2005 PROJECTION ACCURACY BREAKDOWN      2004 data


State9/29/99/169/239/3010/710/1410/2110/2811/411/1111/1811/2512/212/912/16TOTALS
Alabama  129-40
(76.3%)
166-42
(79.8%)
172-33
(83.9%)
176-34
(83.8%)
184-29
(86.4%)
182-31
(85.4%)
171-38
(81.8%)
93-15
(86.1%)
44-10
(81.5%)
20-7
(74.1%)
7-5
(58.3%)
5-1
(83.3%)
  1349-285
(82.6%)
Alaska8-4
(66.7%)
8-4
(66.7%)
11-0
(100%)
10-1
(90.9%)
10-3
(76.9%)
4-1
(80%)
3-0
(100%)
1-0
(100%)
        55-13
(80.9%)
Arizona  7-4
(63.6%)
58-14
(80.6%)
54-23
(70.1%)
65-16
(80.2%)
64-19
(77.1%)
70-14
(83.3%)
74-9
(89.2%)
61-10
(85.9%)
34-6
(85%)
18-2
(90%)
7-3
(70%)
1-3
(25%)
  513-123
(80.7%)
Arkansas   56-12
(82.4%)
70-21
(76.9%)
76-18
(80.9%)
76-18
(80.9%)
76-19
(80%)
75-19
(79.8%)
74-17
(81.3%)
42-6
(87.5%)
15-9
(62.5%)
8-4
(66.7%)
5-1
(83.3%)
2-0
(100%)
 575-144
(80%)
California  2-0
(100%)
29-7
(80.6%)
350-94
(78.8%)
369-95
(79.5%)
383-99
(79.5%)
381-103
(78.7%)
394-88
(81.7%)
389-84
(82.2%)
378-91
(80.6%)
202-34
(85.6%)
100-38
(72.5%)
54-12
(81.8%)
11-10
(52.4%)
2-2
(50%)
3044-757
(80.1%)
Colorado   71-23
(75.5%)
79-23
(77.5%)
80-24
(76.9%)
87-15
(85.3%)
79-19
(80.6%)
70-21
(76.9%)
68-10
(87.2%)
27-5
(84.4%)
10-6
(62.5%)
5-3
(62.5%)
3-0
(100%)
  579-149
(79.5%)
Connecticut     38-11
(77.6%)
39-8
(83%)
73-12
(85.9%)
55-9
(85.9%)
53-11
(82.8%)
57-8
(87.7%)
8-3
(72.7%)
47-11
(81%)
12-6
(66.7%)
  382-79
(82.9%)
Delaware    13-4
(76.5%)
11-4
(73.3%)
20-4
(83.3%)
16-3
(84.2%)
17-5
(77.3%)
13-6
(68.4%)
12-6
(66.7%)
3-1
(75%)
0-2
(0%)
2-0
(100%)
  107-35
(75.4%)
District of Columbia   4-3
(57.1%)
8-1
(88.9%)
9-3
(75%)
11-3
(78.6%)
12-1
(92.3%)
16-3
(84.2%)
14-2
(87.5%)
7-0
(100%)
1-0
(100%)
1-0
(100%)
   83-16
(83.8%)
Florida  60-15
(80%)
118-40
(74.7%)
181-48
(79%)
146-42
(77.7%)
183-41
(81.7%)
162-41
(79.8%)
150-39
(79.4%)
120-23
(83.9%)
78-19
(80.4%)
36-12
(75%)
16-7
(69.6%)
10-2
(83.3%)
4-0
(100%)
 1264-329
(79.3%)
Georgia 61-16
(79.2%)
134-39
(77.5%)
129-45
(74.1%)
151-35
(81.2%)
150-30
(83.3%)
138-49
(73.8%)
156-35
(81.7%)
149-26
(85.1%)
81-18
(81.8%)
43-8
(84.3%)
18-7
(72%)
9-3
(75%)
3-2
(60%)
  1222-313
(79.6%)
Hawaii 4-2
(66.7%)
13-1
(92.9%)
13-6
(68.4%)
10-3
(76.9%)
16-5
(76.2%)
16-3
(84.2%)
11-5
(68.8%)
13-4
(76.5%)
10-3
(76.9%)
6-0
(100%)
3-1
(75%)
4-0
(100%)
2-0
(100%)
  121-33
(78.6%)
Idaho  4-4
(50%)
29-4
(87.9%)
29-8
(78.4%)
30-5
(85.7%)
32-5
(86.5%)
35-2
(94.6%)
20-8
(71.4%)
16-0
(100%)
8-0
(100%)
2-2
(50%)
    205-38
(84.4%)
Illinois  166-47
(77.9%)
215-54
(79.9%)
216-56
(79.4%)
222-51
