2004 PROJECTION ACCURACY BREAKDOWN      2003 data


State9/39/109/179/2410/110/810/1510/2210/2911/511/1211/1911/2612/312/1012/17TOTALS
Alabama   109-28
(79.6%)
152-30
(83.5%)
160-37
(81.2%)
172-34
(83.5%)
181-25
(87.9%)
148-30
(83.1%)
136-34
(80%)
90-18
(83.3%)
37-17
(68.5%)
23-4
(85.2%)
10-2
(83.3%)
3-3
(50%)
 1221-262
(82.3%)
Alaska11-2
(84.6%)
9-1
(90%)
11-1
(91.7%)
9-3
(75%)
8-4
(66.7%)
5-1
(83.3%)
2-1
(66.7%)
0-1
(0%)
        55-14
(79.7%)
Arizona  4-1
(80%)
41-7
(85.4%)
52-15
(77.6%)
64-8
(88.9%)
62-12
(83.8%)
66-11
(85.7%)
54-19
(74%)
60-7
(89.6%)
20-4
(83.3%)
7-5
(58.3%)
2-4
(33.3%)
2-0
(100%)
  434-93
(82.4%)
Arkansas   52-24
(68.4%)
72-18
(80%)
77-17
(81.9%)
65-25
(72.2%)
77-17
(81.9%)
76-19
(80%)
75-18
(80.6%)
40-8
(83.3%)
17-6
(73.9%)
7-5
(58.3%)
3-3
(50%)
1-1
(50%)
 562-161
(77.7%)
California  1-0
(100%)
21-8
(72.4%)
331-108
(75.4%)
339-95
(78.1%)
358-91
(79.7%)
371-91
(80.3%)
382-84
(82%)
379-80
(82.6%)
350-73
(82.7%)
182-52
(77.8%)
104-30
(77.6%)
46-17
(73%)
18-3
(85.7%)
2-1
(66.7%)
2884-733
(79.7%)
Colorado  1-0
(100%)
60-18
(76.9%)
57-15
(79.2%)
82-21
(79.6%)
76-23
(76.8%)
78-22
(78%)
82-10
(89.1%)
63-17
(78.8%)
23-9
(71.9%)
12-4
(75%)
5-3
(62.5%)
3-0
(100%)
  542-142
(79.2%)
Connecticut     45-11
(80.4%)
50-13
(79.4%)
51-11
(82.3%)
55-9
(85.9%)
53-11
(82.8%)
31-8
(79.5%)
18-2
(90%)
50-7
(87.7%)
15-3
(83.3%)
  368-75
(83.1%)
Delaware    13-2
(86.7%)
12-6
(66.7%)
18-2
(90%)
14-6
(70%)
15-4
(78.9%)
18-1
(94.7%)
14-4
(77.8%)
4-0
(100%)
1-3
(25%)
1-1
(50%)
  110-29
(79.1%)
District of Columbia   3-1
(75%)
7-1
(87.5%)
14-0
(100%)
11-3
(78.6%)
11-1
(91.7%)
11-3
(78.6%)
10-2
(83.3%)
5-2
(71.4%)
0-1
(0%)
1-0
(100%)
   73-14
(83.9%)
Florida    17-7
(70.8%)
66-19
(77.6%)
165-52
(76%)
178-51
(77.7%)
179-50
(78.2%)
173-39
(81.6%)
79-16
(83.2%)
39-9
(81.3%)
17-7
(70.8%)
7-3
(70%)
6-1
(85.7%)
 926-254
(78.5%)
Georgia 60-27
(69%)
122-29
(80.8%)
128-33
(79.5%)
144-40
(78.3%)
147-33
(81.7%)
150-36
(80.6%)
150-36
(80.6%)
153-20
(88.4%)
80-17
(82.5%)
41-9
(82%)
14-11
(56%)
11-1
(91.7%)
4-0
(100%)
  1204-292
(80.5%)
Hawaii 5-2
(71.4%)
8-4
(66.7%)
14-3
(82.4%)
13-3
(81.3%)
16-4
(80%)
16-4
(80%)
10-0
(100%)
9-4
(69.2%)
4-1
(80%)
2-0
(100%)
3-1
(75%)
2-2
(50%)
1-1
(50%)
  103-29
(78%)
Idaho  6-1
(85.7%)
21-12
(63.6%)
24-9
(72.7%)
25-8
(75.8%)
29-8
(78.4%)
31-6
(83.8%)
17-2
(89.5%)
8-8
(50%)
5-3
(62.5%)
2-2
(50%)
    168-59
(74%)
Illinois  18-7
(72%)
146-46
(76%)
204-56
(78.5%)
214-51
(80.8%)
220-45
(83%)
