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2003 PROJECTION ACCURACY BREAKDOWN      2002 data




StateWeek -2Week -1Week 0Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7Week 8Week 9Week 10Week 11Week 12Week 13Week 14Week 15TOTALS
Alabama   94-34
(73.4%)
123-32
(79.4%)
129-35
(78.7%)
147-30
(83.1%)
81-16
(83.5%)
141-34
(80.6%)
148-25
(85.5%)
145-27
(84.3%)
80-14
(85.1%)
38-10
(79.2%)
14-10
(58.3%)
5-6
(45.5%)
4-1
(80%)
  1149-274
(80.7%)
Alaska6-3
(66.7%)
8-2
(80%)
7-3
(70%)
6-1
(85.7%)
6-4
(60%)
6-3
(66.7%)
3-2
(60%)
1-0
(100%)
1-0
(100%)
         44-18
(71%)
Arizona   2-4
(33.3%)
34-17
(66.7%)
49-16
(75.4%)
53-15
(77.9%)
31-7
(81.6%)
65-12
(84.4%)
54-16
(77.1%)
54-11
(83.1%)
53-7
(88.3%)
14-7
(66.7%)
8-3
(72.7%)
5-1
(83.3%)
0-2
(0%)
  422-118
(78.1%)
Arkansas    61-22
(73.5%)
66-19
(77.6%)
66-20
(76.7%)
40-9
(81.6%)
78-11
(87.6%)
77-12
(86.5%)
 65-14
(82.3%)
31-12
(72.1%)
19-3
(86.4%)
10-1
(90.9%)
5-1
(83.3%)
0-2
(0%)
 518-126
(80.4%)
California   4-1
(80%)
40-16
(71.4%)
278-148
(65.3%)
352-96
(78.6%)
159-37
(81.1%)
345-112
(75.5%)
366-81
(81.9%)
343-58
(85.5%)
392-75
(83.9%)
347-73
(82.6%)
192-44
(81.4%)
88-29
(75.2%)
40-17
(70.2%)
16-6
(72.7%)
3-1
(75%)
2965-794
(78.9%)
Colorado   41-16
(71.9%)
51-16
(76.1%)
67-11
(85.9%)
60-24
(71.4%)
23-10
(69.7%)
67-15
(81.7%)
67-12
(84.8%)
41-10
(80.4%)
19-7
(73.1%)
8-4
(66.7%)
 1-1
(50%)
   445-126
(77.9%)
Connecticut     26-10
(72.2%)
24-15
(61.5%)
9-3
(75%)
38-9
(80.9%)
40-6
(87%)
38-6
(86.4%)
36-9
(80%)
41-4
(91.1%)
4-5
(44.4%)
34-6
(85%)
8-2
(80%)
3-1
(75%)
 301-76
(79.8%)
Delaware    1-0
(100%)
6-2
(75%)
9-4
(69.2%)
2-2
(50%)
11-4
(73.3%)
9-3
(75%)
14-0
(100%)
10-3
(76.9%)
9-4
(69.2%)
1-2
(33.3%)
3-1
(75%)
   75-25
(75%)
District of Columbia     2-0
(100%)
1-1
(50%)
 3-2
(60%)
2-0
(100%)
1-0
(100%)
3-0
(100%)
1-0
(100%)
 1-0
(100%)
   14-3
(82.4%)
Florida    74-33
(69.2%)
117-47
(71.3%)
134-48
(73.6%)
84-19
(81.6%)
139-37
(79%)
138-45
(75.4%)
141-33
(81%)
131-36
(78.4%)
56-20
(73.7%)
30-13
(69.8%)
16-4
(80%)
4-4
(50%)
3-4
(42.9%)
 1067-343
(75.7%)
Georgia  4-5
(44.4%)
27-13
(67.5%)
87-45
(65.9%)
