2
(90%)		7-3
(70%)		1-3
(25%)		  394-83
(82.6%)
Arkansas76-19
(80%)		75-19
(79.8%)		74-17
(81.3%)		42-6
(87.5%)		15-9
(62.5%)		8-4
(66.7%)		5-1
(83.3%)		2-0
(100%)		 449-111
(80.2%)
California381-103
(78.7%)		394-88
(81.7%)		389-84
(82.2%)		378-91
(80.6%)		202-34
(85.6%)		100-38
(72.5%)		54-12
(81.8%)		11-10
(52.4%)		2-2
(50%)		2710-668
(80.2%)
Colorado79-19
(80.6%)		70-21
(76.9%)		68-10
(87.2%)		27-5
(84.4%)		10-6
(62.5%)		5-3
(62.5%)		3-0
(100%)		  453-104
(81.3%)
Connecticut73-12
(85.9%)		55-9
(85.9%)		53-11
(82.8%)		57-8
(87.7%)		8-3
(72.7%)		47-11
(81%)		12-6
(66.7%)		  382-79
(82.9%)
Delaware16-3
(84.2%)		17-5
(77.3%)		13-6
(68.4%)		12-6
(66.7%)		3-1
(75%)		0-2
(0%)		2-0
(100%)		  98-32
(75.4%)
District of Columbia12-1
(92.3%)		16-3
(84.2%)		14-2
(87.5%)		7-0
(100%)		1-0
(100%)		1-0
(100%)		   75-13
(85.2%)
Florida162-41
(79.8%)		150-39
(79.4%)		120-23
(83.9%)		78-19
(80.4%)		36-12
(75%)		16-7
(69.6%)		10-2
(83.3%)		4-0
(100%)		 911-229
(79.9%)
Georgia156-35
(81.7%)		149-26
(85.1%)		81-18
(81.8%)		43-8
(84.3%)		18-7
(72%)		9-3
(75%)		3-2
(60%)		  753-180
(80.7%)
Hawaii11-5
(68.8%)		13-4
(76.5%)		10-3
(76.9%)		6-0
(100%)		3-1
(75%)		4-0
(100%)		2-0
(100%)		  84-22
(79.2%)
Idaho35-2
(94.6%)		20-8
(71.4%)		16-0
(100%)		8-0
(100%)		2-2
(50%)		    143-22
(86.7%)
Illinois215-43
(83.3%)		101-27
(78.9%)		42-22
(65.6%)		22-10
(68.8%)		14-4
(77.8%)		7-2
(77.8%)		   890-210
(80.9%)
Indiana126-25
(83.4%)		67-13
(83.8%)		31-9
(77.5%)		14-6
(70%)		5-5
(50%)		3-2
(60%)		   517-110
(82.5%)
Iowa130-27
(82.8%)		126-21
(85.7%)		29-11
(72.5%)		10-4
(71.4%)		7-2
(77.8%)		    569-114
(83.3%)
Kansas104-17
(86%)		103-18
(85.1%)		67-19
(77.9%)		17-3
(85%)		9-1
(90%)		3-2
(60%)		   506-102
(83.2%)
Kentucky83-22
(79%)		91-14
(86.7%)		53-11
(82.8%)		26-6
(81.3%)		13-3
(81.3%)		6-2
(75%)		2-2
(50%)		  451-81
(84.8%)
Louisiana95-23
(80.5%)		107-21
(83.6%)		102-23
(81.6%)		65-15
(81.3%)		32-8
(80%)		13-7
(65%)		8-2
(80%)		4-1
(80%)		 579-146
(79.9%)
Maine28-7
(80%)		15-8
(65.2%)		8-4
(66.7%)		3-3
(50%)		3-0
(100%)		    116-37
(75.8%)
Maryland71-18
(79.8%)		89-24
(78.8%)		81-20
(80.2%)		77-15
(83.7%)		25-6
(80.6%)		14-3
(82.4%)		7-1
(87.5%)		2-2
(50%)		 544-130
(80.7%)
Massachusetts120-30
(80%)		113-27
(80.7%)		114-29
(79.7%)		116-23
(83.5%)		19-0
(100%)		106-19
(84.8%)		17-11
(60.7%)		  828-201
(80.5%)
Michigan224-44
(83.6%)		101-25
(80.2%)		47-17
(73.4%)		24-8
(75%)		12-4
(75%)		6-2
(75%)		   909-220
(80.5%)
Minnesota116-30
(79.5%)		179-44
(80.3%)		31-9
(77.5%)		17-3
(85%)		7-3
(70%)		4-1
(80%)		   617-146
(80.9%)
Mississippi115-25
(82.1%)		112-25
(81.8%)		109-19
(85.2%)		71-21
(77.2%)		37-11
(77.1%)		16-4
(80%)		13-1
(92.9%)		4-1
(80%)		 722-148
(83%)
Missouri129-30
(81.1%)		125-32
(79.6%)		129-24
(84.3%)		33-7
(82.5%)		16-12
(57.1%)		5-1
(83.3%)		   720-166
(81.3%)
Montana37-1
(97.4%)		16-2
(88.9%)		12-0
(100%)		5-1
(83.3%)		2-1
(66.7%)		    140-17
(89.2%)
Nebraska73-16
(82%)		51-11
(82.3%)		26-6
(81.3%)		4-4
(50%)		3-1
(75%)		    298-76
(79.7%)
Nevada29-2
(93.5%)		24-6
(80%)		17-2
(89.5%)		7-3
(70%)		3-2
(60%)		1-1
(50%)		1-0
(100%)		  129-33
(79.6%)
New Hampshire16-9
(64%)		21-5
(80.8%)		19-1
(95%)		8-0
(100%)		3-0
(100%)		    115-29
(79.9%)
New Jersey124-24