(81.3%)
224-43
(83.9%)
215-43
(83.3%)
101-27
(78.9%)
42-22
(65.6%)
22-10
(68.8%)
14-4
(77.8%)
7-2
(77.8%)
   1444-359
(80.1%)
Indiana 116-37
(75.8%)
124-32
(79.5%)
120-37
(76.4%)
114-46
(71.3%)
135-23
(85.4%)
131-26
(83.4%)
126-25
(83.4%)
67-13
(83.8%)
31-9
(77.5%)
14-6
(70%)
5-5
(50%)
3-2
(60%)
   986-261
(79.1%)
Iowa  0-1
(0%)
126-29
(81.3%)
133-24
(84.7%)
129-29
(81.6%)
138-20
(87.3%)
130-27
(82.8%)
126-21
(85.7%)
29-11
(72.5%)
10-4
(71.4%)
7-2
(77.8%)
    828-168
(83.1%)
Kansas   68-22
(75.6%)
97-17
(85.1%)
98-25
(79.7%)
105-17
(86.1%)
104-17
(86%)
103-18
(85.1%)
67-19
(77.9%)
17-3
(85%)
9-1
(90%)
3-2
(60%)
   671-141
(82.6%)
Kentucky 29-9
(76.3%)
81-17
(82.7%)
82-14
(85.4%)
93-11
(89.4%)
87-10
(89.7%)
89-11
(89%)
83-22
(79%)
91-14
(86.7%)
53-11
(82.8%)
26-6
(81.3%)
13-3
(81.3%)
6-2
(75%)
2-2
(50%)
  735-132
(84.8%)
Louisiana   27-10
(73%)
41-21
(66.1%)
68-26
(72.3%)
84-20
(80.8%)
95-23
(80.5%)
107-21
(83.6%)
102-23
(81.6%)
65-15
(81.3%)
32-8
(80%)
13-7
(65%)
8-2
(80%)
4-1
(80%)
 646-177
(78.5%)
Maine   22-6
(78.6%)
23-7
(76.7%)
24-5
(82.8%)
27-8
(77.1%)
28-7
(80%)
15-8
(65.2%)
8-4
(66.7%)
3-3
(50%)
3-0
(100%)
    153-48
(76.1%)
Maryland   2-1
(66.7%)
65-30
(68.4%)
51-9
(85%)
108-26
(80.6%)
71-18
(79.8%)
91-24
(79.1%)
81-20
(80.2%)
77-15
(83.7%)
25-6
(80.6%)
14-3
(82.4%)
7-1
(87.5%)
2-2
(50%)
 594-155
(79.3%)
Massachusetts    69-22
(75.8%)
102-26
(79.7%)
99-24
(80.5%)
120-30
(80%)
113-27
(80.7%)
114-29
(79.7%)
116-23
(83.5%)
19-0
(100%)
106-19
(84.8%)
17-11
(60.7%)
  875-211
(80.6%)
Michigan  211-78
(73%)
243-64
(79.2%)
256-52
(83.1%)
252-56
(81.8%)
223-60
(78.8%)
224-44
(83.6%)
101-25
(80.2%)
47-17
(73.4%)
24-8
(75%)
12-4
(75%)
6-2
(75%)
   1599-410
(79.6%)
Minnesota   110-35
(75.9%)
123-33
(78.8%)
128-28
(82.1%)
129-27
(82.7%)
116-30
(79.5%)
179-44
(80.3%)
31-9
(77.5%)
17-3
(85%)
7-3
(70%)
4-1
(80%)
   844-213
(79.8%)
Mississippi 4-1
(80%)
7-2
(77.8%)
71-19
(78.9%)
93-24
(79.5%)
125-17
(88%)
121-24
(83.4%)
115-25
(82.1%)
112-25
(81.8%)
109-19
(85.2%)
71-21
(77.2%)
37-11
(77.1%)
16-4
(80%)
13-1
(92.9%)
4-1
(80%)
 898-194
(82.2%)
Missouri   84-36
(70%)
119-34
(77.8%)
138-25
(84.7%)
134-26
(83.8%)
129-30
(81.1%)
125-32
(79.6%)
129-24
(84.3%)
33-7
(82.5%)
16-12
(57.1%)
5-1
(83.3%)
   912-227
(80.1%)
Montana  4-0
(100%)
25-9
(73.5%)
30-6
(83.3%)
32-6
(84.2%)
34-5
(87.2%)
37-1
(97.4%)
16-2
(88.9%)
12-0
(100%)
5-1
(83.3%)
2-1
(66.7%)
    197-31
(86.4%)
Nebraska  0-1
(0%)
71-15
(82.6%)
69-20
(77.5%)
70-19
(78.7%)
71-19
(78.9%)
73-16