111-41
(73%)
108-39
(73.5%)
50-8
(86.2%)
121-23
(84%)
119-14
(89.5%)
130-28
(82.3%)
138-22
(86.3%)
94-18
(83.9%)
69-10
(87.3%)
28-11
(71.8%)
13-3
(81.3%)
4-2
(66.7%)
4-1
(80%)
1107-283
(79.6%)
Hawaii   3-1
(75%)
9-2
(81.8%)
9-1
(90%)
10-3
(76.9%)
6-0
(100%)
11-1
(91.7%)
4-1
(80%)
7-4
(63.6%)
2-0
(100%)
 3-2
(60%)
4-0
(100%)
1-1
(50%)
  69-16
(81.2%)
Idaho   4-6
(40%)
21-5
(80.8%)
19-10
(65.5%)
22-4
(84.6%)
10-6
(62.5%)
31-5
(86.1%)
28-6
(82.4%)
12-2
(85.7%)
11-4
(73.3%)
5-2
(71.4%)
1-2
(33.3%)
    164-52
(75.9%)
Illinois  1-0
(100%)
153-62
(71.2%)
166-55
(75.1%)
175-36
(82.9%)
186-43
(81.2%)
66-17
(79.5%)
173-41
(80.8%)
165-30
(84.6%)
79-26
(75.2%)
43-15
(74.1%)
15-12
(55.6%)
1-0
(100%)
3-5
(37.5%)
   1226-342
(78.2%)
Indiana  83-31
(72.8%)
93-24
(79.5%)
92-24
(79.3%)
83-30
(73.5%)
90-25
(78.3%)
42-6
(87.5%)
103-22
(82.4%)
104-18
(85.2%)
51-14
(78.5%)
23-8
(74.2%)
8-1
(88.9%)
4-1
(80%)
3-1
(75%)
   779-205
(79.2%)
Iowa    82-37
(68.9%)
102-25
(80.3%)
99-27
(78.6%)
49-11
(81.7%)
91-31
(74.6%)
107-20
(84.3%)
105-17
(86.1%)
24-7
(77.4%)
16-5
(76.2%)
9-0
(100%)
    684-180
(79.2%)
Kansas    100-36
(73.5%)
92-17
(84.4%)
88-25
(77.9%)
38-14
(73.1%)
87-25
(77.7%)
91-20
(82%)
100-12
(89.3%)
73-10
(88%)
10-4
(71.4%)
7-3
(70%)
3-2
(60%)
   689-168
(80.4%)
Kentucky  38-20
(65.5%)
58-25
(69.9%)
68-23
(74.7%)
67-14
(82.7%)
72-15
(82.8%)
42-4
(91.3%)
79-12
(86.8%)
76-16
(82.6%)
71-16
(81.6%)
48-6
(88.9%)
20-5
(80%)
11-1
(91.7%)
5-1
(83.3%)
3-1
(75%)
  658-159
(80.5%)
Louisiana    85-34
(71.4%)
88-38
(69.8%)
92-34
(73%)
52-11
(82.5%)
104-23
(81.9%)
101-25
(80.2%)
100-26
(79.4%)
112-16
(87.5%)
59-10
(85.5%)
25-9
(73.5%)
15-4
(78.9%)
7-2
(77.8%)
2-3
(40%)
 842-235
(78.2%)
Maine    4-0
(100%)
9-3
(75%)
9-3
(75%)
4-0
(100%)
12-1
(92.3%)
14-0
(100%)
5-1
(83.3%)
8-2
(80%)
2-2
(50%)
2-0
(100%)
    69-12
(85.2%)
Maryland    5-1
(83.3%)
25-9
(73.5%)
55-15
(78.6%)
13-6
(68.4%)
68-7
(90.7%)
56-18
(75.7%)
58-12
(82.9%)
57-15
(79.2%)
20-3
(87%)
4-4
(50%)
5-2
(71.4%)
 1-1
(50%)
 367-93
(79.8%)
Massachusetts     23-8
(74.2%)
24-9
(72.7%)
17-5
(77.3%)
49-8
(86%)
40-13
(75.5%)
43-9