(83.8%)		125-26
(82.8%)		119-24
(83.2%)		116-50
(69.9%)		28-15
(65.1%)		86-21
(80.4%)		14-5
(73.7%)		  853-237
(78.3%)
New Mexico33-8
(80.5%)		33-5
(86.8%)		30-3
(90.9%)		23-5
(82.1%)		12-2
(85.7%)		3-3
(50%)		2-1
(66.7%)		  211-36
(85.4%)
New York187-35
(84.2%)		139-31
(81.8%)		98-24
(80.3%)		53-16
(76.8%)		22-6
(78.6%)		11-3
(78.6%)		0-1
(0%)		  1081-259
(80.7%)
North Carolina130-25
(83.9%)		138-25
(84.7%)		132-26
(83.5%)		115-15
(88.5%)		48-17
(73.8%)		19-13
(59.4%)		12-3
(80%)		5-3
(62.5%)		 866-179
(82.9%)
North Dakota19-5
(79.2%)		9-3
(75%)		5-1
(83.3%)		1-2
(33.3%)		     83-23
(78.3%)
Ohio306-55
(84.8%)		285-76
(78.9%)		82-17
(82.8%)		35-13
(72.9%)		16-8
(66.7%)		8-4
(66.7%)		5-1
(83.3%)		  1346-309
(81.3%)
Oklahoma102-25
(80.3%)		110-18
(85.9%)		108-20
(84.4%)		54-10
(84.4%)		25-7
(78.1%)		12-3
(80%)		5-2
(71.4%)		3-0
(100%)		0-1
(0%)		621-136
(82%)
Oregon81-12
(87.1%)		82-9
(90.1%)		72-20
(78.3%)		24-8
(75%)		17-7
(70.8%)		7-5
(58.3%)		4-2
(66.7%)		3-0
(100%)		 422-98
(81.2%)
Pennsylvania238-61
(79.6%)		231-47
(83.1%)		185-35
(84.1%)		80-25
(76.2%)		28-8
(77.8%)		38-9
(80.9%)		5-4
(55.6%)		4-0
(100%)		 1314-312
(80.8%)
Rhode Island26-4
(86.7%)		17-3
(85%)		15-5
(75%)		16-3
(84.2%)		2-2
(50%)		13-5
(72.2%)		11-3
(78.6%)		0-1
(0%)		 123-38
(76.4%)
South Carolina84-17
(83.2%)		88-16
(84.6%)		74-6
(92.5%)		34-10
(77.3%)		16-6
(72.7%)		8-2
(80%)		4-1
(80%)		  483-93
(83.9%)
South Dakota27-2
(93.1%)		22-1
(95.7%)		6-0
(100%)		3-0
(100%)		     115-9
(92.7%)
Tennessee134-19
(87.6%)		135-19
(87.7%)		68-14
(82.9%)		40-5
(88.9%)		18-5
(78.3%)		6-4
(60%)		3-2
(60%)		  652-115
(85%)
Texas398-92
(81.2%)		383-110
(77.7%)		401-94
(81%)		173-53
(76.5%)		97-26
(78.9%)		44-18
(71%)		23-7
(76.7%)		7-7
(50%)		5-0
(100%)		2294-624
(78.6%)
Utah29-4
(87.9%)		25-8
(75.8%)		12-4
(75%)		5-3
(62.5%)		2-1
(66.7%)		    145-36
(80.1%)
Vermont14-3
(82.4%)		13-3
(81.3%)		4-4
(50%)		3-0
(100%)		     66-19
(77.6%)
Virginia140-24
(85.4%)		140-24
(85.4%)		135-25
(84.4%)		111-18
(86%)		42-9
(82.4%)		18-6
(75%)		7-5
(58.3%)		3-3
(50%)		 844-178
(82.6%)
Washington110-29
(79.1%)		115-23
(83.3%)		47-6
(88.7%)		43-9
(82.7%)		15-5
(75%)		8-2
(80%)		4-1
(80%)		  580-122
(82.6%)
West Virginia53-8
(86.9%)		50-10
(83.3%)		36-9
(80%)		19-6
(76%)		9-4
(69.2%)		4-2
(66.7%)		1-2
(33.3%)		  268-63
(81%)
Wisconsin167-37
(81.9%)		134-30
(81.7%)		21-8
(72.4%)		9-5
(64.3%)		7-0
(100%)		    684-151
(81.9%)
Wyoming22-6
(78.6%)		18-2
(90%)		8-2
(80%)		3-2
(60%)		     98-22
(81.7%)
Prep Schools33-14
(70.2%)		26-16
(61.9%)		33-4
(89.2%)		18-4
(81.8%)		3-2
(60%)		    150-45
(76.9%)
 
NATIONAL5389-1153
(82.4%)		4925-1089
(81.9%)		3582-770
(82.3%)		2227-553
(80.1%)		952-277
(77.5%)		672-222
(75.2%)		245-84
(74.5%)		52-28
(65%)		7-3
(70%)		29107-6741
(81.2%)


Note: By comparison, blindly picking the team with the better record (and the home team in case of equal records), would have yielded the following percentage for the part of the season we pick:  66.7%
(In other words, anything up around 75-80% is pretty good, but it's important to understand that it's easy to pick 70% in regular-season high school football, due to the large number of mismatched games.)

out-of-state: 78.9% (in 394 games)