2004 PROJECTION ACCURACY BREAKDOWN      2003 data


State10/2210/2911/511/1211/1911/2612/312/1012/17TOTALS
Alabama181-25
(87.9%)		148-30
(83.1%)		136-34
(80%)		90-18
(83.3%)		37-17
(68.5%)		23-4
(85.2%)		10-2
(83.3%)		3-3
(50%)		 1107-233
(82.6%)
Alaska0-1
(0%)		        15-7
(68.2%)
Arizona66-11
(85.7%)		54-19
(74%)		60-7
(89.6%)		20-4
(83.3%)		7-5
(58.3%)		2-4
(33.3%)		2-0
(100%)		  388-85
(82%)
Arkansas77-17
(81.9%)		76-19
(80%)		75-18
(80.6%)		40-8
(83.3%)		17-6
(73.9%)		7-5
(58.3%)		3-3
(50%)		1-1
(50%)		 510-137
(78.8%)
California371-91
(80.3%)		382-84
(82%)		379-80
(82.6%)		350-73
(82.7%)		182-52
(77.8%)		104-30
(77.6%)		46-17
(73%)		18-3
(85.7%)		2-1
(66.7%)		2844-722
(79.8%)
Colorado78-22
(78%)		82-10
(89.1%)		63-17
(78.8%)		23-9
(71.9%)		12-4
(75%)		5-3
(62.5%)		3-0
(100%)		  474-121
(79.7%)
Connecticut51-11
(82.3%)		55-9
(85.9%)		53-11
(82.8%)		31-8
(79.5%)		18-2
(90%)		50-7
(87.7%)		15-3
(83.3%)		  368-75
(83.1%)
Delaware14-6
(70%)		15-4
(78.9%)		18-1
(94.7%)		14-4
(77.8%)		4-0
(100%)		1-3
(25%)		1-1
(50%)		  110-29
(79.1%)
District of Columbia11-1
(91.7%)		11-3
(78.6%)		10-2
(83.3%)		5-2
(71.4%)		0-1
(0%)		1-0
(100%)		   70-13
(84.3%)
Florida178-51
(77.7%)		179-50
(78.2%)		173-39
(81.6%)		79-16
(83.2%)		39-9
(81.3%)		17-7
(70.8%)		7-3
(70%)		6-1
(85.7%)		 926-254
(78.5%)
Georgia150-36
(80.6%)		153-20
(88.4%)		80-17
(82.5%)		41-9
(82%)		14-11
(56%)		11-1
(91.7%)		4-0
(100%)		  894-202
(81.6%)
Hawaii10-0
(100%)		9-4
(69.2%)		4-1
(80%)		2-0
(100%)		3-1
(75%)		2-2
(50%)		1-1
(50%)		  76-19
(80%)
Idaho31-6
(83.8%)		17-2
(89.5%)		8-8
(50%)		5-3
(62.5%)		2-2
(50%)		    139-46
(75.1%)
Illinois196-41
(82.7%)		99-28
(78%)		48-16
(75%)		22-10
(68.8%)		16-4
(80%)		5-4
(55.6%)		   1019-252
(80.2%)
Indiana130-21
(86.1%)		61-19
(76.3%)		30-10
(75%)		11-9
(55%)		8-2
(80%)		4-1
(80%)		   653-127
(83.7%)
Iowa124-30
(80.5%)		96-22
(81.4%)		27-13
(67.5%)		16-9
(64%)		7-2
(77.8%)		    624-179
(77.7%)
Kansas96-26
(78.7%)		96-27
(78%)		68-20
(77.3%)		11-9
(55%)		8-2
(80%)		3-2
(60%)		   533-169
(75.9%)
Kentucky96-9
(91.4%)		86-16
(84.3%)		55-9
(85.9%)		24-8
(75%)		10-6
(62.5%)		5-3
(62.5%)		4-0
(100%)		  543-83
(86.7%)
Louisiana123-16
(88.5%)		118-25
(82.5%)		117-27
(81.3%)		62-18
(77.5%)		31-9