(82.7%)
41-10
(80.4%)
49-3
(94.2%)
4-0
(100%)
48-7
(87.3%)
8-0
(100%)
4-1
(80%)
 350-73
(82.7%)
Michigan   143-68
(67.8%)
174-53
(76.7%)
188-46
(80.3%)
201-34
(85.5%)
94-21
(81.7%)
186-29
(86.5%)
159-37
(81.1%)
68-21
(76.4%)
32-14
(69.6%)
8-5
(61.5%)
 1-2
(33.3%)
   1254-330
(79.2%)
Minnesota   50-18
(73.5%)
85-26
(76.6%)
66-24
(73.3%)
77-17
(81.9%)
40-7
(85.1%)
85-16
(84.2%)
127-33
(79.4%)
17-10
(63%)
11-3
(78.6%)
5-3
(62.5%)
4-0
(100%)
    567-157
(78.3%)
Mississippi   51-23
(68.9%)
67-27
(71.3%)
70-35
(66.7%)
86-24
(78.2%)
48-11
(81.4%)
99-23
(81.1%)
98-19
(83.8%)
84-19
(81.6%)
60-25
(70.6%)
30-8
(78.9%)
17-5
(77.3%)
8-2
(80%)
5-0
(100%)
  723-221
(76.6%)
Missouri    75-26
(74.3%)
94-27
(77.7%)
105-24
(81.4%)
31-12
(72.1%)
110-26
(80.9%)
104-26
(80%)
99-22
(81.8%)
102-28
(78.5%)
27-10
(73%)
16-8
(66.7%)
4-1
(80%)
   767-210
(78.5%)
Montana   28-7
(80%)
31-11
(73.8%)
37-6
(86%)
33-9
(78.6%)
12-3
(80%)
36-5
(87.8%)
13-0
(100%)
3-2
(60%)
3-1
(75%)
2-0
(100%)
     198-44
(81.8%)
Nebraska   1-0
(100%)
85-23
(78.7%)
97-17
(85.1%)
80-27
(74.8%)
44-10
(81.5%)
102-11
(90.3%)
53-4
(93%)
34-5
(87.2%)
15-3
(83.3%)
8-6
(57.1%)
1-2
(33.3%)
    520-108
(82.8%)
Nevada   8-4
(66.7%)
21-5
(80.8%)
22-9
(71%)
22-5
(81.5%)
9-3
(75%)
25-3
(89.3%)
19-9
(67.9%)
14-2
(87.5%)
17-2
(89.5%)
6-0
(100%)
3-2
(60%)
2-0
(100%)
0-1
(0%)
  168-45
(78.9%)
New Hampshire    8-3
(72.7%)
10-4
(71.4%)
12-2
(85.7%)
3-1
(75%)
14-2
(87.5%)
13-3
(81.3%)
13-2
(86.7%)
7-2
(77.8%)
0-3
(0%)
 1-0
(100%)
   81-22
(78.6%)
New Jersey     41-10
(80.4%)
35-13
(72.9%)
21-5
(80.8%)
87-21
(80.6%)
94-18
(83.9%)
83-25
(76.9%)
82-17
(82.8%)
39-15
(72.2%)
18-11
(62.1%)
68-21
(76.4%)
 9-1
(90%)
 577-157
(78.6%)
New Mexico   11-2
(84.6%)
18-9
(66.7%)
21-7
(75%)
22-7
(75.9%)
11-3
(78.6%)
21-7
(75%)
24-8
(75%)
24-8
(75%)
23-3
(88.5%)
14-2
(87.5%)
7-2
(77.8%)
2-0
(100%)
2-1
(66.7%)
  200-59
(77.2%)
New York    57-25
(69.5%)
95-21
(81.9%)
112-40
(73.7%)
23-11
(67.6%)
136-37
(78.6%)
102-31
(76.7%)
65-13
(83.3%)
60-16
(78.9%)
31-4
(88.6%)
12-4
(75%)
6-2
(75%)
   699-204
(77.4%)
North Carolina 16-5
(76.2%)
53-23
(69.7%)
63-17