196-41
(82.7%)
99-28
(78%)
48-16
(75%)
22-10
(68.8%)
16-4
(80%)
5-4
(55.6%)
   1188-308
(79.4%)
Indiana 104-35
(74.8%)
121-33
(78.6%)
128-27
(82.6%)
138-20
(87.3%)
142-17
(89.3%)
129-28
(82.2%)
130-21
(86.1%)
61-19
(76.3%)
30-10
(75%)
11-9
(55%)
8-2
(80%)
4-1
(80%)
   1006-222
(81.9%)
Iowa  3-0
(100%)
98-33
(74.8%)
124-28
(81.6%)
113-42
(72.9%)
120-33
(78.4%)
124-30
(80.5%)
96-22
(81.4%)
27-13
(67.5%)
16-9
(64%)
7-2
(77.8%)
    728-212
(77.4%)
Kansas   63-16
(79.7%)
71-31
(69.6%)
85-31
(73.3%)
96-21
(82.1%)
96-26
(78.7%)
96-27
(78%)
68-20
(77.3%)
11-9
(55%)
8-2
(80%)
3-2
(60%)
   597-185
(76.3%)
Kentucky 21-18
(53.8%)
84-11
(88.4%)
72-15
(82.8%)
88-13
(87.1%)
91-10
(90.1%)
94-11
(89.5%)
96-9
(91.4%)
86-16
(84.3%)
55-9
(85.9%)
24-8
(75%)
10-6
(62.5%)
5-3
(62.5%)
4-0
(100%)
  730-129
(85%)
Louisiana   50-22
(69.4%)
102-34
(75%)
111-32
(77.6%)
119-24
(83.2%)
123-16
(88.5%)
118-25
(82.5%)
117-27
(81.3%)
62-18
(77.5%)
31-9
(77.5%)
13-7
(65%)
8-2
(80%)
4-1
(80%)
 858-217
(79.8%)
Maine   18-4
(81.8%)
25-7
(78.1%)
30-2
(93.8%)
26-6
(81.3%)
26-3
(89.7%)
13-4
(76.5%)
10-2
(83.3%)
5-1
(83.3%)
3-0
(100%)
    156-29
(84.3%)
Maryland   34-8
(81%)
66-17
(79.5%)
74-26
(74%)
74-24
(75.5%)
74-25
(74.7%)
82-15
(84.5%)
75-18
(80.6%)
30-7
(81.1%)
11-5
(68.8%)
6-3
(66.7%)
1-3
(25%)
  527-151
(77.7%)
Massachusetts    13-5
(72.2%)
47-16
(74.6%)
78-17
(82.1%)
78-27
(74.3%)
76-27
(73.8%)
79-26
(75.2%)
66-13
(83.5%)
5-3
(62.5%)
74-14
(84.1%)
18-9
(66.7%)
  534-157
(77.3%)
Michigan  196-64
(75.4%)
213-60
(78%)
238-61
(79.6%)
225-74
(75.3%)
223-59
(79.1%)
195-54
(78.3%)
106-22
(82.8%)
46-19
(70.8%)
25-7
(78.1%)
12-4
(75%)
7-1
(87.5%)
   1486-425
(77.8%)
Minnesota   25-11
(69.4%)
97-24
(80.2%)
92-33
(73.6%)
110-19
(85.3%)
73-26
(73.7%)
184-38
(82.9%)
31-9
(77.5%)
14-6
(70%)
7-3
(70%)
2-3
(40%)
   635-172
(78.7%)
Mississippi 14-3
(82.4%)
51-12
(81%)
105-25
(80.8%)
127-28
(81.9%)
126-28
(81.8%)
124-32
(79.5%)
132-20
(86.8%)
121-20
(85.8%)
85-10
(89.5%)
37-10
(78.7%)
17-7
(70.8%)
6-4
(60%)
4-1
(80%)
  949-200
(82.6%)
Missouri   56-7
(88.9%)
80-16
(83.3%)
115-23
(83.3%)
106-36
(74.6%)
128-23
(84.8%)
123-22
(84.8%)
124-25
(83.2%)
32-8
(80%)
21-7
(75%)
3-3
(50%)
   788-170
(82.3%)
Montana  13-3
(81.3%)
27-7
(79.4%)
32-6
(84.2%)
31-7
(81.6%)
30-8
(78.9%)
27-11
(71.1%)
15-2
(88.2%)
9-3
(75%)
5-1
(83.3%)
1-2
(33.3%)
    190-50
(79.2%)
Nebraska   68-16
(81%)
68-20
(77.3%)
69-19
(78.4%)
77-12
(86.5%)
74-13
(85.1%)
46-15
(75.4%)
23-9
(71.9%)
20-4