(77.5%)		13-7
(65%)		8-2
(80%)		4-1
(80%)		 794-193
(80.4%)
Maine26-3
(89.7%)		13-4
(76.5%)		10-2
(83.3%)		5-1
(83.3%)		3-0
(100%)		    138-25
(84.7%)
Maryland74-25
(74.7%)		82-15
(84.5%)		75-18
(80.6%)		30-7
(81.1%)		11-5
(68.8%)		6-3
(66.7%)		1-3
(25%)		  492-143
(77.5%)
Massachusetts78-27
(74.3%)		76-27
(73.8%)		79-26
(75.2%)		66-13
(83.5%)		5-3
(62.5%)		74-14
(84.1%)		18-9
(66.7%)		  534-157
(77.3%)
Michigan195-54
(78.3%)		106-22
(82.8%)		46-19
(70.8%)		25-7
(78.1%)		12-4
(75%)		7-1
(87.5%)		   1077-301
(78.2%)
Minnesota73-26
(73.7%)		184-38
(82.9%)		31-9
(77.5%)		14-6
(70%)		7-3
(70%)		2-3
(40%)		   610-161
(79.1%)
Mississippi132-20
(86.8%)		121-20
(85.8%)		85-10
(89.5%)		37-10
(78.7%)		17-7
(70.8%)		6-4
(60%)		4-1
(80%)		  778-159
(83%)
Missouri128-23
(84.8%)		123-22
(84.8%)		124-25
(83.2%)		32-8
(80%)		21-7
(75%)		3-3
(50%)		   732-163
(81.8%)
Montana27-11
(71.1%)		15-2
(88.2%)		9-3
(75%)		5-1
(83.3%)		1-2
(33.3%)		    150-40
(78.9%)
Nebraska74-13
(85.1%)		46-15
(75.4%)		23-9
(71.9%)		20-4
(83.3%)		1-3
(25%)		    377-94
(80%)
Nevada29-4
(87.9%)		27-4
(87.1%)		15-5
(75%)		4-2
(66.7%)		4-1
(80%)		0-2
(0%)		1-0
(100%)		  163-31
(84%)
New Hampshire20-3
(87%)		22-0
(100%)		11-4
(73.3%)		5-2
(71.4%)		2-0
(100%)		2-0
(100%)		   118-22
(84.3%)
New Jersey133-27
(83.1%)		138-21
(86.8%)		121-35
(77.6%)		58-14
(80.6%)		26-13
(66.7%)		95-17
(84.8%)		13-7
(65%)		  904-203
(81.7%)
New Mexico27-6
(81.8%)		30-3
(90.9%)		26-7
(78.8%)		13-1
(92.9%)		12-2
(85.7%)		6-0
(100%)		3-0
(100%)		  186-36
(83.8%)
New York182-50
(78.4%)		140-29
(82.8%)		71-23
(75.5%)		34-11
(75.6%)		16-3
(84.2%)		5-3
(62.5%)		1-0
(100%)		  1053-260
(80.2%)
North Carolina103-29
(78%)		111-21
(84.1%)		114-24
(82.6%)		105-25
(80.8%)		46-18
(71.9%)		26-6
(81.3%)		11-5
(68.8%)		5-3
(62.5%)		 851-211
(80.1%)
North Dakota5-0
(100%)		8-5
(61.5%)		3-3
(50%)		2-1
(66.7%)		     24-9
(72.7%)
Ohio319-42
(88.4%)		300-58
(83.8%)		77-22
(77.8%)		37-14
(72.5%)		19-7
(73.1%)		9-4
(69.2%)		5-1
(83.3%)		  1631-361
(81.9%)
Oklahoma87-19
(82.1%)		91-14
(86.7%)		91-19
(82.7%)		54-10
(84.4%)		23-9
(71.9%)		11-5
(68.8%)		6-2
(75%)		2-0
(100%)		 632-123
(83.7%)
Oregon68-16
(81%)		77-12
(86.5%)		60-11
(84.5%)		22-10
(68.8%)		13-11
(54.2%)		8-4
(66.7%)		3-3