(78.8%)
51-15
(77.3%)
68-13
(84%)
70-19
(78.7%)
32-7
(82.1%)
70-18
(79.5%)
76-24
(76%)
70-15
(82.4%)
86-20
(81.1%)
38-13
(74.5%)
19-4
(82.6%)
6-3
(66.7%)
5-1
(83.3%)
  723-197
(78.6%)
North Dakota    1-0
(100%)
1-0
(100%)
  1-0
(100%)
1-0
(100%)
3-0
(100%)
3-0
(100%)
2-0
(100%)
     12-
(100%)
Ohio  120-46
(72.3%)
203-59
(77.5%)
227-58
(79.6%)
219-36
(85.9%)
241-60
(80.1%)
100-28
(78.1%)
242-62
(79.6%)
251-69
(78.4%)
68-17
(80%)
33-13
(71.7%)
15-10
(60%)
10-1
(90.9%)
5-2
(71.4%)
   1734-461
(79%)
Oklahoma    88-44
(66.7%)
112-38
(74.7%)
127-25
(83.6%)
58-9
(86.6%)
95-23
(80.5%)
101-14
(87.8%)
102-16
(86.4%)
104-16
(86.7%)
52-7
(88.1%)
20-8
(71.4%)
8-5
(61.5%)
5-2
(71.4%)
1-1
(50%)
 873-208
(80.8%)
Oregon   2-1
(66.7%)
35-15
(70%)
39-22
(63.9%)
50-13
(79.4%)
50-14
(78.1%)
62-14
(81.6%)
64-9
(87.7%)
57-14
(80.3%)
23-6
(79.3%)
9-4
(69.2%)
5-0
(100%)
2-2
(50%)
1-0
(100%)
  399-114
(77.8%)
Pennsylvania   113-46
(71.1%)
56-18
(75.7%)
142-44
(76.3%)
146-43
(77.2%)
68-17
(80%)
156-40
(79.6%)
172-31
(84.7%)
92-22
(80.7%)
14-2
(87.5%)
22-13
(62.9%)
10-5
(66.7%)
15-4
(78.9%)
1-0
(100%)
  1007-285
(77.9%)
Rhode Island     4-2
(66.7%)
7-2
(77.8%)
5-2
(71.4%)
11-3
(78.6%)
11-3
(78.6%)
15-0
(100%)
12-2
(85.7%)
13-3
(81.3%)
4-2
(66.7%)
12-3
(80%)
5-2
(71.4%)
2-2
(50%)
 101-26
(79.5%)
South Carolina  3-0
(100%)
46-25
(64.8%)
61-18
(77.2%)
59-27
(68.6%)
69-15
(82.1%)
36-10
(78.3%)
59-15
(79.7%)
65-13
(83.3%)
68-13
(84%)
51-15
(77.3%)
34-4
(89.5%)
13-6
(68.4%)
8-1
(88.9%)
3-1
(75%)
  575-163
(77.9%)
South Dakota   5-6
(45.5%)
41-14
(74.5%)
17-10
(63%)
19-7
(73.1%)
9-2
(81.8%)
19-2
(90.5%)
18-4
(81.8%)
15-3
(83.3%)
7-3
(70%)
8-1
(88.9%)
     158-52
(75.2%)
Tennessee  8-5
(61.5%)
79-30
(72.5%)
84-23
(78.5%)
85-23
(78.7%)
91-24
(79.1%)
43-15
(74.1%)
92-21
(81.4%)
91-18
(83.5%)
94-20
(82.5%)
53-12
(81.5%)
28-7
(80%)
14-3
(82.4%)
6-2
(75%)
3-1
(75%)
  771-204
(79.1%)
Texas   115-66
(63.5%)
277-125
(68.9%)
329-99
(76.9%)
248-78
(76.1%)
180-49
(78.6%)
376-87
(81.2%)
385-85
(81.9%)
399-67
(85.6%)
388-70
(84.7%)
151-47
(76.3%)
54-15
(78.3%)
42-5
(89.4%)
19-9
(67.9%)
3-0
(100%)
3-2