(83.3%)
1-3
(25%)
    446-111
(80.1%)
Nevada  7-1
(87.5%)
23-3
(88.5%)
24-9
(72.7%)
32-1
(97%)
28-3
(90.3%)
29-4
(87.9%)
27-4
(87.1%)
15-5
(75%)
4-2
(66.7%)
4-1
(80%)
0-2
(0%)
1-0
(100%)
  194-35
(84.7%)
New Hampshire   1-0
(100%)
20-3
(87%)
21-2
(91.3%)
15-8
(65.2%)
20-3
(87%)
22-0
(100%)
11-4
(73.3%)
5-2
(71.4%)
2-0
(100%)
2-0
(100%)
   119-22
(84.4%)
New Jersey    54-18
(75%)
127-24
(84.1%)
139-27
(83.7%)
133-27
(83.1%)
138-21
(86.8%)
121-35
(77.6%)
58-14
(80.6%)
26-13
(66.7%)
95-17
(84.8%)
13-7
(65%)
  904-203
(81.7%)
New Mexico  6-2
(75%)
17-9
(65.4%)
26-4
(86.7%)
24-4
(85.7%)
20-9
(69%)
27-6
(81.8%)
30-3
(90.9%)
26-7
(78.8%)
13-1
(92.9%)
12-2
(85.7%)
6-0
(100%)
3-0
(100%)
  210-47
(81.7%)
New York   92-27
(77.3%)
154-41
(79%)
229-49
(82.4%)
222-51
(81.3%)
182-50
(78.4%)
140-29
(82.8%)
73-25
(74.5%)
34-11
(75.6%)
15-3
(83.3%)
5-3
(62.5%)
1-0
(100%)
  1147-289
(79.9%)
North Carolina 31-10
(75.6%)
65-19
(77.4%)
117-34
(77.5%)
114-35
(76.5%)
109-21
(83.8%)
109-24
(82%)
103-29
(78%)
111-21
(84.1%)
114-24
(82.6%)
105-25
(80.8%)
46-18
(71.9%)
26-6
(81.3%)
11-5
(68.8%)
5-3
(62.5%)
 1066-274
(79.6%)
North Dakota    1-0
(100%)
3-0
(100%)
2-0
(100%)
5-0
(100%)
8-5
(61.5%)
3-3
(50%)
2-1
(66.7%)
     24-9
(72.7%)
Ohio  177-56
(76%)
284-76
(78.9%)
285-75
(79.2%)
289-70
(80.5%)
293-68
(81.2%)
320-42
(88.4%)
302-58
(83.9%)
77-23
(77%)
39-14
(73.6%)
20-7
(74.1%)
10-5
(66.7%)
6-1
(85.7%)
  2102-495
(80.9%)
Oklahoma   66-21
(75.9%)
88-14
(86.3%)
92-15
(86%)
89-16
(84.8%)
87-19
(82.1%)
91-14
(86.7%)
91-19
(82.7%)
54-10
(84.4%)
23-9
(71.9%)
11-5
(68.8%)
6-2
(75%)
2-0
(100%)
 700-144
(82.9%)
Oregon   3-1
(75%)
51-18
(73.9%)
65-20
(76.5%)
72-14
(83.7%)
68-16
(81%)
77-12
(86.5%)
60-11
(84.5%)
22-10
(68.8%)
13-11
(54.2%)
8-4
(66.7%)
3-3
(50%)
3-0
(100%)
 445-120
(78.8%)
Pennsylvania  27-13
(67.5%)
123-30
(80.4%)
234-54
(81.3%)
238-58
(80.4%)
252-45
(84.8%)
246-47
(84%)
214-46
(82.3%)
157-42
(78.9%)
71-17
(80.7%)
26-11
(70.3%)
38-9
(80.9%)
7-3
(70%)
3-1
(75%)
 1636-376
(81.3%)
Rhode Island    7-2
(77.8%)
13-4
(76.5%)
15-2
(88.2%)
16-0
(100%)
9-5
(64.3%)
13-4
(76.5%)
6-0
(100%)
11-2
(84.6%)
17-3
(85%)
10-4
(71.4%)
1-0
(100%)
 118-26
(81.9%)
South Carolina 1-2
(33.3%)
66-21
(75.9%)
72-25
(74.2%)
79-21
(79%)
77-19
(80.2%)
84-17
(83.2%)
83-19
(81.4%)
83-18
(82.2%)
62-19
(76.5%)
33-11
(75%)
17-5
(77.3%)
7-3
(70%)
4-1
(80%)
  668-181
(78.7%)
South Dakota  7-2
(77.8%)
30-4
(88.2%)
29-4
(87.9%)
22-9
(71%)
29-5
(85.3%)
26-2
(92.9%)