(50%)		3-0
(100%)		 442-119
(78.8%)
Pennsylvania246-47
(84%)		214-46
(82.3%)		157-42
(78.9%)		71-17
(80.7%)		26-11
(70.3%)		38-9
(80.9%)		7-3
(70%)		3-1
(75%)		 1481-332
(81.7%)
Rhode Island16-0
(100%)		9-5
(64.3%)		13-4
(76.5%)		6-0
(100%)		11-2
(84.6%)		17-3
(85%)		10-4
(71.4%)		1-0
(100%)		 118-26
(81.9%)
South Carolina83-19
(81.4%)		83-18
(82.2%)		62-19
(76.5%)		33-11
(75%)		17-5
(77.3%)		7-3
(70%)		4-1
(80%)		  526-133
(79.8%)
South Dakota26-2
(92.9%)		23-0
(100%)		15-3
(83.3%)		2-1
(66.7%)		     146-24
(85.9%)
Tennessee120-26
(82.2%)		118-30
(79.7%)		75-13
(85.2%)		34-10
(77.3%)		13-7
(65%)		12-1
(92.3%)		5-0
(100%)		  722-175
(80.5%)
Texas402-76
(84.1%)		374-101
(78.7%)		392-81
(82.9%)		174-49
(78%)		85-34
(71.4%)		43-19
(69.4%)		22-8
(73.3%)		9-5
(64.3%)		5-0
(100%)		2476-645
(79.3%)
Utah37-6
(86%)		24-8
(75%)		13-3
(81.3%)		4-4
(50%)		3-0
(100%)		    176-51
(77.5%)
Vermont8-2
(80%)		8-4
(66.7%)		3-3
(50%)		3-0
(100%)		     50-18
(73.5%)
Virginia121-35
(77.6%)		123-17
(87.9%)		116-29
(80%)		89-17
(84%)		39-11
(78%)		19-4
(82.6%)		9-3
(75%)		5-1
(83.3%)		 811-214
(79.1%)
Washington111-36
(75.5%)		117-30
(79.6%)		57-10
(85.1%)		17-15
(53.1%)		18-2
(90%)		8-2
(80%)		4-1
(80%)		  656-191
(77.4%)
West Virginia47-13
(78.3%)		45-11
(80.4%)		30-8
(78.9%)		22-3
(88%)		11-2
(84.6%)		4-3
(57.1%)		3-0
(100%)		  294-77
(79.2%)
Wisconsin164-33
(83.2%)		117-39
(75%)		16-9
(64%)		9-4
(69.2%)		5-2
(71.4%)		    807-186
(81.3%)
Wyoming19-1
(95%)		6-4
(60%)		4-1
(80%)		      103-21
(83.1%)
Prep Schools31-8
(79.5%)		34-4
(89.5%)		34-3
(91.9%)		17-9
(65.4%)		3-0
(100%)		    142-29
(83%)
 
NATIONAL5161-1111
(82.3%)		4708-1034
(82%)		3446-826
(80.7%)		1888-503
(79%)		882-308
(74.1%)		655-195
(77.1%)		234-83
(73.8%)		60-19
(75.9%)		7-1
(87.5%)		31272-7626
(80.4%)


Note: By comparison, blindly picking the team with the better record (and the home team in case of equal records), would have yielded the following percentage for the part of the season we pick:  68.1%
(In other words, anything up around 75-80% is pretty good, but it's important to understand that it's easy to pick 70% in regular-season high school football, due to the large number of mismatched games.)

out-of-state: 80.9% (in 425 games)