(60%)
2969-804
(78.7%)
Utah  22-7
(75.9%)
35-3
(92.1%)
29-10
(74.4%)
31-9
(77.5%)
33-7
(82.5%)
5-0
(100%)
28-7
(80%)
34-6
(85%)
 12-3
(80%)
5-3
(62.5%)
3-0
(100%)
    237-55
(81.2%)
Vermont    5-3
(62.5%)
7-2
(77.8%)
10-1
(90.9%)
3-0
(100%)
7-2
(77.8%)
7-2
(77.8%)
2-2
(50%)
2-1
(66.7%)
      43-13
(76.8%)
Virginia   17-12
(58.6%)
38-12
(76%)
43-16
(72.9%)
63-17
(78.8%)
42-17
(71.2%)
81-22
(78.6%)
95-22
(81.2%)
1-1
(50%)
96-27
(78%)
16-4
(80%)
24-5
(82.8%)
10-4
(71.4%)
1-0
(100%)
1-1
(50%)
 528-160
(76.7%)
Washington    56-21
(72.7%)
96-22
(81.4%)
97-26
(78.9%)
53-7
(88.3%)
109-16
(87.2%)
107-18
(85.6%)
103-22
(82.4%)
69-27
(71.9%)
34-7
(82.9%)
14-3
(82.4%)
7-2
(77.8%)
4-0
(100%)
  749-171
(81.4%)
West Virginia   18-8
(69.2%)
20-8
(71.4%)
30-11
(73.2%)
36-12
(75%)
13-7
(65%)
40-6
(87%)
33-9
(78.6%)
31-7
(81.6%)
24-6
(80%)
13-7
(65%)
3-0
(100%)
4-0
(100%)
1-1
(50%)
  266-82
(76.4%)
Wisconsin   100-40
(71.4%)
117-40
(74.5%)
122-36
(77.2%)
122-37
(76.7%)
59-18
(76.6%)
134-25
(84.3%)
132-27
(83%)
80-12
(87%)
23-2
(92%)
0-1
(0%)
6-0
(100%)
    895-238
(79%)
Wyoming   11-10
(52.4%)
19-9
(67.9%)
24-5
(82.8%)
23-4
(85.2%)
7-1
(87.5%)
23-6
(79.3%)
10-6
(62.5%)
6-1
(85.7%)
4-1
(80%)
      127-43
(74.7%)
Prep Schools  0-1
(0%)
0-1
(0%)
1-0
(100%)
1-1
(50%)
2-0
(100%)
1-0
(100%)
10-2
(83.3%)
10-2
(83.3%)
4-1
(80%)
5-0
(100%)
2-0
(100%)
0-1
(0%)
 1-0
(100%)
0-1
(0%)
 37-10
(78.7%)
 
NATIONAL6-3
(66.7%)
24-7
(77.4%)
334-139
(70.6%)
1557-623
(71.4%)
2896-1026
(73.8%)
3682-1132
(76.5%)
3911-1076
(78.4%)
1910-478
(80%)
4301-980
(81.4%)
4253-925
(82.1%)
3233-670
(82.8%)
2777-620
(81.7%)
1449-385
(79%)
685-197
(77.7%)
491-142
(77.6%)
148-53
(73.6%)
49-25
(66.2%)
10-4
(71.4%)
31716-8485
(78.9%)


Note: By comparison, blindly picking the team with the better record (and the home team in case of equal records), would have yielded the following percentage for the season:  70.4%
(In other words, anything up around 75-80% is pretty good, but it's important to understand that it's easy to pick 70% in regular-season high school football, due to the large number of mismatched games.)