23-0
(100%)
15-3
(83.3%)
2-1
(66.7%)
     183-30
(85.9%)
Tennessee 8-8
(50%)
94-24
(79.7%)
103-35
(74.6%)
115-36
(76.2%)
111-28
(79.9%)
123-25
(83.1%)
120-26
(82.2%)
118-30
(79.7%)
75-13
(85.2%)
34-10
(77.3%)
13-7
(65%)
12-1
(92.3%)
5-0
(100%)
  931-243
(79.3%)
Texas  71-35
(67%)
218-88
(71.2%)
246-75
(76.6%)
358-112
(76.2%)
382-90
(80.9%)
402-76
(84.1%)
374-101
(78.7%)
392-81
(82.9%)
174-49
(78%)
85-34
(71.4%)
43-19
(69.4%)
22-8
(73.3%)
9-5
(64.3%)
5-0
(100%)
2781-773
(78.2%)
Utah 24-4
(85.7%)
37-5
(88.1%)
36-8
(81.8%)
34-11
(75.6%)
31-10
(75.6%)
33-9
(78.6%)
37-6
(86%)
24-8
(75%)
13-3
(81.3%)
4-4
(50%)
3-0
(100%)
    276-68
(80.2%)
Vermont   5-5
(50%)
10-3
(76.9%)
8-4
(66.7%)
10-2
(83.3%)
8-2
(80%)
8-4
(66.7%)
3-3
(50%)
3-0
(100%)
     55-23
(70.5%)
Virginia  4-1
(80%)
21-8
(72.4%)
78-25
(75.7%)
89-35
(71.8%)
102-29
(77.9%)
111-32
(77.6%)
110-16
(87.3%)
108-23
(82.4%)
84-15
(84.8%)
36-11
(76.6%)
19-4
(82.6%)
9-3
(75%)
5-1
(83.3%)
 776-203
(79.3%)
Washington   70-36
(66%)
105-34
(75.5%)
109-34
(76.2%)
116-30
(79.5%)
111-36
(75.5%)
117-30
(79.6%)
57-10
(85.1%)
17-15
(53.1%)
18-2
(90%)
8-2
(80%)
4-1
(80%)
  732-230
(76.1%)
West Virginia  15-5
(75%)
39-15
(72.2%)
41-13
(75.9%)
46-10
(82.1%)
43-12
(78.2%)
47-12
(79.7%)
44-11
(80%)
29-8
(78.4%)
22-3
(88%)
11-1
(91.7%)
4-3
(57.1%)
2-0
(100%)
  343-93
(78.7%)
Wisconsin  1-2
(33.3%)
155-41
(79.1%)
169-30
(84.9%)
166-32
(83.8%)
162-37
(81.4%)
164-33
(83.2%)
117-39
(75%)
16-9
(64%)
9-4
(69.2%)
5-2
(71.4%)
    964-229
(80.8%)
Wyoming  20-2
(90.9%)
24-5
(82.8%)
25-5
(83.3%)
24-5
(82.8%)
25-5
(83.3%)
19-1
(95%)
6-4
(60%)
4-1
(80%)
      147-28
(84%)
Prep Schools  0-1
(0%)
3-0
(100%)
5-2
(71.4%)
19-5
(79.2%)
23-6
(79.3%)
43-11
(79.6%)
47-5
(90.4%)
42-9
(82.4%)
22-11
(66.7%)
6-0
(100%)
    210-50
(80.8%)
 
NATIONAL11-2
(84.6%)
277-109
(71.8%)
1227-353
(77.7%)
3034-901
(77.1%)
4322-1138
(79.2%)
4876-1233
(79.8%)
5147-1203
(81.1%)
5161-1111
(82.3%)
4708-1034
(82%)
3448-828
(80.6%)
1888-503
(79%)
881-308
(74.1%)
655-195
(77.1%)
234-83
(73.8%)
60-19
(75.9%)
7-1
(87.5%)
35936-9021
(79.9%)


Note: By comparison, blindly picking the team with the better record (and the home team in case of equal records), would have yielded the following percentage for the season:  70.2%
(In other words, anything up around 75-80% is pretty good, but it's important to understand that it's easy to pick 70% in regular-season high school football, due to the large number of mismatched games.)