(82%)
51-11
(82.3%)
26-6
(81.3%)
4-4
(50%)
3-1
(75%)
    438-112
(79.6%)
Nevada  9-5
(64.3%)
26-3
(89.7%)
28-5
(84.8%)
25-5
(83.3%)
18-11
(62.1%)
29-2
(93.5%)
24-6
(80%)
17-2
(89.5%)
7-3
(70%)
3-2
(60%)
1-1
(50%)
1-0
(100%)
  188-45
(80.7%)
New Hampshire   16-5
(76.2%)
19-6
(76%)
19-3
(86.4%)
18-7
(72%)
16-9
(64%)
21-5
(80.8%)
19-1
(95%)
8-0
(100%)
3-0
(100%)
    139-36
(79.4%)
New Jersey    50-20
(71.4%)
109-29
(79%)
110-35
(75.9%)
124-24
(83.8%)
125-26
(82.8%)
119-24
(83.2%)
116-50
(69.9%)
28-15
(65.1%)
86-21
(80.4%)
14-5
(73.7%)
  881-249
(78%)
New Mexico  12-3
(80%)
29-6
(82.9%)
32-10
(76.2%)
33-5
(86.8%)
36-2
(94.7%)
33-8
(80.5%)
33-5
(86.8%)
30-3
(90.9%)
23-5
(82.1%)
12-2
(85.7%)
3-3
(50%)
2-1
(66.7%)
  278-53
(84%)
New York   120-46
(72.3%)
174-45
(79.5%)
236-57
(80.5%)
238-59
(80.1%)
187-35
(84.2%)
139-31
(81.8%)
98-24
(80.3%)
53-16
(76.8%)
22-6
(78.6%)
11-3
(78.6%)
0-1
(0%)
  1278-323
(79.8%)
North Carolina 52-14
(78.8%)
106-23
(82.2%)
114-40
(74%)
108-29
(78.8%)
57-12
(82.6%)
210-39
(84.3%)
130-25
(83.9%)
138-25
(84.7%)
132-26
(83.5%)
115-15
(88.5%)
48-17
(73.8%)
19-13
(59.4%)
12-3
(80%)
5-3
(62.5%)
 1246-284
(81.4%)
North Dakota  9-4
(69.2%)
23-5
(82.1%)
23-7
(76.7%)
22-5
(81.5%)
25-6
(80.6%)
19-5
(79.2%)
9-3
(75%)
5-1
(83.3%)
1-2
(33.3%)
     136-38
(78.2%)
Ohio  275-81
(77.2%)
295-75
(79.7%)
283-81
(77.7%)
299-63
(82.6%)
295-69
(81%)
310-56
(84.7%)
287-77
(78.8%)
85-17
(83.3%)
39-14
(73.6%)
19-8
(70.4%)
9-5
(64.3%)
6-2
(75%)
  2202-548
(80.1%)
Oklahoma   85-24
(78%)
94-31
(75.2%)
100-26
(79.4%)
102-24
(81%)
102-25
(80.3%)
110-18
(85.9%)
108-20
(84.4%)
54-10
(84.4%)
25-7
(78.1%)
12-3
(80%)
5-2
(71.4%)
3-0
(100%)
0-1
(0%)
800-191
(80.7%)
Oregon   16-5
(76.2%)
42-19
(68.9%)
60-16
(78.9%)
72-19
(79.1%)
81-12
(87.1%)
82-9
(90.1%)
72-20
(78.3%)
24-8
(75%)
17-7
(70.8%)
7-5
(58.3%)
4-2
(66.7%)
3-0
(100%)
 480-122
(79.7%)
Pennsylvania  49-8
(86%)
195-71
(73.3%)
224-67
(77%)
196-42
(82.4%)
267-68
(79.7%)
238-61
(79.6%)
231-47
(83.1%)
185-35
(84.1%)
80-25
(76.2%)
28-8
(77.8%)
38-9
(80.9%)
5-4
(55.6%)
4-0
(100%)
 1740-445
(79.6%)
Rhode Island    6-6
(50%)
11-7
(61.1%)
8-2
(80%)
26-4
(86.7%)
17-3
(85%)
15-5
(75%)
16-3
(84.2%)
2-2
(50%)
13-5
(72.2%)
11-3
(78.6%)
0-1
(0%)
 125-41
(75.3%)
South Carolina 1-1
(50%)
63-32
(66.3%)
75-27
(73.5%)
81-23
(77.9%)
74-12
(86%)
101-23
(81.5%)
84-17
(83.2%)
88-16
(84.6%)
74-6
(92.5%)
34-10
(77.3%)
16-6
(72.7%)
8-2
(80%)
4-1
(80%)
  703-176
(80%)
South Dakota  5-3
(62.5%)
21-9
(70%)
28-3
(90.3%)
29-2
(93.5%)
28-4
(87.5%)
27-2
(93.1%)
22-1
(95.7%)
6-0
(100%)
3-0
(100%)
     169-24
(87.6%)
Tennessee 15-1
(93.8%)
108-42
(72%)
107-30
(78.1%)
132-24
(84.6%)
124-21
(85.5%)
125-26
(82.8%)
134-19
(87.6%)
135-19
(87.7%)
68-14
(82.9%)
40-5
(88.9%)
18-5
(78.3%)
6-4
(60%)
3-2
(60%)
  1015-212
(82.7%)
Texas  134-49
(73.2%)
262-71
(78.7%)
238-86
(73.5%)
368-108
(77.3%)
386-102
(79.1%)
398-92
(81.2%)
383-110
(77.7%)
401-94
(81%)
173-53
(76.5%)
97-26
(78.9%)
44-18
(71%)
23-7
(76.7%)
7-7
(50%)
5-0
(100%)
2919-823
(78%)
Utah 22-9
(71%)
29-13
(69%)
37-8
(82.2%)
36-9
(80%)
37-7
(84.1%)
35-9
(79.5%)
29-4
(87.9%)
25-8
(75.8%)
12-4
(75%)
5-3
(62.5%)
2-1
(66.7%)
    269-75
(78.2%)
Vermont   7-4
(63.6%)
12-4
(75%)
13-3
(81.3%)
11-3
(78.6%)
14-3
(82.4%)
13-3
(81.3%)
4-4
(50%)
3-0
(100%)
     77-24
(76.2%)
Virginia  6-1
(85.7%)
28-12
(70%)
89-25
(78.1%)
72-12
(85.7%)
171-50
(77.4%)
140-24
(85.4%)
140-24
(85.4%)
135-25
(84.4%)
111-18
(86%)
42-9
(82.4%)
18-6
(75%)
7-5
(58.3%)
3-3
(50%)
 962-214
(81.8%)
Washington   87-26
(77%)
110-26
(80.9%)
112-26
(81.2%)
118-20
(85.5%)
110-29
(79.1%)
115-23
(83.3%)
47-6
(88.7%)
43-9
(82.7%)
15-5
(75%)
8-2
(80%)
4-1
(80%)
  769-173
(81.6%)
West Virginia  29-8
(78.4%)
43-10
(81.1%)
46-11
(80.7%)
43-10
(81.1%)
44-12
(78.6%)
52-8
(86.7%)
47-9
(83.9%)
35-9
(79.5%)
19-6
(76%)
9-4
(69.2%)
4-2
(66.7%)
1-2
(33.3%)
  372-91
(80.3%)
Wisconsin  145-51
(74%)
165-39
(80.9%)
158-47
(77.1%)
171-35
(83%)
175-35
(83.3%)
167-37
(81.9%)
134-30
(81.7%)
21-8
(72.4%)
9-5
(64.3%)
7-0
(100%)
    1152-287
(80.1%)
Wyoming   16-8
(66.7%)
20-7
(74.1%)
23-5
(82.1%)
24-5
(82.8%)
22-6
(78.6%)
18-2
(90%)
8-2
(80%)
3-2
(60%)
     134-37
(78.4%)
Prep Schools  0-2
(0%)
2-0
(100%)
4-1
(80%)
10-0
(100%)
26-4
(86.7%)
33-14
(70.2%)
26-16
(61.9%)
33-4
(89.2%)
18-4
(81.8%)
3-2
(60%)
    155-47
(76.7%)
 
NATIONAL8-4
(66.7%)
311-94
(76.8%)
1917-598
(76.2%)
3686-1056
(77.7%)
4669-1271
(78.6%)
5035-1148
(81.4%)
5554-1274
(81.3%)
5389-1153
(82.4%)
4927-1089
(81.9%)
3582-770
(82.3%)
2227-553
(80.1%)
952-277
(77.5%)
672-222
(75.2%)
245-84
(74.5%)
52-28
(65%)
7-3
(70%)
39233-9624
(80.3%)


Note: By comparison, blindly picking the team with the better record (and the home team in case of equal records), would have yielded the following percentage for the season:  70.5%
(In other words, anything up around 75-80% is pretty good, but it's important to understand that it's easy to pick 70% in regular-season high school football, due to the large number of mismatched games.)